Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:47PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:19 PM CST (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 949 Am Cst Mon Jan 21 2019
This afternoon..N wind around 5 kts veering s. Scattered flurries, then scattered snow showers.
Tonight..S wind increasing to 10 to 20 kts. A chance of light snow.
Tuesday..S wind 10 to 20 kts veering sw 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Snow likely.
Tuesday night..SW wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw and increasing to 10 to 15 kts overnight. Periods of snow. The bay of green bay is primarily ice covered at this time.
LMZ521 Expires:201901212315;;703231 FZUS53 KGRB 211549 CCA NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast...CORRECTED National Weather Service Green Bay WI 949 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-212315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 211815
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1215 pm cst Mon jan 21 2019
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 428 am cst Mon jan 21 2019
not as cold with periods of snow tonight into Wednesday, then
bitter cold for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.

The very energetic split flow across north america will
consolidate into a high amplitude pattern during the week as a
ridge builds off the west coast and a large, deep trough
strengthens from hudson bay into the great lakes region. Some
moderation in temperatures will occur the next few days as the
southern stream shifts north and drives a cyclone through the
area. Beyond that, strong, persistent northwest upper flow will
provide a continuous feed of cold air into the area from high
latitudes--resulting in significantly below normal temperatures.

The primary precipitation event will be tied to the passage of the
cyclone through the area the next few days. There will be some
opportunities for precipitation beyond that, but cold air and
limited moisture will likely support only modest amounts at best.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Tuesday
issued at 428 am cst Mon jan 21 2019
no headlines for the incoming system were posted this morning due
to lingering uncertainty in the timing of the heaviest snows.

There were lots of details to work out in the short-term portion
of the forecast, including very cold readings early today, the lake-
effect potential off lake michigan today into this evening, and
snows with the incoming cyclone tonight and Tuesday.

Temperatures were very cold across the north this morning, but
the air was basically calm. Although winds will start to pick up
as temperatures begin to rise after sunrise, the period with wind
chills meeting advisory criteria will be too small for an
advisory. Will continue to handle with an sps.

Meanwhile, a strong double-land breeze over lake michigan was
leading to some organization of the mid-lake snowband. The band is
drifting back toward the western shore, and will likely affect
lakeshore areas today. Since it appears the band will probably
shift up the lakeshore rather than continuously feed inland over
the same location, went with scattered snow showers and up to an
inch of accumulation. But the band will require close monitoring
for changes in structure or behavior.

A band of snow is likely to shift across the area tonight. The
snow will be generated by low-level isentropic lift and some qg
forcing with a mid-level shortwave ejecting out well ahead of the
southern stream cyclone. The band is likely to be widest and take
the longest to cross the far north, with a shorter duration of
snow across central and east-central wisconsin. Snows will likely
taper to occasional light snow and flurries across the north
Tuesday morning in the wake of the lead band, while a significant
break in the precipitation is likely farther south, especially in
east-central wisconsin. Anticipate 1-3 inches of snow in the far
north tonight, tapering down to little if any accumulation in the
far south.

Snows with the primary cyclone will overspread the area Tuesday,
but models still have substantial differences in how quickly that
occurs. The ECMWF suggests the heaviest snows in east-central
wisconsin may hold off until late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

The morning forecast has a widespread 4-6 inch snowfall across the
entire area between tonight and mid-day Wednesday. The bulk of the
snow will tend to occur earlier in the north and later in the
south, but considerable uncertainty still exists on the exact
timing. Opted to defer headline decisions to later shifts since
current snow forecast is a little low to support a watch warning.

Later shifts can still go with a warning if totals need to be
increased, or provide a shorter duration advisory targeted to
when the bulk of the snow falls the worst conditions occur.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 428 am cst Mon jan 21 2019
not much change among the models with regards to the amplified
mean flow consisting of upper ridges over the eastern pacific
west coast and western atlantic, with a deep upper trough centered
over east-central noam. Once the synoptic snows end Tuesday night
or early Wednesday morning, the only other weather systems to
impact northeast wi to be a strong cold front clipper system
Thursday and another clipper next Sunday. Temperatures to be close
to normal through Wednesday, but take a noticeable drop thereafter
as arctic air pours into the region thereafter.

