Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 9:09PM Thursday May 25, 2017 12:05 PM EDT (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:20AMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1012 Am Edt Thu May 25 2017
Today..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Isolated showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201705252215;;184757 FZUS53 KAPX 251412 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1012 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-252215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251431
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1031 am edt Thu may 25 2017

Update
Issued at 1031 am edt Thu may 25 2017
a soggy morning continues, particularly across N central lower
and far eastern upper mi. This is the outer edge of the precip
shield associated with low pressure in W central oh, moving ne.

Precip has diminished in coverage somewhat over the past 1-2
hours, getting lighter if not ending at places like tvc cad htl.

However, an additional wave of light rain is moving onshore from
apn rogers, and some showers are still seen over lake huron.

Meanwhile, there are some places starting the day with at least a
little bit of sunshine (western chip mack, immediate NW lower mi
coastline). Not many, but some.

Not expecting a lot of changes thru the day today. Light rain,
with a few embedded showers, will continue to wrap back into NE n
central lower and eastern upper mi. Some terrain-induced
enhancement will be seen over N central lower, while precip
coverage will gradually fall off as you move west into NW lower mi
and west of i-75 in eastern upper.

Will lower MAX temps somewhat along the m-37 and m-66 corridors in
nw lower, as well as along east of i-75 in eastern upper.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 337 am edt Thu may 25 2017

One more day of showers...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Pesky closed upper low continues to
slowly move through the tennessee ohio valleys this morning...

associated surface low is centered over western ohio with a
trailing front arcing down through the SE states. Strongest qg-
forcing for ascent and bulk of precip has shifted into the
appalachians mid atlantic coast along and ahead of the front.

Meanwhile, mid level deformation axis stretches through lake
huron and across portions of lower michigan with several bands of
showers pivoting northwestward through the region. The most
persistent showers thus far have been across parts of NE lower
michigan and down through saginaw bay.

Primary forecast concerns... Minimal. Shower chances and timing
through tonight.

Closed upper level low finally expected to advance eastward to the
atlantic coast through this evening and into new england by Friday
morning. Associated mid level deformation axis qg-forcing for
ascent will pivot through the region and weaken in time, with
showers gradually diminishing ending by Friday morning. But we
area still facing several more hours of showers today and into
tonight with the best chances coverage anticipated across NE lower
michigan. Temperatures, still on the cooler side with highs in
the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 337 am edt Thu may 25 2017

Warming temperatures...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: upper level low pressure that's plagued northern
michigan over the past several days will continue to slowly depart
off to our east early today into tonight with mid-level ridging
briefly becoming centered overhead by midday Friday. A couple of
weak shortwaves are expected to ripple through the great lakes
during the Friday-Saturday timeframe preventing the forecast from
including completely dry conditions. However, with limited moisture
and rather weak forcing associated with each ripple in the flow,
scattered showers should be few and far between with many locations
staying dry to start the upcoming holiday weekend.

Primary forecast challenges concerns: low end shower chances and
increasing temperatures.

As was mentioned earlier, despite weak mid-level ridging becoming
centered overhead during the day Friday, several subtle pieces of
energy are expected to race across the area. This may provide enough
support to kick off a few sprinkles or light showers, but will
continue to keep the forecast predominantly dry as the majority of
northern michigan is expected to stay rain-free with partly sunny
skies, light winds, and high temperatures 5 to as much as 15 degrees
warmer than Thursday.

A rather similar story is on tap for Saturday, despite ridging
moving off to the east and being replaced by weak troughing
associated with upper level low pressure that's progged to be
spinning across western ontario manitoba. A weak wave or two
pinwheeling around the southern periphery of that system may once
again be enough to kick off a stray sprinkle or light shower
locally, but another partly sunny and even warmer day is anticipated
for most. High temps on Saturday climbing to several degrees above
normal... Ranging from the upper 60s across eastern upper to the mid-
70s for northern lower (cooler along the immediate lakeshores, of
course).

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 337 am edt Thu may 25 2017
high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms Monday.

Despite not much in the way of high impact weather potential, aside
from a low end chance of a few thunderstorms Monday, the extended
period could feature another stretch of unsettled weather. Upper
level low off to our northwest this weekend, gradually sinks south
and east across the great lakes by early next week. This should
allow for sporadic rain chances perhaps as early as Sunday, but more
so Monday through the end of the forecast period. Near-normal high
temperatures Sunday and Monday gradually fall to several degrees
below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 647 am edt Thu may 25 2017
tricky TAF forecast today. CIGS have been very slow to lower
overnight although there is some low (ifr) cloud cover that
appears to be pushing into NE lower michigan off lake huron into
the apn area. Otherwise... Still anticipate CIGS to lower across
northern lower michigan through the course of the day to at least
MVFR and possible ifr at times... As periodic showers continue to
impact the region.

Showers diminish tonight but MVFR CIGS vsbys linger.

Marine
Issued at 337 am edt Thu may 25 2017
northeasterly winds with gusts up to 20 knots anticipated on the
lakes today, shy of small craft advisory conditions. Winds
diminish tonight and remain on the lighter side heading into the
weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Tba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Tba
marine... Tba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi86 min NNE 4.1 G 7 48°F 1004.7 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 53 mi86 min NNE 9.9 G 12 53°F 1003.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi86 min NNE 8 G 12 51°F 1004.1 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi73 minN 610.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1003.3 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N6N5N7N7NE10NE8NE86NE6NE3CalmCalmN5NW3N4NW5NW3CalmCalmNW5N5N6N6
1 day agoNE3NE7NE6N5N5NE7N76W3SW3E3CalmCalmCalmNW5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4Calm
2 days agoW9
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SW8SW3N6SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4N6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.