Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Corvallis, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday February 22, 2018 6:34 PM PST (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 12:15AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 557 Pm Pst Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
Rest of tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 9 ft at 8 seconds, becoming W swell 7 ft at 15 seconds after midnight.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 16 seconds. SEcondary swell W 3 ft at 8 seconds. Rain likely.
Fri night..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt, becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat night..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 7 seconds. NW swell 13 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. NW swell 13 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. NW swell 14 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 15 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 11 ft.
PZZ200 557 Pm Pst Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Higher pres will remain over the ne pac. The next low and associated front will move S into the waters on Fri and Fri night, with another disturbance moving through Sat. Small craft advisory winds are likely for a while into this evening, and again Fri and Sat, getting close to gale force late Fri night and early Sat, and again late Sat night and early Sun.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Corvallis, OR
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location: 44.56, -123.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 222356
afdpqr
area forecast discussion...

national weather service portland or
355 pm pst Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis A cold airmass with low snow levels will hold over
the region through the weekend and likely much of next week. We will
be in between systems tonight through early Friday. Dry but chilly
conditions are expected tonight. Then increasing clouds again on fri,
with another round of precipitation spreading into the region during
the afternoon and evening. Steady precipitation continues into
Saturday morning, then tapers to showers in the afternoon. The next
system arrives quickly on its heels, bringing heavy precipitation
late Sat night through sun. Snow levels will rise slightly over the
weekend, but the cascades, cascade foothills, the coast range, and
willapa hills will see significant snowfall this weekend. The cold
and active pattern continues for the first half of next week.

Short term Tonight through Sunday... The broad and cold upper level
trough that brought us last night's low-elevation snow event is now
centered over the interior pac nw. We remain in cyclonic flow aloft
on the backside of the trough, which is keeping some light snow
showers going across the mountains, along with a few flurries and
clouds over the interior lowlands as well. As the trough axis
continues to push east tonight, we will see showers end and clouds
scatter out. The air mass overhead is quite cold, at -8 to
-10c, which combined with the clearing skies and light winds, should
result in some of our coldest overnight lows of the year so far.

Expect lows for the interior lowlands to drop into the low to mid
20s, with teens for the gorge and hood river valley and some outlying
valley locations. Any remaining snow or moisture on the roads by this
evening will likely refreeze overnight, so we are expecting some
slippery spots around for the Fri morning commute.

Fri will be fairly quiet for the first half of the day as a shortwave
ridge passes overhead. However, clouds will increase through the day
ahead of the next shortwave advancing toward the region from the nw.

A warm front will begin to spread light precipitation onshore in the
afternoon, with precipitation intensity picking up in the evening.

There is concern that some of this initial precip will fall as snow
for portions of the interior lowlands. The fcst models are snowing
wet bulb zero heights below 1000 ft, which suggest that at least a
rain snow mix is likely for the lowest elevations. However, there
will also be an increasing southerly gradient late fri. This should
act to act to keep surface temps above freezing at the valley floor.

Think there is a chance that some of the higher terrain around the
lowlands sees some light accumulations, generally an inch or less and
for elevations above 500 ft. The best chance will likely be for the
northern half of the valley, where winds will be more southeasterly
and not quite as breezy as we are expecting through the
central and southern willamette valley. We have issued a special
weather statement to highlight this threat. The warm front
will move onshore later in the evening, with the southerly gradient
opening up further by around midnight. This should act to lift the
snow level to up around 1000 feet or above. Advisory level snowfall
accumulations are likely for the cascades, the cascade foothills, the
coast range, and willapa hills Fri night through Sat morning as the
upper level shortwave associated with this system drops through the
region and drives some good orographic flow. The lowlands should see
numerous showers overnight as well, but QPF totals will be much
lighter in the valley due to rain shadowing.

There will be a lull in the precipitation Sat afternoon and evening,
but plenty of clouds, as the upper level shortwave moves out of the
region. However, another system will follow quickly in its wake
overnight Sat and sun. This system looks to have even more moisture
associate with it. If the current model trends hold, we will likely
see some of our heaviest mountain snow of the season sun. Amounts in
the cascades could exceed 2 feet through Sun night. Snow levels will
remain low, generally in the 1500 to 2500 ft range. So significant
accumulations in the cascade foothills and coast range are possible
as well, with potential for over a foot in some of the higher
elevations. Precipitation will remain all rain for the interior
lowlands through sun. Expect periodically gusty southerly winds
through the weekend, with the strongest winds likely Sat morning and
sun morning. The surface gradient looks impressive during both time
periods, but the winds aloft are more westerly, so do not expect
winds to approach advisory thresholds. We could see some gusts
of 30 to 35 mph at times, however. Pyle

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... Fairly active pattern
expected will continue through the long range. GFS ensembles for 12z
mon indicate cold upper level troughing to remain over southwest
washington and northwest oregon. Operational runs of the GFS and
ecmwf in good agreement showing 500 mb north flow over the area,
with the upper trough axis extending from NE washington to extreme
nw california. The bulk of the dynamics will have shifted to
southwest and south central oregon by that time. Model 1000-500 mb
thickness values Sun night forecast to be near 520 dm amd 850 mb
temps still -6 to -8c. This translates to continued low snow levels.

