Marine Weather and Tides
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
|Sunrise 6:53AM||Sunset 4:24PM||Friday November 17, 2017 7:35 PM EST (00:35 UTC)||Moonrise 6:43AM||Moonset 5:25PM||Illumination 1%|
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|SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 629 Am Est Fri Nov 17 2017 |
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy early, then becoming mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the evening, then snow showers and rain overnight.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parc, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbtv 180020|
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
720 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
A brief area of high pressure over the region today will continue to
provide dry weather to the north country through most of Saturday
before the next low pressure system brings another round of mainly
rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain showers transition to
mountain snow showers Sunday afternoon, with dry conditions
expected late Sunday night into Monday as high pressure returns.
Near term through Saturday night
As of 718 pm est Friday... Quiet forecast remains on track for
tonight. An upper ridge situated over the eastern great lakes
will be the controlling weather feature over the next 12-18 hrs.
Some mid and high clouds will work ewd into the region during
the overnight hours, but skies should remain fairly clear
through midnight before clouds increase. Clear skies early will
allow temps to drop mainly into the teens. Different story
across the high peaks which are sitting in the teens this
afternoon, but will gradually warm through the night into the
low mid 30s by dawn as mid-level warm advection develops ahead
of our next system.
Next system begins to approach the region Saturday, but trends
amongst the latest guidance continues to be towards a later
arrival time of precipitation so feel most of the daylight hours
of Saturday will actually be dry. Synoptic setup will be a
developing area of low pressure over the ohio valley Saturday
morning, tracking northeast into the eastern great lakes
Saturday night to the vicinity of ottawa by 12z Sunday morning.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the attending warm front will
usher in seasonably warm temperatures Saturday afternoon in the
40s area-wide to near 50 for some locations. Precipitation
arrives around the 6-8pm timeframe across western new york, and
shifts east into vermont through the overnight hours. By this
time, warm air advection will be strong enough that temperatures
while cooling slightly through the night, will still support
rain as the dominant ptype. Area of some concern will be across
the far northeast kingdom where some cold air damming looks
likely keep temps at or below freezing for a period late
Saturday night into early Sunday where some light ice
accumulations are possible.
Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 409 pm est Friday... To be honest, I was hoping the 12z
guidance suite would be much closer together with their various
solutions than they are. In a general sense, they all still
support the idea that a deep (around 980mb) low pressure system
will move northeastward out of the great lakes that will push a
strong cold front through the region during the day and also be
accompanied by strong gusty winds. However the exact track and
timing differ enough (+ - 150 miles and 6 hours) that it results
in a good deal of uncertainty with regard to specific details
in the sensible weather (when rain changes to snow, how strong
wind gusts get etc). The GFS & canadian show the surface low
moving right up the st lawrence valley. The 12z NAM has moved
westward compared to prior runs and now shows this track as
well. This is a climatologically favored low track. However, the
12z ECMWF shifted a bit east, and is now bringing the low
across the adirondacks on it's way to maine. This is not a
typical storm track. Perhaps it's the start of a model trend
pointing toward a solution that has a low taking a more easterly
track. That said, most of the ensemble model runs still have
the westerly st lawrence track.
Long story short, for this forecast cycle, we are maintaining a
forecast scenario where the low center moves up the st lawrence
valley early Sunday morning, with a strong cold front moving
through by mid-day.
With that, here is what is expected at this point:
Sunday morning should be plain rain across the region as
temperatures aloft and at the surface will be above freezing.
However a cold front will sweep across northern ny by late
morning and then into eastern vt by early afternoon. 850mb
temperatures will drop from about +4c to -5c in a few hours.
This will turn the rain showers to snow showers first at higher
elevations, and eventually lower down. It's a strong front, so
we may have a narrow band of heavier showers with the front, but
at this point the hi-res models aren't showing this feature.
This means high temperatures will be first thing in the day.
Exactly how warm it gets depends on the track of the low.
Further west means a better chance of warmer air getting farther
north. Right now have some low-mid 40s highs in the morning,
dropping back into the 30s for the afternoon. Could be some
places reaching 50f. Or if the low stays further east, then 40f
will be about it.
