Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:23PM Friday May 24, 2019 6:30 PM CDT (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 402 Pm Cdt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering S after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
Sunday..N wind 5 to 10 kts veering E in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
LMZ521 Expires:201905250430;;400819 FZUS53 KGRB 242102 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 402 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-250430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 241944
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
244 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Saturday
issued at 242 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
several rounds of showers, and isolated thunderstorms, are
expected late this afternoon and overnight from isentropic lift
north of a warm front surging north through the western great
lakes region. Model soundings show the instability to be elevated,
around 1000 j kg, which could produce some large hail. However
given the steep inversion damaging winds are not anticipated but
wake low winds are not out of the question given the recent
propensity of these types of events.

A cold front will then end the showers later tonight as it moves
into wisconsin. However the front will stall from central to
northeast wisconsin before tracking through the rest of the area
Saturday afternoon. Although the previous forecast was dry
Saturday afternoon, there are some hints that there could be
isolated activity along the cold front as it tracks through the
region. Model soundings show a decent amount of bulk shear, on the
order of 50 to 60 knots with the shear being speed and not much
directional shear, as well as MUCAPE values around 1000 j kg.

This could produce some wind damage if strong storms can develop
Saturday afternoon. Given the front itself is not very dynamic the
chance for this activity will be rather low, therefore will go
with slight chance pops with the thought that most areas will
likely remain dry. Mostly sunny skies ahead of the cold front
should allow many areas to reach or exceed 80 degrees for the
first time of the year across east-central and northeast wisconsin
during the afternoon hours.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
issued at 242 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
focus for the long term will be chances for showers and storms,
chances for severe weather, and if heavy rain potential which
could aggravate flooding concerns.

Saturday night... A few showers or storms will be possible
along ahead of the cold front during the evening hours across
eastern wi. If storms are around, MUCAPE of 500-1000 j kg and
bulk shear of up to 50 kts would support a strong storm or two.

But as the evening progresses, instability will wane and the front
will exit the area, ending the shower storm threat. The rest of
the night is looking dry with weak subsidence and slightly drier
air spreading into the region. Skies look to be mostly clear to
partly cloudy. Most spots will drop into the 40s to around 50, but
would not be surprised to see a few upper 30s in the typical cold
spots across north central wi if skies clear out.

Sunday and Sunday night... A dry day is expected as weak high
pressure slides across the region. A few daytime cumulus clouds
will be possible, along with some mid-high level clouds. It will
be cooler for locations that were ahead of the front on Saturday,
but near or possibly even a couple degrees warmer for locations
across the northwoods, even as cold air advection will drop 850mb
temps by 5c to 8c and winds will have a more easterly component.

Flow off the chilly bay and lake will bring a significant drop in
temps near lake michigan. The dry weather will continue into
Sunday night as the high pressure system drifts east of the
region, but return flow will begin across the plains and western
great lakes which will spread thicker clouds into the area.

Memorial day... Low pressure will eject into the plains as a warm
front pushes north into southern wi. A large area of showers and
embedded storms is expected to spread across the area through the
day as frontogenetic ascent, approaching shortwave, and a wide
open gulf provide ample lift and moisture. The rain will be
locally heavy with pwats between 1.0" and 1.5". Minor urban,
rural, and river flooding will be possible. Prospects for severe
weather remain low as widespread clouds and the warm sector stays
just to our south. Some elevated instability will allow for the
chance for storms. Winds of 40-50 kts are forecast to be between
4000-5000 ft, so if any mixing can occur, gusty winds will be
possible.

Rest of the forecast... Models show the warm front making it
northern wi on Tuesday, but confidence on just how far it can
advance is still in question. The front will be close enough to
keep chance pops in the forecast both Tuesday and Wednesday, with
likely pops at times as one or two periods of rain storms look
likely, but just when and where the highest chances end up is
still up in the air. Right now, models focusing on the Tuesday
night period as the best chance, as another trough swings across
the region. Additional heavy rain is possible. Temps will also be
tricky to pin down as clouds, rain, and if when we will get into
the warm sector remain in question. The end of next week looks a
little quieter, but weak systems in the northwest west flow will
bring a smaller chances for additional shower and storm activity.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1219 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
MVFR ifr CIGS are expected this afternoon with several rounds of
showers and isolated thunderstorms and gusty southeasterly winds
as a warm front lifts over southern wisconsin. Conditions will
then deteriorate to solid ifr this evening and overnight with
additional activity. Skies will then clear Saturday withVFR
conditions and gusty west winds as a cold front sweeps in from the
west.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Bersch
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi31 min ESE 5.1 G 7 51°F 54°F1015.6 hPa (-2.3)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi31 min ENE 1 G 2.9 46°F 1015.2 hPa (-2.0)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi51 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi35 minSE 710.00 miOvercast51°F48°F89%1016.4 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi35 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast53°F48°F83%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9NW6NW5NW6N8CalmN5E6E4E3CalmCalmE3E8E4SE6SE8E12E9E8E7E9SE7
1 day agoSE11SE10SE8E4E4SE6S8S7W7W5W5SW8SW11W15
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2 days agoNE86E7E9E5--E10E11
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.