Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bucksport, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 4:08PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 12:30 AM EST (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1225 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Rest of tonight..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow and rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Snow, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow and rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 1225 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure rapidly exits northeast into the maritimes with strong northwest winds in its wake today. The next potential coastal storm to arrive late Thursday night or Friday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bucksport, ME
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location: 44.57, -68.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 140419
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1119 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Intensifying low pressure will exit across the maritimes
overnight. Bitter cold arctic air will follow on Wednesday with
strong gusty winds. Another coastal storm is expected to impact
the region Friday.

Near term through Wednesday
Update...

have cancelled all winter storm warnings winter weather
advisories with this update. Intensifying low pressure will exit
across the maritimes overnight. Isolated to scattered snow
showers are expected across the north and mountains overnight
with cold air advection around the exiting low. Any additional
snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Cloud
cover will decrease downeast overnight. The pressure gradient
will tighten overnight between the intensifying maritimes low
and high pressure to the southwest. West to northwest winds will
increase overnight with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected late.

Blowing and drifting snow is possible across northern areas. The
winds will also help transport much colder air across the
region which could support a flash-freeze. Overnight low
temperatures will range from around 10 to 15 north, to the upper
teens to around 20 interior downeast with lower 20s along the
downeast coast. Have also updated the forecast to adjust for
current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud
cover and snow shower chances.

Previous discussion...

the big story for Wednesday will be the cold temps and windy
conditions. Winds are expected to gust to 40+ mph especially
across the open and higher terrain. The NAM and GFS soundings
show llvl lapse rates steepening to 8.0 c km. Momentum transfer
of 40+ kts possibly mix to the sfc. So, wind headlines may be
needed. Could also see some streamers coming off the st.

Lawrence river W the wnw wind. If these streamers do set up,
they could reduce vsbys at times during the day.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
First potential winter storm for the bangor and downeast
region Friday...

Wednesday night into Thursday the cold airmass remains in place
as the surface ridge crests over the area. Temps will be running
a good 15 degrees below normal with highs struggling to get out
of the 20s north and above freezing near the coast. The good
news is the winds will be light and the Sun will be out.

Thursday night into early Friday morning clouds will be on the
increase as the next coastal wave approaches from the mid-
atlantic. Still some spread in the exact track of this coastal
low with the GFS camp remaining the furthest east outlier with
better agreement on a closer to the coast track from the
nam cmc ecmwf. Wpc is favoring a closer to the coast track at
this time, but still plenty of time for things to trend
differently. What we are confident about that is that the
majority of the region will get some wintry weather on Friday
with snow likely across the interior of the state and a
snow sleet rain mix for the coast. Things will begin to iron
out over the coming days in regards to the track.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Forecast confidence looks to be below average this weekend
leading into thanksgiving week. What we are confident about is
that this period will have well below avg temperatures with a
few shots of cold weather. In general the mean 500mb trough will
stay entrenched across the northeast CONUS with multiple 500mb
shortwaves moving through with weak waves developing on the
surface cold fronts. In general western mountains will keep
light snow shower activity at times through this period. Overall
didn't feel enough confidence on timing of pops, so broad
brushed with some higher pops over the terrain. Overall we
should run 10 to 15 degrees below average for this period, with
the chance for a slight warm up on Saturday and Sunday.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term: MVFRVFR conditions are expected across the north and
mountains overnight along with isolated to scattered snow
showers, withVFR conditions downeast. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across the north and mountains
Wednesday. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected Wednesday.

West to northwest winds will increase overnight, with strong
gusty winds persisting Wednesday. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are
expected overnight into Wednesday.

Short term: expect improvement Wed evening across the north to
vfr.VFR persists thru Thu night before lowering Fri morning as
next system moves up from the south. Ifr at bgr and bhb in -sn
and advancing north throughout the day. Confidence is still low
on overall aviation impacts for the Friday system, but looks
like a period of snow for all TAF terminals.

Marine
Near term: a gale warning is in effect for the waters overnight
into the early morning hours Thursday. Northwest wind gusts up
to 40 to 45 knots are expected overnight into Wednesday night.

Short term: gales persist into Wed night, then remaining at sca
levels into thur morning. Seas will diminish to about 5ft thu
morning with high pressure building over the waters on thu.

Winds and seas will increase again on Friday as next coastal
system moves south of the waters. Winds will come out of the
east to northeast through day on Friday before switching
offshore by Friday night as surface low pulls out to the north.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 am est Thursday for anz050>052.

Near term... Norcross hewitt
short term... Dumont
long term... Dumont
aviation... Norcross dumont
marine... Norcross dumont


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 34 mi31 min NW 15 G 19 38°F 49°F1006 hPa (+2.8)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi87 min W 16 G 19 41°F 49°F3 ft1006.7 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 49 mi87 min WNW 21 G 27 42°F 50°F6 ft1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME17 mi38 minWNW 12 G 2810.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1006.7 hPa
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME24 mi35 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F33°F89%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3E4E3CalmNE6NE8NE7N4N4N6NW10N11NW16NW13
G22
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G28
1 day agoW5W3W4W4W3CalmCalmW46W7W12
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NW8NW7NW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
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5W6W7W3W54W34

Tide / Current Tables for Bucksport, Penobscot River, Maine
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Bucksport
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Wed -- 03:10 AM EST     9.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     2.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:13 PM EST     10.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.17.499.79.48.36.54.632.32.53.65.67.99.610.410.19.17.2531.71.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:30 AM EST     9.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     2.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:33 PM EST     9.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.56.68.29.19.18.26.54.632.22.33.357.18.89.79.88.97.35.131.71.21.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.