Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:50PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:17 PM EDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:44AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1036 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear late this evening...then becoming partly cloudy.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers overnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day.
Friday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 212337
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
737 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
Quiet weather tonight under a mild humid southwest flow with
high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast. Very warm temperatures
continue on Tuesday, but an approaching cold front will bring
showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening,
tapering off Tuesday night. The remainder of the week is
shaping up to be cooler and drier with below normal temperatures.

Near term through Tuesday night
As of 716 pm edt Monday... Quiet wx conditions expected through
the remainder of this evening and overnight. High pressure at
the surface and upper-level ridge off the mid- atlantic coast
will combine to bring fair weather and a warm, humid west-
southwest flow over the north country tonight. There may be a
few hours of patchy fog in the usual fog-prone valleys in the
adirondacks and eastern vt, but there should be enough boundary
layer flow to prevent widespread fog. Low tonight mainly in the
60s except around 70 near lake champlain.

More active weather is expected beginning Tuesday afternoon. A
low pressure system will deepens as it moves northward across
the western great lakes into canada as strong 500 mb trof
approaches from the west. A strengthening southwest flow will
advect deep moisture with precipitable water to near 2" and
instability of 1000-2000 j k cape. Increasing shear profiles are
expected ahead of a surface cold front with 500 mb jet of 50
kts resulting in 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kts with 0-1km shear
of 20-30 kt resulting in strong to severe organized storms as
mentioned in SPC slight risk outlook for the area. Highest
threat of severe storms will be 18-00z centered over vt around
21z or time of MAX heating. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty
winds are possible with these storms, but storm motions should
be fast enough to avoid flash flooding. Temperatures will warm
to almost 85 to near 90 across the area as 850 temps near 17c.

The cold front will move across the region Tuesday night and be
east of vermont by 12z Wednesday morning. Still some chance of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as the front passes. Lows
mid 50s to mid 60s.

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 425 pm edt Monday... On Wed a broad cyclonic west
southwest flow aloft with the upper trof axis over the great
lakes will bring partly sunny skies along with with cold
advection will bring a possibility of isolated shower or
sprinkle, mainly across the far north right through Wednesday
night. 850 temps fall to 8-10c and will bring high temps mainly
in the 70s with lows Wed night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 425 pm edt Monday... The upper level trough will be
swinging across the region early in the time period. Dry high
surface pressure will have already moved into the area behind a
cold front so any lingering showers will be light. An extension
of the upper level low will continue to rotate over the canadian
maritimes through the weekend swinging periodic vort maxes
across the region. This will lead to mainly slight chances for
showers over the northeast kingdom where orographic affects will
aid in development. Temperatures will be slightly lower than
normal throughout the period.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail overnight with
the exception of patchy fog at slk mpv between 07-11z. Have
utilized prevailing group 4sm br with tempo of ifr conditions.

Still some uncertainty on areal coverage of fog. Winds quickly
increase between 12-15z on Tuesday with localized gusts to 25
knots expected at mpv btv mss. Lake breezy boundary will keep
winds at 160 to 170 at pbg until midday. Otherwise... Strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop between 18z-00z Tuesday
aftn evening. Localized strong gusty winds are possible,
creating areas of moderate severe turbulence and wind shear,
along with frequent lightning. Storms move east of our TAF sites
by 03z weds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Sisson
near term... Banacos sisson
short term... Sisson
long term... Nrr
aviation... Taber


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 10 mi78 min W 5.8 69°F 72°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi25 minSW 410.00 miFair68°F64°F87%1016.1 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi43 minS 410.00 miFair70°F66°F88%1015.9 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi24 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3S3S4CalmS4S3S5SE7SE9SE10SE12SE12
G16
SE9S43SW64S3CalmCalmCalmSW4
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmSW3NW4CalmW3CalmW5W7
G16
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W9W7W5NW86W654CalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoCalmS3CalmS4S3CalmS5S3CalmS4S4SE4SE10S7656--W75W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.