Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:13PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:37 AM EST (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ363 Expires:201901172115;;481455 Fzus63 Kdtx 170855 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 355 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.40 inches, will continue to build across the area through today before another cold front moves through the region early Friday. Another much stronger arctic cold front will then surge into the area late this weekend, bringing gusty north wind, building waves and freezing spray. Lhz362-363-172115- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 355 am est Thu jan 17 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west after midnight...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. A chance of snow until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow early in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the evening. A chance of snow until late afternoon. Heavy freezing spray late in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. Heavy freezing spray. A chance of snow. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots early in the evening becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. Heavy freezing spray early in the morning. A chance of snow after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the evening...then building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 170854
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
354 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Discussion
Upper level clouds are moving in over lower michigan ahead of a weak
shortwave and associated low pressure system tracking out of the
central plains. This system will be driven eastward under westerly
flow aloft as the base of a broader trough rotates over the hudson
bay. Generally light snowfall will accompany this system as it passes
with better snow banding along the northern end of this low pressure
system moving across lower michigan. Leading edge of snowfall will
start working into lenawee county by late morning with bulk of the
snowfall falling after 12pm into the evening. Amounts will be
generally less than an inch with higher end amounts along the oh mi
border with less accumulation potential north of the m-59 corridor.

A weak frontal boundary will slide through michigan in the wake of
the passes system to the south and result in chicanes for light snow
showers tonight.

Subtle height rises under northerly flow will be brief, but it will
bring fairly quiet conditions on Friday. The arctic high pressure
will be looming over the north great lakes region. With the colder
air off to the north, high temperatures on Friday will come in
around the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Main story this weekend is a more impactful winter system bringing
snowfall late Friday night through Saturday and the arrival of very
cold temperatures. A piece of energy diving out of the pac NW and
undergo lee cyclogenesis across the southern plains interacting with
a potent subtropical jet. This system will be lifting northward
through the oh tn valleys while leading edge of arctic front begins
slowly advancing across michigan. The lead fgen band ahead of the
main surface low will be responsible for the snowfall encroaching
upon the area late Friday night into Saturday. Trends with this
system have been for a more southern progressive track of the
surface low and better phasing of this wave with the northern jet
more towards the northeastern us. Thus, keeping the better theta-e
and highest QPF amounts to the south and east. There still remains
some differences in forecast QPF amounts, which will make the
difference in total snowfall as snow ratios will be around 20:1.

The greater snowfall potential would focus amounts generally south
of m-59 where several inches will be possible. The higher snowfall
potential in the 3-6 inch range will be possible along the oh mi
border if higher QPF ends up verifying, so fine tuning of the qpf
will be needed as we near the event. Leading edge of the arctic air
will already be pushing in under northeast flow during the day
Saturday, bringing high temperatures in the teens to 20s.

The back edge of snowfall will taper off Saturday night as the
system pushes into the northeastern us leaving some lake effect snow
potential off of lake huron under ne-n flow across the thumb into
Sunday morning. The coldest arctic air this winter season will then
release into michigan Sunday afternoon. Temperatures at 850 mb will
tank to around -25c by Sunday evening. Gusty northerly winds during
the day will make for a brisk day with high temperatures in the
teens and wind chill values below zero all day Sunday.

Late Sunday night and Monday morning will experience the lowest wind
chills from this arctic surge with wind chills bottoming out in the
negative teens by around midnight and continuing to around daybreak.

Thermal trough containing the arctic air over the region will be
pulled to the east as the axis pivots into the eastern great lakes.

High pressure will then build into the central great lakes keeping
things dry, but cold weather remains. High temperatures struggle to
recover Monday and only reach back into the teens with morning low
temperatures of around 0 degrees.

Slight recovery to more normal temperatures in the 20s and low 30s
for Tuesday with exiting arctic air to the east. There will be a
chance for another shot at snowfall during the mid week time frame.

