Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 8:56 PM   Moonset 5:57 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 242300 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 700 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a strong cold front moved through today, expect cold temperatures tonight with lows in the 20s. Thursday will be dry and sunny, but chilly with highs only in the 40s. Another cold night can be expected Thursday night before a warming trend starts Friday.
Rain chances return Saturday evening and last into early next week, though showers would be on and off in nature and a washout on any particular day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 657 PM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation has come to an end across northern New York and Vermont, replaced by drier and cooler conditions. There continues to be some cloud production out over the forecast area this evening, though the dry air behind a cold front and associated with high pressure will slowly erode these clouds throughout the night. In a similar fashion, dew points have been slower to drop as well, keeping the surface relatively moist this evening, but these will drop tonight and stay down tomorrow. Temperatures are on track in the 30s and 40s, but these will need to be watched over the next few hours as lingering clouds could keep temperatures temporarily milder than anticipated. Still, clearing skies are expected tonight and will allow temperatures to drop into the teens and 20s. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Once today's precipitation comes to an end later this afternoon/evening, we'll see drier weather for a few days. The center of a surface anticyclone will remain to our west overnight tonight into Thursday morning, so expect to see some continued northwesterly breezes 5-15 mph tonight that will diminish towards morning. Temperatures tonight will be cold amid strong post-frontal cold air advection. Lows will reach into the upper teens in the colder hollows of the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, otherwise expect lows in the 20s elsewhere. These values are within a few degrees of record minimums for some sites, but at this point no record lows are forecast to be broken. The growing season has not yet begun, but anyone with early vulnerable crops should take precautions to protect them for the next couple of nights, especially in places of higher elevation where the coldest temperatures are expected.

The center of the high pressure system will gradually edge closer Thursday, allowing for a sunny but chilly spring day with diminishing winds. High temperatures will only top out in the 40s for much of the area, which is a good 10+ degrees below seasonable normals for this time of year. Dewpoints are forecast in the single digits to teens during the afternoon, which will result in minimum relative humidities between 25 and 35 percent. Despite the low relative humidities, winds will be light enough to preclude fire weather concerns.

The center of the high will shift directly overhead by Thursday night, setting up ideal radiational cooling conditions. Have continued to trend towards the NBM 10th percentile temperature forecast. Another cold night can be expected with lows in the low to upper 20s...with some isolated lows in the teens possible in the colder hollows.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A high pressure system moving into the Labrador Sea will be controlling our weather for the end of the week, with Friday looking like a great day to be outside. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise rapidly through the morning hours, reaching into upper 50s in valley locations. Clouds will begin to move in during the overnight hours, keeping temperatures near climatological normal values.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A series of shortwaves will make their way over the northeast throughout the remainder of the forecast period, bringing a chance of rain every single day of the long term forecast. The western edge of our CWA could see rain as early as 18z Saturday, with the highest pops occurring just after 00z. By Monday and Tuesday, we'll start seeing above normal temperatures. The current high temperature forecast shows widespread 70s reaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley all the way into the Northeast Kingdom.
The additional thermodynamic instability associated with this warming trend could lead to thunderstorm activity in the afternoon of both days.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...A sharp cold front continues to move through Vermont, just poised to exit to our east over the next couple of hours. As the front moves through, expect a winds to quickly shift out of the north, gusting to 15 to 30 mph for the remainder of the evening. As temperatures rapidly fall along and behind the front, rain showers are transitioning to a brief rain/snow mix behind the front. Showers and MVFR conditions will only continue for a few more hours before drier air moves in and precipitation comes to an end. Expect skies across the forecast area to be VFR by 00Z, and remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Min Temp Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 04-25 20|1919 17|1965 21|1974 23|2003 10|1956 04-26 20|1919 22|1967 22|1972 23|1972 12|1919

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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