Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:36PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 10:41 AM EDT (14:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 359 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201704251600;;230685 FZUS53 KAPX 250759 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 359 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-251600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251045
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
645 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 305 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Increasing chances of rain across our NW CWA tonight.

High impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Se low level flow continues across all
of michigan early this morning between departing high pressure now
centered over northern quebec and developing low pressure over the
central and southern plains. An inverted trough extends from the low
northeastward into the upper mississippi valley. Increasing moisture
within this region combined with weak lift from the inverted trough
are producing an area of shower activity across eastern minnesota...

nw wisconsin and western upper michigan. Closer to home... High
clouds continue to increase from NW to SE across our CWA well in
advance of this system... With some mid cloud and thicker cirrus now
moving into our far NW CWA as inferred by mid level returns on the
latest kapx base ref loop as well as colder cloud tops per latest ir
satellite images.

As we move into today... Mid/high clouds will continue to increase/
thicken/lower throughout the day... With low clouds developing
tonight as moisture surges northward ahead of the surface low which
lifts into eastern iowa by 12z Wednesday. Latest short term models
have backed off on the timing of increasing precip chances from nw
to SE across our CWA tonight. This appears to be reasonable given
the rather dry low level air in place across our area. Expect it may
take awhile for this dry air to erode with increasing low level
moisture tonight. Thus... Chances of precip will be confined to areas
along and NW of a line from pzq to tvc and mbl tonight... With all
locations SE of this line remaining dry thru 12z Wednesday. Expect
northern michigan will see another relatively mild day today... With
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s in eastern upper michigan
to the lower 70s in our far SW cwa. Low temps tonight will range
from the lower 40s in eastern upper michigan to the mid 50s in our
far SW cwa.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 305 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

April showers...

low pressure finally emerges out of the eastern plains and heads
northward into the western great lakes while deepening. Models are
struggling with the details but most agree that it takes on a
negative tilt. Moisture initially looks like it affects
west/northwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning
with a slow eastward progression through the day. Will likely see
the development of daytime instability as well. Just how much and
how far north is a tough call but thunderstorms are possible. Lots
of wind aloft as well with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50 knots
and mixed layer capes in the 800 to 1200 j/kg range. The storm
prediction center has the forecast area in general thunder but with
a marginal risk lurking just off to our southwest. It does look like
a close call with the amount of solar insolation likely determining
strength of any storms that do manage to form. Moisture continues to
head eastward across the forecast area Wednesday night increasing
shower chances with continued chances for thunderstorms. A surface
cold front then moves through the forecast area Thursday afternoon
drying the area out Thursday night. It will remain warm through
Thursday morning with cooler temperatures advecting in for Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 305 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Continued unsettled...

extended models are all over the map during this time period,
especially early on. Some guidance brings another area of low
pressure across the region late Friday into early Saturday while
other guidance doesn't even have a system at all. Extended guidance
then converges on another potent area of low pressure moving into
the great lakes by Sunday which lingers into Monday. This scenario
will result in more shower chances as well as cool temperatures.

Although am not buying it at this time, there are hints that it
could turn cold enough for some wet snow (mainly Monday). Overall
confidence is fairly low through Saturday with increasing confidence
in a rainy second half of the weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
clouds will increase... Thicken and lower today and tonight ahead
of low pressure lifting NE into the upper mississippi valley. Cigs
will drop to MVFR tonight as low level moisture increases. Rain
shower chances will begin to increase across far northern and nw
lower michigan tonight... But the chances are too small to include
in the TAF for now. Winds will generally remain from the SE at 10
to 15 kts.

Marine
Issued at 305 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
sca conditions are expected for all of our nearshore areas thru
today as s/se winds continue to gust to 15 to 25 kts. Winds will
diminish tonight... But will likely strengthen again to SCA criteria
on Wednesday. Chances of rain will increase for NW portions of our
nearshore areas tonight... With rain chances gradually spreading
southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of low pressure
lifting into southern wisconsin.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz323-
341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lsz321-
322.

Near term... Mlr
short term... Ajs
long term... Ajs
aviation... Mlr
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi61 min S 8 G 18 55°F 1008.8 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 53 mi61 min SE 15 G 21 60°F 1007.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi61 min SE 9.9 G 17 61°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi48 minSSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F43°F53%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SE74N8NE11NE6NE65NW3CalmSE6SE7SE5E453CalmCalm5453SE8S10
1 day agoN13N12N12N14
G20
N10NE12NE13N12N10N7N6N5N5N7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS64
2 days agoN4N34NE7NE7NE7NE6NE5NE3SE3S3CalmS3S3Calm3SW7SW5SW6SW4SW4SW5W7N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.