Troughing digging across the central us will also bring another
opportunity for arctic air to spill through northern plains and
eventually into the great lakes.

Marine
Winds will become southerly today as surface high pressure retreats
to quebec and portions of the northeast united states. Wind gusts
will remain largely below 20 knots. A broad and weak surface trough,
with a pair of low pressure centers will pass directly through the
great lakes region by this evening. A cold front will eventually
push down through lake huron Friday morning. Winds will respond to
the northwest with winds remaining at 25 knots or less. A stronger
winter storm system will track along the tennessee river valley this
weekend. A long duration of northeasterly winds is anticipated both
Saturday and Sunday. Marine headlines will likely be needed for both
lake st clair and the michigan waters of lake erie during that
timeframe.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1157 pm est Wed jan 16 2019
aviation...

light wind is quickly veering toward the east as high pressure exits
the central great lakes during the night. Slightly ahead of
schedule, the easterly component of low level wind is already
bringing patches of stratocu from lake erie into the dtw area. The
clouds are borderlineVFR MVFR initially and then gradually lower
farther into MVFR toward sunrise before spreading northward during
the morning and then persisting through afternoon. Light snow moves
in by late afternoon and produces minimal accumulation mainly south
of ptk with only flurries toward fnt and mbs through Thursday
evening.

For dtw... Pockets of stratocu from lake erie got a jump on early
easterly flow development during late evening. Expect intervals of
borderlineVFR MVFR ceiling to fill in and then lower into MVFR
toward sunrise. MVFR ceiling persists through afternoon with
visibility reduced by light snow moving in late and producing about
a half inch of accumulation. The combination of snow and lower
ceiling result in ifr conditions into Thursday evening as low
pressure moves near the ohio border.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight trending to high
toward sunrise through Thursday evening.

* high for snow as precipitation type during afternoon and Thursday
evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi47 min SW 4.1 14°F 1028 hPa7°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi38 min WSW 5.1 G 6 16°F 32°F1026.7 hPa (+0.0)7°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi58 min N 2.9 G 4.1 11°F 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
W11
G14
NW7
G17
NW14
G18
NW16
G26
NW16
G22
NW6
G23
NW9
G22
NW11
G19
NW13
G17
NW11
G17
NW10
G15
NW9
G12
NW6
NW4
NW3
SW3
SW4
SW4
SW5
SW4
W5
SW4
W4
SW4
1 day
ago
SW7
SW5
G9
SW7
SW7
G12
SW7
SW8
G12
SW8
G11
W12
G15
SW9
G13
SW8
G12
SW9
G12
SW11
G14
SW9
G14
SW11
G14
SW12
G17
SW15
G20
SW21
G27
SW5
SW16
G20
SW13
G19
SW15
G20
SW12
G17
SW12
G17
SW15
G23
2 days
ago
SW4
SW4
SW5
W4
W7
W8
W9
G13
W8
G11
SW7
G11
W7
G11
SW9
G12
W7
G11
W6
G9
NW7
G10
W6
G12
SW8
SW9
G12
SW6
G9
SW10
G13
SW7
G10
SW9
SW7
SW7
G10
SW7
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi47 minSW 4 mi14°F7°F73%1028 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrW9
G16
W11NW18
G27
NW18
G31
N16
G27
NW15
G28
NW14
G27
NW11
G21
NW10
G20
NW10
G15
NW7
G17
NW6NW5NW3SW3SW3SW4SW5SW5SW5SW3SW5SW4SW4
1 day agoSW6SW5SW6SW4SW6SW5SW8SW86SW76SW7SW7SW9
G18
SW7
G16
SW10
G19
SW11
G25
SW9
G21
SW10
G22
SW8
G16
SW8SW9
G16
SW11
G17
W9
G18
2 days agoW4SW4SW4Calm5SW7W7SW7NW7W10
G15
W7SW7W655S5SW7SW5SW8SW8SW5SW6SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.