Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:04PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:54 AM EST (05:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:17AMMoonset 1:53PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1103 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Overnight..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest early in the morning. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Periods of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Areas of blowing snow. Periods of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201712111215;;710335 FZUS53 KAPX 110403 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1103 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-111215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 110447
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1147 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Update
Issued at 926 pm est Sun dec 10 2017
a weak shortwave trough was overhead with a swath of added
moisture aloft pushing SE of NRN michigan. This feature didn't
really have a chance to enhance any lake effect snows since the
banding hadn't really developed yet due to the disruption from the
earlier cold frontal snows. Banding has formed behind this
feature now however, but moisture was gradually thinning with time
and inversion heights were becoming shallower. High pressure will
work into the region over the next several hours before departing
east by Monday morning. This will weaken and back winds
significantly from NW to south by daybreak. As a result, lake
effect will gradually work it's way closer to the shores or go
offshore. No more than a half inch in any area across NW lower or
chippewa county. In this fast progressive synoptic pattern, the
next alberta clipper will quickly be pressing SE into the mid
mississippi valley. Warm advection and deepening moisture, mainly
aloft, will be increasing through Monday morning. Light synoptic
snows will start spreading through NRN michigan from west to east.

This will bring some light amounts of snow, but despite a shallow
inversion, will also feed and energize light lake effect snows
which may be scraping portions of NW lower shoreline, as well as
into western mackinac county. That increased snowfall intensity
doesn't really get going until later Monday morning.

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 325 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Lake effect snow tonight transitions to widespread synoptic
snow Monday...

high impact weather potential... Accumulating snow.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Sharp lake-enhanced trough axis has
dropped south into northern lower michigan as expected this
afternoon... Helping to enhance ongoing westerly flow lake effect
snow showers. Locations with the typical snowbelts have received the
brunt of the snowfall this afternoon... Although even portions of ne
lower michigan are seeing brief bouts of heavy snowfall as a result
of strong convergence along the trough axis. While eastern upper
michigan is still receiving lake effect snow showers... Intensity has
waned with the departure of the trough axis. Thus have let the
advisory expire as of 18z for chippewa county. Advisories still
remain in effect for the big 5 counties in NW north central lower
michigan where westerly flow combined with the trough axis continue
to produce periods of heavy snowfall.

As we head into tonight... Low level flow will shift to the N NW in
the wake of the departing trough axis. Lake snow bands will
reorganize and will continue to target the current advisory areas...

and will also begin to impact other areas around NW lower michigan
such as tvc and mbl. However... With surface ridging and drier low
level air building into our CWA tonight in the wake of the trough
axis... Overall snow band intensity will diminish. Thus... Expect
remaining snow bands at the time of advisory expiration should have
weakened enough to not need any extension of the advisory... At last
at this time.

Lake snow will continue to diminish overnight... And will begin to
transition to a light synoptic snow event as we head toward early
Monday morning. Low level winds will shift to a nearly straight
south trajectory... Which is one of the few directions that brings
lake effect precip to a close across our cwa. Just as this
happens... Synoptic moisture and isentropic ascent will begin to
increase from west to east across our CWA ahead of a fast-morning
low pressure system dropping SE out of south central canada into
illinois and indiana by 00z Tuesday. QPF from this system will
likely be relatively low... Producing sub advisory criteria snowfall
for the day (i.E. An inch or two).

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 325 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Lake effect first, then cold air...

high impact weather potential... Lake effect snow and the coldest air
so far for Tuesday night Wednesday morning.

Pattern synopsis forecast... We continue with the ridge trough 500 mb
pattern that has put the upper great lakes into the cold air. This
has put us into a pattern of a clipper every other day with the next
two expected to be stronger than the previous. Monday night, the
next clipper looks to deepen the 500 mb trough, and then lift out
quickly on Tuesday, allowing for some clearing Tuesday night and
temperatures falling into the single digits over the forecast area.

Possibly below zero f in E upper. Wednesday, the next clipper drops
into the upper great lakes can kicks off the process all over again.

Primary forecast concerns... Monday night into Tuesday, we transition
from synoptic to les as the system moves to the east. Again, with
the cold air and relatively warmer water temperatures, we can get
light to moderate snow fall rates. The issue will be the persistence
of the bands. Winds turn to the north so most of the snow fall will
be along and west of us-131. Tuesday, the 850-700 mb layer begins to
dry out and the amounts begin to diminish to minor to light amounts,
mainly near lake michigan, which continues into Tuesday night.

