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FXUS61 KBTV 240237 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1037 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue this evening before rain moves back into the region tonight and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday, and a brief period of snow is possible as precipitation tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal for the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return later Saturday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1034 PM EDT Tuesday...Main change was to warm temperatures overnight which continue to be slow to cool given overcast and lowering skies. Otherwise, the forecast is in great shape with showers moving into northern New York and light rain finally falling. This lighter rain will break for a short duration later tonight before better forcing moves in with periodic moderate rainfall intensity.

Previous Discussion...Dry conditions persist across the region this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed well into the 60s under bright sunshine and ample mixing. Mixing has been deeper than anticipated, which has also allowed dewpoints to lower into the low/mid 20s to around 30F. The result is relative humidity values in the 20 to 30% range in many spots. The deep mixing has also made for gusty south winds, particularly in the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley, where gusts of 30-35 mph have been recorded.
These conditions will continue into the late afternoon/early evening, though moisture will gradually be increasing ahead of our next system. Winds will abate as the sunsets, though will still remain gusty to 20-25 mph or so. See the Fire Weather section below or our Special Weather Statement issued earlier today for additional details.

After today's fire weather concerns, the focus turns toward a strong cold front which will cross the region on Wednesday. Showers associated with moisture streaming out ahead of this front are already approaching our region from the west, and will overspread the region overnight tonight. It will take a little while for lower levels to saturate, so radar may look a little more threatening than what is actually occurring early in the evening. However, expect just about everyone to get in on the rain by daybreak Wednesday, with the bulk falling from the Champlain Valley westward.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s overnight, with some upper 30s sneaking into the St Lawrence Valley as the front starts to move into the region.

The front will push through quickly during the day on Wednesday, ushering in a cold and dry airmass. Temperatures will likely fall quite sharply as the front moves through, perhaps as much as 5-10 degrees in just an hour or two. Hence rain will at least mix with snow as temperatures plummet into the mid/upper 30s, with higher elevations likely seeing at least a brief period of all snow. Ground surfaces will be warm, so while snow could come down hard enough to accumulate briefly, it will likely quickly melt, especially paved surfaces. Drier air will rapidly follow the frontal passage, which quickly ending precipitation from west to east as temperatures cool.
So any period of snow should be fairly short-lived as well, as precipitation should end by sunset or so. So the period of snow or rain/snow mix will be short, and this with warm surface temperatures will keep any accumulation that does occur minimal, with most spots seeing only a half inch or less, if they get any real accumulation at all. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest behind the front as well, and could see some gusts of 30+ mph with or just behind the front.

Skies will clear quickly Wednesday evening as much drier air works into the region. Dewpoints will drop into the teens and even single digits overnight, and winds will become light as ridging builds into the region. So looking at a good radiational cooling night, with lows anticipated to range from the upper teens in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to the mid 20s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Another seasonably cool day can be expected Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to around 50.
Despite the cold temperatures however, we'll see plenty of sun as the center of a surface anticyclone shifts nearer. Winds will be generally 5-10 mph from the northwest, becoming light and variable overnight once the center of the high crests overhead. Have hedged towards the lower side of guidance for overnight lows for Thursday night with light winds and clear skies...ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the 20s for most of the area, which is a good 10 degrees below normal values for this time of year. Given that the growing season has not yet begun anywhere in our forecast area, no frost/freeze headlines needed, but early gardeners with vulnerable outdoor plants should take precautions to protect against a potential frost/freeze Thursday night.
Temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid 20s for the northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, and drop to the upper 20s to around 30 in the valleys.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday will be a beautiful day with noticeably warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Temperatures will start off quite chilly in the morning, but will quickly climb into the 50s/low 60s for afternoon highs. Minimum relative humidities will drop to around 30 to 40 percent by Friday afternoon, but light winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

The warming trend will continue into the weekend as return southerly flow develops and increases. At this point, Saturday morning looks dry with an upper-level ridge cresting overhead. Southerly winds will begin to increase during the day Saturday along with increasing cloud cover as the ridge shifts east and shortwave energy approaches from the west. Expect chances for showers to increase as we head into the evening as the ridge flattens and upper- level shortwaves roll overtop the ridge. It's too early to get too specific with the timing of the shortwaves and the associated rainfall going into early next week, but at least some showers can be expected Sunday through Wednesday. Have stayed close to NBM for precipitation forecast. Given the showery conditions early next week, fire weather concerns are low from Sunday onward. As temperatures climb into the low 70s early next week, will see the development of some instability during the afternoons, and can't rule out some isolated rumbles of thunder.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight and tonight as a strong cold front moves through the region. Clouds are currently overspreading from west to east, and VFR conditions to start will become MVFR as ceilings gradually lower by around 02-06Z Wednesday for New York sites, then 06-12Z for others. In addition to ceilings 1000-3000 feet above ground level, rain showers will accompany this cold front, reducing visibilities at times to 5-6 miles before turning to rain/snow mix or even snow briefly, which could be accompanied by 3-4 miles vis or lower. IFR ceilings and vis are most likely at SLK and MSS, but could occur sporadically at several sites from 07-18Z Wednesday, mainly in snow. Gusty winds will begin to decrease over the next few hours at most sites, turning with the frontal passage. Starting south/southwesterly, winds will turn northwesterly throughout the night/tomorrow morning, depending on the site. Winds will begin to gust again 12-17Z Wednesday to 15-25 knots, especially as precipitation comes to an end later in the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather will continue through this afternoon, with relative humidity values improving gradually toward evening. Abundant sunshine has warmed us well into 60s with large dewpoint depressions, and relative humidity values are generally 25 to 30 percent in most areas, with the exception of the southern St Lawrence Valley where moisture is increasing ahead of our next system. Winds have been gusty out of the south, with gusts of 30 to 35 being reported in portions of the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley. We have hit red flag conditions in many spots this afternoon based on our local criteria (25+ mph winds and RH below 30%), and while conditions will gradually improve this evening, the Special Weather Statement for heightened fire weather concerns remains valid for much of the region through 8 pm. Please visit or contact your local forestry or environmental protection services for additional information. Remember, the state of New York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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