Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plattsburgh, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:55PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 3:37 AM EDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 7:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 131 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Overnight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog late.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Patchy fog early.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Friday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plattsburgh, NY
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location: 44.69, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 200636
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
236 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature
across vermont and northern new york during the next 5 to 7
days. Hurricane jose will remain south of new england, but
onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low
clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern vermont
tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions are
expected to remain dry with temperatures well above seasonal
averages for mid to late september.

Near term until 3 pm this afternoon
As of 744 pm edt Tuesday... No significant changes for this
evenings update. Lowered pops a bit since there isn't much in
the way of showers on radar. Previous discussion follows.

The quiet weather conditions will continue through the near
term with a fairly narrow but strong high pressure ridge
anchored over the region. This ridge will keep the brunt of the
effects from jose southeast of the forecast area. There is a low
chance a few showers will make it into the far southeast part
of the forecast area tonight so will hold on to the 30 pop
there. Any rainfall which occurs will be light. Otherwise,
models still indicate patchy fog, mainly in the favored areas,
although there could be light fog in the champlain valley.

Winds are expected to turn northerly at 10-15 mph on Wednesday
as they respond to the cyclonic circulation of jose. Overnight
lows will be above normal again tonight, in the 50s to lower
60s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 70s
areawide.

Short term 3 pm this afternoon through Thursday night
As of 331 pm edt Tuesday... 12z guidance suite all in agreement
that the high pressure ridge will keep us high and dry.

Wednesday night: we'll have a little bit of a northerly wind
across the region, perhaps staying up 10-15mph in the champlain
valley due to some channeling down the valley. Could see a
little bit of patchy fog in the protected valleys, but in
general look for mostly clear conditions and continued mild.

Lots of 50s across the region, except around 60f near lake
champlain.

Thursday: with 925mb temperatures around 17c, and plenty of
sunshine, temperatures will top well into the 70s, with a few
lower 80s in the champlain and st lawrence valleys. Nil pops.

Thursday night: winds weaken, so some excellent radiational
cooling looks to set up. Expect the cold locations, like saranac
lake, could drop into the upper 30s. For the rest of the area,
look for upper 40s to lower 50s. Patchy fog should make a return
as well.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 331 pm edt Tuesday... 12z longer term guidance (gfs, ecmwf,
canadian) are in excellent agreement through Sunday. Some
differences start to crop up after that, namely in how the
models handle the interaction of the massive ridge and hurricane
maria as it should be coming up the east coast next week. Given
the confidence through the weekend, the only deviation I made
to the model blend was to increase high temperatures over the
weekend toward the warmest guidance and to yank out some
spurious small chances of precipitation. Bottom line -- expect
dry summer condition to continue through Monday. 925mb
temperatures will increase a degree or two each day through
Monday, topping out around 20-22c Sunday and Monday. Given full
sunshine, it's not out of the question that we touch 90f in a
few spots (especially parts of the champlain valley) each
afternoon. At this point I only went as warm as 84-88f both days
which was based on some of the warmest guidance I could find. I
suspect guidance will be playing a little catchup given the
level of warmth for this time of year. Come Tuesday the gfs
suggests a backdoor front tries to come in from the northeast,
with cooler temperatures and a small chance of showers.

Meanwhile the 12z ECMWF suggests the ridge remains in place, but
the remnants of jose spreads some moisture northward, resulting
in a small chance of showers.

Given all of the tropical activity, first of all -- always
follow the NHC forecasts. Secondly, jose and maria and their
possible interactions with each other and how they feedback into
the large scale ridging in place can not accurately be predicted
typically beyond roughly 5 days (Sunday). So thus the
confidence in the forecast starts decreasing rapidly after that
point.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 06z Thursday... Fog formation once again tonight at mpv,
slk, pbg and mss. Btv will remainVFR. Have tried to time when
the fog will form using a persistence approach. Ifr conditions
are possible as well as MVFR. All sites will return toVFR after
13z.

Outlook...

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Nrr
near term... Neiles nrr
short term... Nash
long term... Nash
aviation... Neiles verasamy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 6 mi37 min WSW 5.8 57°F 67°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
45166 12 mi37 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 66°F 69°F61°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY3 mi44 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F96%1016.3 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT21 mi43 minENE 310.00 miFair62°F60°F93%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11SE11S7S7S5SE5SE6SE9SE12SE11SE8SE6SE7SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE7SE5SE56E5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmCalmS9S8SE11
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE7SE8SE7SE6SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.