Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisville, MI
March 28, 2024 3:11 PM EDT (19:11 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:09 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 10:46 PM Moonset 7:27 AM |
LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 951 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. A chance of snow showers and showers in the morning - .then a chance of snow showers late in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots until early evening - .then veering to the east in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early in the evening. Showers likely in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ300
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 281738 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 138 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots today/tonight
- Chances for precipitation Saturday, starting as snow and possibly mixed precip in the early morning then mostly rain by midday
- Large uncertainty for weather system early to mid week next week
UPDATE
Issued at 938 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Low-level flow is veering just a touch this morning, as low pressure on Hudson Bay gradually fills. Though Lk Superior activity remains north of Whitefish Pt, flurries/light snow showers off of Lake MI have moved south toward Boyne Falls/ Indian River/Vanderbilt. Have adjusted morning pop grids. Only a coating of new snow expected.
Otherwise a quietish day. Partly sunny outside the main snowbelts, though with winds picking up a bit again with some mixing. Temps will reach the low- mid 40s closer to Saginaw Bay, but mostly mid- upper 30s elsewhere.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Long wave trough axis that has been working its way east across North America this will now lined up along the Mississippi River...as a deepening upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest coast with short wave riding building into the Rockies.
Upper low and associated dynamic PV anomaly (dynamic tropopause down to nearly 600mb) lifting northeast past Lake Superior this morning.
Drier air has overspread most of southern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan but deeper moisture continues to wrap around the upper low from northwest Ontario across the western Lake Superior basin.
998mb surface low over southern Hudson Bay this morning...mesoscale trough axis across western Lower Michigan. Mixed skies across northern Michigan with some light snow/flurries across northern Lower...mostly ahead of a short wave trough axis crossing Lower Michigan. There are breaks in the clouds over northwest Lower and eastern Upper though additional Sc and light radar returns across central/western Upper and northern Wisconsin...which should be helped by boundary layer instability over northern Lake Michigan as sub -10C 850mb temperatures cross the 3-4C lake waters.
Overall pattern is quiet in the near term...general height rises across the Great Lakes with a weak short wave trough sliding across the area tonight. Persistent cyclonic boundary layer flow finally relaxes as a weak high pressure ridge builds into Wisconsin/Lower Michigan.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots today/tonight: Best chance for light snow/flurries today looks to be north of the M-72 corridor and especially focused through the Straits and out toward southeast Chippewa county/Drummond Island with the most persistent trajectory of low level moisture and upstream cloud cover will be enhanced by a trip across Lake Michigan. Farther north of the Straits indications are of an uptick in flurries/snow showers during the afternoon mostly driven by boundary layer processes. Tonight low level flow slowly starts to veer toward a more west- northwest direction...best thermodynamics expected to be around/ downwind of Whitefish Point with inversion heights around 800mb and cloud top temperatures poking up into the DGZ. Some stronger low level forcing won't hurt the cause either... for now have kept accumulations an inch or less around Whitefish Bay. Veering winds will likely bring clouds southward again into much of northern Lower with lake induced snow showers/ flurries probably increasing in coverage as well in favored northwest flow areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Light snow flurries will diminish Friday morning over eastern upper as ridging moves overhead. Temperatures will warm around 5 degrees more than today with winds remaining light and skies clearing up in the afternoon. Friday night into Saturday morning, two weak surface lows will approach MI (one from the NW and one from the SW). As they meet over MI, precipitation chances will spread across the state from W to E Saturday morning and linger through the day. Winds aloft remain zonal, which allows an elevated warm layer (2.5 - 5kft) to linger over northern lower. Model soundings depict chances for mixed precipitation, including non-zero chances for some freezing rain, where surface temperatures are able to remain below freezing Saturday morning (which will likely be near the tip of the mitt). At this time, precipitation accumulations remain light no matter how it falls (rain or snow). Temperatures should warm across the CWA to above freezing by mid day, allowing all precip to fall in the form of rain for Saturday midday and afternoon. Light snow will be possible Saturday night for eastern upper as precipitation moves out of the region.
Primary Forecast Concerns: There are a few areas of uncertainty for precipitation chances Saturday. As for areas of confidence, timing and moisture availability are stronger signals (around 89% of GFS/ECM ensemble members began precip between 12 and 18Z Saturday, and PW values only range around 0.2" with the mean around 0.5"). The uncertainty lies in precip type. Box plots of the aforementioned ensemble members 850mb temps over KGLR depict the median line right over 0C, and tails reaching evenly to +/-4C Saturday at 12Z. This means most guidance hovers right around freezing Saturday morning around Gaylord, leading to the non-zero chance of brief freezing rain. More of the box plot shifts below freezing for KPLN, and is totally below freezing for KANJ. This leads to more confidence in snow over eastern upper. As mentioned before, accumulations should remain light, which should lower potential impacts, however a few spots could become slick Saturday morning. Most precipitation should become rain by the afternoon hours as temperatures are forecasted to reach into the low to mid 40s Saturday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Zonal flow will be seen Sunday through early next week. Afternoon temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend for Monday and Tuesday. Winds near the surface become E/NE by Monday as a surface low over the central plains strengthens. At this time, there is high uncertainty for what weather northern MI will see mid week next week.
