Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 8:45PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:04 AM EDT (05:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:23PMMoonset 3:04AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1036 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Overnight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Patchy fog. Scattered showers.
Sunday..North winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely early in the afternoon. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms late.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers overnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny.
Monday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Clear.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 232330
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
730 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
Deeper moisture will linger over the north country tonight with
plenty of cloud cover... The threat of some showers... And patchy
fog. We will lose the fog Sunday morning but expect plenty of
clouds and occasional showers as a trough of low pressure moves
into the region. Eventually the trough moves east of the region
on Monday with drier air returning to the area Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be
returning to seasonal normals during this time period as well.

Near term through Sunday night
As of 730 pm edt Saturday... Opted to adjust pops somewhat
downward overnight from a area-wide perspective, generally into
the 20-40% range. Latest WV imagery showing weak shortwave
tracking across the southern tier of ny as of early evening.

Progs suggest this feature will swing through the area later
this evening but with areal shower coverage scattered at best
with many spots remaining largely dry overnight outside a
passing sprinkle. Hrrr output seems to have the best handle on
this evolution so leaned in its direction accordingly. Cloudy
skies certainly the rule with weak low level blocked flow and
decent boundary layer rh, which suggests more of a low stratus-
type night as opposed to fog. As such, have adjusted areal
coverage of any real fog to elevations generally above 1000-1500
feet which have higher probabilities to lie within the cloud
layer itself. The rest of the forecast in regard to winds and
temperatures etc. Remains on track. Have a great evening.

Prior discussion...

on Sunday we will see a somewhat similar scenario to Saturday.

After any fog burns off early Sunday we will still have plenty
of clouds around and as an upper trough moves into the
region... We should see showers flare up again. Not a complete
washout but periods of showers throughout the day... Especially
in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

Showers will begin to end from west to east Sunday night as the
upper trough slowly moves east of the region. Any showers will
mainly be across vermont along with the most cloud cover. Lows
will generally be in the 50s.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 410 pm edt Saturday... North to northwest flow aloft will
remain over the area through much of this period. As a
result... Complete clearing will be a slow process and there
could still be some showers around on Monday... Especially over
eastern vermont as one last shortwave drops down into the base
of the upper trough as it is exiting vermont. Generally keeping
precipitation chances in the slight chance range. Highs will be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. More pronounced clearing takes
place Monday night with high pressure building in. Lows will
generally be in the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s in the
mountains.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 410 pm edt Saturday... Quiet weather is expected for the
first part of the extended with sfc high pressure building in
behind a departing low pressure system to the east. High temps
Tuesday will be right around normal in the upper 70s to around
80. Lows Tuesday night will provide good sleeping weather with
temps in the mid to low 50s with minimal humidity. Clouds will
begin to increase overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of our
next system approaching from the west. New 12z euro guidance has
sped things up by a few hours with precip over- spreading vt by
00z Thursday, but have trended closer towards 00z euro and 12z
gfs with the idea of showers making their way into the st.

Lawrence valley towards 00z Thursday and moving eastward through
the overnight hours... With drier air in place at sfc, initial
precip may not reach the ground. Additionally, can't rule out a
rumble of thunder across st. Lawrence valley with some minor
instability present, so have mention of slight chance of thunder
in the grids for points W of adirondacks. As sfc low pressure
tracks slowly northeastward of international border, precip will
be slow to exit the area during the day Thursday. With a weak
disturbance passing along the international border behind the
main shortwave Thursday night have also kept some lingering
slight chance of showers and clouds in the grids through 12z
Friday.

After this system, our attention turns towards a potential heatwave
kicking off the second weekend of summer. Models are in good
agreement on a subtropical ridge over the eastern us towards the end
of next week with both GFS and euro showing near 595dm thicknesses
positioned across the mid-atlantic new england on Saturday. Initial
925 temps between 24-27c suggest high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s but right now haven't gone completely bullish on high
temps for Friday Saturday... Have adjusted superblend temps up a few
degrees just to show warming trend. At this time, Friday Saturday
highs are in the upper 80s Friday low 90s Saturday but may need to
adjust up more as we get closer. Lows through this period will also
be significantly above normal with temps Friday Saturday night in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Chances of precipitation look minimal
Friday Saturday due to mid-level subsidence however have mention of
slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids... Should anything
develop this warm environment will be conducive to producing
thunder.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Through 00z Monday... Widespread MVFR and light winds through
much of the forecast period with scattered ifr overnight and
higher terrain obscured. Highest probs for ifr to occur at kslk
and krut in the 06-13z time frame. After 18z Sunday some slow
improvement in CIGS expected, especially at kmss kpbg kbtv where
the forecast will show levels lifting toVFR. In terms of
precipitation widely scattered showers will traverse the area
through the period with best coverage overnight and again after
18z on Sunday. Widely scattered to scattered nature of coverage
warrants only vcsh at this point however.

Outlook...

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Wednesday night: MVFR. Likely shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday: MVFR. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Jmg evenson
short term... Evenson
long term... Banacos larocca
aviation... Jmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 7 mi35 min SW 12 G 16 61°F 64°F1 ft55°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi72 minS 310.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1008.6 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi70 minS 410.00 miOvercast58°F55°F91%1008.8 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi71 minS 910.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SE3SE8SE10SE8
G20
S4SE6SE9S5S3S5SE8S9S8S10S6S6S4S3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE34E45SE9SE8SE9SE10
G20
SE7SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW4NW8N15
G19
N12N13N13N12N12NE11
G17
NE10
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NE10
G17
NE14NE14NE14N11
G17
NE9N8NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.