Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 9:13PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:42 PM EDT (02:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:27AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 954 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Overnight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog. . Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201707231000;;676903 FZUS53 KAPX 230154 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 954 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-231000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230150
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
950 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Update
Issued at 950 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
sfc low pressure continues to push east of detroit this evening,
and skies were trying to clear from west to east. However, as the
sun GOES down and we start cooling after minimal mixing today,
clouds will expand back across the region, aided by low level
troughing across the great lakes NRN michigan. Already starting to
see this occur. In addition, storms fired off in wisconsin on a
sfc trough, ahead of a potent shortwave dropping into NRN mn.

Cirrus blow off from these storms was also expanding in from the
west. The shortwave will continue to drop SE tonight with forcing
from dpva and upper divergence increasing over the region. Also,
another low pressure develops over NRN lake michigan by daybreak,
within the low level troughing. Chances for showers and even a few
storms increase with time through the night, and especially on
Sunday. If there is any daytime heating Sunday (which may prove
difficult, then maybe we can get a few strong storms. Another mild
and fairly muggy night with dew points in the 60s. May have to
bump overnight lows a bit. Some areas may not drop out of the
upper 60s. Despite the increase in chances for showers, did have
to slow down it's arrival. Sure enough though, good chances for
showers are on the way.

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 323 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Increasing chances of thunder Sunday... Possibly severe...

high impact weather potential... Marginal chance of severe storms
with a slight risk along and south of m-55.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Low pressure continues to gradually make
it's way eastward thru northern illinois toward ohio late this
afternoon. Convection ahead of this system has consolidated into one
general area now impacting the eastern great lakes and the northern
appalachian mountains. Closer to home... Scattered light showers
continue to develop across mainly northern and eastern portions of
our CWA along the backside of lingering low level moisture
associated with this departing system. A look upstream shows our
next area of vertically-stacked low pressure poised just north of
minnesota attm... Generating an area of convection just ahead of it
driven by strong upper level divergence and fueled by a modest
instability axis and 850 mb theta E ridge.

As we head into tonight and Sunday... This northern stream system
will drop SE into lake superior by 12z Sunday... Reaching the straits
area by 00z Monday. Upstream instability axis and 850 mb theta e
ridge just ahead of the stacked low will begin to slide into western
sections of our CWA by around 12z Sunday... Slowly making its way
eastward thru our area during the rest of the day and into the
evening hours. This timing coincides nicely with peak heating... And
the combined effort may produce a few strong severe storms on
Sunday... Especially during the afternoon early evening hours. Spc
still shows almost all of our CWA within the marginal risk for
severe storms... With locations along and south of m-55 within the
slight risk for Sunday. Will increase thunder chances later tonight
across NW sections of our CWA as the instability axis approaches...

with thunder chances everywhere by Sunday afternoon.

Overnight lows will cool back into the low to mid 60s. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will range from the mid 60s in eastern upper
michigan to the mid 70s across our southern cwa.

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 323 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
showers are expected to diminish from west to east overnight Sunday
as the upper level wave clearly evident on water vapor imagery over
southern manitoba slides southeastward across northern michigan. Low
clouds will likely hang tough Monday morning but surface high
pressure then builds in leading to slowly clearing skies in the
afternoon from northwest to southeast (have slowed down the clearing
by a bit). In addition, a northwest flow aloft Monday will lead to
cooler temperatures. Rising heights in combination with a return
flow around departing high pressure will bring warmer temperatures
Tuesday. Lows Sunday night in the middle 50s to around 60. Highs
Monday in the lower and middle 70s. Undercut the blend a little
Monday night and went with lows ranging from the middle 40s to lower
50s due to radiational cooling. Warmer with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s Tuesday.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 323 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
long range guidance continues to be in good agreement with the
extended period beginning with surface high pressure over the great
lakes region Tuesday. This high pressure will depart to the east as
a cold front associated with a low pressure system over james bay
approaches from the west. Warm air advection showers will begin late
Tuesday night early Wednesday morning with chances remaining through
Wednesday night early Thursday morning with cold frontal passage and
lingering showers behind the departing front. High pressure then
builds back into the area behind the departing system, returning
partly cloudy skies and rain free weather for the weekend. Daytime
highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while lows will drop down
into the mid to upper 50s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 800 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
minimal mixing today with a late clearing trend ought to set up a
night of redeveloping expanding stratus back into the airports,
with potential areas of fog. Can see ceilings and vsbys heading
back to MVFR tonight. There is a good chance for showers and
storms overnight and especially Sunday, as low pressure crosses
right through NRN michigan. Confidence is rather high with cigs
going MVFR as the sfc low passes through Sunday, within cooler and
still moist low level air on the NRN periphery of the sfc low.

Rain chances taper off from west to east through Sunday night.

Winds will remain rather light and somewhat variable, as sfc
troughing bisects NRN michigan. After passage of the sfc low
tomorrow however, the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in
some gustiness.

Marine
Issued at 323 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through tonight... But
will possibly reach criteria by Sunday afternoon as easterly winds
strengthen ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Chances of
showers and storms will increase from NW to SE tonight and Sunday
ahead of low... With some stronger severe storms possible Sunday
afternoon into early evening.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Sd
near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... Tl
aviation... Sd
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi62 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 1009.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 53 mi62 min Calm G 1 70°F 1009.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi62 min Calm G 1 69°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi49 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F71%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3Calm45CalmN3E5SE5CalmSE4NE4N3NE6N4N4NE7N7N6N4NE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S33SW3W4SW54NW6NE9NE9NE5N4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3CalmSW6SW7W9W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.