Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:56PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:08 PM EDT (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 8:36PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 734 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers late.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers, tapering off in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers during the day.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 232354
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
754 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

A deep trough of low pressure over the ohio valley this evening will
shift into the great lakes tonight and Tuesday providing the
north country with a windy and wet Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The rain will end from west to east during the early morning
hours on Wednesday, with total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range
over much of the area.

Near term through Tuesday night
As of 748 pm edt Monday... A very mild late-october night
underway with deep-layer southerly flow in place downstream of
meridional trough across the central great lakes and ohio valley
region. Continues to appear that well-mixed boundary layer will
yield overnight lows in the 60-65f range in the champlain and
st. Lawrence valleys, with mid-upr 50s elsewhere with abundant
mid-upr level clouds in place. Overall, the forecast for
tonight through Tuesday night remains largely unchanged from our
thinking from yesterday and last night with a few minor
modifications due to recent model trends.

Big picture highlights strong high pressure anchored off the
eastern seaboard while a deep upper trough is digging into the
ohio valley this afternoon. As the low strengthens and shifts
north northwestward into the great lakes, the attending frontal
boundary will tap into sub-tropical moisture from the gulf of
mexico, readily seen on today's blended tpw products. Some of
this deeper moisture is already working into the region this
afternoon with surface dewpoints rising into the mid 50s, and a
low marine stratus layer working up the southern champlain and
connecticut river valleys. As the front tracks through the
region late tonight through Tuesday, the deep moisture combined
with strong surface to mid-level winds paralleling the front
will develop a band of moderate to locally heavy rain moving
over northern new york during the morning hours, and vermont in
the afternoon and evening.

Ahead of the front, winds will continue to become increasingly
gusty with the mean 925mb flow from the south southeast
strengthening to 40-50kts. With a more southerly component to
the direction versus southeast, true downslope effects won't be
realized despite gusts in the 30-40mph range. The wind combined
with falling leaves could present an issue with clogged drains
in urban areas, especially considering QPF should be fairly
widespread in the 1-2" range. Rivers should be able to handle
the qpf, so don't think we'll have any concerns there.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
As of 350 pm edt Monday... Models continue to show the back edge
of precipitation associated with cold front exiting central and
eastern vt on Wednesday. With the 500mb trough lagging behind
flow will generally be parallel to the front, making for a more
gradual end to rain showers across central and eastern vt. Sw
flow behind the front could also filter in moist air and clouds
from lake ontario with just a slight to low chance of some
showers over the adirondacks into the champlain valley late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. The aforementioned 500mb trough
looks to swing through the area sometime Thursday, keeping
chance of showers over the north country.

Temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal Wednesday and
Wednesday night will cool to near to slight above normal on

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 350 pm edt Monday... 12z ECMWF is slower to progress the
500mb trough eastward, keeping chance of showers over eastern
portions of the north country Thursday night, while the gfs
shows slight ridging and pwats falling to less than half an
inch. Friday looks to be dry with increasing southerly flow
ahead of another system approaching from the west. Models
diverge on evolution of this system and its upper level support
as we head into the weekend. At this point in time, Saturday
looks to be mostly dry with a longwave trough digging south and
east into the western great lakes region Saturday night.

Potential development of a coastal closed low at the surface
Sunday could bring warm moist air into the northeast Sunday into
Monday. Chance of showers continues into Monday night. Above
normal temperatures are expected throughout the period.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue overall across
the region through 12z Tuesday, with the exception being kmpv
where marine MVFR stratus advecting northward will build into
eastern vermont after 06z. Elsewhere, expanding cirrus deck
will just gradually lower through the night. After 12z, low
clouds shift into portions of northern new york, mainly
affecting kpbg while rain shifts over kmss and kslk and
gradually shifts eastward reaching kpbg kbtv krut after 17z.

Rain will be heavy at times with visibility decreasing to MVFR
conditions at times. Winds will continue to be increasingly
gusty from the south southeasterly in the 15-25kt range through
12z, strengthening to 25-40kts east of kmss thereafter.


Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kts. Definite ra... Chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

A lake wind advisory is in effect through at least Tuesday.

Winds will be from the south at 15 to 30 knots tonight, but
increase into the 25 to 35 knot range on Tuesday. Winds of this
magnitude will create rather choppy conditions, especially on
the northern portions of the lake, and waves will build into the
4 to 6 foot range by Tuesday.

Mpv is not transmitting due to a communications outage. Faa is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Banacos lahiff
short term... Kgm
long term... Kgm
aviation... Lahiff verasamy
marine... Evenson
equipment... Btv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 10 mi69 min SSE 9.7 58°F 59°F1015.8 hPa (-3.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi76 minESE 710.00 miFair63°F55°F78%1017.3 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi74 minS 410.00 miFair66°F55°F68%1017.3 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi75 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F54°F61%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3S6SE13SE12SE14
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE7SE5CalmSE8SE9S7CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW33CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE7CalmCalmCalmS3S5SE8SE8SE9SE10SE13SE11SE7CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.