Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:07PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 12:59 AM EDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 5:31PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Overnight..South to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming light. Isolated showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201705231015;;055340 FZUS53 KAPX 230205 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1005 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-231015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230354
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1154 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Update
Issued at 920 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
a shortwave is crossing eastern upper, within a large scale upper
trough to the n/nw. This is occurring north of a warm front that
was pushing into wisconsin. A band of showers has fired off in a
zone of low to mid level warm advection, which is now crossing
into far NW lower michigan and the straits region. This band is
likely to hold together enough to provide a period of mainly light
rain to much of NRN lower, but areas north of m-32 are expected to
have the strongest forcing into the overnight hours. Maybe up to a
tenth of an inch of rain, despite fairly high cloud bases, as the
reflectivities were fairly respectable. There have also been some
isolated lightning strikes, so added that to the forecast. Skies
should partially clear behind this departing wave overnight, with
winds becoming rather light. The light winds combined with wet
ground and slightly increased sfc dew points, lead to a higher
confidence in the development of areas of fog overnight.

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Vertically-stacked low pressure remains
centered over southern ontario this afternoon... With deep cyclonic
flow across the entire upper midwest and great lakes region. Potent
short wave riding thru the fast 500 mb flow has pushed east of our
cwa... Resulting in a rapid diminish in shower activity even across
northern sections where lift and moisture were maximized. A few
breaks in cloud cover are trying to develop in our far southern
counties... But self-destruct sunshine will likely win out with
additional low clouds quickly develop again due to enhancement to
diurnal instability.

As we head into tonight... Another spoke of energy will slide thru
mainly northern lower michigan this evening within the fast 500 mb
flow... Producing additional scattered showers and serving to
reinforce our low cloud deck. A temporary break in the action
overnight along with a few breaks in cloud cover will allow for some
fog development as temps fall mainly in the 40s for overnight lows
will small dwpt depressions. Another area of low pressure and
associated moisture will lift NE toward michigan on Tuesday...

producing another round of sct/nmrs showers across mainly northern
lower michigan. Near term models suggest enough diurnal
destabilization during the afternoon (mucapes of 500 to 750 j/kg) to
warrant a slight chance of thunder in portions of northern lower
michigan. High temps on Tuesday will warm in the 60s across our
entire cwa.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Remaining unsettled and a little cool...

a cutoff upper level low pressure system will continue to result in
showery and somewhat cool weather across the region. There could be
showers just about anytime during this period as upper level
impulses circulate around the parent upper low. Along with the
showers, lots of clouds will continue to combine with below normal
temperatures to make it seem a little on the dark and dismal side.

Not the kind of weather most people hope for this time of the year,
though any rainfall is beneficial as we haven't had a whole lot over
the last few weeks. High temperatures will be in the lower and
middle 60s with lows in the middle and upper 40s.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
pattern remains tough to get a handle on for the extended. For most,
the first half of the holiday weekend looks to remain rain free,
with some guidance wanting to include some scattered light showers.

Lots of differences as we get into Sunday and Monday, however.

American guidance is the most aggressive, with rain starting Sunday
afternoon and going through Monday. But given the recent poor
extended performance and continued tough to predict pattern, I don't
have a lot of faith in it. European guidance isn't completely dry,
but duration and intensity are much less. Current pops are likely a
bit strung out over Sunday and Monday as a result, hopefully there
will be some convergence in solutions in the next few days.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side of normal.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1150 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
a weak area of low pressure and warm front will lay out in nrn
michigan overnight, while sfc based moisture increases some. Areas
of fog still expected to break out, especially where rain fell
(mainly pln). Confidence rather low on how bad the vsbys will be.

A cold front then pushes into the region tomorrow afternoon for
another round of potential showers into Tuesday evening, with
winds turning more out of the n/nw. However, a weak pressure
gradient will more likely lead to onshore lake breezes.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria into early evening as
low pressure holds north of michigan over southern ontario.

Conditions will drop below criteria tonight thru Tuesday night as
the low level pressure gradient loosens. Periodic chances of showers
will remain in the forecast thru Tuesday night as a series of low
pressure systems impact the area.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Smd
near term... Mlr
short term... Ajs
long term... Alm
aviation... Smd
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi79 min SW 6 G 8.9 48°F 1011.9 hPa
45022 49 mi19 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 42°F 40°F1 ft1012.5 hPa42°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi41 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 50°F 1009.8 hPa47°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi64 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F45°F72%1012.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi64 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F45°F74%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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SW6S7S7SW4Calm
1 day agoE12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE5NE6E7E9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.