Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 25, 2017 12:04 PM CDT (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:26AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 251057
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
557 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 355 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
as of 3am this morning, a slug of rain showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms was streaming northeast through southwestern mn and
will continue expanding across most of southern mn. The actual
front was from near rice lake, wi through albert lea, mn as of this
writing.

The front will continue very slowly working east today, and with
this system, the cool side of the boundary has been and will
continue to be a focus of widespread precipitation. Large scale
forcing is best along to the west of the front owing to upper level
vorticity advection with repeat ripples in southwesterly flow and
the strong south to north oriented jet streak from south dakota
through ontario and hence strong differential divergence across
minnesota today and tonight. Weak instability also exists in the
vicinity of the front, so a few embedded thunderstorms will remain
possible.

There are two main shortwaves to take note of for today. The first
one is approaching this morning with the aforementioned slug of
rainfall moving through. There will likely be a period this
afternoon where the precip comes to an end or is very
scattered isolated. The next wave pushes in this evening and
delivers round two of widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms.

Hourly pops reflect these two separate waves with a lull in between.

Expect rain to continue through the overnight hours mainly across
mn. Western wi won't see the widespread slug of rain that parts of
mn will as the second wave takes more of a westerly course.

Highs today will be held in the 50s and 60s across most of mn, but
with the front moving slowly, much of western wi and parts of
extreme southern mn will still be within the warmer airmass through
at least a decent portion of today. Hence highs in the 70s and even
a few 80s near eau claire are plausible but highly dependent on the
frontal placement through this afternoon.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 355 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
Tuesday Tuesday night weather remains clear as todays system will
quickly move off to the northeast, ending any precipitation
across the area by early Tuesday evening.

Models are more consistent for the system moving southward across
the upper midwest Thursday. The earlier outliers are more subtle and
less aggressive with the short wave moving southeast across the
region. Therefore, precipitation chances remain low, but a re-
enforcing shot of colder air remains in the forecast. The
possibility of a frost still looks favorable for portions of west
central wisconsin Saturday morning as the surface high moves
overhead. Elsewhere, return flow develops and conditions do not look
as favorable of a frost in southern central minnesota.

Once Thursday Friday system departs the area, the combination of
return flow at the surface, and an upper ridge building eastward, a
gradual warm up is expected. However, I don't see any 80s returning,
but a few 70s are not out of the question by Sunday and early next
week october 1st week .

Although the aforementioned upper ridge building across the rockies,
and into the northern plains upper midwest next weekend looks
reasonable based on the ensemble means of the naefs gefs, there
remains some concern with leftover energy from the departing long
wave trough that has plagued the western half of the nation since
last week. Some of the models have an upper low forming in the
desert southwest this week and slowly moving this upper low
northeast, underneath the developing upper ridge. The latest run of
the GFS ec has the upper low merging absorbing in the mean long wave
trough reforming across the pacific northwest. This is roughly late
next weekend. There remains a lot of spread in the ensembles with
the developing long wave trough in the pacific and the strength of
embedded short waves moving inland across the pacific northwest.

This will have a large impact on how the upper low merges absorbed
into the overall pattern change. Basically this means that next
weekend could be unsettled as this upper low becomes more apparent
in the mean flow.

Past next weekend, the CFS ensemble over the past few runs does
support another warmer period developing the first and second week
of october. This is based on a significant long wave trough
developing across the eastern pacific, which will lead to ridging
across southern canadian, and portions of the northern united
states.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 553 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
the front has made it through most of the area by early this
morning, with the first of two main rounds of rain moving through.

Widespread ifr and low MVFR will persist in mn, but keau will stay
vfr for a time near the front. Low clouds may lift into MVFR this
afternoon when a lull in the precip is expected. Round two fills
in tonight and ifr is expected once again, possibly lifr
overnight. Isolated embedded thunder will continue, but its so
isolated that did not include in any tafs.

Kmsp... Will continue to ride the edge of the main precip shield
through the morning, meaning temporary vis restrictions are
likely.

Outlook for kmsp
tue... Chc MVFR tsra early. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

Wed...VFR. Winds wnw 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR. Winds W 5 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Spd
long term... Jlt
aviation... Spd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi71 minN 810.00 miLight Rain60°F59°F96%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi71 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast61°F59°F93%1015.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi71 minN 610.00 miOvercast61°F58°F93%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi71 minN 610.00 miLight Rain58°F54°F87%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi74 minN 67.00 miLight Rain59°F59°F100%1015.9 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi73 minN 610.00 miOvercast61°F59°F94%1016.3 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi71 minN 810.00 miLight Rain59°F55°F90%1015.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi72 minN 510.00 miOvercast61°F60°F100%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15
G22
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S8S8W9NW4W6W6W6W7W6W8NW6NW9NW8N6N7NW7NW9N9N7
1 day agoS11S8S8S11S7SE5SE7SE6SE8SE7S8S5S7S11S9S9S6S3SE6SE5S6S9S14S9
G16
2 days agoS8S13
G20
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G21
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G19
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G21
S10
G17
S4S9SE4SE4S7S6S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.