There continues to be model uncertainty with the timing of the
surface low as it tracks northeast from the central plains Tuesday
night. The GFS and gem are faster by taking the low pressure
across southeast wi Tuesday evening and reaching northern lower mi
or lake huron by 12z Wednesday. Meanwhile, the slower ECMWF only
has the surface low reaching near chicagoland by 12z Wednesday.

The eventual correct solution will make all the difference on
whether the accumulating snow ends Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. Actual snow amounts among the models are relative close
with another 2-4" possible over the southeast half of the forecast
area, focused on east-central wi. Final totals across all of
northeast wi to be in the 4-6" range. Due the uncertainty in
timing, have decided to hold off on any headlines and let the next
shift have one more model run to look at. Otherwise, the snows
over northern and parts of central wi are expected to diminish
overnight, with the exception of vilas county where north-
northwest winds may bring lake effect snow showers into that part
of the state. Min temperatures Tuesday night to range from 5 to 10
above zero north-central wi, to around 20 degrees near lake mi.

System snow would gradually taper off Wednesday morning with
little additional accumulation. The lake effect snow showers over
vilas county will also end Wednesday morning as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the western great lakes and winds back to the
west making trajectories unfavorable. Look for a decrease in
clouds through the day with MAX temperatures around 20 degrees
north-central, middle 20s east-central wi.

Clouds are expected to be on the increase Wednesday night as a
clipper system moves across southern ontario and drags a cold
front into wi after midnight. Majority of the models indicate any
light snow showers to be located behind the cold front, therefore
only a small chance pop needed across north-central wi late night.

Min temperatures to range from zero to 5 above north-central, to
around 10 above near lake mi. The cold front pushes through the
rest of wi Thursday morning with enough moisture available and
mid-level forcing from a trailing shortwave trough to bring a
chance of snow showers across most of the forecast area. Behind
the cold front, arctic air will overspread the region and set the
stage from a very cold upcoming weekend. MAX temperatures for
Thursday to be 10 to 15 above north-central, around 20 degrees
eastern wi.

This latest arctic blast on northwest winds will open the door for
lake effect snow showers across north-central wi Thursday night.

It is a bit early yet, but would anticipate minor accumulations
across vilas county. Otherwise, the main story for Thursday night
will be the very cold temperatures with enough wind to bring
dangerous wind chills to the area. Min temperatures to range from
around zero near lake mi, to 10 to 15 below zero central wi. Add
in northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph and wind chills plummet to 20
below zero lakeside, 30 to 35 below zero central wi. These values
would constitute the need for a wind chill headline for late
Thursday night into Friday morning. The forecast for Friday has
become more uncertain due to model timing differences with another
potential clipper. The gem and ECMWF are faster by taking the weak
surface low southeast from the northern plains in the midwest,
while the slower GFS only has the low pressure reaching the
northern plains by 00z Saturday. The faster solution would bring
another chance for snow showers to northeast wi Friday afternoon,
while the slower solution keeps high pressure over the region. For
now, have leaned toward the gem ecmwf, but confidence is low. Max
temperatures on Friday will not reach zero north-central wi and
only around 5 above zero near lake mi.

Assuming the faster overall movement is correct, an area of high
pressure would move across the region on Saturday, followed by yet
another clipper late on Sunday with more snow chances. Frigid
temperatures will persist through Saturday night with a touch
warmer temperatures on Sunday ahead of the clipper. Wind chill
headlines may be needed again for Saturday night Sunday morning.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1215 pm cst Mon jan 21 2019
vfr conditions should prevail across the area today, with the
exception of some lake-effect clouds and snow showers across far
eastern wisconsin early this afternoon. Expect llws and MVFR
ceilings tonight as light snow moves into the area. The snow will
reduce visibility into the MVFR and or ifr category at times.

Things looks less certain for Tuesday at this time.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi32 min E 1.9 G 4.1 11°F 35°F1033.4 hPa-13°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 23 mi40 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 21°F 1032.8 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi32 min Calm G 4.1 17°F 1032.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi40 min Calm G 1.9 15°F 1033.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi24 minSW 410.00 miFair20°F6°F55%0 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi24 minESE 610.00 miFair15°F3°F59%1036.2 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN15
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N12N13N14N12N11N9N7N7N6NW5NW6N5N6NW3NW5N4CalmN3CalmE4
1 day agoNE14
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2 days agoNW9N8N8N8NE12NE12NE8N12NE14NE13N12N10N13N17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.