Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:38PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:10AMMoonset 5:27PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1059 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered showers in the late morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201708182300;;575255 FZUS53 KAPX 181459 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-182300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181448
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1048 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Issued at 1048 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
morning satellite imagery and surface map reveals a nearly
vertically stacked surface low just east of anj with the parent
short wave over SE ontario. Widespread moisture cloud cover and
showers (with some hints of lake effect) continue to rotate
through eastern upper michigan and parts of northern lower
michigan... Although showers have been diminishing over the last
few hours. Upstream... Yet another short wave noted over south-
central minnesota with another batch of showers out that way.

Rest of today... Wrap-around cloud cover showers will slowly pull
off to the north east through the afternoon with some erosion of
low cloud cover from the south. But still... A rather
cool cloudy fall-ish day is on tap for the region with temps
running a good 10 degrees below normal.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 325 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, a well defined negatively tilted shortwave
trough and associated sfc low pressure was over eastern lake
superior. Widespread low level convergence was over the region,
especially eastern upper, and the arrival of deeper low level
moisture has resulted in scattered to numerous light rains within
widespread low stratus. The pressure gradient was also tightening
across portions of NW lower michigan in caa, resulting in some gusty
westerly winds for coastal and exposed areas. Temperatures were
slowly coming down through the 60s under the thick low clouds.

The low pressure will slowly track eastward into western quebec by
Saturday morning. The tighter pressure gradient will gradually swing
in over all of NRN michigan through the day, resulting in gusty
westerly winds. Meanwhile, the veil of low clouds will overwhelm
most of the day and into the night for eastern upper and a good
chunk of NE lower. The scattered light rains will continue for much
of the day as sfc troughs rotate around the region through at least
the morning. Certainly expecting a more prolonged period of
scattered light rains into the higher terrain of NRN lower due to
upslope, and across eastern upper within a bit better low level
convergence. Eventually, the deeper low level moisture departs from
west to east, resulting in the end of any light rain, and gradual
clearing partial clearing. Fog is not really a concern, as low
level winds will still be a shade too high.

Highs today in the upper half of the 60s, and lower 70s for
downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight mainly in the upper half
of the 50s.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 325 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: upper trough and weakish shortwave energy will
swing into the eastern great lakes on Saturday, while stronger wave
slides through the ohio valley. High pressure and building mid
level heights for the second half of the weekend.

Primary forecast challenge: isolated diurnal shower chances
Saturday afternoon.

Plenty of h8-h5 moisture still hanging around northern parts of the
area early Saturday as upper trough and weakish shortwave slides
across the area. These lower clouds should fairly quickly give way
to partly sunny skies. Weak boundary layer flow will allow for the
development of afternoon lake breezes, which will likely be enough
when combined with residual low level moisture (pwats of 1"+ along
lake huron coast) to pop a few afternoon showers over northeast
lower. High temperatures 5-8 degrees warmer than Friday, with most
locations in the middle and upper 70s.

High pressure more firmly in control on Sunday, with partly-mostly
sunny skies and high temperatures 4-6 degrees warmer than Saturday -
yielding highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 325 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
an elongated frontal boundary will be draped from the upper midwest
into upper michigan Sunday night into Monday as low pressure works
its way out of the central plains. This low pressure area will
eventually bring this boundary southward across the entire area on
Tuesday, resulting in the best chance of widespread precipitation.

Cooler and drier conditions return for midweek. So showers and
storms possible across the northern 1 3 of the area (especially tip
of the mitt into eastern upper) later Sunday night into Monday, with
rain chances increasing across the entire area Monday night into
Tuesday as low pressure and a fairly strong late summer cold front
pushes through the area. Above normal temperatures to start the
week will trend below normal for mid to late week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 612 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
scattered light rains will continue to impact primarily pln
through much of today and into this evening. Pln can also expect
some potential minor vsby reductions at times over the next few
hours. As deep low pressure tracks eastward thru the northern
great lakes region, westerly winds will increase and become gusty
through the day. Skies will be trying to partially clear from west
to east through tonight.

Marine
Issued at 325 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
low pressure over eastern lake superior will track into quebec
Saturday, while a ridge of sfc high pressure gradually settles in
over NRN michigan Saturday night into Sunday. The pressure gradient
tightens across the region through the day, resulting in advisory
level winds all areas. Winds taper off from SW to NE through the
night, with advisory speeds to end last across presque isle light
Saturday morning. Scattered light rain can be expected through the
day with maybe some isolated light rains into this evening.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz016-019>021-
025-031.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... Smd
short term... Jk
long term... Jk
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45020 36 mi22 min WNW 9.7 G 14 64°F 71°F1 ft60°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi32 min WNW 17 G 20 65°F 1007.5 hPa
45022 49 mi22 min WNW 16 G 21 64°F 68°F6 ft1007.4 hPa64°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi42 min W 12 G 16 65°F 1003.9 hPa57°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi17 minW 11 G 1610.00 miOvercast65°F60°F87%1007.1 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi18 minW 410.00 miOvercast64°F59°F88%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S5SE8S7
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1 day agoSE9SE10
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S9S6S9SE9SE8SE8E6SE6E5E6E5E5E6E6E5SE8SE8SE9S10SE5SE6SE7
2 days agoNW3NW5NW6NW6W5NW9NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E4SE7SE7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.