As the precipitation changes over to snow, the deepest moisture
is moving out, so not anticipating any significant
accumulations. Perhaps 1" or so at elevations primarily above
1000ft, and only some flakes that melt when they hit the ground
in the valleys.
It's the winds that will become the most noticeable aspect
of this storm. After the front passes, strong cold air advection|
will result in deep boundary layer mixing. At the same time a
tight pressure gradient will produce winds of 40-50 knots a few
thousand feet above the surface. A rapid pressure rise on the
order of 10mb 3 hours also suggests ageostrophic enhancement to
the winds. Net result, there is the potential of wind gusts on
the order of 35-45 mph for much of Sunday afternoon and evening.
Some downslope enhancement on the eastern sides of the 'dacks
and greens as the westerly winds flow across, so perhaps
localized higher gusts in those areas. Later forecasts will fine
tune the need for any wind related headlines (probably advisory
Sunday night, the snow showers will come to an end, but the wind
will continue to blow. Expecting 20-30 mph gusts nearly
everywhere as cold air advection keeps the boundary layer mixed.
Lows will bottom out in the teens to 20s, so wind chills will be
primarily in the single digits.
Long term Monday through Friday
As of 409 pm est Friday... Stuck pretty close to the guidance
blend for the period. In general, the 12z guidance was pretty
similar with the large scale features. So overall a reasonably
quiet weather week as large scale trough settles in over eastern
canada. Several weak systems will zip through in the fast flow.
Temperatures will fluctuate some day to day, but overall
average at to just below normal. A few notes on each of the
Monday: still a gusty brisk day thanks to a reasonably tight
gradient still existing between the departed low pressure and a
ridge of high pressure that will start to build in. Thinking
we'll still see winds of 25-35 mph across much of the region
during the day. By evening, winds slack off and start to
transition to a southerly flow. This may cause some weakening
lake effect snow showers streaming off lake ontario to shift
position and move into the st lawrence valley. Not expecting any
significant accumulation, and have only 20-30% pops for that.
Tuesday: looking pretty nice. Southwest flow will bring in
warmer temperatures. Weak ridging should result in fairly clear
skies. Highs well into the 40s for most of the region.
Wednesday: a weak cold front will move through. Perhaps a few
rain transitioning to snow showers (especially across the
northern ny & vt mountains), but it looks pretty weak. Not
thinking it will have any impact on those traveling for the
Turkey day: chilly but mostly dry. Typical late november
weather. Couldn't rule out a flurry here or there as westerly
flow will advect some moisture off the great lakes causing
fairly cloudy skies. Given trajectory of the overall flow,
any organized lake effect snow bands will remain south of
the forecast area.
Friday: models indicate a weak shortwave moving across the
region. Could be a few light snow showers. Don't see anything in
the models at this point indicating anything major precipitation
wise, so continued good traveling for those enjoying the
holiday. Temperatures again only in the 30s for highs, cooler at
Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 00z Sunday...VFR expected through the period with
clear skies giving way to mid high clouds increasing from west
to east after 06z. Light calm winds expected overnight before
turning southerly and increasing to 5-15kts after 12z Saturday.
Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Definite
Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.
Likely ra, chance shra, chance shsn.
Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shsn.
Monday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. No sig wx.
Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.
Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Tuesday night:VFR. Chance shra, chance shsn.
Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
Btv watches warnings advisories
near term... Banacos
short term... Nash
long term... Nash
aviation... Lahiff verasamy
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Plattsburgh International Airport , NY||4 mi||42 min||Var 3||10.00 mi||Fair||28°F||12°F||53%||1019.4 hPa|
|Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT||20 mi||41 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Fair||25°F||16°F||69%||1019.7 hPa|
|Franklin County State Airport, VT||24 mi||40 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||26°F||15°F||66%||1019.6 hPa|
Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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|Weather Map ||IR Satellite Image from GEOS|
GOES Local Image of Northeast EDIT
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (19,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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