Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 4:49 AM EST (09:49 UTC) Moonrise 1:13PMMoonset 11:05PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 352 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the morning...then increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. A chance of snow showers until late afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet until early morning.
LHZ363 Expires:201811142115;;281015 FZUS63 KDTX 140852 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 352 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Pressure will increase from 30.30 inches to 30.50 inches Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning across the Great Lakes region as higher pressure builds in from the west. High pressure averaging 30.60 inches will continue to move east and will settle across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Pressure will then gradually diminish back down to 30.20 inches through Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the south, bringing a chance for rain that will transition over to snow late Thursday into early Friday. LHZ362-363-142115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 140850
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
350 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Discussion
Quiet weather expected today as a high pressure lifts through the
great lakes. Low level winds will begin veering from w-nw towards
the e-se as this high pressure moves off to the northeast throughout
the day. This will gradually bring an end to the lake effect regime
off of lake michigan with dry air already decreasing cloud cover
across southeast michigan early this morning. Even though there will
be more Sun today, the cold start to this morning with temperatures
around 20 degrees should only allow a thermal recovery into the
low mid 30s. Lows tonight will drop down in the 20s.

On Thursday, michigan will be placed in a zone between a closed low
lifting out of the lower mississippi valley and an approaching
northern stream shortwave across central canada. The low level
southerly flow ahead of the low approaching from the south will help
push some of the colder air out of the region as it moves into the
tn and oh valley. The leading edge of moisture wrapping around the
low with the deformation fgen band will push northward and reach the
michigan state line by around noon. Temperatures will be above
freezing in the mid upper 30s as precipitation moves into lower
michigan during the early afternoon. Soundings suggest a period of
rain or a rain snow mix with wet bulb cooling occurring.

Precipitation has a better opportunity to transition over to snow as
temperatures cool further after sunset. Potential also exists under
southeasterly flow that some locations could maintain warmer lower
level profiles, which would limit snow potential. Will keep periods
of rain snow mix for most of the day period and a better chance for
snow after sunset. Given the uncertainty still with this event,
snowfall of up to an inch or less looks reasonable at the moment.

The southern stream system will push east of the forecast area by
Friday morning as the northern stream shortwave crosses through
ontario. Bulk of the heaviest precipitation should stay north of our
cwa as height rises move in from the south. Wind direction on Friday
will bring the return of the lake effect regime with more clouds and
scattered light snow showers for areas along and north of i-69.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
occasional chances for snow given the longwave trough pattern that
persists into the long term.

Marine
There will be a decrease in the northwest winds and the waves today
as high pressure expands into the region from the west. This high
will drift east of the area tonight, supporting a backing of the
wind to the south-southwest by Thursday morning. After a brief
uptick in the wind speeds overnight into thurs morning, speeds will
again decrease thurs afternoon as weakening low pressure lifts into
the eastern great lakes. A cold front will push across the region on
Friday, resulting in a veering of the winds from south to west-
northwest and modest uptick in wind speeds.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1149 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
aviation...

lowerVFR CIGS between 3500-4500 feet will gradually break up
overnight, but main clearing will hold off until Wednesday morning
as much drier low level air works into area with high pressure. This
high will bring light variable winds which will become easterly late
in the forecast.

For dtw... Ceilings AOB 5kft will begin to break up overnight and
then clear Wednesday morning as high pressure brings much drier low
level air into area.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cigs AOB 5kft tonight.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi60 min WNW 21 G 27 27°F 45°F7 ft1028.9 hPa (+1.4)
KP58 41 mi59 min W 11 G 19 25°F 1030.1 hPa12°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi50 min W 8.9 G 17 25°F 39°F1029.4 hPa (+1.2)15°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi70 min W 9.9 G 14 23°F 1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi59 minW 11 G 19 mi25°F12°F58%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS3SW4SW4SW5SW44W6W5556W5W3W3W5NW9NW9N6NW8NW7NW8NW8NW8NW10
2 days agoSW335SW5SW6465SW8SW95453Calm444SW5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.