Wednesday, the clipper begins to move into the upper great lakes, so
we will see snow showers begin to move into the region by the
afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 325 pm est Sun dec 10 2017
high impact weather: periodic lake effect snows with additional snow
possible from a couple clipper systems throughout the extended
period.

The extended period will continue with below normal temperatures
through Friday night. These cold temperatures will continue to
produce periods of lake effect enhanced snows and produce wind
chills in the single digits below and above freezing through Friday
morning... With Thursday morning seeing the coldest of the
temperatures. Models are beginning to agree with yet another clipper
system moving into the great lakes region Saturday... Tracking
through lake superior upper peninsula. This track would provide us
with more normal temperatures on southerly winds and possibly some
rain mixing in at times with the snow both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons over portions of northern lower. Too much uncertainty
this far out in the forecast period to forecast any accumulations
that may occur. Highs will be in the 20s Thursday and Friday, and
then reach into the low to mid 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Lows
will be mostly in the single digits Thursday morning, single digits
to low 10s Friday morning, and then warming some each day of the
remainder of the period... With Sunday morning only dropping into the
low to mid 20s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1144 pm est Sun dec 10 2017
light lake effect snow showers and flurries will gradually push
their way closer to the shorelines, or out over the lakes through
the night as weak high pressure moves across the region and brings
weakening winds that back around to the south by daybreak. Little
to no accumulation for the remainder of the night. The next low
pressure and cold front will bring deepening moisture and light
system snow to the region Monday into Monday evening with a
general 1 to 2 inches of snow to all airports, maybe a shade
higher around mbl. The cold front crosses Monday night, and winds
shift and strengthen out of the NW nnw and will be gusty.

Accumulating lake effect snows will develop and lead to another
general 1 to 3 inches, but amounts could be higher around mbl tvc.

Marine
Issued at 325 pm est Sun dec 10 2017
winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria into this
evening but will drop below criteria overnight as high pressure
builds into the western great lakes region. Conditions will ramp up
again to SCA and possibly gale warning criteria Monday night into
Tuesday as northerly flow strengthens in the wake of a departing
area of low pressure. Lake effect snow showers will continue to
impact much of our nearshore areas tonight... But will transition to
a light synoptic snow event on Monday as that next area of low
pressure drops thru michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Smd
near term... Mr
short term... Jl
long term... Tl
aviation... Smd
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi54 min N 8 G 21 23°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.7)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi54 min NW 6 G 12 18°F 1015 hPa (+0.0)-1°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
W10
G14
W10
W11
G16
W15
G21
W11
G20
W11
G17
W12
G18
W13
G17
W12
G16
W14
G20
NW15
G21
NW12
G17
N11
G14
N14
G18
N11
G21
N13
G20
NW11
G15
N11
G19
NW12
G17
NW13
G17
NW10
G15
N10
G14
N9
G16
NW6
G12
1 day
ago
E14
SE8
G12
SE8
S4
SE3
SE7
S3
NE14
G17
NE14
NE12
G16
E10
G13
E6
G11
N7
G10
NW7
G11
NW11
G14
NW13
G17
N11
G17
N13
G17
N14
G20
N14
G17
N10
G13
N9
G15
NW12
G16
W8
G16
2 days
ago
W10
G18
W15
G20
W14
G21
W17
G22
W13
G24
NW15
G23
NW17
G22
NW11
G17
NW12
G19
NW13
G17
N11
G16
N9
N6
G9
N7
N5
G10
N4
G7
NW3
N5
G8
E7
E10
G13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi59 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast17°F7°F68%1015.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi59 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast19°F12°F74%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrSW3SW7SW5W6SW5SW5SW5SW7SW6
G14
SW5SW8SW8W6W7W7W5NW7NW11
G16
NW10
G18
N9
G19
NW9NW11W5NW4
1 day agoCalmSE5E4CalmE4E3E3CalmCalmN3NE4NE5N6NW8N9N4NW6NW9
G16
NW11NW8NW5NW7CalmSW3
2 days agoSW8
G14
SW8
G16
SW5SW9
G16
SW11
G16
SW9
G18
SW8
G14
SW8SW5W10
G17
SW10
G15
W9
G17
W7
G17
W9W7SW6W5SW4SW4S5S5SW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.