Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suamico, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:49AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 856 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Rest of tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Clear.
Friday..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
Friday night..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
Saturday..S wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft, locally higher near death's door. Partly Sunny. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ522 Expires:201710201015;;114103 FZUS53 KGRB 200156 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 856 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-201015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suamico village, WI
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location: 44.66, -87.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 192327
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
627 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 239 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017
quiet weather with even warmer temperatures can be expected
across the area tonight and Friday.

Surface high pressure is forecast to remain southeast of the
great lakes through 00z Saturday as a low pressure system
approaches wisconsin from the west. As a result, the surface
pressure gradient will increase and winds are expected to back.

Speeds should drop tonight once daytime heating is lost, but winds
on Friday should be stronger than today. A mid level ridge axis
is forecast to pass across the state tonight causing the upper
flow to become southwest while a more amplified trough over the
western CONUS slowly approaches.

Warm advection and some wind should prevent temperatures from
tanking overnight, so lows should be mainly in the 40s. Continued
warm advection and better mixing during the day on Friday should
lead to much warmer than normal temperatures. Highs will be
around 20 degrees above normal, with most locations inland from
lake michigan reaching the 70s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 239 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017
dry and mild at the very start of the long term forecast, followed
by a pattern change throughout the weekend and next week.

Forecast challenges revolve around precip timing this weekend and
model differences next week.

Clouds expected to increase Friday night which will help keep
overnight temperatures in the 50s. On Saturday, a surface cold
front will move across minnesota through the afternoon and
evening. Models (with the exception of the canadian) suggest some
scattered precipitation will develop ahead of this front Saturday
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to
cape up to 700-800 j kg and lapse rates around 7 to 7.5 c km.

Severe weather is not expected. Thunder chances diminish Saturday
night once instability is lost. Models also in fairly good
agreement that the surface front will sweep across the forecast
area throughout Sunday morning. There is a better chance of rain
as the front comes through. However, the gfs, ecmwf, and canadian
all show 500mb energy splitting around the area at this time,
which lowers confidence on the overall coverage and intensity of
rain. Shower chances linger through Sunday afternoon before
drying out Sunday night.

Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence is low due to model-to-model
and run-to-run inconsistencies. There is a general agreement that
we transition to a northwest flow pattern for much of next week as
an upper trough deepens over the upper midwest and progresses
eastward. The canadian has pulled back from the closed low rainy
solution it depicted yesterday, but there are still opportunities
for showers as various shortwaves move through. Right now, each
model has a different solution on these details so stuck with a
blended solution, and as a result forecast features a chance of
showers more often than not. Temperatures also look to return to
around normal by next Tuesday. Models vary on how cool 850mb temps
will get, but somewhere around -8 to -4c at times. It's possible
if everything lined up just right a few snowflakes could mix in
with any showers across northern wisconsin if pcpn occurred
during one of the cooler mornings late next week, but confidence
in this scenario is too low to put in forecast at this time due
to issues stated above.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 624 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017
vfr conditions are expected to prevail through Friday with only
high clouds anticipated. As has been the case for the past several
days, the only significant aviation concern is llws, which is
expected to impact the rhi auw CWA taf sites tonight, and all of
the TAF sites Friday evening. Surface winds will also become
a bit gusty during the late morning and afternoon on Friday,
during peak heating.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Mg
long term... ... Klb
aviation... ... .Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45014 14 mi84 min S 12 G 14 60°F 58°F1018 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi54 min SSW 7 G 8.9 58°F 1018.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 36 mi54 min S 8.9 G 12 59°F 1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI16 mi31 minS 510.00 miFair51°F39°F64%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10W10W8W11W10W5SW5SW5SW5W6W7W10W7W9W8SW10SW7SW8SW5S5S5S6S6S5
1 day agoS4SW7S9S7S6S7S7S6S7S7S11S15
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2 days agoS8--SW8S7S8SW6SW7S5SW5SW4SW6SW10W9SW6SW8SW10SW8S9S6S4S4S4S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.