Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:52PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:50 PM EDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 12:19AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 322 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late morning and early afternoon...then veering to the south until early morning. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ363 Expires:201805210800;;264172 FZUS63 KDTX 201922 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 322 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, will move over Lake Huron this afternoon and will persist into Monday. Weak low pressure will track along the southern Michigan border Monday night, with high pressure returning for the mid week period. LHZ363-462-210800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201925
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
325 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Discussion
Near term rest of today through tonight
as of 325 pm edt... A dreary late may day continues across southeast
michigan as low stratus continues to linger across much of the lower
part of the state. These clouds have kept it on the cooler side with
temperatures struggling to get into the 60s across inland areas, with
50s along the lake huron shoreline. Remnant midlevel frontal forcing
and theta-e gradient coupled with a weak midlevel wave has allowed
for scattered light showers drizzle to propagate eastward into
portions of southeast michigan, further adding to the dreary
conditions.

High pressure continues to attempt to build in at the surface, but
has struggled with southwesterly flow pushing into
illinois indiana ohio. The shower activity is expected to wane into
the evening hours, however, as northward moisture transport is
shunted to the south with a MCS that will likely develop over the
mid-mississippi river valley later tonight. Drier air with the high
will then be able to better filter in from north to south, allowing
for a brief clearing trend in cloud cover especially late this
evening and into the early overnight. Low temperatures will
subsequently plummet, especially across the northern thumb where
upper 30s readings are in play as clearing skies and decoupling
boundary layer winds allow for possible patchy frost to develop.

Across the rest of southeast michigan, low temperatures will fall
into the 40s except near the ohio border, where cloud cover will
hold on through the night and keep lows from falling below the low
50s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
active stretch of weather becoming increasingly likely Monday
through Monday night...

the evolution of the aforementioned MCS continues to come into
better focus as it enters a wider envelope of the hi-res guidance
window. Much of the hi-res guidance (hrrr, namnest, wrf-arw) is in
pretty good agreement with the MCS emerging over central illinois
and tracking northeastward towards lower lake michigan by the early
morning hours Monday. As the MCS tracks northeastward, it will run
into an increasingly unfavorable airmass in terms of moisture and
instability availability, and is expected to weaken with time as it
enters lower michigan during the morning hours. Convective debris
clouds will preclude the arrival of any precipitation, with cloud
cover increasing rapidly from southwest to northeast during the
morning. Remnant showers will be possible mainly west of the i-75
corridor, and cannot rule out a few embedded rumbles of thunder as
some elevated instability riding the nose of a low-level theta-e
gradient attempts to nudge its way across the ohio indiana border.

As the parent MCS continues to weaken, shortwave energy currently
located over central oklahoma will eject into the fast confluent
flow aloft and induce cyclogenesis as it races northeastwards
towards lower michigan. Although the outgoing forecast calls for
likely pops Monday afternoon, there will likely be a lull in
activity late morning early afternoon as we transition in between
forcing mechanisms. As the developing surface low tracks towards
lower michigan, low-level southwesterly flow will strengthen and
advect a plume of deeper moisture into the region as pwats surge
back over 1.50 inches by the evening hours.

Abundant cloud cover during the day will limit solar insolation, and
have gone below guidance for high temperatures Monday, with only mid
60s expected for most areas, although these readings may still be
too high. One area to keep an eye on, however, is across washtenaw,
wayne, lenawee, and monroe counties, as there are some weak signals
in the model guidance in a dry punch accompanying the southeast
flank of the decaying mcs. If this occurs, breaks in cloud cover
could occur and allow for temperatures to spike into the 70s, and
with dewpoints rising into the 50s, surface-based instability could
near 1000 j kg.

Regardless, expecting the second round of showers and thunderstorms
to occur beginning mid late afternoon and persisting through at
least midnight. Global guidance has now converged on this solution,
as the surface low midlevel shortwave and tightening thermal
gradient to the northwest provide plenty of dynamics for this
activity. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature, as
forecast soundings depict a sharp low-level inversion that will make
it hard for most updrafts to become rooted in the boundary layer.

Heavy rainfall will be the main threat with thunderstorms, and at
this time not expecting any severe weather. The potential exists for
areas that receive the heaviest amounts of rainfall to exceed an
inch, and poor drainage flooding will be possible.

Another flooding concern will be the potential for renewed lakeshore
flooding across the shores of western lake erie and saginaw bay
Monday afternoon into Monday night. Easterly flow (erie) and
northeasterly flow (saginaw bay) will ramp up as the pressure
gradient tightens along with any mesoscale pressure rise fall
couplets associated with the MCS later thunderstorms. With water
levels running high, a favorable wind direction and only a 10-15
knot increase could make the difference in vulnerable areas seeing
flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will end from west to east late
Monday night, and will favor the more progressive of solutions with
the confluent flow aloft. Drying conditions will ensue Tuesday as
high pressure begins to build in from the upper great lakes.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
high pressure will continue to build across the great lakes for the
midweek period, along with rising upper-level heights. Anticyclonic
flow trajectories through the column and drier air filtering in from
the north will lead to a stable and quiet period of weather through
at least early Friday. During this period, temperatures will
gradually moderate as thicknesses increase, with 70s readings
getting into the lower 80s by Friday. Northern stream energy diving
out of the northern plains will lead to an increasingly unsettled
pattern for the weekend with increasing chances for showers and
possibly thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds will vary in direction dramatically across the central great
lakes through Tuesday. A compact low pressure system will cross
southern lake huron on Monday. Speeds and accompanying waves are
expected to increase late Monday into Tuesday as the low exits the
region. Showers are expected Monday afternoon with this low pressure
system. Thunderstorms are possible Monday evening, mainly confined
to lake st. Clair and west lake erie.

Hydrology
Showers are expected Monday - especially during the midday time
frame. Amounts should be less than a quarter inch with this
activity. During the late afternoon and evenings hours, additional
thunderstorm development is possible. Localized rainfall amounts of
around an inch are possible with these storms. The greatest chances
for thunderstorms will be along and south of interstate 69.

Prev discussion
Issued at 117 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
aviation...

persistent MVFR clouds will maintain through the balance of the
afternoon. The near surface layers will slowly dry from north to
south late this afternoon into the evening hours - lifting and
breaking ceilings somewhat. The greatest thinning of clouds will be
observed at the northern terminals. North flow will veer to
northeast and hold through the night, before becoming more easterly
Monday morning. Ongoing scattered showers will continue to dissipate
as they approach the terminals this afternoon. Will maintain a
vicinity mention for the first few hours. An area of light rain is
expected to advance northeast across southeast michigan starting mid-
morning Monday. There will likely be a break in the rainfall during
the late afternoon.

For dtw... Ceilings will remain below 5kft through the afternoon into
the early evening. Ceilings may dip below 5kft once again toward
midday Monday into Monday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5000 ft today, medium this evening and again
Monday midday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
aviation... ..Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi61 min W 3.9 G 5.8 39°F 37°F1 ft1023.7 hPa (+0.0)
KP58 41 mi60 min NE 4.1 47°F 1023.3 hPa42°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi51 min N 7 G 8 45°F 1022.5 hPa (+0.0)40°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi71 min E 8 G 9.9 46°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi60 minNE 4 mi47°F42°F83%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5NW3NW4NW5NW6NW6N6NW10W7NW8NW9NW6NW10
G18
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1 day agoNE12NE113E3E7E9E10SE9E9SE7E8E8E6SE11SE13
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2 days agoN13N7N13N10N10N12NE11NE12NE13NE15E16E15E15E16E16E14E8E6E4E4NE4NE3NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.