Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:15PM Saturday December 16, 2017 6:14 PM CST (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:28AMMoonset 4:25PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 311 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of flurries. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201712170415;;991053 FZUS53 KAPX 162011 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 311 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-170415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 162341
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
641 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 237 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Relatively quiet with moderating temps...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong high pressure remains centered
north of lake superior this afternoon... With ridging and drier air
continuing to build southward thru northern michigan. Early morning
light synoptic snow has pushed well SE of our cwa... Replaced by some
light NE flow light lake effect snow showers streaming off of lake
huron into portions of NE and north central lower michigan. Temps
remain rather cold across our cwa... Ranging from the single digits
in eastern upper michigan to the low to mid 20s across our far
southern cwa.

As we head into tonight and Sunday... Persistent easterly flow...

sufficient over-lake instability and shallow low level moisture will
continue to lend to the production of light lake-induced snow
showers... Mainly across the NE half of northern lower michigan. Some
patchy light freezing drizzle may periodically mix with the light
snow showers... But this will certainly not be the rule.

Expect another cold night across the northwoods... With overnight
lows dropping into the single digits to teens. Our "warming" trend
will begin on Sunday as winds begin to shift to the SE and waa
commences. High temps Sunday afternoon will warm mainly into the mid
20s to around 30 degrees.

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 237 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
high impact weather potential: patchy light mixed precipitation
potential Sunday night-Monday night. Lake effect snow developing
Tuesday with blowing snow possible.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: weak forcing and marginal
thermal profiles resulting in questionable p-type issues Sunday
night through Monday night.

A weak shortwave will dampen out as it pushes across the northern
lakes Sunday night. Moisture profiles on forecast soundings
increase, although most of the moisture generally remains warmer
than -10c. This raises some concerns for freezing drizzle (or maybe
snizzle?). Forcing is weak and think anything that falls will be
quite light. Will include patchy freezing drizzle light snow mix in
the forecast for some areas. Low temperatures in the 20s.

Minimal forcing and diminishing moisture on Monday likely results in
a fairly quiet weather day with little if any precipitation. Milder
temperatures as 850mb thermal ridge slides across the area. This
will push temperatures into the middle and upper 30s in some areas.

Upstream upper trough and surface cold front push toward western
parts of the area Monday night with moisture profiles once again
showing increasing moisture depth. Still plenty of questions about
p-types with light snow, freezing rain or rain possible across the
area. Best chances of precipitation may be across parts of eastern
upper michigan (where moisture will be deeper).

Colder air sweeps in behind the front on Tuesday transitioning
lingering precipitation back to snow. After initial
subsidence drying following fropa, the lake effect machine should
begin to ramp up during the mid-late afternoon as h8 temperatures
fall toward -10c with 70%+ moisture in the h8-h7 layer. It will be
windy on Tuesday with mean boundary layer winds around 30kts. The
combination of wind and some developing lake effect snow could
impact travel with reduced visibilities - stay tuned.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 237 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
much more progressive flow regime expected, at least to start the
extended period. Core of coldest temperature anomalies will retreat
north, waiting toward renewed pattern amplification toward the end
of the week to be forced back south. However, well agreed upon
detachment of strong southwest mid level low may force greater
downstream heights and locking the core of the coldest temperature
just to our northwest with time, but plenty of time to work those
details out in the coming days. Area gets clipped by a brief bout of
renewed cold air advection through mid-week as trough axis races
across southern canada. This will, of course, reinvigorate the lake
processes. However, trends support very marginal parameters as core
of synoptic support and coldest temperatures pass well to our north.

Suppose some accumulations are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning in the traditional northwest flow belts, but unless
parameters change, definitely does not look like anything too
significant.

Attention then turns to the potential for much more widespread
accumulating snow event later Wednesday night into Friday morning
(exact timing subject to change of course). Dprog dt's of all mid-
range guidance progs support a weaker and further south track to low
pressure, which makes complete sense as most substantial "piece" of
mid level support gets left behind in the southwest conus.

Uncertainty is high, but with current trends, support is definitely
there for a long duration light to moderate snow event with several
inches of snow possible. Given pattern, would not be at all
surprised to see a weaker and further south adjustment with time.

Will continue to highlight this potential in our latest hazardous
weather products. Colder weather returns with perhaps some light
lake effect snows to start next weekend.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 634 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
a corridor of deeper moisture and MVFR CIGS is positioned just
south of mbl, associated with a frontal boundary in southern
lower michigan. mbl will be flirting with these CIGS for the next
several hours, but winds do go more southerly late tonight through
Sunday, drawing MVFR CIGS into all airports. Could be a little
light snow flurries crossing the airports late Sunday afternoon
and evening, associated with a disturbance aloft and sfc
troughing. Certainly no accumulation expected at this point.

Marine
Issued at 237 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Sunday night as
high pressure and subsidence remain the rule. Conditions will
approach SCA criteria on Monday as the low level pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching front. Wx will remain rather quiet
for the remainder of the weekend and Monday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Jk
long term... mb
aviation... Smd
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi34 min E 9.9 G 16 18°F 1022.4 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi94 min ESE 6 G 11 26°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi34 min E 7 G 13 25°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi20 minE 710.00 miOvercast25°F16°F71%1020 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
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W8W8W7NW8NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E7E6E5CalmE5
1 day agoW8W5W3W5W5W11
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2 days agoNE7NE7NE7NE4N5N6N7N5
G16
N8NW7N9NW4N7N3NW4NW6NW6W9SW8W6W6W6W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.