Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parc, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:53PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:43 AM EDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 4:01AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 739 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of rain from late evening on. Patchy fog late.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Patchy fog in the morning, otherwise occasional rain.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers in the evening.
Friday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain or snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parc, NY
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location: 44.68, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 250546
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
146 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will give way to low pressure tracking through
the region from Wednesday onward into the first part of the
upcoming weekend. Plenty of clouds along with a periodic threat
of showers or light rain are expected during this period as
temperatures trend cooler. Behind this system, confidence is
increasing for a substantial warm-up by the early to middle
portions of next week as high pressure returns to the northeast.

Near term until 2 pm this afternoon
As of 146 am edt Wednesday... Going forecast in good shape with
just some minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points based on
current conditions. Temperatures should not fall much more with
cloud cover over the region and deeper moisture light rain
moving up into the region... Which going forecast has handled
well.

Previous discussion below:
another outstanding day continues to unfold across the area as
departing high pressure, ample Sun and modest southerly return
flow have boosted afternoon temperatures well into the 60s to
lower 70s. Humidity levels remain on the low side, but not as
extreme as we saw yesterday as southerly trajectories are
transporting a slightly higher dewpoints into the forecast area
on the back side of the surface high.

For tonight into Wednesday we continue to watch low pressure and
associated moisture lifting slowly northward from the ohio
valley mid atlantic states. High clouds will slowly thicken and
lower over time with chances of showers increasing late across the
southern and western portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures
to run somewhat milder and more uniform as longwave radiative
processes become minimized later tonight - mainly 40s with a few 30s
in favored northern mountain hollows. Models remain consistent in
showing the aforementioned moisture phasing with a digging northern
stream upper trough approaching from the great lakes and southern
canada tomorrow, and our current idea for increasing clouds and the
threat of light rainfall still looks good as we progress into the
daylight hours on Wednesday. The devil lies in the more discrete
details in regard to how "steady" this rainfall will eventually be
through the day with most recent hi-res guidance now suggesting a
more showery regime with orographic influences as the nose of a
modest southeasterly 30 kt jet lifts through the region. As such,
overall QPF was lowered slightly with p-type characterized as more
showery than a steady all-day rainfall. Pops will remain high
however, so any outdoor recreational interests should be planned
accordingly. Given the abundance of clouds and light precipitation
around highs will trend cooler and range mainly through the 50s.

Showers then continue on and off for Wednesday night as the parent
upper trough tightens atop our area. Good PVA and moisture
convergence is associated with this feature, and combined with
relatively cool 700-500 mb thermal profiles high pops will be
maintained. There could be a few wet snowflakes mixed in at the
highest summit levels later at night but precipitation will be
largely characterized as light rain or showers. Given a near neutral
thermal advection regime in the lower levels minimum temperatures
should run quite similar to tonight - mainly upper 30s to mid 40s or
so.

Short term 2 pm this afternoon through Friday
As of 321 pm edt Tuesday... The surface low will exit to our northeast
Thursday, allowing for Wednesday's precipitation to further
taper off into more orographically-focused showers throughout
the day Thursday. With the surface low departing towards the
canadian maritimes, the predominant flow over the forecast area
will be northwesterly westerly. While wrap-around moisture will
be decreasing throughout the day as the low pulls away further
into eastern canada, enough moisture will still be present
during the day to support an additional tenth to two tenths of
an inch of rain in favorable upslope areas of the western slopes
of the northern adirondacks and green mountains. Other areas,
including the champlain valley, will be more prone to
downsloping and pick up lower accumulations on the back end of
the system Thursday.

Thursday night will be drier as shortwave ridging builds in.

Friday the forecast turns tricky as models struggle to come to a
consensus on the interaction of two shortwave features. The
longwave pattern will feature a broad trough digging over the
eastern half of the country, containing multiple pieces of
embedded energy with questionable interactions. A southern
stream cutoff low will lift out of the southeast Friday just
ahead of a potent northern stream wave digging into the great
lakes region. Initially, thinking was that the southern stream
low would go out to sea, leaving the north country dry in
between features Friday. However, subsequent model runs
continue to trend slower with the northern wave, which would
open the door for the cutoff low to our south to lift into the
northeastern us and bring us some rain Friday. Both the 12z
runs of the GFS and NAM are favoring this solution, while the
00z ECMWF and 12z gem model runs continue to keep the north
country drier Friday with the low tracking to our east. Current
thinking for this forecast package is that the track of the low
will lie somewhere in the middle of the two extremes, so
discounted the outlier 00z ECMWF solution and favored more of a
12z GFS nam gem blend in handling this system. The main changes
to the forecast that this supports is increasing our pops
Friday, particularly during the afternoon evening hours, and
lowering our daytime temperatures slightly for Friday. Stay
tuned for future forecasts as uncertainty is fairly high during
this time frame.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 321 pm edt Tuesday... The weekend will start off cooler and
showery on the back end of the departing system. After the
passage of a cold front, flow will become increasingly
northwesterly Saturday, advecting in cooler, drier air from
canada. The good news is the coldest air will remain well to our
north, so the cool down behind the front won't be anything
extreme. Surface temperatures will be generally in the 50s
Saturday, then fall into the 30s Saturday night as northwesterly
flow continues. Any lingering precipitation from the upper
trough will end Saturday night. Sunday will be drier, albeit
cooler, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

After a slightly colder than average weekend, Monday will
feature a pattern shift that will usher in much warmer weather.

High pressure over the ohio river valley Sunday will shift to
the east coast by Monday, putting our forecast area in
southwesterly return flow to start the work week. Both the
deterministic ECMWF and GFS are in agreement with keeping the
high pressure anchored off the southeastern us coast through
midweek. A quick look at the GEFS ensembles also shows fairly
good support for anomalously high heights building over the
east coast next week. For us here in the north country, that
means sunshine and temperatures well above normal are looking
increasingly likely by midweek.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 06z Thursday... Deeper moisture moving up into the region
early this morning from the south will allow forVFR ceilings to
lower into the MVFR category after about 14z and remain there
through about 02z when some periods of ifr ceilings may
develop... Especially across northern new york. Despite
increasing chances for rain this morning visibilities will
remain in theVFR category and will eventually lower into the
MVFR category after about 21z when precipitation becomes a bit
more steady. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through
the period.

Outlook...

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday:VFR. Chance shra.

Friday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra, chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Evenson jmg
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY4 mi50 minSSE 610.00 miFair51°F35°F54%1018.1 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT20 mi49 minS 11 G 2210.00 miFair58°F35°F42%1018.6 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT24 mi48 minS 910.00 miFair58°F33°F40%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmSE4CalmCalm--SE9SE11SE12SE14
G19
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SE12SE8S7CalmSW4CalmCalmS3SE3S6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE6SE7SE9SE10SE10SE10SE9SE10SE10SE8SE8S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW6W6NW5W4CalmW4NE7E10NE7E6E8E7E9--NE6E63SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.