Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sturgeon Bay, WI
April 17, 2024 6:19 PM CDT (23:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 1:22 PM Moonset 3:50 AM |
LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 527 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 17 2024
Tonight - W wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to around 25 kts. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday - SW wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thursday night - W wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday - W wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 171949 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Stronger showers and storms could produce wind gusts over 40 mph. Locally heavy rain is possible in any of the stronger thunderstorms.
- Break in rain by late this evening, but more showers return late tonight into Thursday, mainly south of highway 29.
- Friday looking windy with westerly winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph, especially central and southern areas.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
Radar and water vapor imagery are showing a low pressure system slowly tracking northeast across northeast WI this afternoon keeping scattered rain showers across the region. These light to moderate showers will continue through the rest of this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows an area of weak surface CAPE (100- 400 J/kg) and increasing surface to 1.5 km lapse rates of 7- 7.5 C/km across the Fox Valley that may support a few weak surface based thunderstorms later this afternoon, but severe weather is not anticipated.
As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks northeast out of the region this evening expect rain shower activity to come to an end shortly after sunset. Gusty northwest winds will be possible this evening on the backside of the low with a few gusts to 25- 35 mph possible, strongest across central WI. A weak ridge moving across the area overnight should keep conditions dry. Dry air aloft may lead to some brief clearing early Thursday morning, but skies are expected to quickly fill back in ahead of a compact mid- level low developing across the Northern Plains. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s region wide.
Another round of rain is expected to arrive Thursday morning as the previously mentioned mid-level low and a 100-110kt upper level jet track into the western Great Lakes. Don't expect much in the way of thunderstorms Thursday with almost no instability and meager mid-level lapse rates. High temperatures Thursday are expected to reach the low to mid 50s in most location.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Precipitation...A few showers may clip east-central WI on Thursday evening. These will be occurring along southern edge of upper level jet and to the north of weak low pressure wave crossing the western Ohio Valley. Majority of deeper moisture shifts east overnight as a leading cold front moves through, taking any lingering showers out of the area. Upstream is a large deep upper trough that will be settling east- southeast by Friday morning. Main sfc low tied to the trough will be well to the north of Lake Superior, if not to James Bay, so in general ascent for precip over our area Friday will be limited. May be just enough low-level moisture and cold air advection for a few rain and snow showers over far northern WI, though westerly flow will not be favorable for much precip. Winds veering to northwest Friday night with continued cold air advection in the deeper trough may result in increasing snow showers, especially for Vilas County. A touch of late season snow accumulation could result, though the somewhat higher probabilities from the NBM of 0.5 inch or more of snow along the WI/Upper MI border seen overnight have come down some compared to previous runs. NW flow persists on Saturday and Saturday morning is when the lowest H85 temps of -8c to -10c are seen into northern WI. Net result will be continued chance of some light snow showers Saturday morning along with good deal of lingering clouds, even away from northern WI.
Otherwise, the weekend will be mainly dry as high pressure slides across. The next chance for precip looks to arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Temps look warm enough for just rain this time around. Still have to nail down details though.
Winds...Westerly winds will increase on Friday due to strong winds (35 to 45 kts) in the low to mid levels to the south of the main low pressure system. Soundings show steep low-level lapse rates, deep mixing will tap into these stronger winds. Good landing point now is west wind gusts 30-40 mph over especially central and southern areas. If cloud cover is not as robust on Friday for these southern areas, could even see a few locations reaching near advisory level gusts of 45-50 mph. Weakening low-level lapse rates will allow the winds/gusts to diminish on Friday night.
Temperatures...Following a lead cold front that moves through on Thursday night, below normal temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. The largest departures for high temps will be from central to north-central WI with readings 7-10 degrees below normal. Departures will not be as significant from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore.
Temps will then rise to normal or slightly above normal for Sunday into early next week, with highs mainly in the 50s, though some readings in the 60s will make an appearance on Monday.
AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Rain showers and LIFR/IFR/MVFR cigs will continue across the region this afternoon as a low pressure system works it way across northeast WI. Didn't not include any thunderstorms at any of the TAF sites this afternoon, but weak surface instability could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. Winds have already stared to pivot around to the southwest across central this morning as low center moves across the region. Winds will continue to veer to the west and finely northwest by tonight. Stronger wind gusts will also be possible late this afternoon and evening on the back side of the low with a few gusts reaching 25-30 knots. Rain showers are forecast to come to an end at all TAF sites this evening with dry conditions expected overnight, however, MVFR cigs may linger into early Thursday morning before rising to VFR.
Another chance for rain is expected to arrive mid-Thursday morning, but no thunder is expected at this time.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Stronger showers and storms could produce wind gusts over 40 mph. Locally heavy rain is possible in any of the stronger thunderstorms.
- Break in rain by late this evening, but more showers return late tonight into Thursday, mainly south of highway 29.
