Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:58PM Friday March 24, 2017 4:00 AM EDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:49AMMoonset 3:16PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1053 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Overnight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers, drizzle and freezing drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201703241100;;982288 FZUS53 KAPX 240253 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1053 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-241100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240728
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
328 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 327 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Periodic light freezing rain...

high impact weather potential... Light freezing rain/icing this
morning and possibly again tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Split flow pattern across the conus
this morning with the southern branch diving into a closed mid
level circulation across the SW CONUS where a strong mid level
short wave and occluding surface low pressure system is
found... And warm front arcing up through the midwest/southern
lower michigan. Northern branch runs across the northern tier of
states and across the great lakes with a strengthening upper jet
core running across the far northern lakes region. Northern stream
surface low resides across hudson bay with a cold front swinging
through ontario... Pressing into the far northern lakes. Strong
warm advection forcing along and north of the warm front has
produced several batches of precip (and spotty thunder) sliding
across the state overnight. Precip is mainly liquid... Causing some
fzra issues across upper michigan. Temps are above freezing
across northern lower michigan although dewpoints remain in the
20s and some spotty light icing has also been reported by a few
asos obs across the higher terrain and the tip of the mitt.

Occluded low pressure near the kansas/colorado border will slowly
advance through the south-central plains today and into missouri
tonight... While associated warm front remains somewhat stationary
arcing through the midwest and across far southern lower michigan.

Northern stream cold front sags into northern michigan... While
strong canadian high pressure builds through ontario and noses
into the northern lakes region by Saturday morning. Northern
michigan remains between these two systems with increasing
confluent mid level flow/deformation setting up across the region.

Primary forecast concerns... Icing concerns this morning and again
tonight.

Initial batch of warm advection forcing/precip will push east of
the region early this morning. But... Increasing confluent
flow/and a relatively narrow low-mid level deformation axis will
set up across wisconsin and eastward across northern lower
michigan... Then remain in place through much of the day. One can
already see this setting up upstream per regional radar plots
along with a nice push of moisture from the upstream low
spreading northeastward into the midwest. Shaping up to for a
narrow axis of rainfall/high pops/higher QPF pointing right
across the cwa... With guidance right now suggesting areas north of
m-72 to the straits seeing the best chances/highest qpf.

Fortunately, surface temps will be warming safely above freezing
everywhere by mid/late morning... Ending the icing threat. Will
let the current advisory for freezing rain run it's course through
15z... Although day shift may be able to trim it earlier.

Tonight: high pressure anticipated to develop across ontario,
suppressing tighter thermal gradient/deformation axis/precip
southward with time, while colder air begins to spread into
northern michigan. Will probably begin to see wintry mix
precip/light icing issues once again along the northern edge of
precip axis as it pushes south... Which may ultimately warrant
another winter weather advisory for parts of northern lower
michigan tonight. But... Will let day crew assess those
possibilities.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 327 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

To ice or not to ice part deux...

high impact weather potential... Icing potential will impact portions
of NE lower and E upper Saturday night and Sunday night. The best
night for the icing with significant amounts looks to be Saturday
night.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... The sfc low at 12z/sat is in central
missouri with the 500 mb low stacked up over it. This produces an
easterly flow from the james bay high, undercutting the warm air
aloft with cool, dry air. This keep the rain south of the straits
for the day, but as the low crosses the mississippi river into
illinois 06z/sun, the moisture and the warm front moves north
bringing the precipitation north to E upper. Soundings for E upper
show that the likelihood of fzra is pretty high. Models suggest that
around 0.1" is possible. Of course, as has been said the last few
days, there is a cycle to this, with Sunday starting with fzra,
changing to -ra as the temperatures warm. Sunday night, the
temperatures in E upper again fall below freezing with the continued
dry easterly flow. Although it looks like the temperatures in n
lower remain above freezing through the night.

Primary forecast concerns... The model profiles again have the region
on the razors edge of freezing temperatures at the sfc, but are have
a decent warm nose in the mid levels. This will lead to freezing
precipitation or non-freezing precipitation. Think that with the
cool, dry easterly flow in E upper and in NE lower that it is more
likely to be below freezing for several hours, while the west side
of the state remains above freezing.

Long term (Monday through Thursday)
issued at 327 am edt Fri mar 24 2017
high impact weather potential... None
extended (Monday through Thursday)... With the original low from
Sunday having filled in, a secondary low forms over southern
missouri and begins to move up the ohio valley. This puts the
forecast area on the back side of the low, and we again get cooling,
but looking at the model profiles, it is of the whole column, so
will expect snow over the region (probably minor accumulations at
this point) as the low moves into new england on Tuesday. High
pressure then builds into the region and stays over the upper great
lakes through the day on Thursday. Thursday night, we may be getting
into a similar situation like what we have now, with a low moving
out of the c plains and cool, dry flow out of ontario. There is some
uncertainty with the how this evolves, but it is something to watch.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1103 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
conditions expected to continue to deteriorate heading through
today as the low level environment gradually saturates.

Widespread light to moderate rain will continue to develop. May
see a brief period of freezing rain, especially at kapn, when
precipitation initially arrives. This should be short- lived as
surface temperatures slowly creep back above freezing. Low cigs,
rain, and mist expected through today and this evening as a warm
front stalls out overhead, only to return slowly south as a cold
front during the afternoon and evening.

Brief period of wind shear expected at kmbl tonight in an
otherwise fairly light wind regime through this TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria for portions of northern
lakes huron thru much of tonight... And then diminish below
criteria by Friday. Chances of precip will increase tonight for
all nearshore areas... With some mixed precip possible across the
far north. Wx will remain rather unsettled thru the weekend... With
good chances of precip possibly mixed during the night.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 11 am edt this morning for miz008-
015.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
lhz348-349.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Tba
short term... Jsl
long term... Jsl
aviation... Msb
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi61 min SE 5.1 G 18 33°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 53 mi81 min SSE 5.1 G 12 41°F 1015.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi61 min S 14 G 21 40°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi68 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast37°F34°F89%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S43S9S7SE10
G17
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G15
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G15
6SE64SE653SE4SE75CalmNE3
1 day agoN13
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N9N10E7NE84N7NE6N7NE8NE8N6NE7NE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4NW9NW12NW13
G21
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G26
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G24
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.