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FXUS63 KMPX 241727 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Low RHs expected today, though with light winds

- First system coming Friday continues to slow down, with heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Small severe threat exists for overnight convection in southern MN.

- A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another strong system expected Sunday. This system has been trending stronger/wetter for the MPX area.

- Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with a very active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A surface ridge axis extending southwest from to the north of Lake Superior into the St. Croix Valley has supplied us with a cool and dry airmass. We've been watching the freezing line creep southwest out of northern WI and the Arrowhead through the night and it still looks likely that this will be the last widespread chance for a frost/freeze in the MPX area for the Spring season. The median date for the last freeze of the Spring for most of the MPX area falls in the last week of April, so having this as the last freeze would fit nicely into our climatology. For the rest of the today, pleasant weather is expected, but most welcomed of all is that today will bring us a much needed respite from the winds that have been blowing for pretty much the entire month. We will see some RHs dipping down into the 20-25% range for western MN and western WI, but with the light winds expected, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. The dry weather will continue into Thursday, but the pressure gradient will tighten back up again on Thursday, bringing the gusty winds (out of the southeast this time) back.

Friday through Monday continues to look wet. There are two distinct shortwaves we will be dealing with on Friday night and again on Sunday. In between, we will at least get a mostly dry day on Saturday.

For the Friday wave, we've seen two trends with this system. A slower arrival and a little less rainfall for our area (when looking at trends in mean 24 hour QPF from the EPS). There are two forces at play for the slower arrival. One is the dry antecedent airmass we'll have in place associated with a sprawling high centered over the Great Lakes. To go along with dry air, widespread convection is expected to develop along the strengthening LLJ to our south Thursday night that will impede the northward progress of the system as well. As of this morning, the surface low and associated warm front is not expected to move into southern MN until Friday night. Given the timing, we look to be in the decaying phase of any severe weather that develops down toward Omaha during the day on Friday. The overall decreasing trend in QPF can be attributed to the fact that this system will be weakening as it moves across MN.

Our next system will eject out onto the west TX Plains on Saturday and track north into the upper MS Valley come Sunday. This looks to be the stronger of the 2 waves and this shows up in mean 24 hour QPF trends from the EPS, which has been increasing across the entire area for this system. This low looks to have a more favorable timing for bringing a severe risk up into southern MN, although the greatest severe risk still looks to be off to our southeast, depending on the track/timing of the low, we could see a more substantial severe risk sneak up into southeast MN. If you combine the QPF from both systems, we're look at widespread 1-2" of rain across our entire area, with some heavier pockets pushing 4" possible.

Behind this system, we'll cool down slightly and dry out to end April, but as we head into the first week of May, the large scale weather pattern looks rather intriguing. EPS mean plots show persistent troughing developing over the western CONUS, with a strong southern stream jet rounding the base of through across northern Mexico and turning north out across the Plains. This large scale pattern would favor a rather active severe weather pattern for the central CONUS to kick off May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a rare day of light winds for this month. Southeasterly winds will increase by tomorrow morning with gusts of 20-25kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 20-25G35 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA likely early and overnight. VFR aftn. Chc IFR/TS overnight. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming NW.
SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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