Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Green Bay, WI
March 29, 2024 4:46 AM CDT (09:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 7:17 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:17 AM |
LMZ522 Expires:202403291300;;808416 Fzus53 Kgrb 290933 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 433 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-291300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 433 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
Early in the morning - NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Clear. Waves 2 ft or less.
Today - NW wind 5 to 10 kts veering se in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight - SE wind 5 to 10 kts backing E 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Light rain and light snow likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Light rain and light snow likely in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night - N wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 433 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-291300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 433 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 290937 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 437 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- A fast moving system will bring a wintry mix to locations mainly along/north of Hwy 29 late tonight into Saturday morning.
Confidence continues to increase for impactful ice and snow accumulations. A winter weather advisory has been issued.
- A second wintry system is expected to impact the forecast area Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Rain and snow will both be possible, although exact amounts are still uncertain.
- Quiet conditions and above average temperatures return mid-week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 437 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Saturday
Dry conditions are expected for most of the daylight hours as weak high pressure slides east of the region. Can't rule out a light shower or sprinkle as a push of WAA arrives this afternoon.
Some mid and high clouds will spread across the area at times, with clouds lowering and thickening late in the day. Highs should climb into the mid 40s to low 50s for most spots, with cooler readings near Lake Michigan due to an onshore flow.
Tricky forecast this evening into Saturday morning with surface/road temps hovering around freezing with a quick hitting system bringing wintry mix of precip, mainly north of a Mosinee to Marinette line. Surface low pressure will track from IA this afternoon to southwest MI late Saturday morning, as a mid-level shortwave trough tracks from MN to the U.P. Isentropic lift, FGEN and support from the LFQ of an upper jet will allow rain showers to blossom between 00-06z, continuing/expanding across the area into Saturday morning. QPF values look to range from 0.15-0.40" for most of the area, with a few higher amounts possible. Model thermal profiles continue to show a warm nose between 2000-5000 ft, leading to freezing rain and sleet across portions of central and northern WI. Still some uncertainty on how far the sub- freezing surface temps will get, with the Hwy 29 corridor on the borderline. As low-level winds turn a little more easterly overnight as the low passes to our south, think enough cold air will advect in over northern WI to aid in keep surface/low-level temps at/below freezing. Will continue to have the most snow (an inch or two) near the MI border where the colder air will be deeper, and the most freezing rain (up to 0.15") stretching from Lincoln County to southern Forest and western Oconto counties.
More uncertainty on icing potential/totals as you move a little to the south from Marathon to Shawano counties. Mainly rain is expected south of Hwy 29 with little to no impacts.
Next question will be if/where there will be any significant impacts. With the sunshine and warmer temps today, surface road temps will likely climb over 60 degrees. But overnight, road temp modeling showing surface/road temps dropping to right around freezing. A little snow remains on the ground over the north, plus some frost is still in the ground, so roads are likely to be the coldest and most susceptible to icing. This is just a forecast though, so a degree or two difference could make roads wet vs.
icy. So while the weather puzzle is not quite complete and after collaboration with MQT/ARX/DLH, parts of our area look to be ground zero for the wintry mix and confidence is high enough that some impacts on the roads will occur to go with a winter wx adv for parts of northern WI. If some of the higher ice totals materialize, some minor tree damage would be possible, but winds will not be too gusty (up to 20 mph through around sunrise).
We start to lose the mid-level moisture as the precip ends, so some drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible. As the mixed precip ends from west to east Saturday morning/early afternoon, surface/road temps will increase, ending any impacts on the roads.
Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday
As the weekend system departs to the east, attention then turns to an early week system that is expected to bring another round of wintry precip to the Midwest. There is still some variability in the track of the surface low, although confidence is increasing in potential for some accumulating snow in the CWA The remainder of the extended looks predominantly mild and dry as a blocking ridge settles in across the central CONUS.
Early week precip chances... A deep 500 mb trough will spin up a Colorado low on the nose of an upper-level jet near the Four Corners region. This low is progged to eject across the central Plains and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon, bringing precip chances to the forecast area Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Some deterministic models (GFS and CMC) suggest that this system will phase with a northern stream shortwave that dives down from Manitoba to Wisconsin Wednesday morning, which would provide an additional obstacle to the forecast. Precip type will likely start as rain before transitioning to snow Tuesday morning as a backdoor cold front drops south and backs winds to north/northeasterly. The warm sector looks to trap most of the deep Gulf moisture to our south, although it briefly tries to make an appearance in southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon. Depending on how far north this moisture extends, it may be able to ride a mid- level FGEN band across southern Wisconsin. If this solution were to occur, it may be sufficient to place a band of snow on the back end of the system across central to east-central Wisconsin.
However, the northern extent of the precip is still in question given the influence of Hudson Bay high pressure and dry air intrusion to the north generating a sharp moisture gradient across central Wisconsin. Regardless, this system warrants keeping an eye on as additional models come in range.
Rest of the extended... The remainder of the long-term looks to be relatively quiet as a blocking ridge builds in across the central CONUS and surface high pressure centers itself over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will begin a gradual upward trend during this time, with portions of central Wisconsin possibly seeing the mid 60s (~10 degrees above average) by the end of the week.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Good Friday will have good flying weather as a weak surface high drifts across Wisconsin. A complex low pressure system will bring some rain Friday night and early Saturday morning, with freezing rain possible north of a AUW to AIG to ESC line.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ005-010-018>020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon CDT Saturday for WIZ011>013-021.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 437 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- A fast moving system will bring a wintry mix to locations mainly along/north of Hwy 29 late tonight into Saturday morning.
