Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:54PM Sunday November 18, 2018 12:27 PM EST (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:07PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 915 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then backing to the east early in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Snow showers likely early in the evening...then a chance of snow showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the evening. A chance of. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots early in the evening... Then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming south 15 to 20 knots until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon...then building to 5 to 7 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LHZ362 Expires:201811182100;;492421 FZUS63 KDTX 181423 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 915 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.20 inches will ridge across the central Great Lakes today and tonight. Pressure will decrease slightly to around 30.00 inches Monday into Monday night as a cold front drops south across the region. Pressure will then build back to around 30.20 inches Tuesday before another area of low pressure dives southeast into the central Great Lakes for the midweek period. LHZ362-363-182100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181516
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1016 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Update
Issued at 1015 am est Sun nov 18 2018
morning composite analysis reveals broad westerly flow and a fairly
tight n-s thermal gradient in place across the great lakes,
associated upper jet streak stretches from the midwest through new
england. Elongated surface high pressure sits across lower michigan
north of a stalled front through the ohio valley to the atlantic
coast. Further north, low pressure is over hudson bay with an arctic
boundary arcing down through ontario north of lake superior. Upper
jet entrance region forcing along aforementioned thermal gradient
north of the stalled front continues to produce a narrow corridor of
snowfall across far southern lower michigan into ohio.

Here at home, still dealing with the final remnants of wsw flow lake
cloudiness and flurries across a good part of the cwa, especially
the tip of the mitt straits region. But dry air subsidence does seem
to be getting the best of the lingering lake effect with thinning
cloud cover and diminishing returns on radar.

Rest of today should be relatively quiet overall with thinning
diminishing cloud cover for most and temperatures clawing their way
to the upper 20s to lower 30s (still a good 10 degrees below
normal). Meanwhile, arctic boundary to the north will be pressing
down across lake superior to just north of the u.P. By evening and
eventually sagging down into and stalling through the straits region
by morning. Clear signal for a thin line of snow to develop along
the front especially out across SE ontario where stronger synoptic
forcing and steeper low level lapse rates will reside. Weaker signal
further west. But combined with lake superior instability, there may
be a thin line of enhanced snowfall pressing into northern chippewa
county by late afternoon into the evening.

Tonight, as mentioned, arctic boundary looking to sag into and
stall through the straits region. There will be another northern
stream short-wave dropping southeastward out of south-central
canada and into the far western great lakes toward morning that
will begin to spread some light snowfall into northern michigan.

Bigger forecast concern is degree of enhancement we see through
northern chippewa county and in the vicinity of the stalled
boundary through the staits tip of the mitt due to enhanced low
level convergence and over lake instability. Will need to consider
whether or not there is enough there to warrant a headline
heading into Monday morning.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 319 am est Sun nov 18 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
large broad scale upper level troughing was seen across all but the
west coast early this morning, with one sheared out shortwave
pressing into the central plains and southern rockies, and another
one associated with a cold front pressing into ontario. At the sfc,
high pressure in the heart of the country extended through the great
lakes and into much of the atlantic coast. Satellite, RUC analysis
and radar all showing the dry air associated with this high
pressure. Radar returns in wsw low level flow was weak to say the
least (dry near sfc air and inversion heights between 3.5-4.0kft),
and skies were clearing outside this flow regime. Temperatures have
plummeted where it has cleared, with many areas in the single digits
to teens.

The sfc high pressure and dry air will sag south today, while the
ontario shortwave works it's way toward quebec. This shove it's cold
front southward and into lake superior. The wsw low level flow will
continue to provide some very light fluffy snows into at least this
morning, but fcst soundings suggest that the dry air may end the
white stuff (i'll believe it when I see it). Low level winds veer
more west heading into this evening, with still not much in the way
of weather. However, the cold front itself will be associated with a
band of snow, which drops into chippewa county by late this evening.

This could be an impressive "snow squall", as it does start to get
enhanced by deepening moisture ahead of an incoming shortwave.

