Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newport, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 3:31 AM PST (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:38AMMoonset 9:45PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 251 Am Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 6 am pst early this morning...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 1 pm pst this afternoon...
.small craft advisory for winds and hazardous seas in effect from 1 pm pst this afternoon through Thursday evening...
Today..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the morning, then becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers before Sunrise.
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 18 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Thu night..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 18 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Chance of rain.
Fri..SW wind 25 to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, becoming 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 22 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Showers.
Fri night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 20 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat..S wind 30 to 35 kt. Combined seas 17 ft.
Sun..S wind 30 to 35 kt. Combined seas 22 ft.
PZZ200 251 Am Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Broad area of low pres will remain over the gulf of alaska this week, with a series of fronts continuing to push across the region. The next front arrives later tonight with a much stronger front on Fri. Additional fronts will arrive through nearly next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newport, OR
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location: 44.62, -124.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 120304 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
703 pm pst Tue dec 11 2018
updated aviation and marine sections.

Synopsis A cold front will move through this evening, resulting in
a period of moderate rain and breezy southerly winds. The next warm
front will bring light rain to southwest washington and far northwest
oregon Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will bring
widespread rain Friday. The active weather pattern continues through
the weekend and early next week.

Short term Tonight through Friday... A moist frontal system is
making landfall on the pac NW coast today. The focus of the heaviest
precipitation to this point has been along the washington coast,
namely the olympic peninsula. The trailing cold front is now pushing
towards the coast, which is pivoting the heavier rain into our cwa
from the northwest. Expect rain to increase considerably across the
region during the late afternoon and early evening hours, providing
an unpleasant evening commute for many. The front is tapping into a
subtropical moisture plume, with amsu-derived precipitable waters
values showing values of 1.2-1.3 inches feeding into the system. The
front is being aided by a 150-160 kt jet streak, which will help push
it through the region fairly quickly tonight and prevent any
significant hydrologic issues. Snow levels, which have risen to at
least 6500-7000 ft in the warm sector of the storm today, will drop
quickly back down to the cascade passes behind the front later this
evening. There is quite a bit of post-frontal instability and
orographic flow overnight, which should generate some pretty good
snowfall accumulations down to 3500-4000 ft. A winter weather
advisory was issued for all of the cascades zones, from 7 pm tonight
through 7 am wed. Expect a widespread 4-8 inches, with potential for
a bit more at higher elevations. There will also be some strong winds
into the cascades this evening, so visibilties will likely be quite
poor traveling over the higher passes. One other item of concern is
the potential for some thunderstorm activity over the coastal waters
this evening and overnight as an upper level trough and associated
cold pool move through the region. Plenty of lightning strikes are
being detected under the trough this afternoon well offshore. A
slight chance of thunder has been included in the fcst for the
northern waters and south wa and north or coast tonight.

Post-frontal shower activity will linger into early Wed as cyclonic
flow continues on the back side of the trough. But showers should
steadily dissipate through the day as weak upper level ridging builds
over the area. It looks like much of the region may see a dry
afternoon, with showers mainly confined to the higher terrain. The
next front system will start to move into the pac NW Wed night. This
will be another moderate atmospheric river. The leading edge of the
subtropical moisture plume can be seen on water vapor satellite near
45n 150w this afternoon. Once again, it appears that the focus of
this event will be to our north. The latest fcst models aim the axis
of heavy precipitation onto the olympic peninsula Wed night and thu.

The northern half of our CWA appears to get a glancing blow, with
light rain during this period. The southern half of the CWA may stay
completely dry thu. Also, being on the south side of the front,
expect mild conditions in southerly flow across much of the region
thu. It would not be surprise to see some locations reach into the
mid and possibly even upper 50s for highs Thu afternoon.

The atmospheric river lifts even further north into british columbia
as a warm front Thu night. Then another upper level low will approach
from the southwest and pivot the baroclinic zone to a n-s orientation
offshore. There is still some uncertainty exactly how this system
will play out. The models are suggesting that a strong surface
low will develop along the frontal boundary and move through the
offshore waters Thu night and early fri. There is some concern that
this could produce high winds at the coast. The latest model trend is
to keep the low further offshore, which would limit the wind
potential somewhat. But this will need to be watched closely over the
next few model cycles. The upper level trough is modeled to split
somewhat before moving onshore, so currently not expecting the
precipitation with the front to be all that significant as it moves
onshore fri. But it should be another wet and cloudy day across the
region. Pyle

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... Both deterministic
and ensemble models continue to show a progressive westerly flow
pattern through Tuesday..Aviation... At 7 pm, strong cold front was
pushing over the cascades. Conditions have been improving toVFR
behind the front, though will see areas of MVFR persist over the
coastal mtns and against the west slopes of the cascades through 08z.

