Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:29 PM CST (23:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 300 Pm Cst Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts. Winds veering W 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
Friday..NW wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of snow showers in the morning. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
Saturday..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
LMZ521 Expires:201811160515;;357507 FZUS53 KGRB 152100 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 300 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-160515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 152125
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
325 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 324 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018
a clipper low pressure system and associated cold front will move
through the region tonight into early Friday. This system appears
to be moisture-starved, and rh timesections only show a brief
period (2-4 hours) of saturation at any given location during the
event. Will carry low-end likely pops, as it appears most places
will see a few hours of light snow, but accumulations should be a
half inch or less. The exception will be over vilas county, where
lake-effect snow showers will persist into Friday and boost
totals to around an inch in the northern part of the county.

Will continue the trend of the previous forecast, and mention
only snow for precipitation type. Moisture may shallow out enough
after the steadier snow ends to remove ice crystals from the
saturated layer, but subsidence should preclude development of
freezing drizzle.

Northwest winds will gust to 20 to 30 mph in the wake of the cold
front on Friday.

Lows tonight should drop into the middle to upper 20s, except
lower 30s near the lakeshore. Highs on Friday should range from
the lower 30s northwest to upper 30s in eastern wi.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 324 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018
the main highlights from this forecast period are the potential
for some light snow showers at the start of the period and the
transition to a northwest upper-level flow.

For the start of this forecast period, a surface low pressure
system will track southeast across iowa, which will impact
southern wisconsin with snow showers. All of the forecast area
should see some snow, with the higher accumulations of 1 to 2
inches focused across vilas county and central and east-central
wisconsin. Snow showers will exit the region to the east by
Saturday afternoon.

A surface high pressure system will then push into the upper
mississippi valley as the low tracks further southeast for the
remainder of Saturday. Aside from the small chances of lake
effect snow across vilas county throughout the weekend, dry
conditions will prevail for the region until Monday afternoon.

This is partially due to the transition to a northwest upper-
level flow beginning Sunday afternoon.

Entering into Monday afternoon, model guidance is not in agreement
with the track of a weak clipper system that may influence the
area. The GFS has the low pressure system tracking across iowa and
is also slightly more aggressive with moisture. The ECMWF has the
low positioned further west over the iowa nebraska border with
very little moisture. Due to the uncertainty, kept slight chance
and chance pops in for Monday afternoon and evening for portions
of central and east-central wisconsin.

For the rest of the forecast period, the northwest upper-level
flow will remain dominate over the upper mississippi valley,
leaving dry conditions to prevail across the area.

Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the forecast
period with an slight increase to near normal temperatures for
Wednesday and thanksgiving.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1142 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
MVFR ceilings will linger along the lakeshore for another couple
hours, otherwiseVFR conditions are anticpated until late evening.

A clipper low pressure system and associated cold front will bring
light snow to the region starting late this evening (north central
and central wi) and ending early Friday morning (along the lake
michigan shoreline). The snow will probably only last 3-4 hours at
any given location. MVFR local ifr flight conditions will accompany
the steadier snow. Northwest winds will increase and become gusty
after the cold front passes through Friday morning.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kieckbusch
long term... ... Hykin
aviation... ... .Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi41 min SSE 15 G 18 37°F 40°F1010.4 hPa20°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 23 mi109 min SE 5.1 G 9.9 37°F 1011.2 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi41 min S 15 G 21 37°F 1010.7 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi49 min SSE 4.1 G 7 36°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi33 minSSE 910.00 miFair34°F28°F82%1013.6 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi33 minS 910.00 miFair35°F28°F78%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S4S7S6S7S6S7S6SW5SW4S5S5SW3S5S6S8S9
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1 day agoW6W8W9
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NW8W6W9W6W9W7W5NW8NW6N6CalmCalmSW6S4SE9S7S8
2 days agoNW7NW10NW8NW10NW11NW11NW8NW9NW10NW11NW13NW14
G19
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NW12NW11
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NW10NW8NW10NW10W9W11
G15
W8W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.