Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday May 26, 2019 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 11:52AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:201905270815;;504494 Fzus63 Kdtx 261958 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 358 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A broad high pressure system, averaging 30.20 inches, slowly moves across ontario just north of lake superior. High pressure will remain in place through Monday before sliding into quebec Monday night. Low pressure, averaging 29.60 inches, moves across the midwest into the central great lakes Monday night and lingers through Tuesday. Lhz361>363-270815- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 358 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming light and variable late in the afternoon becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots until early evening...then veering to the southeast in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 262011
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Quiet bonfire weather tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: great lakes remains nestled within
westerly flow aloft along the northern periphery of a strong upper
ridge centered along the gulf coast. Per water vapor satellite
imagery, weak short-wave trough is passing through the western
great lakes with little fanfare across northern michigan. All the
weather action remains confined well south through southern lower
michigan and into the ohio valley, along the cold front that
passed through our area last night.

Across northern michigan, weak surface high pressure and dry air
is in control. We had quite a bit of thick high cloud cover from
the weather to our south earlier in the day. That has largely
thinned and slipped off to the south east leaving some afternoon
heating of the day fair weather clouds across interior parts of
the forecast area. There is a narrow w-e band of lower cloud
cover just north of lake superior that will eventually slip into
the region toward Monday morning.

Tonight: heating of the day CU will fade quickly this evening
leaving mainly clear skies for much of the night. Aforementioned
narrow band of lower cloud cover will begin to slip down into the
region late overnight and result in a bit more clouds for some by
morning. But otherwise, a quiet night ahead with winds going calm
this evening and temperatures dropping down into the 40s.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
high impact weather potential... Heavy rain possible (low probability
for now) Monday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... As a system moves from the c rockies,
and into the c plains, the warm front stretches along a well defined
sfc trough into S lower. The GFS and ECMWF have this system
similarly portrayed at 12z mon, but begin to diverge a bit as we go
into the day, and into the evening the GFS begins to push the qpf,
from a mcs, more north than the ECMWF (see the primary forecast
concerns for more). The system continues to move east into the mid-
atlantic states, allowing high pressure to build into the state and
give us a pause in the rain for about 12 hours. Around 00z wed
(Tuesday evening) the warm front remains, and the main low moves
more out into the c plains. This looks to kick off another MCS that
both models seem to have similar solution with through the day on
Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... The main concern over this will be the
convection that is fired off along the warm front over the 2 1 2
days of the period. The first instance, as mentioned above, is the
difference in the where the QPF goes. The GFS and ECMWF have two
slightly different solutions, as the ECMWF has a MCS that follows
the warm front, which stays somewhat stationary in S lower, and
dumps the rain mainly just south of m-55, and possibly up to m-72.

The GFS deepens a small sfc low in the trough, and pushes the warm
front north. This causes isentropic rain elevated thunder with
possibly heavy rain, north around m-32, while more convection fires
south of there in S lower mi. This seems problematic as the high
ahead on the north side of the warm front helps to produce east to
northeast winds at the sfc. Which would impede the warm air from
moving north much like the GFS idea. The
sref namnest namdng hiresw(arw nmm) all support the ecmwf, so have
used a blend for that. The GEFS plumes show about 3 members with
decent CAPE to support the operational gfs. So think that the
thunder will mainly remain south of the forecast area. So the main
issue will be not thunder, but the possibility of heavy rain. While,
it is possible, not really expected, as it seems that it should fall
with the mcss that track along the warm front.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms Wednesday night
extended (Wednesday night through Sunday)... There's a brief pause
with the rain as the second MCS moves through, and then warm front
resets as the low moves closer and another MCS with the low moves
into the region and rain comes back into the region overnight and
Thursday. The models disagree with the evolution of the system that
drops into the middle of the country. The GFS continues to cut off
the 500 mb low which continues the chances for rain through Friday,
while the ECMWF idea is a more open wave that lifts out and high
pressure dries things out for Friday. Saturday, both models have
rain, but from different systems. However, by Sunday both models
have the trough(east coast) ridge(central conus) configuration that
dries us out for the early part of the following week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 144 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
high pressure across the region will provide solidVFR weather for
northern michigan through the TAF period. That said, expect sct-
bkn fair weather CU through the afternoon with bases at or above
4k feet along with sct-bkn high cloud cover.

Clouds thin out tonight leaving mainly clear skies. Cloud cover
will begin to increase again late overnight and particularly
Monday morning (stillVFR) as our next system begins to move into
the region.

Overall light winds under 10 knots this afternoon and nearly calm
tonight. Easterly winds develop Monday and increase to around
sustained 10 knots will a little higher gusts.

Marine
Issued at 411 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
light winds and waves anticipated through tonight. Easterly winds
develop on Monday and remain in place for the next few days. No
marine headlines anticipated at this juncture.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi75 min WNW 7.8 G 7.8 44°F 37°F1 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.0)
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi25 min N 8.9 G 12 70°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi35 min NNW 6 G 11 72°F 51°F1017.3 hPa42°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi70 minENE 1010.00 miFair69°F41°F36%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14
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SW10SW9NE4N7N4NW4W4NW3NW4SW3NW4NW9NW8N9NW7NE12NE10NE11NE10E9
1 day agoE6E6SE4SE5CalmSE3SE5SE6SE3SW8SE10S4S6S7SW7S14
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2 days agoW14
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W10NW7W5W5W5NW4NW7NW4NW6NW4NW5NW7NW6CalmCalmE5E5E4E7E5SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.