Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:20PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 2:18 AM EST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:201901220915;;726247 Fzus63 Kdtx 220227 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 927 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.70 inches, will settle into eastern ohio tonight. This high will continue eastward to the mid- atlantic coast by Tuesday. Low pressure, 29.60 inches, is forecast to lift into the western great lakes from the southern plains Tuesday night; then across lake huron Wednesday morning before lifting into southern quebec Wed evening. Weak high pressure will advance into the region in its wake. An arctic cold front is then forecast to advance across the region Thursday night. Lhz361-362-220915- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- 927 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots increasing to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales. Heavy freezing spray. A chance of snow. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 10 to 14 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Freezing spray early in the evening. Snow. A chance of rain early in the morning. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west early in the afternoon. Snow and rain likely in the morning... Then a chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of until late afternoon. Heavy freezing spray early in the evening. A chance of until late afternoon. A chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 9 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Heavy freezing spray early in the morning. A chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of snow until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220445
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1145 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Update
Issued at 1013 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
strong arctic high pressure center is just SE of michigan late
this evening. Meanwhile... Low pressure continues to gain strength
to the lee of the rockies in the central plains. NE edge of mid
and upper level moisture clouds from this system is pushing into
the western great lakes region attm... With associated areas of
synoptic snow extending from the dakotas thru northern minnesota
into portions of wisconsin. Closer to home... All is generally
calm... Mainly clear and very cold with temps generally in the
single digits above and below zero. These mid and high clouds will
spread into our CWA overnight as low level winds shift to the
south and weak WAA commences. Small chances of snow will develop
very late tonight into Tuesday morning as the initial waa
wing warm front slides NE thru our cwa. Still appears better
chances of accumulating snow will develop from west to east
Tuesday afternoon as deeper moisture arrives ahead of the surface
system. This will keep temps from tanking again overnight... With
temps actually rise a few degrees as clouds overspread the area
and southerly flow strengthens ahead of the plains low.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 356 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

A bit of a moderating trend...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: center of arctic high pressure,
responsible for the dangerously cold conditions of late, now pushing
off to our southeast, with parent mid-level ridge axis just now
building into the region. After early morning temperatures that
where well below negative 20f in our traditional colder locations,
gradually development of south return flow and plenty of sunshine
has "boosted" readings into the single digits and lower teens early
this afternoon. Of course, those same light winds make it feel just
a bit colder, with wind chill values generally in the single
digits.

Both the surface and upper level flow regime remain quite
progressive tonight, with surface high pressure pushing off to the
east coast while mid level ridge axis builds into and through the
northern great lakes. This results in further maturing of warm air
advection, keeping overnight lows several degrees "warmer" than
previous nights, and even bringing the possibility of a little light
snow toward Tuesday morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: cloud temperature trends and
addressing that late night light snow potential.

Details: south winds will be on the increase tonight as pressure
gradient increases between departing surface high and developing
southern plains low pressure. Increasing warm air advection through
the column will result in slow top-down saturation, bringing slowly
increasing and lowering clouds with it. Saturation looks to become
deep enough to generate a bit of light snow late tonight, although
as previous forecaster mentioned, gotta wonder if guidance is
simply too aggressive with this idea given such a dry overhead
airmass. Any snow that does fall will remain light, with amounts
under an inch.

Combination of those winds and increasing clouds will really prevent
temperatures from falling too much tonight, and may actually see
temperatures start to rise very late tonight. Expect lows generally
in the single digits, although areas in the au sable river valley
will likely dip several degrees below zero quickly this evening
before recovering some later tonight. Wind chills will remain quite
cold, in the single digits to teens below zero. Not headline worthy,
but make sure you take proper precautions if venturing outside
overnight.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 356 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Not as cold with widespread snow...

high impact weather potential... Fairly high.

Primary forecast concerns... Snow accumulations late Tuesday into
early Wednesday.

Low pressure emerges out of the central plains tonight, heads
northeast and tracks across northern lower michigan Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. There will be strong warm
advection isentropic upglide in advance of this system. Models have
come into decent agreement with snow amounts. Forecast accumulations
will generally range between 6 and 8 inches across eastern upper
(enhancement due to a possible frontogenetical band) and 4 to 6
inches across northern lower (highest near the staits and lowest
across southeast counties where a little rain could mix in).

Headlines will likely be advisory level but will defer this decision
to the midnight shift as the bulk of the snow will not fall until
the third period of the forecast (Tuesday night into easy
Wednesday). It then looks like some north northwest flow lake effect
snow showers during the day Wednesday with a break in the action
expected Wednesday night.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 356 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
high impact weather potential: active weather continues with several
chances for accumulating snow through the weekend, along with
another round of potentially very cold temperatures.

An alberta clipper and associated arctic cold front move through
late Thursday into Thursday evening with northwest flow lake effect
to follow. The clipper front should bring a round of snow showers to
the region. The lake effect behind it looks rather robust with
decent moisture and gusty winds. This in combination with the very
cold air (and low wind chills), visibilities will likely be lowered
at times (small dendrites). This pattern is expected to continue
into the weekend with periodic short waves moving through the flow
enhancing activity. The one limitation may end up being the
increasing ice cover on the big lakes. Temperatures will be upwards
of 20 degrees below average. Highs on Friday will struggle to reach
above zero once again.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1145 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
strong arctic high pressure center will continue to slide east
away from michigan overnight... As low pressure continues to
develop to the lee of the rockies in the central plains. This
system will gradually lift NE toward the great lakes region
Tuesday and Tuesday. Widespread snow will develop ahead of the
system and will impact all of michigan beginning on Tuesday and
continuing Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR ifr as this widespread snow develops. Llws
will develop as southerly flow strengthens ahead of this system
tonight into early Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 356 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
after some lighter winds today, widespread southerly
advisory and possible gale producing winds return tonight into
Tuesday, as the pressure gradient tightens between departing high
pressure and developing low pressure in the central plains. The
gradient will loosen up some and winds will decrease later Tuesday
and Tuesday night as the low pressure lifts up into NRN michigan.

Widespread snow is expected as this system passes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Tuesday for lhz346-347.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Tuesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Update... Mr
near term... mb
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi31 min N 1.9 G 19 2°F 1033.3 hPa-6°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair-4°F-10°F74%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW9NW11NW9NW8NW8NW8NW8NW8NW8NW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW7SW6SW8SW4SW4CalmSW3
1 day agoNW12NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.