Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday April 18, 2019 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:201904182015;;111002 Fzus63 Kdtx 181333 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 933 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure of 29.40 inches will cross the straits this morning with a cold front settling southeast through the central great lakes today. A second low pressure system will lift northeast along this front and reach the oho valley on Friday. This low will gradually weaken and drift east into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure attempted to build east into the vicinity. Lhz361-362-182015- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- 933 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. A chance of rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of rain. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then backing to the east in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain and snow early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
LHZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181400
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1000 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Update
Issued at 1000 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
low pressure is now centered over the straits area this morning...

with an associated cold front extending thru the length of lake
michigan into illinois... Missouri and further southward into
texas. Two additional surface low centered have developed along
this front... One centered near stl and another along the
oklahoma arkansas. Our temporary break in rainfall is about to
come to an end... At least for the SE half of our CWA as another
wave and resulting batch of showers heads NE thru southern lower
michigan toward our area. Latest near term models still show rain
chances will remain along and SE of line from pzq to tvc to fks
thru this afternoon. Instability will remain insufficient for any
thunder chances... And additional precip amounts will be generally
light (a quart of an inch or less).

Cooler air will slowly push into our CWA from NW to SE this
afternoon as this wave exits our area. Temps will stay steady
and or cool a few degrees as the afternoon progresses and weak caa
commences.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 337 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Wet at times, especially in NE lower mi...

high impact weather potential... None.

997mb surface low is moving NE out of the grb area, and will
cross eastern upper mi this morning. An associated warm front is
moving in central lower mi, while a cold front pushes across
eastern wi and northern il. That cold front will cross the
forecast area this morning, slowed by a wave of low pressure
moving NE along the boundary. And that wave will support further
precip chances today, especially in NE lower mi.

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving quickly to
the ne, presently impacting mainly NE lower and eastern upper mi.

There are a few trailing showers near cvx and between cad and
tvc, but overall precip coverage is heading sharply downward. That
trend should hold for a good portion of the morning. Once the
ongoing main batch of precip departs, expect just a few sct
showers until about mid-morning. This is thanks to an area of much
drier mid-level air behind the departing mcs, noting much warmer
cloud top temps upstream as far SW as the chicago area.

However, there are colder cloud tops further upstream on that
trajectory. That deeper moisture is associated with a wave along the
cold front, presently in central mo. This wave will race quickly ne,
reaching the thumb area by early afternoon. Isentropic ascent and
fgen forcing on the cool side of the front will throw precip back to
the nw. Showers become likely again by noon near standish tawas, and
high pops reach their MAX extent by 2-3 pm, with likely as far NW as
cad-grayling-atlanta. This is on the stable side of the front, and
do not expect any thunder. Pops will dwindle somewhat after mid-
afternoon, as the surface wave departs, and the front and associated
deep moisture plume kick east.

However, we're not quite done. A slow-moving northern stream upper
trof is slowly progressing eastward into the northern lakes. There
is another area of better moisture just ahead of this trof, which
eventually merges with the front to the east. The upper trof will
result in plenty of cloud cover today and tonight, and chancy sct
showers this afternoon thru most of tonight. These pops will be
favored N and E of i-75.

However, we're still not quite done. Tonight, as energy digs due
south into the mid-ms valley, cyclogenesis will proceed in parts of
the tn and oh valleys. Deeper moisture will again get thrown
northward into the saginaw bay region very late tonight. Per
collab with dtx, will be boosting pops to likely yet again after 4
am tonight for gladwin-harrisville and points se.

Max temps today will be early, and SE portions of the forecast area
will enter the warm sector for part of the morning. Highs during the
daylight hours today will only be in the mid upper 40s in eastern
upper and along the NW lower mi coastline. By contrast, places near
saginaw bay will take a run at the lower 60s before the cold front
and precip slams the door. Min temps tonight will be in the 30s.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 337 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
high impact weather potential... There is a low level threat for
heavy rainfall.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Based on the sref(21z) and 12z ecmwf,
think that the overall, the GFS is backing this storm system into n
lower too far on Saturday Saturday night. So for the
details... Friday morning, the 500 mb low is over arkansas, with the
sfc low near cvg or cmh depending on the model. The lows move about
the same amount, but the difference in the track is about 100-150
miles with the ECMWF a little more east than the gfs. The SREF mean
is even more east near pit by 18z fri. This would favor the ecmwf
track, and the lower QPF through the 24 hours through 12z sat. The
gfs clears out the rain overnight Friday (00z-12z sat) as well, but
with the 500 mb low more north than the ecmwf, the rain moves back
into the upper great lakes by 12z Sat and remains over N lower
through 06z sun. The ECMWF does bring a sliver of precipitation into
ne lower between 00z Sunday and 06z sun, but keeps things dry for
most of the day on Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns... The two solutions are in disagreement
with the rain amounts as the ECMWF sref solution is drier and and
less QPF heavy. The gfs, is looking a little "too heavy". It has a
few looks like some elements are having some convective feedback
issues. So thinking is that while there is as small chance (backed
up by a few members of the ensembles and the gfs) for heavy rain,
will continue with the light minor qpf.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 337 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)... Showers, and around normal
temperatures are expected through the middle of next week, as the
jet stream GOES somewhat zonal from Sunday to Wednesday, with a few
minor shortwaves rippling through it. Temperatures will vary through
the week + or - a few degrees either side of normal, which for highs
this week range from the lower to mid 50s and lows are around
freezing. With the showers, there is a risk of thunder, especially
if we are in the warm sector with the low bearing down on us. At
this point that would look like maybe Tuesday Wednesday. However,
the threats look minimal.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 707 pm edt Wed apr 17 2019
stratus fog expanding into the region near and behind a cold front,
as low moves thru the straits region. Ifr to lifr conditions will be
common this morning, especially near lake mi. Some gradual
improvement after that, but low-end MVFR to high-end ifr conditions
will be common for the bulk of the forecast.

Marine
Issued at 337 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
gusty easterly winds will quickly transition to W and NW by
midday, as low pressure transits eastern upper mi. Ongoing small
craft advisories will wane for a period. However, gusty
northerly winds return tonight and Friday, behind the departing
low and associated cold front. Additional advisories will be
needed on most waters again tonight Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi23 min E 4.1 G 5.1 48°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi33 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 49°F 998.9 hPa47°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI75 mi69 minW 510.00 miOvercast59°F53°F81%998.6 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8E8E6SE8E4E4E4E4SE5CalmS4CalmCalmSW4S3CalmCalmCalmE4SE4SE6SE7SE12E11
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W6W4CalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.