Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:23PM Saturday February 24, 2018 2:54 AM EST (07:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:40PMMoonset 2:55AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1051 Am Est Fri Feb 9 2018
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201802100000;;714716 FZUS53 KAPX 091551 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1051 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-100000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240434
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1134 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Update
Issued at 942 pm est Fri feb 23 2018
very little in the way of an update. Scattered light rain and snow
was crossing NRN lower michigan, ahead of a sfc trough laid out
from far NW lower through central lake michigan. Moisture was not
supposed to be into the -10c isotherm for ice crystal activation
and snow light showers (otherwise freezing drizzle drizzle), but
one possibility is that the passing mid cloud seen on satellite
from SW to NE has been able to seed the low clouds still stuck
under a strong inversion. A more likely scenario is that the top
of the moisture is getting some ice activation, around 3500 feet,
which extends into the -8c to -9c range. Either way, this
precipitation is not expected to have any impacts, as it exits ne
lower around shortly after midnight. Still looking for a late
night breaking up of the lower cloud, leading to a decent day
Saturday.

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 311 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Dry weather returns to start the weekend...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: quick moving wave responsible for this
mornings round of mixed precipitation now off to our northeast,
leaving behind plenty of clouds and just a bit of drizzle. Passing
"cold" front doing little for the temperature department, with
current readings in the 30s and lower 40s running several degrees
above normal for this time of year. High pressure building through
the northern plains will build in quickly behind this front,
controlling our weather with dry conditions and a seasonably mild
airmass to start the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: very light precip concerns
into this evening. Cloud and temperature trends through the near
term.

Details: lingering low level moisture and passage of secondary
surface trough may kick off a few sprinkles flurries for a time
early this evening, but definitely shouldn't be a big deal. Skies
expected to scatter out at least some overnight, and with that high
building in bringing light winds, may set the stage for a bit of
fog by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure continues to dominate northern michigan weather
Saturday, bringing dry weather along with it. High and mid level
clouds will slowly be on the increase, but still expecting at least
partly sunny skies. Simply no real cold air around, and quick
modification of overhead airmass will allow temperatures to return
back into the 30s and lower 40s.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 311 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

More freezing rain possible Sat night; very windy Sunday...

primary forecast concern... Freezing rain potential Sat night early
Sunday.

The mild but active weather pattern will continue through Monday. It
still looks like a potent but fast moving area of low pressure
tracks by to our west Saturday night into early Sunday possibly
bringing another period of freezing rain across portions of mainly
interior sections of northern lower. Forecast ice accumulations are
a tenth of an inch or less but this would be more than sufficient to
lead to slick roadways and difficult travel conditions overnight
Sunday. Meanwhile, across eastern upper, a mixture of snow, sleet
and freezing rain could add up to an inch or two of snow and a thin
coating of ice on top of it. Very windy conditions behind the
departing area of low pressure expected Sunday with wind gusts
possibly reaching between 40 and 50 mph. The area will then be in
between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south
Sunday night into Monday. This should lead to precipitation free
weather with slowly decreasing winds. Temperatures Sunday should be
nearly steady or slowly falling from the upper 30s to middle 40s,
with similar highs Monday. Temperatures will slowly rise out of the
middle 20s to lower 30s Saturday night. Lows Sunday night in the
middle and upper 20s.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 311 pm est Fri feb 23 2018
expect well above normal temperatures into mid week as high pressure
moves through the ohio valley, increasing warm advection into the
area. Things get a bit more interesting towards the end of the week.

Another storm system with a combination of rain and a messy wintry
mix could impact region. Current guidance looks a bit overdone on
the strength of the system, and as this corrects the track will
change as well. With temperatures already borderline between liquid
or frozen precip, these adjustments are going to be key for p-type
concerns. Right now it looks like daytime rain, with a transition to
snow as temperatures drop overnight. If we see a northward
adjustment, I would expect increased warm air to bring more liquid
precip, and likely an airmass with higher pwats as it will be
working with gulf moisture. A southward adjustment will bring a
cooler temperature profile, but a much drier airmass. Given the
downstream blocking we are seeing, i'm inclined to think the
adjustment is going to be southward with this system, but we will
see how it plays out over the next few days.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1133 pm est Fri feb 23 2018
cigs continue to lift toVFR from west to east, but upstream cigs
are sliding back to MVFR. This makes sense with a lowering
inversion. Skies also not expected to scatter out until even
later, thus MVFR conditions to last possibly into Saturday
morning. Low pressure and a front push into NRN michigan Saturday
night with lowering cigs, eventually to MVFR again, along with the
next potential light mix of precipitation.

Light winds through Saturday, but llws develops Saturday night as
winds start to increase ahead of the low pressure.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Update... Smd
near term... mb
short term... As
long term... Am
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi74 min NNW 8 G 12 32°F 1025.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 53 mi74 min NNW 9.9 G 14 34°F 1024.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi74 min NW 8 G 14 34°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi61 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast34°F25°F70%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6S55SE7S9
G17
S73Calm5S3SW5W10SW8
G15
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W8W6W8W9W8NW6N7
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmE3CalmNE3NE5CalmSE5CalmN75E6E7E8E5SE5SE4E6E4SE5E4E7SE8
2 days agoN8NW11
G19
NW12N10NW7NW10NW11NW9NW8NW6NW6W4E3NE4W4W5N5W6CalmCalmCalmS3SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.