Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Machias, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:57AMSunset 8:06PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:25 PM EDT (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 1:42AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 1233 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the evening, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ005 1233 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres will approach from the west today, moving east on Wed. A cold front crosses the waters Wed evening. Canadian high pressure builds in Wed night into Thu.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Machias, ME
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location: 44.62, -67.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 221647
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1247 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches today and then crosses the region
tonight through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region on
Wednesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Near term through tonight
1250 pm update...

just minor tweaks to temps dew points at this hour.

Prev discussion blo..

Sfc low sitting acrs cntrl ontario as of 08z this mrng with
wmfnt extending fm low ewd twd the st. Lawrence river. Lgt
showers being picked up on mrms radar data acrs portions of
quebec this mrng and as sfc low and assoc WV appchs the CWA tda.

Convection currently entering ny fm pa wl be fighting against
dry air per 00z gyx RAOB and wl lkly not saturate down ovr
western areas until late this aftn. At the same time, sfc front
wl be dropping south out of canada and spreading showers acrs
the north.

Max temps this aftn expected to be warmest acrs the north and east
where last of the thicker clds wl mv in, allowing temps to rise into
the l m 70s. Elsewhere temps wl rise thru the 60s and appch 70f,
except for higher terrain and coastal areas.

Frontal bndry expected to enter into the st. John vly after and
slipping south thru daybreak. Mins wl stay up arnd 50f for most of
the region, tho cold advection in wake of FROPA may dip temps into
the l m 40s acrs the far north.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The short-term will begin with a front pushing into the crown of
maine Wed am, then pushing south to the coast by the mid to late
afternoon hours. The previous forecast's idea of having a chance
of thunderstorms with the highest pops was maintained with this
update, with t-storms added around and ahead of the front
between 16z and 21z. This represents the best chance of when
there may be some CAPE present in the warm sector, though even
mucape values are likely to be capped at around 1000 j kg given
the limited surface heating due to some am cloud cover. That
said, any thunderstorms or squall lines that form could tap into
some strong unidirectional mid- and upper-level winds, but it is
very much a 'conditional' threat.

As the front approaches the coast in the later afternoon, it
will likely run into some more stable air and precipitation
should diminish. High pressure will build into the state
overnight, allowing for some clearing skies and light winds.

Frost and freeze conditions will likely be common Wed night
across central and northern areas. Sw-w'ly winds and early
sunshine should allow for highs Thu to be a bit warmer for the
northern half of the cwa, while a developing afternoon seabreeze
may keep highs to the south similar to wed. Low pressure moving
across interior quebec later Thu into Thu night will push a warm
front across the region, and some showers are possible,
especially across northern and eastern parts of the cwa.

Long term Friday through Monday
At the start of the long-term period, there is some disagreement
on the timing of the southward progression of a cold front
across the CWA as low pressure moves across the canadian
maritimes. As of now, it appears the best chance for precip will
be Fri night, though pops may need to be increased Fri afternoon
and evening in future forecasts. Thunderstorm potential doesn't
look to be as strong with this one, due to the overnight timing
of the precip, but an earlier frontal passage could increase
that chance. The front may then stall over southern new england,
with precip possible over southern maine. Chance pops were put
along the gyx border for Sat thru sun, though the ECMWF was the
only model showing precip over any part of our cwa. A shortwave
may then approach early next week, but currently looks to keep
precip out of the CWA through the end of the long-term on mon.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR expected to persist into this evening, before
diminishing to MVFR after 08z acrs northern terminals and after
06z at bgr and bhb. Potential ifr CIGS toward end of TAF valid
time in low level moisture. Expect light showers toward daybreak
at all terminals.

Short term: widespread shower and rain activity expected Wed am
and afternoon, generally progressing from northwest to southeast
through the day, with localized MVFR CIGS and vis possible.

Afternoon tstms are possible at all TAF sites, with the highest
risk currently appearing to be khul and kbgr. Precip diminishes
quickly after 21z.VFR conditions expected overnight, except
some localized fog possible, mainly in valleys. Some showers
possible Thu night for khul to kfve, with some clearing likely
on Friday before more showers Fri night.

Marine
Near term: winds and seas will remain well below SCA levels
through tonight.

Short term:
onshore breezes during the day Wed will turn offshore and
freshen in the evening and overnight hours. As high pressure
slides offshore Thu am, winds will briefly drop, then shift back
onshore Thu pm through Fri and increase once again. Gusts appear
likely to remain below 25kts, but seas Fri into Fri night may
exceed SCA criteria, and reach 6-8 feet in the outer waters.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Duda farrar
short term... Kredensor
long term... Kredensor
aviation... Duda farrar kredensor
marine... Duda farrar kredensor


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) 29 mi38 min SSW 6 G 9.9 53°F 46°F1019.2 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 29 mi38 min SSE 13 G 16 51°F 49°F1019.6 hPa
44027 33 mi36 min S 7.8 G 7.8 49°F 48°F3 ft1020.3 hPa (-1.9)47°F
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 41 mi82 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 46°F3 ft1019.6 hPa
PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME 45 mi38 min S 12 G 16 60°F 44°F1020.4 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 49 mi26 min WSW 6 G 7 49°F 1020.1 hPa (-1.6)49°F

Wind History for Cutler Farris Wharf, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME35 mi30 minSSW 810.00 miFair64°F46°F54%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14
G22
SW12
G20
SW13SW11SW9SW6SW6SW5N4N3N3N4N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmS8S11--S10S9S8
1 day ago6NW7NW5NW6Calm5CalmNW4NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmW5W7SW7SW9NW11
G16
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2 days agoSE9SE10SE9S7E4E44S10S7S10SW11S12SW11SW9SW9SW11SW10SW7SW9SW6SW6SW4SW3S6

Tide / Current Tables for Addison, Pleasant River, Maine
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Addison
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     13.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:55 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 PM EDT     12.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.33.15.99.111.612.912.811.48.75.42.30.3-0.30.62.96911.312.31210.37.64.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine
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Milbridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT     12.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:56 PM EDT     11.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.43.46.49.411.612.51210.27.54.41.80.1-0.20.93.36.59.311.211.811.19.26.63.91.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.