Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:25PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 9:36 AM EDT (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:52PMMoonset 12:59AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 304 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201806201515;;815971 FZUS53 KAPX 200704 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 304 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-201515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201036
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
636 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Near term (tonight)
issued at 155 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
impactful weather: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
pretty quiet out there early this morning. Sfc high pressure was
draped across upper michigan with clear skies and drier low level
feeding in out of the ene. We still had some cloudiness across the
srn cwa, due to two areas of convection north of a frontal boundary
stretched from iowa through NRN il in. Temperatures were generally
in the lower half of the 50s in the clear skies of the NRN cwa, and
in the lower half of the 60s in the SRN half. There was a cold front
pressing south out of ontario, associated with a shortwave from an
upper low over eastern canada. This front had little to no moisture
with it, and all forcing from the shortwave was weak, and weakening
with time.

The canadian shortwave tracks SE through the day and night, shoving
the moisture starved cold front into NRN michigan tonight. No
precipitation expected with this feature, but we will have some
cooler h8 temperatures trying struggling to sneak into eastern
upper. Meanwhile, that same shortwave presses the frontal zone to
our south, even further south over this time, and the ability for
convective blowoff to get into NRN michigan will be diminished.

So, not exciting at all. Generally more Sun expected today, with
maybe a little lower level cloud arriving with the cold front
tonight. A light northerly wind will turn more ene tonight, with the
development of lake breezes anticipated this afternoon.

Highs generally 75 to 80f with lows generally in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, middle 40s in typically colder locations.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 155 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
high impact weather potential: none
pattern synopsis forecast: high pressure will continue to move south
out of canada and over the great lakes through Friday. Meanwhile, a
cutoff low, currently visible in water vapor imagery over montana,
is expected to weaken a bit and open up, before strengthening again
near the NE ia border as the left exit region of the jet provides
some upper level support. As alignment with favorable upper level
forcing wanes Friday, the cutoff will once again weaken and open up,
and begin lifting towards the great lakes. Tied in with all of this,
another area of high pressure will be over nunavut by mid-week, and
dropping south to near hudson bay by Saturday. This will bring a
cold front near the region from the north, along with the surface
low from the south.

Primary forecast concerns: overall the short term will continue to
be quiet, with near normal temperatures and mild dewpoints. The
initial chances for rain, currently tied to the system lifting
through the plains and into the great lakes, really don't start
creeping in until Friday night and will be discussed more in the
long term section below.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 155 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
the primary concern over the long term continues to be the weekend
rain chances, especially Friday night into Saturday. As was mentioned
yesterday, I still have a bit of concern and uncertainty with this
system as it is coming from an expected cutoff that isn't fully
developed yet. There has been a noticeable shift south in some
guidance from yesterday, in fact over the last 6 runs or so the gfs
has sped up a bit and moved south. The euro has similarly shifted a
bit east and south over the past couple of runs. Right now it is
looking like better chances will be around saginaw bay, and
generally east of i-75. But i'm still not sold on this solution
right now. Given both the propensity for these things to end up
further south than progged early on, as well as the presence of the
high pressure bringing a colder airmass in from the north around
this time, there is still the possibility of the system and precip
getting displaced south and or east of the area.

The high pressure moving out of nunavut also brings the possibility
of rain development with the cold front as it moves through the
area, but that looks to remain as more of an elongated front with
weak forcing that won't produce rain here. This high pressure will;
however, bring another period of near normal temperatures and
comfortable dew points into early next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 635 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Vfr...

vfr conditions expected through the period with only some passing
high and mid level clouds. Light winds through the period with
afternoon lake breezes.

Marine
Issued at 155 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
high pressure and light winds will lead to afternoon lake breezes,
before a moisture starved cold front drops in out of the north and
turns winds more out of the ene overnight into Thursday, while also
increasing just a bit. High pressure then takes hold again across
the region with a continued light easterly flow ahead of the next
low pressure and chance of showers Friday night into Saturday for
mainly lake huron. Winds and waves expected to be all sub-advisory.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi57 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 63°F 1013.9 hPa
45022 49 mi37 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 60°F1014.8 hPa (-0.6)59°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi49 min ESE 1 G 1 61°F 1013 hPa52°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi99 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds61°F53°F77%1013.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair66°F57°F75%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E8E7E5E4SE5SE5NE4E6E3E7SE6E4SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm
1 day ago--------------NW4NW9NW5NW4N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE9E8
2 days agoSW5SW7SW6W7W7W8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.