Going with near the surface in the central columbia gorge and upper
hood river valley to around 500 ft in the north willamette valley
and clark county in SW washington. Snow levels to gradually rise the
south of the aforementioned areas rise to around 1000 ft.

Substantial snowfall is likely for the cascades and foothills and
higher elevations of the oregon coast range and also SW washington
willapa hills through Mon morning.

North flow aloft continues Mon and will push the upper trough axis
well to the south. A few of the GFS ensemble members want to close
off a 500 mb low near the central california coast mon. Maintained
climo or slightly above climo pops Mon due to the potential for weak
short-waves within the north flow aloft to migrate through the
forecast area. The ECMWF appears to be slightly faster with the next
short-wave Mon night and tue. Over-running warm-frontal precip
expected to slide south into SW washington and far NW oregon
sometime tue. GFS indicates slight moderation in 850 mb temps tue,
but still around -5c. Snow levels Mon night and Tue hover in the 750
to 1500 ft range. Models then show another upper level trough
carving out over the NE pac Wed through thu. Details differ, but the
general gist is for continued below normal daytime temperatures,
relatively low snow levels and unsettled conditions. This pattern
will bring additional snow to the cascades, which will continue
the trend of building snowpack. Weishaar

Aviation The remaining MVFR conditions will improve toVFR the
remainder of this afternoon and evening with predominantlyVFR
tonight as improvement will continue to take place from north to
south. Some local freezing fog and ifr conditions are possible
later tonight and early Friday morning. Conditions will drop to
MVFR Friday afternoon as precipitation from the next front moves
in, with rain expected except possibly a rain snow mix in the
northern inland areas.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conditions will continue tonight and
Friday morning, with the remaining clouds decreasing this
evening. There is a small chance of brief freezing fog around
sunrise Friday. Conditions will drop to MVFR mid afternoon
Friday as precipitation spreads in, with some flurries possibly
mixed in but little impact expected at this time. Pt

Marine Small craft advisory threshold north winds in the
outer and southern waters will decrease this evening. Seas will
drop below 10 ft as the winds ease as well.

The next system drops southward from the north during the day
Friday. The main low pressure area stays north of the waters near
vancouver island later Friday into Saturday with small craft
advisory threshold winds over our waters, and even some possible
gales late Friday night and early Saturday. There is a lull
later Saturday and Saturday evening before another system drops
south and brings more small craft advisory threshold winds Sunday
that could again get close to gales again.

This series of systems late Friday through the weekend has a nice
northwesterly fetch off the b.C. Coast that will likely lead to
seas in our coastal waters being well up in the teens through the
weekend. Pt

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 6 pm pst this evening for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 pm pst this
afternoon for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 10 pm pst this evening for
coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out 60
nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm pst this
evening for coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 41 mi47 min N 6 G 11 38°F 49°F1027.4 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 42 mi35 min N 12 G 14 39°F
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 66 mi35 min N 16 G 21 41°F 48°F1028.1 hPa (+1.2)30°F

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corvallis, Corvallis Municipal Airport, OR4 mi39 minN 310.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F26°F70%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from CVO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S6S6S3S8S10S13S11S10S4S4N4N8N6N5N10N11N11N8N9N9N12N7N3
1 day agoS3SW3S5CalmCalmNW3N7N9N7N10N3N3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm4SE7S7
2 days agoCalmW3W3CalmW5S3NW5CalmCalmS4S3S6S8S11S10S12S11S13S12S10S11S8S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
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Thu -- 12:17 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:10 AM PST     8.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:50 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:14 PM PST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:15 PM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.44.96.47.68.17.975.64.12.61.61.11.32.13.34.55.45.85.754.13.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Drift Creek, Alsea River, Oregon
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Drift Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:58 AM PST     6.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:48 PM PST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:56 PM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.223.44.966.46.15.54.53.32.21.40.80.71.32.43.64.44.74.53.93.22.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.