Monday, March19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:26PM Monday March 19, 2018 10:57 PM CDT (03:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.96, -93.16     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmpx 200307
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1007 pm cdt Mon mar 19 2018

Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Issued at 1005 pm cdt Mon mar 19 2018

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 255 pm cdt Mon mar 19 2018
a weak short wave was evident in the afternoon water vapor imagery
across the dakotas, and nebraska. This short wave, and associated
area of lift, especially in the dendritic growth zone, will be
centered in west central southwest minnesota late this afternoon,
and through the overnight period. The surface reflection is weak
and only a weak convergence zone in far western minnesota
overnight is expected with this system. Thus, this is where the
best lift, moisture and convergence zone will highlight the area
of the best snowfall potential overnight. One to three inches in
likely in west central southwest minnesota, but amounts will
lessen significantly to the east as a persistent dry easterly flow
will limit the moisture depth. Slowly by morning, moisture will
deepen in eastern minnesota which will allow for light snow to
develop. However, forcing is weak and most of the energy with the
system drops south into iowa and slowly fades away. Therefore,
snowfall amounts will be less than an inch across eastern
minnesota, with only trace amounts at best in far west central
wisconsin. Temperatures will reflect the cloud cover and snow, and
overnight lows will be slow to fall. Daytime highs will be
cooler, especially along the iowa border where cloud cover is more

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 300 pm cdt Mon mar 19 2018
the main concern in the extended period is the potential of
accumulating snowfall, especially Saturday.

Most of the snowfall Tuesday afternoon will have ended, with a few
flurries possible Tuesday evening. The mean upper flow in our
region becomes more northwest as a deepening trough forms across
the eastern CONUS this week. Weak subtle waves will ride
southeast along this northwest flow, and may allow for some light
rain snow in far southwest minnesota on Thursday, but the bulk of
the impacted weather will stay far south of minnesota.

Slowly the mean upper flow will become more amplified as an upper
ridge builds across the rockies, and into the northern plains,
upper midwest by late in the week. The surface flow will slowly
become southeast, and increase in speed by Friday Saturday as a
storm system begins to develop in the rockies. This storm has the
potential of producing a considerable amount of precipitation over
the weekend, especially considering the long fetch of moisture
and the deep trough developing across the western conus.

Currently, there is a lot of model spread and uncertainties exist.

The latest model trends have the surface low further south across
missouri than a few runs ago. Plus, thermal profilers are cooler
and this makes for a messy forecast. This system needs to be
watched closely as weather impacts are becoming likely. The main
impacts are the amount of precipitation (qpf), and snowfall. The
ground in minnesota and western wisconsin remains frozen and any
precipitation in the form of liquid water will run off quickly.

Thus, the potential of localized flooding exists. Secondly, the
snowfall could be significant is the atmosphere remains cool
enough during the strongest part of the system moving across the
area over the weekend. Stay tuned for further updates.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1005 pm cdt Mon mar 19 2018
snow should be at kaxn and krwf shortly.VFR conditions will give
way to MVFR and eventually ifr as an area of light snow moves in
from the west. This snow will gradually weaken as it approaches
eastern mn and western wi. E NE winds will be light throughout,
which means clouds should persist and lower overnight. Continue to
think ceilings may go below 1000ft, and could stay there most of
the day Tuesday.


continued to back off a little on the snowfall, but kept lower
ceilings longer into Tuesday. Snow should be tapering off as it
reaches msp, and could switch over to rain Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile low level moisture remains so should see lower ceilings
through most of Tuesday and possibly into Tuesday night.

Outlook for kmsp
wed... MVFR early, thenVFR evening. Wind E 5 kts becoming nw.

Thu...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

Fri...VFR early becoming mfvr with -ra -sn. Wind E 15g25 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jlt
long term... Jlt
aviation... Jrb

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi64 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast35°F21°F59%1018.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi64 minENE 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast36°F23°F59%1017.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi62 minNE 710.00 miOvercast36°F22°F57%1016.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi64 minNE 910.00 miOvercast33°F19°F58%1018 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi62 minNE 710.00 miOvercast34°F21°F60%1017.3 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi82 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast34°F23°F65%1017.3 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi64 minNE 910.00 miOvercast36°F21°F57%1017.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi82 minNE 710.00 miOvercast36°F26°F70%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN6NE4N3CalmN5N8N8N8NE7N6NE8NE9NE9NE9NE9E11E11E12E12E13E9N9NE11NE10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm3W6SW3W4CalmN3N44CalmN3Calm
2 days agoE9E8E7E4NE6NE4CalmN3NE4N3N5NE3E4CalmSE5CalmNW43CalmSW3SW7SW4SW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.