Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:21PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:28 PM EST (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 7:59PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, VT
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location: 44.49, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 212018
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
318 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Milder but breezy weather is expected for this afternoon with
highs in ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. A cold front will
move through the region late tonight and Wednesday, bringing
scattered rain and snow showers. Thanksgiving day is expected to
be dry with temperatures in the 30s.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 318 pm est Tuesday... After a mild afternoon with high
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, a cold front will
approach the region from the west overnight reaching the st
lawrence valley around 09z, then moving east into the champlain
valley just after 12z, and ct valley by 16z. A band of
precipitation will accompany the front and boundary layer
temperatures should be warm enough to support mainly just rain
showers as 925mb temps don't drop below 0c until the front
passes. It should be cold enough in the higher elevations to
support a change to snow showers as the front moves by. Not
expecting much in the way of rain or snow accumulation with
perhaps a tenth or two of QPF mainly rain, but mainly snow at
the mountain summits for 1-3" above 3000 ft and an inch or less
down to the bases of the mountains as temperatures drop.

Tomorrow morning any lingering orographically driven rain snow
showers in the valleys and snow showers in the higher terrain
will gradually wind down during the afternoon. Expecting
temperatures to hold fairly steady from around 30 in the
adirondacks to 40 in the valleys before falling again toward
dark.

Should be quiet Wednesday night as a weak ridge of high pressure
builds in from the west and height rise aloft. Still could be
some pesky clouds hanging on in the mountains with low temps
ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s depending upon cloud
cover.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 318 pm est Tuesday... 12z guidance still all indicate that
turkey day daytime will be uneventful weatherwise. Ridge of
surface high pressure over the area will keep us dry. However,
clouds will be on the increase as a weak upper trough and
surface cold front quickly approaches from the west. With 925mb
temperatures around -5c, daytime highs will be seasonably cool
and generally in the low-mid 30s.

The surface high moves off to the east as the trough and cold
front approaches, and causes the low mid level flow to become
more southwesterly. The trough and relatively cold air aloft
will help to activate some lake effect snow showers off lake
ontario late in the day and during the evening. With the
southwest flow, expect snow showers to push into the st lawrence
valley and western part of the 'dacks. This moisture will also
get entrained into the overall trough and advected toward
northern vermont during the overnight hours. Have used a blend
of guidance for the precipitation probability forecasts, with a
little extra detail in timing placement via the btv 4km wrf
output, resulting in roughly 30- 45% pops across parts of
northern ny diminishing to 15-25% for the higher terrain of
northern vermont. Net result is that we'll probably see about 1"
of snow across parts of northern ny, with just a coating in
northern vt at best.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 318 pm est Tuesday... While the long term period continues
to look active, there are no really no big systems on the
horizon to speak of. The tail end of a decaying cold front will
bring some scattered snow showers to the region Thursday night
into Friday morning, followed by brief high pressure for the
remainder of Friday into early Friday night. The weekend
continues to look unsettled, but the latest trends are for one
area of low pressure to track well north of the region, and
another well offshore on Saturday, both delivering limited
impacts to the northeast. The best chance for precipitation
actually now appears to be post-frontal passage Saturday
afternoon night and through the weekend where upslope flow will
enhance snow shower activity across the higher elevations. It
will be noticeably warmer for Friday and Saturday though with
deep southwesterly flow developing aloft. Highs should bump into
the 30s 40s before falling back into the 20s 30s for
Sunday Monday as the upper trough settles overhead.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR but with south to southwest winds
gusting 25-35 kt until just before sunset. Clouds and rain showers
will begin to move into the area from the west tonight ahead of
a cold front reaching near btv near 12z with ceilings lowering
to MVFR. Winds will be shifting to wnw around 10 kt behind the
front and falling temperatures will bring a change to snow
showers and ifr vsby mainly at slk tonight and mpv tomorrow
morning. Not expecting much of accumulation but could be a
coating at slk.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night: MVFR. Chance shsn.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance shsn.

Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Saturday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shsn, chance
shra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shsn.

Marine
As of 318 pm est Tuesday... Lake wind advisory in effect for
south winds 20-30 kts with gusts to 35 knots with significant
wave heights 3 to 6 ft through the evening hours. Gusty south
winds will gradually diminish overnight then shift to the west
then northwest at 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Sisson
near term... Sisson
short term... Nash
long term... Nash
aviation... Sisson
marine... Sisson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT5 mi35 minS 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F23°F31%1009.8 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY16 mi36 minS 10 G 1710.00 miFair49°F25°F39%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmE5E4E6E3CalmCalmSE3CalmS9S7S10S12
G20
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G27
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G38
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1 day agoW11
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NW7NW13
G20
NW12W11
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NW10W10
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W9NW13NW8NW13
G19
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NW854E4E3CalmNE3
2 days agoS8S7S8E5E5E5CalmE3SE6SE6S8S7S12E3S6S6SW7W16
G25
NW20
G31
NW16
G29
W14
G22
NW16
G22
NW16
G24
NW12
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.