- Friday looking windy with westerly winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph, especially central and southern areas.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
Radar and water vapor imagery are showing a low pressure system slowly tracking northeast across northeast WI this afternoon keeping scattered rain showers across the region. These light to moderate showers will continue through the rest of this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows an area of weak surface CAPE (100- 400 J/kg) and increasing surface to 1.5 km lapse rates of 7- 7.5 C/km across the Fox Valley that may support a few weak surface based thunderstorms later this afternoon, but severe weather is not anticipated.
As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks northeast out of the region this evening expect rain shower activity to come to an end shortly after sunset. Gusty northwest winds will be possible this evening on the backside of the low with a few gusts to 25- 35 mph possible, strongest across central WI. A weak ridge moving across the area overnight should keep conditions dry. Dry air aloft may lead to some brief clearing early Thursday morning, but skies are expected to quickly fill back in ahead of a compact mid- level low developing across the Northern Plains. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s region wide.
Another round of rain is expected to arrive Thursday morning as the previously mentioned mid-level low and a 100-110kt upper level jet track into the western Great Lakes. Don't expect much in the way of thunderstorms Thursday with almost no instability and meager mid-level lapse rates. High temperatures Thursday are expected to reach the low to mid 50s in most location.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Precipitation...A few showers may clip east-central WI on Thursday evening. These will be occurring along southern edge of upper level jet and to the north of weak low pressure wave crossing the western Ohio Valley. Majority of deeper moisture shifts east overnight as a leading cold front moves through, taking any lingering showers out of the area. Upstream is a large deep upper trough that will be settling east- southeast by Friday morning. Main sfc low tied to the trough will be well to the north of Lake Superior, if not to James Bay, so in general ascent for precip over our area Friday will be limited. May be just enough low-level moisture and cold air advection for a few rain and snow showers over far northern WI, though westerly flow will not be favorable for much precip. Winds veering to northwest Friday night with continued cold air advection in the deeper trough may result in increasing snow showers, especially for Vilas County. A touch of late season snow accumulation could result, though the somewhat higher probabilities from the NBM of 0.5 inch or more of snow along the WI/Upper MI border seen overnight have come down some compared to previous runs. NW flow persists on Saturday and Saturday morning is when the lowest H85 temps of -8c to -10c are seen into northern WI. Net result will be continued chance of some light snow showers Saturday morning along with good deal of lingering clouds, even away from northern WI.
Otherwise, the weekend will be mainly dry as high pressure slides across. The next chance for precip looks to arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Temps look warm enough for just rain this time around. Still have to nail down details though.
Winds...Westerly winds will increase on Friday due to strong winds (35 to 45 kts) in the low to mid levels to the south of the main low pressure system. Soundings show steep low-level lapse rates, deep mixing will tap into these stronger winds. Good landing point now is west wind gusts 30-40 mph over especially central and southern areas. If cloud cover is not as robust on Friday for these southern areas, could even see a few locations reaching near advisory level gusts of 45-50 mph. Weakening low-level lapse rates will allow the winds/gusts to diminish on Friday night.
Temperatures...Following a lead cold front that moves through on Thursday night, below normal temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. The largest departures for high temps will be from central to north-central WI with readings 7-10 degrees below normal. Departures will not be as significant from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore.
Temps will then rise to normal or slightly above normal for Sunday into early next week, with highs mainly in the 50s, though some readings in the 60s will make an appearance on Monday.
AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Rain showers and LIFR/IFR/MVFR cigs will continue across the region this afternoon as a low pressure system works it way across northeast WI. Didn't not include any thunderstorms at any of the TAF sites this afternoon, but weak surface instability could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. Winds have already stared to pivot around to the southwest across central this morning as low center moves across the region. Winds will continue to veer to the west and finely northwest by tonight. Stronger wind gusts will also be possible late this afternoon and evening on the back side of the low with a few gusts reaching 25-30 knots. Rain showers are forecast to come to an end at all TAF sites this evening with dry conditions expected overnight, however, MVFR cigs may linger into early Thursday morning before rising to VFR.
Another chance for rain is expected to arrive mid-Thursday morning, but no thunder is expected at this time.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 19 mi | 50 min | WSW 8.9G | 52°F | 51°F | 29.54 | 51°F | |
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 23 mi | 40 min | S 5.1G | 49°F | ||||
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 28 mi | 50 min | W 18G | 55°F | 29.58 | |||
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 37 mi | 80 min | SSE 1G | 45°F | 29.58 | |||
GBWW3 | 39 mi | 50 min | WSW 12G | 52°F | 29.60 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSUE DOOR COUNTY CHERRYLAND,WI | 2 sm | 17 min | W 14G19 | 1 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 52°F | 50°F | 94% | 29.62 |
KMNM MENOMINEE RGNL,MI | 22 sm | 22 min | var 04 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 52°F | 52°F | 100% | 29.61 |
Green Bay, WI,
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