Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:32PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:32 AM EDT (14:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 934 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Rain showers likely until early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ363 Expires:201710192015;;089859 FZUS63 KDTX 191334 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 934 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over James Bay, 29.91 inches, will drag a cold front through Lake Huron and southeastern Michigan this morning. The front will become stationary over northern Ohio by this evening...as surface high pressure at 30.25 inches expands back into the Ohio River Valley. The next low pressure system will gather itself over the northern High Plains this weekend, deepening to 29.20 inches by Saturday morning. LHZ362-363-192015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191120
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
720 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Aviation
Frontal boundary pushing southward through southeastern michigan
this morning will lead to additional drying sub 800mb to an airmass
that had already been lacking moisture. A well developed, compact
anticylonic circulation will then roll across lower michigan this
afternoon and tonight. Nil moisture and dynamic support for
subsidence will bring little cloud outside of thin cirrus canopy.

There is moderate to high confidence that westerly wind gusts will
reach and exceed 15 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 348 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
discussion...

a dry cold front is beginning to march across the great lakes as
advertised with little in the way of even clouds with it.

Compression of the the SW gradient is keeping winds elevated through
the rest of the night morning. Afternoon mixing will keep some gusts
through the afternoon, otherwise winds will die off tonight. A
narrow band of clouds will slide across mi with the front, but will
impact the forecast minimally. Most notable change to the forecast
in the near term is the downward adjustment to dewpoints into the
afternoon. Obs show the dry air and subsidence over wi resulting in
quick drops in dewpoints from 40s into the upper teens. With the
front weakening, the driest air more to the north, and airmass
modification over the lakes, we shouldn't be getting that dry but
could flirt with values near 30f across the north. Otherwise,
another day with temperatures rising into the mid upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday will continue the pleasant weather we've been
experiencing for the last week or so now. Large area of surface high
pressure quickly builds back into southern great lakes while we
still reside on the western side of the ridge with warm
southwesterly flow. Longwave ridge will undergo strong amplification
Friday in response to strong troughing moving inland off the
pacific. The pattern will stall temporarily as it continues to
deepen but will eventually get forces east by the next strong wave
surging across southern canada. This will send a stalling frontal
boundary into southern mi late Sunday and overnight. Models begin to
diverge significantly heading into the start of the new week. Euro
wants to stall the front over southern mi while the GFS keeps it
more progressive. So will continue to forecast precipitation
centered around Sunday night and will adjust as necessary in the
coming forecasts.

Model do tend to agree that cooler weather looks to be in store for
the middle of next week. An upper level trough will drop into the
region with northerly flow originating from northern canada. This
would bring one of the coldest airmasses of the season into the
region likely lingering through the end of the week.

Marine...

gusty southwest winds have persisted overnight over much of the
central great lakes ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread
observations have been reported with southwest winds of 25 to 30
knots. Winds will begin to ease late this morning and afternoon in
response to increasing high pressure behind a shallow cold front.

Winds this afternoon will still range between 15 to 20 knots in many
areas. Dry conditions are expected for the end of the week and for
much of the upcoming weekend. However, southwest winds are expected
to remain in the 15 to 20 knot range in response to strong gradient
ahead of a northern plain states low pressure system.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-422-
441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi103 min WSW 21 G 23 59°F 57°F5 ft1014.3 hPa (+1.0)
KP58 41 mi42 min WSW 8 60°F 1015.1 hPa48°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi45 min W 9.9 G 15 59°F 1015.6 hPa48°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi53 min WSW 8 G 13 56°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi42 minWSW 8 mi60°F48°F65%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8
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5SW6SW7W7W7SW5SW4SW5SW7SW8SW8SW7SW7SW7SW7SW6SW7
2 days agoNW5NW7NW4NW6NW665W5S3S33S33S33SW3S43Calm665SW9
G16
SW9
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.