Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 7:49 PM CDT (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:47AMMoonset 8:20PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 339 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Through early evening..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201708230345;;787957 FZUS53 KAPX 221939 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 339 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-230345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 222303
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
703 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Near term (tonight through Wednesday)
issued at 312 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

An early fall type airmass...

high impact weather potential: beach hazards likely for parts of
the area through Wednesday. Waterspouts possible later tonight
into early Wednesday - mainly lake huron.

Pattern overview: high amplitude and anomalously strong upper
trough (for august) deepening across the great lakes through
midweek. Several pieces of embedded shortwave energy pinwheeling
around the main upper low over quebec. Tight pressure gradient
between departing area of low pressure to our east and large
canadian high pressure building into the upper midwest.

Details: a few sprinkles possible over northwest lower through
late afternoon as a weak wave slides across the area. Otherwise,
we should see decreasing cloudiness once we lose the diurnal cu
field. Deep layer cyclonic flow and an uptick in mid level
moisture later tonight, combined with increasing delta t's into
the mid teens, likely evokes a lake response in the form of
cloudiness and possibly some sprinkles light shower (is this
august?). This scenario maintains itself into the day on
Wednesday, with cool and somewhat moist cyclonic flow producing
northwest lake clouds and possibly a few sprinkles showers. Breezy
day expected once again with gusts 20-30 mph. A very chilly
august day, with highs generally in the 60s (record low max
temperature in gaylord is 60 degrees - which we likely won't
break). These high temperatures are a solid 10 to 12 degrees
below normal.

Short term (Wednesday night through Friday)
issued at 312 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Cool...

high impact weather potential... None.

High pressure initially over manitoba, will build gradually se-ward,
and will be dead overhead on Friday. This will keep our wx cool and
mostly quiet. However, a prominent spoke of energy rotating around
the stacked low in quebec will rotate into the region Wed night thu.

Cloud cover will be highest during these periods, and there is some
potential for some associated showers, with the lakes assisting.

Delta TS will top out in the mid teens Wed night Thu morning, as a
850mb thermal trof accompanies the shortwave and somewhat deeper
moisture. A north 1000-850mb fetch is not ideal for much of the
forecast area (including all of eastern upper mi). But would expect
at least a few showers in the gd trav bay region, and skirting the
ne lower mi coastline south of rogers city. Will continue and or add
to small pops in those regions late Wed night into Thu morning.

Once that passes, considerable and deep subsidence drying will be
seen with the approaching high. Cloud cover will diminish from N to
s Thu afternoon, and Friday looks very sunny and pleasant (after a
cool start).

Min temps will be mainly in the 40s, closer to 50 along the coasts.

Would not be surprised to see a few upper 30s in interior cool spots
thu night. MAX temps mid upper 60s thu, with a few degrees of 60f
fri.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 312 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
high impact weather potential... Cool overnight lows heading into
the weekend. Even some patchy frost a possibility.

Very quiet weather for the extended period with dry air and high
pressure over the great lakes region through Monday. Said high
pressure will provide northern michigan with a light wind regime,
cooler than normal temperatures (in the low to mid 70s), and rain
free weather through at least the weekend. Models then hint at a
weak area of low pressure developing over the western great lakes
region with some associated moisture that may trigger hit and miss
showers over the southern forecast area late Monday into Tuesday.

Lows will be chilly once again Saturday morning (possible frost??),
with the remainder of the forecast period in the 40s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 703 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
deep cyclonic flow combined with ample low level moisture and
ongoing CAA will generate lake enhanced clouds across much of
northern lower michigan by Wednesday. Scattered showers will
impact locations across NW lower michigan targeted by W nw
flow... Mainly locations between pln and tvc. In the meantime...

skies will remain mostly clear thru most of tonight. W NW winds
gusting to 15 to 25 kts will diminish to around 10 kts after
sunset... But will strengthen to 15 to 20 kts again on Wednesday.

Marine
Issued at 312 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
a tight gradient behind an exiting cold front will result in gusty
winds across the northern great lakes through the day on Wednesday.

This will result in widespread advisory headlines, with low end
gales expected in whitefish bay and through presque isle light for
this evening. Increasing overlake instability with cold air
advection will result in scattered lake effect rain showers as well.

Waterspouts will also be possible later tonight into early Wednesday
on lake huron. High pressure builds into the great lakes for the
end of the week, resulting in much lighter winds.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through Wednesday afternoon for miz016-
019>021-025-031.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for lhz345-346-349.

Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for lsz322.

Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lsz321.

Near term... Jk
short term... Jz
long term... Tl
aviation... Mr
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45020 24 mi29 min WNW 9.7 G 14 69°F 69°F1 ft51°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi69 min WNW 22 G 25 68°F 1010.5 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 41 mi59 min W 18 G 21 68°F 67°F3 ft1010.4 hPa (+0.8)
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi129 min WNW 12 G 15 71°F 1012.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi69 min WNW 13 G 15 71°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi74 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F54°F56%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7S7SW8SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6CalmW5SW4SW4W6CalmW5W5S4
2 days agoSW5S5S6S4S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8SW8
G14
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G16
SW6S7S7S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.