Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 2:52 AM CST (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 170739
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
139 am cst Wed jan 17 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 138 am cst Wed jan 17 2018
arctic high that has had us chilling the last couple of days
is centered over eastern ok early this morning and is on it's way to
the northern gulf. We will spend the entire short term period north
of this high, with the return flow already in place this morning
going nowhere through tonight. As was seen with last nights
sounding, the atmosphere is pretty dry, so we aren't expecting much
cloud cover until late tonight, as the short wave currently moving
into southern alberta GOES ripping across the international border.

All it will do is supply us with some mid upper clouds dropping down
from nd northern mn.

With plentiful sunshine expected, along with a favorable southwest
wind direction, did boost highs closer to the warmer mav met
numbers, with highs in the mid 30s expected out in west central mn.

Only downside to today, is we will see a pretty steady southwest
wind up in the 15-20 mph range all day. Tonight, we will see
continued wsw winds, so no significant temperature drop is
expected and again favored the temperature forecast toward the
warmer end of the model envelope.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 139 am cst Wed jan 17 2018
for the long term, the two periods of interest are highs Friday,
then eventual evolution of what still looks to be a significant
winter storm that will impact the upper ms valley Sunday night into
Monday.

For Thursday through Saturday, we will remain dry with a mild wsw
flow in place as we see significant h5 height falls in the southwest
conus. This whole period, boosted highs a couple degrees over the
guidance, with high confidence is some very mild conditions being in
place. We could easily get higher than what we have, with Friday
having the greatest run away temperature potential as h85 temps
better than +12c come into southern mn ahead of cold front crossing
the dakotas. Not out of the question we see some low 50s out
toward madison, mn depending on the timing of the thermal ridge,
with it looking likely the twin cities eclipses the 40 mark. Only
thing that could slow our temperatures down will be the potential
for mid upper cloud cover. Current forecast plans on a mostly cloudy
scenario given the approaching cold front and WAA cloud cover ahead
of it, but if dominate sunshine is seen, then highs in the low 50s
out in western mn, with mid 40s into the cities certainly look
reachable.

For the weekend, the big story continues to be the evolution of the
trough that will be ejecting out of the southern rockies Saturday
night and be in the upper great lakes by Monday. All guidance
continues to show a deepening cyclone moving across the central
plains and into the great lakes in response to this upper trough
that fits nicely into the panhandle hooker archetype. There is the
typical spread in the models this far out with things like track,
strength, and timing, though for 5 6 days out, this spread really is
not bad. GEFS probabilities for seeing greater than 6" of snow
highlights well where models overnight would say the greatest
potential for seeing significant snow exists, which is across
northern ia up through rochester to eau claire, though it shows the
potential snow swath existing from anywhere from as far northwest as
a dakotas mn border to arrowhead line, or as far southeast as a
des moines to madison, wi line. Further shifts in this track are
likely, but confidence is becoming quite high we will see a
significant winter storm impact the upper ms valley Sunday night
into Monday.

We will cool back down behind this system, but not with arctic air.

The weather pattern in its wake also look to remain active, with
more troughing working out across the plains for the end of the week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1050 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
mostly clear skiesVFR conditions are expected through the period.

Southwest wind will increase to 10-15 kts Wednesday.

Kmsp... No additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
thu...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind w-nw at 5 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Mpg
long term... Mpg
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi59 minSE 410.00 miFair-1°F-4°F87%1034.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi59 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy-1°F-4°F87%1034.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi57 minSSE 310.00 miFair-3°F-7°F81%1032.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi59 minS 510.00 miFair-1°F-7°F75%1033.4 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi57 minSSW 610.00 miFair1°F-2°F85%1030.8 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi77 minS 510.00 miFair-2°F-5°F84%1031.8 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi59 minSW 410.00 miFair-3°F-7°F82%1034 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi57 minN 010.00 mi-6°F-7°F92%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW9NW10NW9NW9NW10NW8NW8NW6NW4W7W7W7W7W6SW4SW5SW5SW5W7SW6SW5SW5SW4
1 day agoNW14NW17
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2 days agoSE4SE7SE5SE5SE6S4S8S9S11S10S11S11S10SE9SE8SE7SE5S4SE3W8NW11NW9NW15N13
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.