Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:41PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:28 AM CST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:07AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 180516
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1116 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 154 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017
early this afternoon, surface low was positioned across eastern
nebraska with an inverted trough extending into minnesota. East of
the trough axis which also corresponds to the 850mb trough,
southerly flow continues providing a continuous supply of saturated
air with dewpoints in the mid 30s. As expected for today,
temperatures warmed above freezing and no icing issues have been
reported. The moisture currently in place will not move much until
the arrival of the cold front coming down from north dakota.

As of early this afternoon, the front just went through alexandria
which noted a complete 180 degree wind direction change from 150
degrees (southeast) to 330 (northwest). The front will slowly move
through the region tonight, taking until tomorrow morning before
finally moving through the i-90 corridor. Expect drizzle and low
clouds to continue across the eastern third of minnesota and all of
western wi. When the front eventually moves through, the low
stratus will depart but for Saturday we'll see a mix of Sun and mid
and high clouds moving through.

Temperatures will be held in check with persistent northwest flow
tomorrow. Expect highs of 25 to 35 degrees across the region with
15-20 mph northwest winds, gusting in the 20-30 mph range.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 154 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017
the long term still consists of a roller coaster ride of
temperatures and little in the way of precipitation.

By tomorrow night, the next feature to watch will be the trough
off the coast of british columbia because it will quickly lead to
surface cyclogenesis and a strong low pressure system emerging
from the canadian rockies by early Monday morning. We'll begin to
see the start of the warm air advection wing arrive as south-
southwesterly increase by Sunday afternoon. This will mostly
affect far western mn as temepratures Sunday should be about 10
degrees warmer than Saturday.

As the 988mb surface low moves due east across far southern canada
through Monday, continued warm air advection will persist through
the day. High temps across the area look to reach the upper 40s to
lower 50s. The cold front associated with the strong low in canada
will move through overnight into Tuesday morning and it looks to
come through with no precip. It will bring much cooler air in
behind the front, so high temps will be about 20 degrees cooler on
Tuesday as opposed to Monday. Strong northwest winds will accompany
the arrival of the colder air.

At this point in the forecast, the guidance starts to disagree on
overall timing and evolution of the large trough over the great
lakes. The GFS offers a more amplified patter in which the trough
is deeper and remains in place longer, so it has gone colder for
thanksgiving day. However, the ECMWF remains the more consistent
solution run to run. The ECMWF indicates a stronger upper level
ridge and pushes the trough northeast of the area, indicating warm
air moving in for thanksgiving. The blended forecast indicates
highs near 40, but with more reliance on the ecmwf, we think
chances are better that we will see warmer temperatures than that.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1115 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017
only minor changes needed for the tafs, with current timing for cigs
going back to MVFR late tonight early Saturday morning looking good.

For today, expect NW winds to gust into the mid 20 kts for mn
terminals, while tonight, winds will back over to the west and
eventually sw, but will be under 10kts. High confidence in dry
conditions this period, withVFR conditions remaining in place once
reduced CIGS move out this morning.

Kmsp... Hrrr and NAM forecast sounding show low CIGS may hang with us
through 14 15z, so a slight delay in improvements toVFR CIGS may be
needed.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.

Mon...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.

Tue... Chc MVFR. Winds NW 15-20g30-35 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update...

short term... Spd
long term... Spd
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi35 minNW 75.00 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1006.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi35 minNNW 86.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F97%1006.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi35 minNNW 75.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F100%1005.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi35 minNW 45.00 miFog/Mist34°F30°F89%1006.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi34 minNW 54.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F100%1005.8 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi37 minNNW 55.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1005.4 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi35 minNNW 64.00 miFog/Mist36°F33°F89%1006.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi37 minNW 75.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15
G25
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G24
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SE14
G27
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G20
S9S10S8S8SE5SE3SE6E3SE5E4N4N65N56N7N7N6NW8
1 day agoNW8NW7N4NE6N4NE6E6SE8SE8SE11SE10SE10SE12SE11
G20
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G21
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G21
2 days agoNW9NW9NW8W11NW14NW15
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NW16NW16NW16
G23
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NW18
G28
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G24
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G24
NW13NW16
G19
NW15NW12NW12NW13NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.