Will see mix ofVFR with pockets of MVFR rest of tonight, with
worst conditions under and around showers. But, trend will be for
decreasing showers late tonight into Wed am, with predominately
vfr conditions continuing through Wed afternoon.

Pdx and approaches...VFR tonight and wed, with showers, though
showers decreasing later tonight. CIGS may drop to 2500 to 3000
ft briefly under heavier showers tonight. Rockey.

Marine Cold front now well inland early this evening. Pressure
gradients have relaxed, though will stay breezy overnight with
gusts 25 to 30 kt at times. Could see a few isolated gusts reach
35 kt this evening under the stronger showers, mainly north of
tillamook. Seas mostly in 12 to 15 ft range tonight, though will
see build up to 18 ft over the outer waters.

Break between systems on wed, but another fast moving front will
push across the region Wed night. Likely see another round of
gusty southerly winds, with gusts 35 kt and seas near 20 ft.

Models continue to show a strengthening 972 mb surface low moving
northeast, but well northwest of the waters on Thursday. It
does, however, bring a cold front with stronger gales and
possible storm force gusts across the waters on Friday. No long
term break in sight as additional systems line up across the
pacific well into next week. The strong low on Thursday
night Friday seems to be a more potent swell generator with
combined seas around 25 feet, perhaps even approaching 30 feet.

Expect that the forecast will shift a bit as details come into
better focus, but the key message is that a very active pattern
will continue through the period. Cullenrock

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Wednesday for cascades
in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Wednesday for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 6 am pst Wednesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst Wednesday.

Area for a continued wet period. Several atmospheric river events
are show in the models during over the weekend and early next week
with. Deterministic models such as GFS and ECMWF are in good the
agreement with trow off the coast Saturday and a good south to
southwest flow of moisture across the area. This is a progressive
system that moves east rapidly and should not result in any flooding
concerns. These models advertise a less wet period Sunday night and
Monday but the ECMWF has a stronger system with a more
southerly track by Monday evening and a moderate atmospheric river
pushing into western oregon and washington. The ensembles are also
showing high integrated water vapor transport across the area. The
gfs is slower but also comes on board with high ivwt values and a
stronger atmospheric river event by Tuesday. This is quite far out
in the forecast period and there is some uncertainty, but we should
begin to prepare for a possible heavy rain event early next week.

Snow levels will start off below pass levels Friday night and slowly
rise to around pass levels by Saturday... Then remain near to just
above pass levels early next week. Schneider

Aviation At 7 pm, strong cold front was pushing over the
cascades. Conditions have been improving toVFR behind the
front, though will see areas of MVFR persist over the coastal
mtns and against the west slopes of the cascades through 08z.

Will see mix ofVFR with pockets of MVFR rest of tonight, with
worst conditions under and around showers. But, trend will be for
decreasing showers late tonight into Wed am, with predominately
vfr conditions continuing through Wed afternoon.

Pdx and approaches...VFR tonight and wed, with showers, though
showers decreasing later tonight. CIGS may drop to 2500 to 3000
ft briefly under heavier showers tonight. Rockey.

Marine Cold front now well inland early this evening. Pressure
gradients have relaxed, though will stay breezy overnight with
gusts 25 to 30 kt at times. Could see a few isolated gusts reach
35 kt this evening under the stronger showers, mainly north of
tillamook. Seas mostly in 12 to 15 ft range tonight, though will
see build up to 18 ft over the outer waters.

Break between systems on wed, but another fast moving front will
push across the region Wed night. Likely see another round of
gusty southerly winds, with gusts 35 kt and seas near 20 ft.

Models continue to show a strengthening 972 mb surface low moving
northeast, but well northwest of the waters on Thursday. It
does, however, bring a cold front with stronger gales and
possible storm force gusts across the waters on Friday. No long
term break in sight as additional systems line up across the
pacific well into next week. The strong low on Thursday
night Friday seems to be a more potent swell generator with
combined seas around 25 feet, perhaps even approaching 30 feet.

Expect that the forecast will shift a bit as details come into
better focus, but the key message is that a very active pattern
will continue through the period. Cullenrock

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Wednesday for cascades
in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Wednesday for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 6 am pst Wednesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 1 mi37 min W 5.1 G 7 51°F 51°F1024.8 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 1 mi31 min W 12 G 14 51°F 1024.8 hPa (+3.4)
46097 13 mi101 min WNW 12 52°F 51°F1022.1 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 24 mi21 min WNW 12 G 18 52°F1025.3 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR3 mi36 minW 85.00 miOvercast with Haze48°F42°F82%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE7E10E8E9E7SE5CalmE6E6E7SE5S9S9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Southbeach, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:57 AM PST     6.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:16 AM PST     3.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:30 PM PST     7.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:45 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 PM PST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.94.55.86.776.65.84.843.63.74.45.46.57.17.26.65.64.22.81.60.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.