Inversion heights climb to 6-6.5kft, and there is plenty of overlake
instability. At the same time, hi-res data even suggesting that
another area of low level convergence develops from far NRN lower
michigan through far NRN lake huron. The les environment isn't as
impressive as up in chippewa county, but another band of snow is
certainly possible. The shortwave and weak sfc reflection themselves
will bring system snow, driven by dpva and waa, but the total deep
layer -divq does look to be weakening heading through the overnight
hours. Minimal snowfall today, but starting late tonight (and
through Monday), we may need a winter weather advisory for a handful
of counties across far northern NW lower michigan. Can see 1-2
inches there, and around whitefish point in chippewa county.

Highs today will be in the upper 20s in eastern upper, to the lower
half of the 30s in NRN lower. Lows tonight will probably occur in
the evening, as the skies thicken in clouds through the night,
stabilizing the temperature drop. Readings will generally be in
the teens to lower 20s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 319 am est Sun nov 18 2018
high impact weather potential: accumulating snow Monday.

Cyclonic flow within low amplitude troughing persists over the great
lakes region with ridging continuing in the west. A clipper system
drops through the northern plains Sunday night and head towards the
upper great lakes on Monday. This system drags a cold front through
nrn michigan on Monday, with a band of higher moisture and large
scale life near the front supporting synoptic scale snow. Overlake
instability with delta-t's of 19 c will contribute to lake
enhancement through the day. Could see accumulations of 2-4"
across far NW NRN lower michigan, and when combined with Sunday
night's snowfall (see near term discussion), we could be seeing
the need for a winter weather advisory. Low level winds veer
through the day, focusing the snow bands from the straits region
southward through the day. By Monday evening the boundary should
be south of the cwa, ushering cold dry air out of canada on
northerly winds. This will focus the best snowfall near and south
of traverse bay overnight. Tuesday will bring high pressure
sliding through the ohio valley and another clipper system lurking
through the southeastern canadian plains into ontario. Between
these two, winds back to westerly then southwesterly through the
day Tuesday, focusing lake bands back northward with time, ahead
of the next fast moving clipper Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 319 am est Sun nov 18 2018
forecast concerns: minimal.

Wednesday remains in cold cyclonic flow with more snow showers
possible. Heights start to rise early Thursday morning as the
western ridge starts to push eastward. 850 temperatures rise above
freezing for thanksgiving day, as a warm front moves northward over
the area. Friday and Saturday could bring high temperatures in the
low and possibly mid 40s across most of the area. Another system
lifting out of the central plains has the potential to bring some
snow-melting rain on Saturday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 631 am est Sun nov 18 2018
lake effect clouds showers diminishing today.

Strong high pressure in the northern plains is extending ridging
into lower mi. Lake effect clouds and very light lake snows continue
into NW and N central lower mi. The high pressure will gradually
work south through the day, allowing winds to increase and become
slightly gusty out of the W sw, while ushering in somewhat less cold
air. That will erode lake effect from south to north. Pln may be
able to see a brief period of MVFR CIGS vsbys this morning.

Otherwise,VFR conditions for most of the period. It's late this
evening and overnight when system snow and lake effect press into
pln with MVFR CIGS and ifr MVFR vsbys. 1-2" possible. Snowfall rates
generally under an inch per hour. Snow ratios around 17:1.

Marine
Issued at 319 am est Sun nov 18 2018
winds are starting to increase over the great lakes, as an axis of
high pressure is sinking southward, and the pressure gradient t is
tightening ahead of a cold front in canada. Advisory speeds expected
most all areas today into this evening. Winds subside with the
passing of low pressure later Sunday night through Monday, but
advisory level gusts are once again possible Monday night when this
low pressure departs.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lhz345-346.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lmz341.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... Smd
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi40 min WSW 8 G 14 33°F 48°F1021.7 hPa16°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi28 min WSW 15 G 19 33°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi33 minWSW 1310.00 miOvercast32°F22°F68%1022.3 hPa

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Last 24hrNW8W5N7N6NW3NW4N3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW6W12
1 day agoSW8SW7SW8SW8SW8W9SW8W6SW6W6NW5NW7NW10W9
G15
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2 days agoSE6SE5SE6SE3S4S3SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmSW3SW4W6W5SW5SW5SW6SW6SW9SW7SW7SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.