Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 6:47PM Friday October 20, 2017 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:40AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1102 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201710202315;;140260 FZUS53 KAPX 201502 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1102 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-202315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201039
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
639 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 343 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Warm and dry to end the week...

high impact weather potential... Minimal. Gustier winds again
today.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Overnight surface and upper air charts
reveal a respectable ridge axis through the midwest with 500 mb
heights pushing 580+ dm into lower michigan. Strong persistent
surface high pressure remains locked across the lower eastern
seaboard with ridging stretching up into the western lakes. Broad
lower pressure resides through the western CONUS with a developing
tighter p-gradient in the western lakes. Otherwise... A warm and fairly
quiet weather pattern remains across the eastern conus... Particularly
by late october standards.

Primary forecast concerns... Minimal. High pressure will largely
remain in control of northern michigans weather through tonight.

Tightening p-gradient across the western great lakes will lead to
another day with gustier winds and marine headlines... But not
enough to worry about any land based wind headlines. High
temperatures today will run a good 15 to as much as 20 degrees
above normal. But after a cursory look at record values for the
20th... Record high temperatures appear just a little out of reach
today (unless temps really overachieve).

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 343 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Unseasonably warm, showers Sunday...

still another couple of days of unseasonably warm days as high
pressure shifts slowly off to the east Saturday and a cold front
approaches from the west Sunday. Meanwhile, a western trough slowly
ejects into the plains and eventually the east over the coming days.

This will spell an eventual end to our unseasonably warm
temperatures next week. So expect partly sunny, breezy and warm
conditions Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A few
spots may challenge record highs with the record for the date of 70
at the soo in jeopardy of being broken. A mild night Saturday night
with lows only in the middle and upper 50s. Shower chances will
increase Sunday from west to east as a cold front moves in from the
west. Highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 343 am edt Fri oct 20 2017
changes are forthcoming with the unseasonably warm pattern going
away (at least temporarily). Western trough moves eastward and takes
what looks like temporary residence over the area. The details of
how deep the trough gets and whether there is phasing with a
southern system moving up from the south are still uncertain. Will
continue to keep the forecast general for now and have chances for
mainly lake effect rain showers for the Tuesday and Wednesday time
frame (at this point it does not appear it will be cold enough for
the first flakes of snow in the higher terrain but still can't
totally rule that out). If the ECMWF ends up bring on the right track
we would be dealing with a bombing out low in the eastern lakes by
midweek but it remains the outlier solution. High temperatures will
drop each day from the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday to the upper
40s to lower 50s Wednesday before rebounding into the lower and
middle 50s Thursday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 639 am edt Fri oct 20 2017
vfr conditions will persist through tonight. However... Llws issues
will persist. Stronger winds aloft this morning will lead to a
period of llws at the terminal sites this morning... Transitioning
to some gustier surface winds later this morning and through the
afternoon. Surface winds weaken again this evening with llws
conditions redeveloping and persisting through the night.

Marine
Issued at 639 am edt Fri oct 20 2017
gusty winds will develop again today particularly on the lake
michigan side... And persist through much of the weekend with sca
winds waves anticipated for much of the time. Have extended sca's
on the mi side out through the day Sunday. Less clear cut for the
lake huron side and whitefish bay although I suspect sca
conditions will be realized for at least parts of lake huron this
afternoon.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi157 min S 8 G 14 57°F 1019.6 hPa
45022 49 mi107 min S 14 G 19 60°F 60°F2 ft1019.6 hPa44°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi119 min SSW 8.9 G 14 62°F 1017.5 hPa31°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi21 minSSW 910.00 miFair67°F45°F45%1020.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi22 minSSW 610.00 miFair68°F47°F48%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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W6W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW8
1 day agoS10
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2 days agoW10
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SW7W10W6W4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmSW3SW5S4S4S7SW9SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.