Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:03 AM EDT (08:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:201905262015;;476682 Fzus63 Kdtx 260734 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 334 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure averaging 30.10 inches will travel from the northern plains into the great lakes region today. High pressure to hold through the weekend until low pressure averaging 29.60 inches moves across the midwest into northern lower michigan early next week. Lhz361>363-262015- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 334 am edt Sun may 26 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet until early morning.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260732
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
332 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Discussion
Early morning surface analysis showing a weak frontal boundary
slowly sagging southeast across north-central lower mi. A modestly
moist pre-frontal environment maintaining residence immediately
downstream locally, as dewpoints continue to hover mainly in the
lower 60s. This boundary remains forecast to settle into southeast
michigan during the daylight period, the process sustained as weak
height falls continue beneath a 140 knot upper jet core anchored
across the northern great lakes. As the boundary becomes
increasingly parallel to the mean westerly flow, this southward
migration will effectively slow, leaving the boundary fixated
somewhere between the ohio border and the m-59 corridor during the
late day period. Initial remnant convective debris from nocturnal
activity upstream largely expected to pass by to south this morning,
but may allow for a few showers to glance across southern sections.

A period of weak low-mid level frontal convergence in the presence
of favorable entrance region upper jet support will then work to
initiate a swath of convection during the afternoon early evening
hours, mainly south of the i-69 corridor. Initial development
tending to be elevated - particularly with northward extent, but
with increasing potential for some surface based convection to take
hold south of the boundary as MLCAPE lifts in excess of 1000 j kg.

Projected thermodynamic and kinematic profiles do suggest a window
for greater convection organization and an accompanying stronger
wind gust hail risk will exist, mainly ann arbor-detroit corridor
southward. Highs today primarily low to mid 70s, exception across the
eastern thumb where onshore flow will hold readings in 60s.

Gradual southward expansion of surface ridging and renewed light
northeast flow will finally ease the boundary south of the region
tonight. The ensuing post-frontal dry air advection within low level
anticyclonic flow will ensure benign conditions with a high degree
of stability lasting through much - if not all of the Monday period.

Assuming upstream convective debris hangs to the west, looking at a
window of nearly full insolation early on during the holiday. A
moderately mixed profile of a cooler resident airmass will yield
afternoon temperatures generally in the vicinity of 70 degrees. Once
again, the onshore flow will provide a noteworthy difference for
areas closer to the shorelines - afternoon readings holding in the
low to mid 60s in these locales.

Another potentially robust period of warm air advection set to
expand across lower michigan during the Monday night period. Renewed
deep layer southwest flow along the backside of the quasi-stationary
southeast CONUS upper ridge will drive an energetic elevated warm
frontal zone northeast, accompanied by a deep plume of moisture and
associated rapid reduction of mid level stability. The net result is
an expanding corridor of elevated convection, with low level jet
orientation directing this activity into the area overnight.

Potential exists for a shortwave transiting the ridge periphery to
augment the underlying ascent, which increases the possibility of
seeing another round of locally heavy rainfall during this time.

Southeast michigan will remain within a potentially active, yet
complex pattern during the Tuesday-Wednesday periods. A generally
seasonable thermal and moisture profile will offer episodic shower
and thunderstorm chances during this window, with the exact timing
and scale dictated by still ill-defined sources of forcing
frontal boundaries, decaying mcs, etc . Greater potential would
seemingly focus within the Wednesday period, owing to the increasing
likelihood for a meaningful cold frontal passage with accompanying
strong heights falls during this time.

Marine
Thunderstorms will be possible over the southern marine zones of
lakes saint clair and erie this afternoon although the attendant
severe threat will be substantially reduced compared to yesterday.

Light onshore winds on Monday will be followed by a lower
thunderstorm threat after sunset Monday evening and renewed severe t-
storm potential both Tuesday and Wednesday. Light to moderate wind
prevails throughout this time with seasonable significant wave
heights under 3 feet.

Hydrology
The same airmass that produced yesterday afternoon's thunderstorms
will be suppressed nearer the ohio border today, where afternoon t-
storms for roughly the detroit area and points south will be capable
of producing rainfall of a similar magnitude and duration. An
organized mid-level wave will transit the central great lakes region
late Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms during Monday night.

There is some potential for this activity to organize into a band of
moderate to heavy rain capable of producing basin average rainfall
totals of at least one half inch.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1138 pm edt Sat may 25 2019
aviation...

the jet stream overhead will become more zonally orientated
overnight. This will suppress geopotential heights over the central
great lakes causing cold front to sag backdoor through the area
overnight. Persistence of strong s.E. U.S. Ridging will cause the
front to hang up immediately south of metro detroit or the mi oh
state line for Sunday. Latest model trends show increasing
confidence in elevated shower and thunderstorm activity tracking
across the southern half of the cwa. Uncertainty in timing exists,
but for now introduced shower and vcts between 18-23z. Low
confidence exists because of reliance on convective generated
shortwave. However, entrance region dynamics are supportive for
synoptic scale ascent Sunday. Relatively weak easterly winds Sunday,
but potential does exist for sustained winds to exceed 7 knots.

For dtw...VFR skies tonight with low potential for MVFR vsby
restrictions overnight due to br hz.VFR CIGS throughout Sunday with
precipitation remaining south of dtw Sunday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for CIGS of 5kft or less early Sunday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
aviation... ..Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi24 min WNW 3.9 G 7.8 44°F 37°F1013.7 hPa42°F
KP58 41 mi13 min NW 4.1 56°F 1013.1 hPa51°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi34 min N 8.9 G 12 56°F 52°F1014.2 hPa49°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi24 min N 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi73 minVar 4 mi54°F52°F93%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
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1 day agoW3NW6NW6N4NW4NW5NW5N5NE6CalmNE4E3E8E11SE4SE6E11SE7SE5SE6SE7S7S7
G14
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2 days ago6Calm5S5S6SW11
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G26
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NW11NW6NW8W6W6W7W6NW8NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.