Wednesday, January24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:53PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:39 AM EST (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 240834
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
334 am est Wed jan 24 2018

A trough of low pressure is moving across the area early this
morning and is bringing rain and snow showers to the area. This
system will quickly exit the area and drier and colder air will
move into the region on gusty northwest winds. Below normal
temperatures and dry weather will be the rule for the remainder
of the work week as high pressure builds into the region. A
warming trend will take place this weekend and the chances for
rain will be increasing as well.

Near term through Thursday
As of 333 am est Wednesday... Upper trough continues to move
across the area early this morning... But more favorable dynamic
support is beginning to shift out of the area. Temperatures are
beginning to fall quickly across northern new york and this
colder air will move into vermont. High temperatures are
probably going to be right around 700 am with cold air advection
continuing all day to allow temperatures to continue on their
downward trend. With low level flow becoming northwest could see
a little upslope snow in the mountains... But depth of moisture
a bit limited and thus not expecting much in the way of
accumulations. Gusty west to northwest winds at the surface are
expected for a better part of the day.

Dry weather is expected tonight with clouds breaking up and
winds tapering off as high pressure builds into the region. This
should allow temperatures to fall into the single digits above
and below zero. With high pressure over the area on Thursday dry
weather will continue with more sunshine than today... But highs
generally in the teens to lower 20s.

Short term Thursday night through Friday
As of 333 am est Wednesday... The end of the work week continues
to look quiet yet colder than normal with surface high pressure
centered over the region and an upper ridge cresting over the
great lakes. Outside of some lingering clouds in the northeast
kingdom early Thursday night, mostly clear sunny skies are
expected with another night of good radiational cooling and lows
in the single digits above and below zero. Temps warm up into
the teens northeast to mid upper 20s southwest Friday as the
high begins to shift east and a light southerly flow develops.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 333 am est Wednesday... Little to no change for the first
half of the upcoming weekend as models remain in good agreement
showing the aforementioned surface high pressure anchored off
the eastern seaboard and the upper ridge building over the
northeast. Increasing southerly flow will provide a gradual
warming of temps to above seasonal normals Friday night through
Saturday with lows in the teens to 20s and highs in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

For the Saturday night through Sunday night timeframe the 00z model
suite has actually come into general agreement with the synoptic
pattern, and surprisingly the ECMWF and cmc both have trended towards
the less amplified solution that the GFS has shown the past couple
of days. I'm skeptical of the dramatic shift of the guidance so for
this forecast i've offered a blend of the previous forecast and the
00z models which in general supports less QPF than yesterdays runs,
and slightly cooler temps aloft which results in less mixed
precipitation. Still looks like deep southwesterly flow between the
departing high and approaching upper trough will direct warm, moist
maritime tropical air from the gulf coast towards the northeastern
us with temps Saturday night hovering in the low mid 30s before
warming into upper 30s to low 40s Sunday. Precip looks to begin as a
mix of rain and snow Saturday night into early Sunday, with the snow
level rising to around 2500 feet during the daylight hours on
Sunday, and returning to the valley floor by midnight Monday as a
cold front swings through. It's possible that if the colder
solutions pan out, several inches of snow, albeit wet, may fall
across the higher elevations as 850mb temps only briefly touch 0c.

Stay tuned.

Looking further into next week, as the upper trough swings through
some scattered snow showers look possible though mainly across the
higher terrain, with drier conditions in the valleys. High pressure
looks to return for Tuesday, along with more seasonal temperatures.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 06z Thursday... Area of snow and snow showers across a
good portion of northern new york will result in some ifr
conditions early this morning with improving conditions
beginning to take place after 10z. Conditions will essentially
becomeVFR with respect to ceilings and visibilities during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. Across vermont it will
mainly beVFR but there may be some MVFR ceilings across the
area this morning. Gusty west to northwest winds will be the
rule over the area this morning and afternoon with gusts in the
20 to 30 knot range before tapering off after 00z.


Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance fzra, slight chance sn.

Saturday night:VFR MVFR conditions possible. Chance shra, chance

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Likely ra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson
short term... Lahiff
long term... Lahiff
aviation... Evenson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi47 minVar 610.00 miOvercast25°F12°F58%1008.9 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi45 minWNW 6 G 1810.00 miOvercast21°F13°F71%1009.1 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi46 minNW 16 G 2810.00 miOvercast28°F18°F66%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS25
1 day agoN10N10N10N9N9N5N5N7N7N5N7N6N5CalmE4SE7SE15SE16SE12S14
2 days ago--NE6SE3CalmE3SE3NE8NE6N4N6N5N5N6N6NW4N7N6NW4N6NE7N9N10N9N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.