Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday March 23, 2019 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 8:26AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 328 Pm Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers, light freezing rain, slight chance of drizzle and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201903240330;;809261 FZUS53 KAPX 231928 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 328 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-240330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231953
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
353 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 320 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
high impact weather: patchy freezing drizzle light snow possible
late tonight over northern parts of chippewa county.

Pattern synopsis and forecast: surface high pressure centered over
the southern lakes with cold front laid out from west-east over
parts of ontario and manitoba. Very dry ambient airmass, with pwats
only around 0.15". Front will drop into the northern lakes tonight,
with the biggest question being if the atmosphere can saturate
enough (given the dry airmass and weak forcing) to produce light
precipitation over northern chippewa county late. Although there
is currently little in the way of moisture seen along this boundary
over canada, the models continue to quickly moisten the forecast
soundings up toward 850mb late tonight north of m-123 in chippewa
county and produce some patchy light freezing drizzle light snow. It
is difficult to discount general model consensus on light pcpn
chances and will continue to carry this chance in the forecast. Will
also add a mention to this in the hwo.

Temperatures generally drop into the 20s to lower 30s tonight,
although some of the coastal areas along lake michigan may remain in
the middle 30s thanks to continued southwest winds.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal, but some light freezing
rain drizzle will be possible.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A strong cold front will drop through
northern michigan on Sunday, accompanied by a sharp decline in
temperatures. A narrow ribbon of moisture will accompany the front,
though deep layer moisture will reside farther downstate associated
with a system moving into the ohio valley. Upper troughing will dig
into the upper great lakes, deepest over ontario, with persistent
northwest flow over northern michigan through the first part of the
week. Strong high pressure will slide out of central canada, sitting
over michigan Tuesday morning before drifting east late in the day.

Primary forecast concerns... Precip chances types on Sunday.

Quite a temperature gradient associated with Sunday's cold front. As
this boundary advances south through the day, its associated fgen
will slowly weaken, but strong cold air advection will lead to
plunging temperatures. This will complicate precip types, as will
the overall lack of deep layer moisture. Hi-res guidance Sunday
morning suggests a fairly narrow band of precipitation will
accompany the front. As it advances through eastern upper into the
tip of the mitt Sunday morning, overall low level moisture will be
somewhat lacking. Have gone with mainly drizzle and freezing
drizzle, perhaps mixed with some snow showers if moisture can extend
upwards enough to tap into sufficiently cold air aloft. By
afternoon, the front will progress southward into central lower,
probably with enough support and moisture to support scattered light
showers. But the plummeting temperatures will complicate ptypes, as
there will probably be a quick changeover to light freezing
rain drizzle and then some brief light snow showers on the back
edge. There will be a sharp cutoff on the back edge with a very dry
airmass (pws < 0.1") hot on the front's heels. This will provide a
sharp clearing line, with precip pretty much entirely out of our
southern counties by around 8pm. Expect fairly low impact overall
from this potential wintry mix with little to no snow and ice
accumulation. Winds will become blustery out of the north with
falling temperatures... Eventually dropping into the teens Sunday
night.

Strong high pressure and a very dry airmass will lead to sunny skies
for Monday and Tuesday wit temperatures slowly recovering into the
30s and eventually some low 40s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

High pressure drifts off to our east Tuesday night with southerly
return flow increasing heading into Wednesday. This will amplify the
warming trend through Thursday, which looks to be the warmest day of
the upcoming week (solidly in the 50s for northern lower, mid to
upper 40s eastern upper). Moisture will also be on the increase
through midweek ahead of a developing system over the plains. By
late week a front will stretch from the upper great lakes back into
the plains, with a couple areas of low pressure trekking through the
region. Thursday will be just rain given the milder temperatures,
but colder air will return later Friday behind the front, bringing a
changeover to some snow Friday night into early Saturday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1256 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
high pressure over the southern lakes will gradually move away
from the area later tonight, allowing a cold front to sink
southward out of ontario. This front will sag through the area on
Sunday, accompanied by some light rain and snow shower activity
and a wind shift to the north. As temperatures fall Sunday
afternoon, a bit of freezing drizzle will also be possible.

Strong winds aloft in advance of this front will result in llws at
all terminal locations tonight, with west winds up to 40kts
possible at 2000 feet. GenerallyVFR CIGS throughout much of the
taf period with the exception being pln, which will trend toward
MVFR CIGS by late morning Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
high pressure in the western great lakes will drop south into the
ohio valley by late tonight, allowing a cold front to push into
the area on Sunday. Although the airmass is initially quite dry,
a brief period of wintry mix may develop with FROPA over the
northern half of the area. The pressure gradient tightens ahead
of this frontal boundary tonight. Winds will shift from southwest
tonight to northerly on Sunday afternoon behind the front. Marginal
small craft advisory wind gusts are possible across parts of the
nearshore waters of northern michigan tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Sunday for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Sunday for lmz341-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jk
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Jk
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi83 min WSW 12 G 17 36°F 1023.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi83 min S 9.9 G 15 36°F 1025.7 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G23
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S6
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G5
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G10
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G7
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W6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi70 minSW 9 G 1610.00 miFair45°F23°F42%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
G21
N9
G19
NW10
G16
NW9N6N7N8N6NW3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmW6W8W9W10W10W9SW9
G16
S8
1 day agoSW10
G19
SW10S4S53CalmW3NW7NW8NW8NW12NW11
G19
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N15
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G24
2 days agoS6
G17
S7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3N3CalmCalmN3CalmNW4CalmNW7NW7NW5NW5SW7W10W10W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.