Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 9:10PM Monday May 27, 2019 1:48 AM EDT (05:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:10AMMoonset 1:08PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1003 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Overnight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201905271015;;519736 FZUS53 KAPX 270203 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1003 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-271015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 270337
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1137 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Update
Issued at 940 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
a lot quieter than the last couple of evenings. Vigorous lake
breeze boundary collision between grayling and W branch circa 745
pm resulted in nothing, thanks to a dry stable airmass. CU field
in northern lower mi is rapidly diminishing. Some patchy stratocu
is forming in central and eastern upper mi, now that we are past
peak heating. A broader band of clouds is still just to the north,
across central eastern superior and adjoining parts of ontario.

Anticipate this cloud deck to continue to expand and develop
southward. Eastern upper mi should become mostly cloudy by 4-5 am,
with much of northern lower becoming partly cloudy after that
(cirrus blowoff from the west will contribute to this).

Radiational cooling will be hindered just a touch by this cloud
cover, but not enough to prevent a cool night. Min temps will be
mainly in the 40s.

No major changes needed.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Quiet bonfire weather tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: great lakes remains nestled within
westerly flow aloft along the northern periphery of a strong upper
ridge centered along the gulf coast. Per water vapor satellite
imagery, weak short-wave trough is passing through the western
great lakes with little fanfare across northern michigan. All the
weather action remains confined well south through southern lower
michigan and into the ohio valley, along the cold front that
passed through our area last night.

Across northern michigan, weak surface high pressure and dry air
is in control. We had quite a bit of thick high cloud cover from
the weather to our south earlier in the day. That has largely
thinned and slipped off to the south east leaving some afternoon
heating of the day fair weather clouds across interior parts of
the forecast area. There is a narrow w-e band of lower cloud
cover just north of lake superior that will eventually slip into
the region toward Monday morning.

Tonight: heating of the day CU will fade quickly this evening
leaving mainly clear skies for much of the night. Aforementioned
narrow band of lower cloud cover will begin to slip down into the
region late overnight and result in a bit more clouds for some by
morning. But otherwise, a quiet night ahead with winds going calm
this evening and temperatures dropping down into the 40s.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
high impact weather potential... Heavy rain possible (low probability
for now) Monday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... As a system moves from the c rockies,
and into the c plains, the warm front stretches along a well defined
sfc trough into S lower. The GFS and ECMWF have this system
similarly portrayed at 12z mon, but begin to diverge a bit as we go
into the day, and into the evening the GFS begins to push the qpf,
from a mcs, more north than the ECMWF (see the primary forecast
concerns for more). The system continues to move east into the mid-
atlantic states, allowing high pressure to build into the state and
give us a pause in the rain for about 12 hours. Around 00z wed
(Tuesday evening) the warm front remains, and the main low moves
more out into the c plains. This looks to kick off another MCS that
both models seem to have similar solution with through the day on
Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... The main concern over this will be the
convection that is fired off along the warm front over the 2 1 2
days of the period. The first instance, as mentioned above, is the
difference in the where the QPF goes. The GFS and ECMWF have two
slightly different solutions, as the ECMWF has a MCS that follows
the warm front, which stays somewhat stationary in S lower, and
dumps the rain mainly just south of m-55, and possibly up to m-72.

The GFS deepens a small sfc low in the trough, and pushes the warm
front north. This causes isentropic rain elevated thunder with
possibly heavy rain, north around m-32, while more convection fires
south of there in S lower mi. This seems problematic as the high
ahead on the north side of the warm front helps to produce east to
northeast winds at the sfc. Which would impede the warm air from
moving north much like the GFS idea. The
sref namnest namdng hiresw(arw nmm) all support the ecmwf, so have
used a blend for that. The GEFS plumes show about 3 members with
decent CAPE to support the operational gfs. So think that the
thunder will mainly remain south of the forecast area. So the main
issue will be not thunder, but the possibility of heavy rain. While,
it is possible, not really expected, as it seems that it should fall
with the mcss that track along the warm front.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms Wednesday night
extended (Wednesday night through Sunday)... There's a brief pause
with the rain as the second MCS moves through, and then warm front
resets as the low moves closer and another MCS with the low moves
into the region and rain comes back into the region overnight and
Thursday. The models disagree with the evolution of the system that
drops into the middle of the country. The GFS continues to cut off
the 500 mb low which continues the chances for rain through Friday,
while the ECMWF idea is a more open wave that lifts out and high
pressure dries things out for Friday. Saturday, both models have
rain, but from different systems. However, by Sunday both models
have the trough(east coast) ridge(central conus) configuration that
dries us out for the early part of the following week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1137 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
mainlyVFR thru Monday afternoon. Showers arriving Monday
afternoon evening.

High pressure nosing into northern mi from the NW will provide
quiet wx into Monday morning. However, low pressure advancing from
the high plains will dislodge high pressure, and spread clouds
and eventually precip into the area. CIGS are expected to remain
vfr for the most part, though brief MVFR CIGS are possible late
Monday. MVFR vsbys are likely late Monday, especially at mbl and
tvc.

Light winds overnight. A E to SE breeze develops Monday. Llws
Monday evening tvc mbl.

Marine
Issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
light winds and waves anticipated through tonight. Easterly winds
develop on Monday and remain in place for the next few days. No
marine headlines anticipated at this juncture.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi68 min NNE 6 G 9.9 48°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair49°F46°F90%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE6N4NE5NE6NE6NE7N7N6NE7N4NE5N7E3S3E4Calm
1 day ago--S7SE93S7S5S4S6W8SW6SW8SW8SW15
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2 days agoN3N9NE5NE3CalmCalmNW5N3Calm3N6CalmNE3N63N7N5S9
G16
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G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.