Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 9:14PM Monday June 26, 2017 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 10:27PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 957 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning...then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the evening.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots until early evening...then backing to the east in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ362 Expires:201706270800;;876960 FZUS63 KDTX 270158 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure...averaging 29.90 inches...over Lake Huron will slowly drift northeast into southern Ontario tonight. High pressure...averaging 30.10 inches...centered over the Ohio Valley will then expand into the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing quiet weather conditions. LHZ362-363-270800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 270140
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
940 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Update
Issued at 940 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
precip band remains fairly substantial, currently stretching from
drummond isl to cad. It is starting accelerating se-ward as low
pressure moves east from georgian bay. And the back edge is quite
sharp; the sault is already cloud-free below 12k ft. We remain on
target in getting this precip out of here tonight, exiting the
osc tawas area by 3-4 am. But, in the interim, have boosted
pops QPF considerably.

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 239 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
high impact weather potential: isolated thunderstorms again. No
severe storms, but small hail possible.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
large scale upper troughing and cooler conditions continuing across
nrn michigan. Sfc low pressure still in eastern upper with numerous
rain showers buried in the better low level cyclonic flow.

Meanwhile, there have been a few holes in the cloud cover along and
south of m-68 in NRN lower. Not much heating, but we have been able
to pop off some diurnally driven rain showers in a moist air mass
underneath the persistent steeper lapse rates aloft around 6.5c km.

Further upstream, a upper level low was dropping SE and into lake
michigan. Moisture was increasing out ahead, with dpva and diurnal
processes helping to fire off more rain showers. The main shower
activity however, remained on the W NW flank of the upper low,
within the deformation zone and deepest moisture. Instability as
earlier thought, has been rather minimal. Virtually none across
eastern upper, 100-200j kg in most of NRN lower, to up to 500j kg
the most closer to saginaw bay.

The sfc low pressure will slide east of eastern upper through the
later afternoon and evening, and the stronger low level convergence
will start to wane. This will help to break up the steadier nature
of the rainfall. The deformation rains however, will be wrapping at
the same time, and also down across NW lower. This upper low makes
it into SE lower michigan by midnight with the help of another wave
seen diving through ontario, and then both will be east of us
Tuesday. The deformation will be weakening with time as the upper
low gets further away through evening. With this being the main
forcing, am expecting incoming showers to be breaking up with time
as well. This trend has been picked up by higher resolution data,
and have gradually stepped down chances for rain with time (numerous
west scattered east this evening... Becoming isolated to ending
overnight.

This whole transition will slowly put NRN michigan in NW flow aloft
on Tuesday, as ridging tries to work into the upper midwest. There
is some drying that takes place into Tuesday, but overall pwats
remain around 0.75". Am expecting a decent CU field to develop late
morning to afternoon with a tendency for onshore flow to develop,
especially across interior eastern upper and far NE lower. The cu
field is likely to be most dense in these areas. There is not much
in the way of forcing dynamics aloft with some weak vorticity
dropping into the region, but maybe a shower or two can develop
within the lake breeze convergence. No thunder chance seen at this
point.

Lows tonight in the lower 40s north to the upper 40s in far ne
lower. Highs Tuesday in the lower half of the 70s most areas,
possibly middle 70s in downsloping regions of NE lower.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 239 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Heavy rain event possible Wednesday night and Thursday...

high impact weather potential... Heavy rainfall flooding possible
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface low moving across southern
canada will drag frontal system east through Thursday. As the system
runs into strong high over the SE us, front lags the low and becomes
more parallel to mean flow. In addition, strong 60kt+ LLJ develops
over the midwest Wednesday and moves into mi Thursday. Abundant
moisture available with gulf wide open. Set up is similar to last
week's heavy rain event, without the tropical system.

Primary forecast concerns challenges... Potential heavy rain event
setting up Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially warm front
approaches region Wednesday evening. Deep moisture and strong
isentropic ascent as LLJ pushes gulf air over the front. Lift
enhanced by left exit region of 100kt upper jet. Mean rh values
close to 90% with pwats over 1.5" for a 12 hour span. Then sw-ne
oriented cold front crosses region Thursday. LLJ and mean flow
nearly parallel which could lead to slow movement of heavy rain
producing cells. However, CAPE values remain low throughout the
event which could mean heaviest rain falls south of cwa. As always,
the trick as with the last system, will be to narrow down where
heavy rain swath will occur.

With all of the rainfall over the past week, 6hr flash flood
guidance values are down to near 2" over southern and eastern parts
of the cwa. QPF values of over 2" are possible, wpc has placed all
of our CWA in the marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for
day 3. Flood watches and warnings may be needed for late Wednesday
and into Thursday. Tonight's and tomorrow's model runs should give a
better indication of where the heavy rain will set up and where
watches and warnings are needed.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 239 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
good deal of uncertainty with the extended period, especially with
rain chances over the weekend. The combination of surface low
pressure out of the plains and another shortwave pivoting out of
canada and into the great lakes region is bringing a non-zero chance
of rain for the weekend. The question is when and where, with some
guidance keeping the surface low and bulk of the precip to our
south, and others bringing it right overhead. A second round of
showers will likely follow later in the weekend or early next week
as the axis of h5 troughing clears the area. Will certainly need to
keep an eye on the SE portion of the CWA for rainfall totals, given
the wet antecedent condtions and somewhat anomalous pwat values
progged not too far to our south. Temperatures are expected to be
near normal, perhaps just a touch below.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 744 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
band of showers will pivot se-ward, across and out of northern
lower mi this evening. Periods of MVFR conditions are expected.

OtherwiseVFR, as low pressure departs lake huron and high
pressure moves east from southern mn.

Mainly a NW breeze thru the forecast, though backing a bit more
west by late Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 239 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
low end advisory gusts continue across portions of the lake michigan
nearshore waters, especially southern areas. Had earlier issued
advisories for the NRN nearshore waters of lake huron, as the
gradient appears to tighten up enough tonight. High pressure then
slips SE of the region, allowing winds to become more southerly
through Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is an increase in speed
Tuesday night, but with increasing stability, will not issue any
advisories attm. A much more substantial increase in speed is seen
later Wednesday and Wednesday night, out ahead of a respectable area
of low pressure that will bring showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall
may be quite heavy Wednesday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lmz342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lsz321-322.

Update... Jz
near term... Smd
short term... Kjf
long term... Alm
aviation... Jz
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi53 min WNW 14 G 16 55°F 56°F2 ft1011.7 hPa (+0.0)
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi43 min WNW 8.9 G 13 54°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.0)52°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi33 min 53°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi50 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F46°F75%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3SW4SW6W8SW12
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1 day agoW6W3SW5SW3SW6SW3W5W4W6W11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW6SW3W5W6W11W12NW6
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N6CalmN4E3N12S11W9CalmSW4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.