Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:42PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:03PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, VT
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location: 44.49, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 201119
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
719 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front dropping southward out of canada will bring a chance of
showers to northern areas this evening through midnight, with high
pressure returning for Thursday and Friday. Unsettled conditions are
expected for the weekend with periods of rain likely, along with the
chance for a few rumbles of thunder.

Near term through Thursday
As of 333 am edt Wednesday... Main weather feature of interest
for the next 36 hours will be a cold front dropping southward
from canada this evening through the overnight hours. Ahead of
the front, mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected for
today with temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Cold front approaches the
international border around sunset with the latest 00z cam
models indicating a little more instability and forcing compared
to previous runs so have bumped up pops into the 30-50% range
across northern areas through midnight. Instability is only on
order of a couple hundred j kg of CAPE through about 02z so
included just a slight chance of thunder along the border
through that time. Otherwise, convective activity fizzles as it
moves south after sunset so central and southern areas will
likely remain dry. There will be a marked increase in sky cover
with the frontal passage which will help to keep overnight temps
milder than the previous night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

For Thursday, high pressure returns behind the departing front
with northerly flow in the low mid levels keeping temps on the
cool side back in the upper 60s to low 70s despite full
sunshine.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 333 am edt Wednesday... The Thursday night thru Friday
night period will feature generally tranquil weather as sfc high
pressure builds from sern ontario swrn quebec esewd across
northern new england, and eventually into the canadian maritimes
by Friday aftn into Friday night. Should see good radiational
cooling conditions with light winds and clear skies Thursday
night. Lows generally mid-upr 40s, but would anticipate some upr
30s in the normally colder locations within the NRN adirondack
region and across sheltered locations of far nern vt. Should see
a moderating air mass on Friday as south winds develop around
10 mph. Relatively low humidity levels (2-m dewpoints in the upr
40s to lower 50s) will continue, but high temperatures will be
warmer on Friday, reaching the upr 70s to lower 80s. Will begin
to see some fringe effects of closed 700-500mb low expected
across the ohio valley Friday night. As this system slowly
shifts newd, increasing cloudiness is expected Friday night. The
00z ECMWF suggests associated precipitation remains south and
west of our region Friday night, but the 00z GFS is a bit
quicker to bring potential rain showers into NRN ny after
midnight. At this point, indicated just 20-30 pops for franklin
ny and st. Lawrence counties during the pre-dawn period
Saturday. The increasing cloud cover will result in milder
overnight temperatures, with pre-dawn lows mainly in the 50s,
except near 60f for the st. Lawrence valley.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 333 am edt Wednesday... Both the 00z ECMWF gfs suggest
unsettled weather this weekend as mid- level low over the ohio
valley is forecast to become an open wave and lift newd across
ny state on Saturday, and eventually across NRN new england for
Saturday night. A second mid-level trough in nwly flow moves
across the north country late Sunday into early Monday, with the
potential for additional scattered showers. Precipitable water
values will be moderately high but not excessive. Unlike the 2"+
pw experienced this past Monday, will see values 1.5-1.7" in
advance of the ohio valley system for Saturday. Overall, present
indications suggest cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates
will keep instability low (sbcape < 1000 j kg). Anticipate
widespread showers Saturday, and included a chance of embedded
thunderstorms west of the green mtns, including the champlain
valley and all of NRN ny (slight chance TSTM east of the green
mtns). Severe storms not currently expected. Highs on Saturday
mainly in the 70s. Maintained 60-80 pops for Saturday night with
lows in the upr 50s to lower 60s. May see a break in the shower
activity on Sunday - especially during the morning hrs - but
with trailing shortwave trough approaching from sern ontario,
should see another period of widespread showers late Sunday into
Sunday night early Monday. Gradual clearing is anticipated
Monday night into Tuesday. Highs on Monday only in the lower
70s, but increased prospects for sunshine should result in highs
in the 75-80f range for valley locations on Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 12z Thursday... Lingering ifr fog at kmpv and kslk
will lift within the hour with conditions largelyVFR through
the period. Scattered cirrus and perhaps a few fair weather
cumulus will stream across the region through the day before a
low mid level deck increases from the north from late afternoon
onward as a cold front approaches. Could see a few showers
along the international border to the adirondacks and central
vermont from sunset through midnight, with brief reductions in
vsby possible. Any shower activity wanes after midnight with a
slow clearing occurring from north to south towards sunrise.

Outlook...

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Likely shra, chance tsra.

Saturday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Likely shra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Likely shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Lahiff
short term... Banacos
long term... Banacos
aviation... Lahiff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 20 mi39 min SW 12 G 14 62°F 64°F1 ft53°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT5 mi30 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F52°F59%1011.8 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY16 mi31 minSE 710.00 miFair64°F55°F75%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
G20
N13N14
G19
N14N13
G18
N10N13
G16
N10N10N8NW6NW4CalmSE3CalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmE3S8S9
1 day agoS11
G19
S13
G21
S9S10CalmN7
G25
S4S5CalmCalmW9N9W9N10N5N5CalmN11N6N8N15N13
G18
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G23
N13
2 days agoS6S9SW7S8S8S6S10S7S9S6S7S6S6S9S8S11S9S11S13S11
G18
S15
G22
S11
G19
S11
G21
S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.