Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chazy, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:23PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:30 AM EST (08:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 5:57PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 121 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Overnight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots or less. Occasional rain.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chazy, NY
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location: 44.83, -73.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 180526
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1226 am est Sat nov 18 2017

A brief area of high pressure over the region today will continue to
provide dry weather to the north country through most of Saturday
before the next low pressure system brings another round of mainly
rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain showers transition to
mountain snow showers Sunday afternoon, with dry conditions
expected late Sunday night into Monday as high pressure returns.

Near term through tonight
As of 1027 pm est Friday... Quiet forecast remains on track for
the overnight period. An upper ridge situated over the eastern
great lakes will be the controlling weather feature over the
next 12-18 hrs. Some mid and high clouds will work ewd into the
region during the pre-dawn hours. In the meantime, mostly clear
skies and light winds through midnight are resulting in good
radiational cooling conditions, with temperatures generally in
the teens to mid 20s across the north country at 03z. As winds
begin to shift light into the s-sw and clouds increase, should
see readings level off with temperatures rising a bit,
especially across the higher summits in advance of our next low
pressure system.

Next system begins to approach the region Saturday, but trends
amongst the latest guidance continues to be towards a later
arrival time of precipitation so feel most of the daylight hours
of Saturday will actually be dry. Synoptic setup will be a
developing area of low pressure over the ohio valley Saturday
morning, tracking northeast into the eastern great lakes
Saturday night to the vicinity of ottawa by 12z Sunday morning.

Increasing southerly flow ahead of the attending warm front will
usher in seasonably warm temperatures Saturday afternoon in the
40s area-wide to near 50 for some locations. Precipitation
arrives around the 6-8pm timeframe across western new york, and
shifts east into vermont through the overnight hours. By this
time, warm air advection will be strong enough that temperatures
while cooling slightly through the night, will still support
rain as the dominant ptype. Area of some concern will be across
the far northeast kingdom where some cold air damming looks
likely keep temps at or below freezing for a period late
Saturday night into early Sunday where some light ice
accumulations are possible.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 409 pm est Friday... To be honest, I was hoping the 12z
guidance suite would be much closer together with their various
solutions than they are. In a general sense, they all still
support the idea that a deep (around 980mb) low pressure system
will move northeastward out of the great lakes that will push a
strong cold front through the region during the day and also be
accompanied by strong gusty winds. However the exact track and
timing differ enough (+ - 150 miles and 6 hours) that it results
in a good deal of uncertainty with regard to specific details
in the sensible weather (when rain changes to snow, how strong
wind gusts get etc). The GFS & canadian show the surface low
moving right up the st lawrence valley. The 12z NAM has moved
westward compared to prior runs and now shows this track as
well. This is a climatologically favored low track. However, the
12z ECMWF shifted a bit east, and is now bringing the low
across the adirondacks on it's way to maine. This is not a
typical storm track. Perhaps it's the start of a model trend
pointing toward a solution that has a low taking a more easterly
track. That said, most of the ensemble model runs still have
the westerly st lawrence track.

Long story short, for this forecast cycle, we are maintaining a
forecast scenario where the low center moves up the st lawrence
valley early Sunday morning, with a strong cold front moving
through by mid-day.

With that, here is what is expected at this point:
Sunday morning should be plain rain across the region as
temperatures aloft and at the surface will be above freezing.

However a cold front will sweep across northern ny by late
morning and then into eastern vt by early afternoon. 850mb
temperatures will drop from about +4c to -5c in a few hours.

This will turn the rain showers to snow showers first at higher
elevations, and eventually lower down. It's a strong front, so
we may have a narrow band of heavier showers with the front, but
at this point the hi-res models aren't showing this feature.

This means high temperatures will be first thing in the day.

Exactly how warm it gets depends on the track of the low.

Further west means a better chance of warmer air getting farther
north. Right now have some low-mid 40s highs in the morning,
dropping back into the 30s for the afternoon. Could be some
places reaching 50f. Or if the low stays further east, then 40f
will be about it.

As the precipitation changes over to snow, the deepest moisture
is moving out, so not anticipating any significant
accumulations. Perhaps 1" or so at elevations primarily above
1000ft, and only some flakes that melt when they hit the ground
in the valleys.

It's the winds that will become the most noticeable aspect
of this storm. After the front passes, strong cold air advection
will result in deep boundary layer mixing. At the same time a
tight pressure gradient will produce winds of 40-50 knots a few
thousand feet above the surface. A rapid pressure rise on the
order of 10mb 3 hours also suggests ageostrophic enhancement to
the winds. Net result, there is the potential of wind gusts on
the order of 35-45 mph for much of Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some downslope enhancement on the eastern sides of the 'dacks
and greens as the westerly winds flow across, so perhaps
localized higher gusts in those areas. Later forecasts will fine
tune the need for any wind related headlines (probably advisory

Sunday night, the snow showers will come to an end, but the wind
will continue to blow. Expecting 20-30 mph gusts nearly
everywhere as cold air advection keeps the boundary layer mixed.

Lows will bottom out in the teens to 20s, so wind chills will be
primarily in the single digits.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 409 pm est Friday... Stuck pretty close to the guidance
blend for the period. In general, the 12z guidance was pretty
similar with the large scale features. So overall a reasonably
quiet weather week as large scale trough settles in over eastern
canada. Several weak systems will zip through in the fast flow.

Temperatures will fluctuate some day to day, but overall
average at to just below normal. A few notes on each of the
Monday: still a gusty brisk day thanks to a reasonably tight
gradient still existing between the departed low pressure and a
ridge of high pressure that will start to build in. Thinking
we'll still see winds of 25-35 mph across much of the region
during the day. By evening, winds slack off and start to
transition to a southerly flow. This may cause some weakening
lake effect snow showers streaming off lake ontario to shift
position and move into the st lawrence valley. Not expecting any
significant accumulation, and have only 20-30% pops for that.

Tuesday: looking pretty nice. Southwest flow will bring in
warmer temperatures. Weak ridging should result in fairly clear
skies. Highs well into the 40s for most of the region.

Wednesday: a weak cold front will move through. Perhaps a few
rain transitioning to snow showers (especially across the
northern ny & vt mountains), but it looks pretty weak. Not
thinking it will have any impact on those traveling for the

Turkey day: chilly but mostly dry. Typical late november
weather. Couldn't rule out a flurry here or there as westerly
flow will advect some moisture off the great lakes causing
fairly cloudy skies. Given trajectory of the overall flow,
any organized lake effect snow bands will remain south of
the forecast area.

Friday: models indicate a weak shortwave moving across the
region. Could be a few light snow showers. Don't see anything in
the models at this point indicating anything major precipitation
wise, so continued good traveling for those enjoying the
holiday. Temperatures again only in the 30s for highs, cooler at
higher elevations.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 06z Sunday...VFR through 00z Sunday with thickening
mid high cloud cover as light winds trend south southeasterly at
5 to 10 kts (northeasterly at kmss). After 00z Sunday
widespread rain affects all terminals with ceilings lowering to
MVFR in the 015-025 agl range in general. Some occnlVFR may
continue at kbtv kpbg krut.


Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Likely ra, chance shra, chance shsn.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. No sig wx.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance

Tuesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Banacos
short term... Nash
long term... Nash
aviation... Jmg

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY13 mi38 minW 410.00 miFair22°F14°F71%1016.5 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT17 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair19°F15°F89%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW15
1 day agoS14
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE10SE9SE10SE12S12S8S6SE8S10S9S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.