Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Champlain, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday June 21, 2018 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1022 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Overnight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Thursday night..North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Clear.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely Sunday night.
Monday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Champlain, NY
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location: 44.97, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 210531
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
131 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move in from the northwest this evening and help
spark scattered showers across the international border. Drier
air behind the cold front will suppress how far south the shower
activity is observed. This drier air will also lead to clearing
skies for the remainder of the work week with sunny skies on
tap Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the weekend as a warm front moves in from the south on
Saturday and a cold front approaches from the northwest on
Sunday. High pressure will build across the north country
beginning Monday which will lead to sunny skies and seasonably
warm temperatures prevailing through the first half of next
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1033 pm edt Wednesday... Forecast in great shape and no
changes needed at this time. A few showers across southeast
quebec and far northern new york are moving southeast just ahead
of a cold front. However... They are struggling a bit to hold
together and threat for showers should come to an end during the
early morning hours. Band of clouds continues to move southeast
with the front and have limited temperatures from falling
sharply. Will do so closer to sunrise when clouds dissipate
and or move out of the area and clear skies develop.

Previous discussion...

mesoanalysis this afternoon shows some skinny CAPE developing
across northern vermont and northern new york as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. An approaching cold
front over southeastern ontario will interact with this limited
instability and help spark a few showers near the international
border. There is also a very slight chance of a thunderstorm or
two but given how weak the cold front will be by the time it
gets here and the limited instability, it wouldn't be surprising
to see no thunderstorms at all. Current forecast shows drier
trends from burlington southward as drier air catches up to the
cold front and any instability present during afternoon heating
quickly wanes as the front will push through during the late
evening overnight hours.

Thursday looks to be a beautiful day across the north country as
skies quickly clear behind the cold front that will push through
overnight tonight. With dry air advecting southward and high
pressure beginning to settle over the region, clear skies are
expected to prevail throughout the day. Some gusty winds along
lake champlain and vicinity could be seen briefly during the
early morning hours as a decent gradient wind sets up as high
pressure is build into the region. High temperatures on Thursday
will be slightly below normals as temperatures only climb into
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday night will be a little on
the chilly side with temperatures in the 40s with portions of
the northern adirondacks dropping into the mid 30s. Nevertheless,
with decreasing dewpoints and slightly below temperatures,
Thursday afternoon is shaping up to be a beautiful first day of
summer.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 344 pm edt Wednesday... Large scale pattern shows surface high
pres and associated ridge shifting off the coast as slow moving
closed 5h 7h circulation and low pres is located over the ohio
valley. Moisture and dynamics will be slowly moving toward our
cwa, but with large dry layer in place across the northeast
conus will make timing of precip challenging. Have continued
with the idea of keeping Friday dry and increasing clouds pops
on Friday night into Saturday. Progged 850mb temps warm between
13 and 14c by 21z Friday with developing southerly winds,
supporting highs mid 70s to lower 80s. If high clouds are slower
to advance, temps could be several degrees warmer. Lows Friday
night mainly in the 50s to near 60f with light rain showers
arriving toward sunrise.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 344 pm edt Wednesday... Models in good agreement showing
decaying mid upper level closed circulation and associated low
pres lifting across the great lakes into eastern canada. This
will help to advect deeper moisture into our CWA this weekend
with pw values increasing btwn 1.50 to 1.75 with limited sfc
based instability. GFS shows CAPE values of 200 to 400 j kg both
on Saturday and Sunday afternoons so have continued to mention
slight chance in forecast for thunderstorms. Best combination
of short wave lift and 850 to 500mb moisture is btwn 18z sat
into Saturday night, with additional energy arriving on Sunday
midday associated with northern stream trof. Given the dynamics
and moisture, expect an unsettled weekend with on and off
showers from time to time. Temps hold mainly in the upper 60s to
mid 70s for highs and lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

For early next week... 1026mb high pres builds into the north country
with mid upper level ridging. This will produce dry weather with
mostly clear skies developing. Temps will start at or slightly below
normal for tues, but warm to above normal values by weds as progged
850mb temps approach 15c. Expecting highs mainly in the 70s
Monday Tuesday with readings into the 80s by weds Thursday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Through 06z Friday... MainlyVFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours with the only exception being the chance for some
lifr fog stratus at kslk from 07-11z. Dry cold front dropping
through the region overnight will continue to provide bkn-ovc
mid level clouds through about 10-12z, where thereafter skies
will trend skc for the remainder of the period. Light and
variable winds overnight trend northerly at 5-10kts after skies
clear this morning, then return to nearly calm after 00z.

Outlook...

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Likely shra, slight chance tsra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
shra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely shra, slight
chance tsra.

Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Clay
near term... Clay evenson
short term... Taber
long term... Taber
aviation... Lahiff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 16 mi27 min N 9.7 G 12 66°F 66°F1 ft57°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT18 mi62 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F56°F74%1008.1 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY22 mi64 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F55°F76%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4CalmS4S3S4S4S6SW6S4SW6SW4S5SW6SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4
1 day agoNW3W3CalmN12NW3N9
G15
NW6N6N4W3W3NW4W5NW4NW6W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm
2 days agoS6CalmS5S7S7S8S7S6
G16
S8
G14
SW4SW5S7S8
G14
S4S4W3CalmSW3N11
G18
N4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.