Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday May 20, 2018 12:54 PM CDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1026 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the late morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201805202230;;254133 FZUS53 KAPX 201426 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1026 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-202230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201358
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
958 am edt Sun may 20 2018

Update
Issued at 950 am edt Sun may 20 2018
dry northeast flow slowly winning out, helping scatter out the
lower clouds from north to south. Expect this trend to continue,
taking longest in our southern zones where passing high and mid
level clouds are limiting the solar insolation. These high clouds
will persist through the day, although deeper moisture and any
rain threat looks to stay south of our area. Temperatures will
respond accordingly to the increasing sun, with highs this
afternoon making a run into the middle 60s. Of course, those close
to the great lakes will remain a few degrees cooler.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 244 am edt Sun may 20 2018
impactful weather: low afternoon humidities with frost potential
tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
the upper level flow is somewhat confluent out there early this
morning. Wnw flow in NRN michigan, associated with a passing
shortwave in ontario within the NRN stream of the upper jet, and
more west wsw mid level flow ahead of a shortwave working through
the heartland. The wave was also allowing for some higher level
clouds to cross NRN michigan, over the top of deeper low level
moisture stratus behind a departed cold front from yesterday. This
deeper low level moisture was dropping south with time as low level
winds were veering more N NE and drawing in drier and increasingly
more downsloping flow from ontario. This drier air was moving in on
the front flank of high pressure centered over the dakotas where
light winds and clear skies prompted earlier issuance of frost
advisories there. Temperatures in CAA have been slowly dropping into
the 40s and even some upper 30s in eastern upper.

A pretty quiet period of weather through tonight. The air mass
continues to dry through tonight, as the aforementioned high
pressure gradually builds in over NRN michigan. The low level clouds
will start clearing out in eastern upper over the next few hours,
and then down through NRN lower this morning. The higher cloud will
also thin diminish as well, with the better dpva from the shortwave
in the central CONUS pushing east of us. There's likely going to be
at least some periodic high cloud across NRN lower into tonight, but
as winds go light calm under high pressure that sits directly
overhead, will have little if any impact on temperature falls. That
said, the potential low temperatures tonight are to sneak into the
lower to middle 30s depending on just how much we mix out into the
increasingly drier air for today. At least the NRN half of the cwa
will have no issue seeing dew points crash into the middle 20s to
lower half of the 30s. Along and south of m-72 there is a touch of
discrepancy in how much the bl mixes out today, which may very well
lead to whether or not temperatures can effectively fall to where
frost can develop, or if there will be some good chance of fog and
slightly less chilly temps. Will go ahead an issue a frost advisory
for areas north of m-72 for now, with the idea that locales south of
there may also need the headline.

Highs today in the low to mid 60s most areas with lake breezes
keeping shorelines cooler.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 244 am edt Sun may 20 2018

High pressure taking control...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: high pressure will be over the great
lakes through most of the week. It will be in the form of a couple
of different pressure centers, but they will keep the region under
the influence of high pressure into the end of the week. There is a
weak area of low pressure moving through the ohio valley early in
the week that continues to waiver into and out of the southern
portion of the cwa.

Primary forecast concerns: the first question is with precip chances
Monday afternoon and evening. Consensus blends have low chance pops
from around m-55 south. Most guidance is keeping things dry, and i
tend to agree that most of the precip will remain to our south.

There is a good deal of moisture from the gulf through the ohio
valley, so it isn't completely out of the question that some precip
could work it's way far enough north. The past 6 runs or so of the
gfs have been slowly drifting north with qpf, but most guidance
stays south with it. Pops will be left for now, but I wouldn't be
surprised to see the rain stay south. Blend dewpoints still look on
the high side Monday and will need to be adjusted down.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 244 am edt Sun may 20 2018

Warming through the week...

with high pressure overhead, things will remain warm and dry heading
into the weekend. Winds will remain light, but with temperatures
steadily warming to the 80s dewpoints will need to be monitored. The
next chance of rain will come over the weekend. There are still some
differences in the details of when exactly the system will arrive,
but there is good agreement for widespread rain sometime over the
weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 652 am edt Sun may 20 2018

Clearing skies, possible fog tonight?...

shallow cool air with spotty MVFR CIGS will gradually erode as much
drier air advects into the region through today. This is out ahead
of high pressure that settles in tonight. Winds will become light
and trend more onshore with lake breezes this afternoon, before
going light calm tonight. Fog is a possibility at mbl tvc tonight,
but confidence in that is fairly low attm. Will not include in the
forecast.

Marine
Issued at 512 am edt Sun may 20 2018
winds will continue to diminish into daybreak, and especially
through today and tonight, as high pressure settles in overhead.

Have now cancelled the small craft advisory, as all observations
are under criteria. General high pressure and a weak pressure
gradient hold over the great lakes well into the upcoming work
week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Monday for miz008-015>019-
021>024-027>030.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Smd
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi75 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 1025.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi75 min N 11 G 15 43°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi60 minN 710.00 miFair53°F42°F68%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W3NW7NW5CalmCalmNW3N4N8N7N7N4N6N5N4N4N3N7N3N4N8N5NW6N8
1 day agoE5
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SE10SE10
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E4E3E4E3SE5SE6CalmCalmE6SE3E5SE7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmW4
2 days agoN11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.