Confidence continues to increase for impactful ice and snow accumulations. A winter weather advisory has been issued.
- A second wintry system is expected to impact the forecast area Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Rain and snow will both be possible, although exact amounts are still uncertain.
- Quiet conditions and above average temperatures return mid-week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 437 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Saturday
Dry conditions are expected for most of the daylight hours as weak high pressure slides east of the region. Can't rule out a light shower or sprinkle as a push of WAA arrives this afternoon.
Some mid and high clouds will spread across the area at times, with clouds lowering and thickening late in the day. Highs should climb into the mid 40s to low 50s for most spots, with cooler readings near Lake Michigan due to an onshore flow.
Tricky forecast this evening into Saturday morning with surface/road temps hovering around freezing with a quick hitting system bringing wintry mix of precip, mainly north of a Mosinee to Marinette line. Surface low pressure will track from IA this afternoon to southwest MI late Saturday morning, as a mid-level shortwave trough tracks from MN to the U.P. Isentropic lift, FGEN and support from the LFQ of an upper jet will allow rain showers to blossom between 00-06z, continuing/expanding across the area into Saturday morning. QPF values look to range from 0.15-0.40" for most of the area, with a few higher amounts possible. Model thermal profiles continue to show a warm nose between 2000-5000 ft, leading to freezing rain and sleet across portions of central and northern WI. Still some uncertainty on how far the sub- freezing surface temps will get, with the Hwy 29 corridor on the borderline. As low-level winds turn a little more easterly overnight as the low passes to our south, think enough cold air will advect in over northern WI to aid in keep surface/low-level temps at/below freezing. Will continue to have the most snow (an inch or two) near the MI border where the colder air will be deeper, and the most freezing rain (up to 0.15") stretching from Lincoln County to southern Forest and western Oconto counties.
More uncertainty on icing potential/totals as you move a little to the south from Marathon to Shawano counties. Mainly rain is expected south of Hwy 29 with little to no impacts.
Next question will be if/where there will be any significant impacts. With the sunshine and warmer temps today, surface road temps will likely climb over 60 degrees. But overnight, road temp modeling showing surface/road temps dropping to right around freezing. A little snow remains on the ground over the north, plus some frost is still in the ground, so roads are likely to be the coldest and most susceptible to icing. This is just a forecast though, so a degree or two difference could make roads wet vs.
icy. So while the weather puzzle is not quite complete and after collaboration with MQT/ARX/DLH, parts of our area look to be ground zero for the wintry mix and confidence is high enough that some impacts on the roads will occur to go with a winter wx adv for parts of northern WI. If some of the higher ice totals materialize, some minor tree damage would be possible, but winds will not be too gusty (up to 20 mph through around sunrise).
We start to lose the mid-level moisture as the precip ends, so some drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible. As the mixed precip ends from west to east Saturday morning/early afternoon, surface/road temps will increase, ending any impacts on the roads.
Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday
As the weekend system departs to the east, attention then turns to an early week system that is expected to bring another round of wintry precip to the Midwest. There is still some variability in the track of the surface low, although confidence is increasing in potential for some accumulating snow in the CWA The remainder of the extended looks predominantly mild and dry as a blocking ridge settles in across the central CONUS.
Early week precip chances... A deep 500 mb trough will spin up a Colorado low on the nose of an upper-level jet near the Four Corners region. This low is progged to eject across the central Plains and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon, bringing precip chances to the forecast area Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Some deterministic models (GFS and CMC) suggest that this system will phase with a northern stream shortwave that dives down from Manitoba to Wisconsin Wednesday morning, which would provide an additional obstacle to the forecast. Precip type will likely start as rain before transitioning to snow Tuesday morning as a backdoor cold front drops south and backs winds to north/northeasterly. The warm sector looks to trap most of the deep Gulf moisture to our south, although it briefly tries to make an appearance in southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon. Depending on how far north this moisture extends, it may be able to ride a mid- level FGEN band across southern Wisconsin. If this solution were to occur, it may be sufficient to place a band of snow on the back end of the system across central to east-central Wisconsin.
However, the northern extent of the precip is still in question given the influence of Hudson Bay high pressure and dry air intrusion to the north generating a sharp moisture gradient across central Wisconsin. Regardless, this system warrants keeping an eye on as additional models come in range.
Rest of the extended... The remainder of the long-term looks to be relatively quiet as a blocking ridge builds in across the central CONUS and surface high pressure centers itself over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will begin a gradual upward trend during this time, with portions of central Wisconsin possibly seeing the mid 60s (~10 degrees above average) by the end of the week.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Good Friday will have good flying weather as a weak surface high drifts across Wisconsin. A complex low pressure system will bring some rain Friday night and early Saturday morning, with freezing rain possible north of a AUW to AIG to ESC line.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ005-010-018>020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon CDT Saturday for WIZ011>013-021.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
GBWW3 | 2 mi | 46 min | W 5.1G | 30°F | 30.04 | |||
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 26 mi | 46 min | WNW 1.9G | 29°F | 30.03 | |||
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 45 mi | 46 min | SW 5.1G | 29°F | 39°F | 30.00 | 20°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KGRB GREEN BAYAUSTIN STRAUBEL INTL,WI | 8 sm | 53 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 30.04 | |
KOCQ OCONTOJ DOUGLAS BAKE MUNI,WI | 24 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 21°F | 19°F | 93% | 30.05 |
Green Bay, WI,
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