Wednesday, April25, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:53PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 4:01AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1038 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
This afternoon..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Occasional rain.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Patchy fog. Occasional rain through the early overnight, then showers late.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Becoming mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers Friday night.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. A chance of rain showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 252344
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
744 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Areas of low pressure will affect the area through the upcoming
weekend with near seasonable temperatures and a periodic threat
of showers. Fair and much warmer weather returns to the region
by the early to middle portions of next week as strong high
pressure builds across the eastern half of the nation.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 735 pm edt Wednesday... Current radar shows band of
moderate rain across northern dacks slowly lifting toward the
international border this evening. Have continued to mention
pops near 100% across this area based on current radar trends.

Also, watching another area of light rain moving across
central eastern vt with likely to cat pops. Meanwhile... The cpv
is between areas of rain and will keep pops in the chc likely
range for tonight... Before additional moisture and dynamics with
upper level system arrive around sunrise on Thursday with more
showers. Otherwise... Dewpoints are in the upper 40s to lower 50s
so have bumped hourly temps and overnight lows up several
degrees to match crnt trends. Thinking heaviest precip should be
north of our CWA boundary by 03z tonight.

Previous discussion below:
the forecast remain on track as we head into the evening hours.

Our first wave of light rain is now lifting into northern
counties while a distinct dry slot surges northward in advance
of a slowly approaching upper shortwave trough across the
eastern great lakes. Our area will largely lie within the dry
slot regime this evening into the first half of tonight, and as
such precipitation will trend more scattered and showery in
nature with areal pops lowering into the chance category -
especially for the eastern half of the forecast area. By later
tonight the aforementioned upper trough pivots into the area
with a general reblossoming of activity later tonight. Low
temperatures a blend of available guidance - mainly 40s.

The upper trough then swings through the area during the morning
hours on Thursday as bands of showers pivot east to west across the
area - especially north. The central core of this feature is fairly
compact with rather cool thermal profiles in the 700-500 mb level.

This, along with good PVA and moisture convergence on the front nose
of this feature warrants higher pops in the 60-80 percent range
through the morning hours, again most concentrated across northern
counties. By afternoon the main upper feature begins to exit east so
pops gradually wane toward evening. Highs to run quite similar to
today as winds trend light westerly over time - mainly 50s with a
few upper 40s across the adirondacks.

A brief window of drier weather then arrives for Thursday night as
weak shortwave ridging evolves between the departing trough and
additional energy taking shape across the southeast. Given broad
consistency in this idea among this morning's models a mainly rain-
free night is expected as skies trend partly cloudy over time. Low
temperatures a tad cooler in the upper 30s to lower 40s in

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 348 pm edt Wednesday... Friday morning will start off dry
as shortwave ridging builds in, however some showery
precipitation will spread northward throughout the afternoon as
a surface low lifts out of the southeastern united states.

Models continue to struggle to come to a consensus on the track
of this low, with the GFS remaining steadfast in the furthest
west track, while the previous outlier ECMWF has come into
better line with the NAM gem track that takes the low up the
coast. By Friday afternoon however, models are coming to better
agreement that the aforementioned low will become absorbed into
the broader longwave trough, phasing to some extent with
northern stream energy rounding the trough from central canada.

As multiple shortwaves gyrate within the base of the broader
longwave trough over the northeastern us, the north country will
see an extended period of showery weather through Saturday. It
looks like the entire Friday through Saturday time period
certainly won't be one big washout, but rather on and off
showery precipitation closely tied to individual shortwaves.

These features are notoriously difficult to time this far out,
so have stuck with chance pops for this time period, but expect
to have a better handle of timing location of individual waves
within the next few forecast packages.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 348 pm edt Wednesday... The generally unsettled weather will
continue Saturday night through Sunday night as the dynamic
upper-level trough remains over the northeast. The trough will
also bring a shot of cooler air that will limit temperatures
Sunday from climbing above the upper 40s low 50s. The cold air
advection will also support a well mixed boundary layer during
the day time hours, so Sunday afternoon will feel a little

The pattern shifts Monday morning however as the trough pushes
east and expansive ridging pushes in from the west.

Southwesterly return flow around a building surface high to our
south will support a warming trend for the first half of the
work week. Everything is still on track for us to see temps in
the upper 50s low 60s Monday, then into the low to mid 70s for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Through 00z Friday... Extremely challenging aviation forecast
tonight with regards to ifr lifr potential at our TAF sites.

Current obs show very high sfc dwpts in the upper 40s to lower
50s with limited spread... While areas of moderate rain impact
kmss kslk. Thinking a brief period of ifr vis in the rain is
possible thru 01z at both locations... With ifr lifr cigs
prevailing at kmss. Based on available boundary layer moisture
and rain lifting north... Combined with light sfc winds... Would
not be surprised areas of br fog develop at slk mpv overnight.

Have mention tempo for 2sm in br. Also, some br with ifr vis is
possible at pbg. Otherwise... As wind shift to the southwest at
slk this evening, expect CIGS to lower to ifr conditions and
continue into Thursday morning with developing ifr CIGS likely
toward 06z at mpv rut. Elsewhere at btv expecting mainly MVFR
overnight... As southeast and southwest flow should keep CIGS vis
in the MVFRVFR range. Winds become southwest 5 to 10 knots
with localized gusts 15 to 20 knots possible by midday Thursday.


Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday:VFR. Chance shra.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra.

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg taber
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Taber

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi59 minN 07.00 miLight Rain51°F51°F100%1007.2 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi57 minE 45.00 miDrizzle53°F52°F100%1007.4 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi58 minN 410.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmSW4CalmCalmS3SE3S6S9S6S4Calm--Calm--SE8SE8
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSE4CalmCalm--SE9SE11SE12SE14
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE6SE7SE9SE10SE10SE10SE9SE10SE10SE8SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.