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Marine Weather and Tides Jericho, VT Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES 10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

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Sunrise 5:15AM

Sunset 8:23PM

Thursday May 23, 2019 12:38 AM EDT (04:38 UTC)

Moonrise 12:03AM

Moonset 9:17AM

Illumination 83%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jericho, VT

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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT

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Fxus61 kbtv 230131 afdbtv area forecast discussion national weather service burlington vt 931 pm edt Wed may 22 2019 Synopsis Quiet weather is on tap for tonight with high clouds remaining entrenched across the region. This will help keep temperatures warmer than last night with most places bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s. Active weather returns on Thursday as strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers will continue through Thursday night into Friday morning before dissipating following the passage of a cold front. Dry weather is expected on Friday with another round of showers expected on Saturday. The second half of the memorial day weekend looks be great with highs in the 70 with clearing skies. Near term through Thursday night As of 931 pm edt Wednesday... Quick update to add in the chance for some sprinkles this evening through early overnight. Radar coverage has increased quite a bit in the last 2 hours with a few upstream obs showing very light rain. Surface dewpoint depressions are still very large in the 15-25 degree range so feel most of the radar echos are likely virga, but can't rule out some sprinkles or a quick shower. Otherwise, remainder of the forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion After a sunny start to the day, cirrus clouds have moved into much of the north country out ahead of convection currently going on across the ohio river valley. This should limit additional diurnal heating with highs across much of the north country capping out in the lower to upper 60s. The clouds cover will remain entrenched across the region which will help limit radiational cooling as lows on drop into the mid to upper 40s. Quiet weather is expected to continue through Thursday morning with both mid-level and upper-level heights increasing. As this happens, a developing a potent shortwave will take aim at the north country with a deepening low level circulation and frontal boundary developing just ahead of the shortwave. Throughout the day on Thursday, temperatures will warm pretty quickly into the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies with strong warm air advection in the lowest levels. This will advect an elevated mixed layer into the region Thursday morning which should help inhibit any shower activity through the morning hours especially when coupled with the anti-cyclonic flow aloft. It doesn't look like we are going to see enough heating to mix out the elevated mixed layer but with several rounds of forcing expected through the afternoon and evening hours, storms are still expected to develop. The first round will be around 21z across northern new york when a pre-frontal trough moves through the region. At this point, we will see the maximum instability of around 750-1000 j kg of CAPE with 60 knots of bulk shear. This should help to develop some discrete cells (possibly a supercell or two) right along the axis of forcing. The 850 mb trough follows the pre-frontal trough by 2 hours with the surface front not expected to actually push through until well after sunset. If the first round of convection does fire as expected, the 850 mb trough and surface cold front should pass through the region rather uneventfully. However, if the EML provides to be a stronger than expected deterrent, convection will be delayed until about 00z as further erosion of the low level inversion is expected. Nevertheless, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms does exist for Thursday, especially over northern new york. If a cold pool can get established and a linear MCS develops, models show vectors between 60-70 knots which could cause very fast storm motions that could yield widespread strong winds. Models aren't very supportive of this at the moment but the threat does exist. The best instability axis will be present across northern new york and should be the focus for convection tomorrow. Equilibrium levels should be fairly low (around 22,000 ft) which models prog to be about -25 degrees c. This should limit the potential for large hail with steep low level lapse rates and dry air entrainment in the mid levels favoring strong winds as storms collapse or if they evolve into an mcs Thursday night. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop should quickly move east through the night on Thursday with widespread rainfall amounts a third of an inch or less. As with all thunderstorms, the potential

for locally higher amounts exist but lower than favorable pwat's should limit how much rainfall any location will receive. Following the cold front, gusty northwest winds will develop Thursday night with showers becoming more orographic with good upslope flow and cooler temperatures aloft aiding in steepening the low and mid level lapse rates. Short term Friday through Friday night As of 331 pm edt Wednesday... No real changes made from previous forecast. Lingering upslope showers remain through the morning hours Friday before diminishing towards afternoon. As low pressure pulls off to the east, pressure gradient remains over the area so expect gusty northwest winds turning north northeast during the daytime hours with afternoon mixing bringing wind gusts between 20-25 knots. High temperatures will be in mid to upper 60s under partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50 with increasing clouds. Friday night will be dry but our next system is approaching quickly from the west for Saturday. Long term Saturday through Wednesday As of 331 pm edt Wednesday... The active pattern continues as high pressure anchored across the southeast directs storm systems over our area. Another front will approach the area during the day on Saturday. Still some timing differences between the models but consensus is good on strong moisture plume coming up from gulf of mexico with pwat values across the area between 1.5-1.75". Cloud depths are around 11,000 ft so expecting efficient rain produces, especially given juicy pwats. The dynamics thermodynamics are not overly impressive for a convective weather threat so have omitted thunder from forecast given CAPE values less than 200 j kg and weak shortwave energy. As front kicks through, another piece of vorticity grazes the area. 925mb temperatures >14c on Sunday will see temps climb into the mid 70s, with the potential for near 80 across some valley locations. With daytime heating and falling heights aloft, a few convective showers and rumbles of thunders may be possible, but not expecting any strong or severe storms. After this, the active pattern remains with a series of troughs rounding the ridge across the southeastern us through much of next week. Therefore have continued the idea of near normal temperatures and chances for precipitation. Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the next 24 hours with mid clouds streaming over the area through 06z before scattering out towards sunrise. Clouds will then thicken and lower mid-day into tomorrow afternoon as a cold front and potential convection approach. Winds slacken overnight to less than 4kts then strengthen from the southwest with gusts up to 20 knots at most terminals by 18z. Outlook... Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra, slight chance tsra. Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra. Friday night:VFR. Chance shra. Saturday:VFR. Chance shra. Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely shra. Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shra, slight chance tsra. Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx. Memorial day:VFR. Chance shra. Btv watches warnings advisories Vt... None. Ny... None. Synopsis... Clay near term... Clay lahiff short term... Larocca long term... Larocca aviation... Lahiff

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT	8 mi	45 min	SSW 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	57°F	41°F	55%	1022.7 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT	21 mi	45 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	51°F	45°F	80%	1023.2 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.