The strengthening surface low gets carried northward with a mid level trough/closed low, potentially tracking anywhere from central MI to OH/PA/NY. Not only is the track up for debate, but the timing, intensity, and available moisture are all depicted differently in deterministic and ensemble guidance. This results in wildly large ranges of ensemble values for 24hr QPF and snow.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
A trof of low pressure will swing across the area tonight, veering our winds to the wnw. Conditions will be mostly VFR.
However, lake effect clouds are expected to redevelop and lower tonight into Fri morning, along with some -SHSN. MVFR cigs are likely Fri morning at CIU, and are possible at PLN/TVC.
Gusty wsw winds this afternoon will weaken by evening, then veer wnw.
MARINE
Pressure gradient will continue to relax today as high pressure builds into Lower Michigan. But winds will remain gusty on Lake Michigan and through the Straits into far northern Lake Huron...and waves still 5+ feet within Lake Michigan nearshore zones outside of Grand Traverse Bay. So Small Craft Advisories will continue in Lake Michigan nearshore zones and will probably expand east into the Straits of Mackinac. Straits to False Detour zone as well as Whitefish Bay will probably flirt with small craft winds today.
Winds/waves should settle down by this evening...and not expected the need for additional headlines through Friday night.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 138 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots today/tonight
- Chances for precipitation Saturday, starting as snow and possibly mixed precip in the early morning then mostly rain by midday
- Large uncertainty for weather system early to mid week next week
UPDATE
Issued at 938 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Low-level flow is veering just a touch this morning, as low pressure on Hudson Bay gradually fills. Though Lk Superior activity remains north of Whitefish Pt, flurries/light snow showers off of Lake MI have moved south toward Boyne Falls/ Indian River/Vanderbilt. Have adjusted morning pop grids. Only a coating of new snow expected.
Otherwise a quietish day. Partly sunny outside the main snowbelts, though with winds picking up a bit again with some mixing. Temps will reach the low- mid 40s closer to Saginaw Bay, but mostly mid- upper 30s elsewhere.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Long wave trough axis that has been working its way east across North America this will now lined up along the Mississippi River...as a deepening upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest coast with short wave riding building into the Rockies.
Upper low and associated dynamic PV anomaly (dynamic tropopause down to nearly 600mb) lifting northeast past Lake Superior this morning.
Drier air has overspread most of southern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan but deeper moisture continues to wrap around the upper low from northwest Ontario across the western Lake Superior basin.
998mb surface low over southern Hudson Bay this morning...mesoscale trough axis across western Lower Michigan. Mixed skies across northern Michigan with some light snow/flurries across northern Lower...mostly ahead of a short wave trough axis crossing Lower Michigan. There are breaks in the clouds over northwest Lower and eastern Upper though additional Sc and light radar returns across central/western Upper and northern Wisconsin...which should be helped by boundary layer instability over northern Lake Michigan as sub -10C 850mb temperatures cross the 3-4C lake waters.
Overall pattern is quiet in the near term...general height rises across the Great Lakes with a weak short wave trough sliding across the area tonight. Persistent cyclonic boundary layer flow finally relaxes as a weak high pressure ridge builds into Wisconsin/Lower Michigan.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Nuisance light snow showers/flurries in spots today/tonight: Best chance for light snow/flurries today looks to be north of the M-72 corridor and especially focused through the Straits and out toward southeast Chippewa county/Drummond Island with the most persistent trajectory of low level moisture and upstream cloud cover will be enhanced by a trip across Lake Michigan. Farther north of the Straits indications are of an uptick in flurries/snow showers during the afternoon mostly driven by boundary layer processes. Tonight low level flow slowly starts to veer toward a more west- northwest direction...best thermodynamics expected to be around/ downwind of Whitefish Point with inversion heights around 800mb and cloud top temperatures poking up into the DGZ. Some stronger low level forcing won't hurt the cause either... for now have kept accumulations an inch or less around Whitefish Bay. Veering winds will likely bring clouds southward again into much of northern Lower with lake induced snow showers/ flurries probably increasing in coverage as well in favored northwest flow areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Light snow flurries will diminish Friday morning over eastern upper as ridging moves overhead. Temperatures will warm around 5 degrees more than today with winds remaining light and skies clearing up in the afternoon. Friday night into Saturday morning, two weak surface lows will approach MI (one from the NW and one from the SW). As they meet over MI, precipitation chances will spread across the state from W to E Saturday morning and linger through the day. Winds aloft remain zonal, which allows an elevated warm layer (2.5 - 5kft) to linger over northern lower. Model soundings depict chances for mixed precipitation, including non-zero chances for some freezing rain, where surface temperatures are able to remain below freezing Saturday morning (which will likely be near the tip of the mitt). At this time, precipitation accumulations remain light no matter how it falls (rain or snow). Temperatures should warm across the CWA to above freezing by mid day, allowing all precip to fall in the form of rain for Saturday midday and afternoon. Light snow will be possible Saturday night for eastern upper as precipitation moves out of the region.
Primary Forecast Concerns: There are a few areas of uncertainty for precipitation chances Saturday. As for areas of confidence, timing and moisture availability are stronger signals (around 89% of GFS/ECM ensemble members began precip between 12 and 18Z Saturday, and PW values only range around 0.2" with the mean around 0.5"). The uncertainty lies in precip type. Box plots of the aforementioned ensemble members 850mb temps over KGLR depict the median line right over 0C, and tails reaching evenly to +/-4C Saturday at 12Z. This means most guidance hovers right around freezing Saturday morning around Gaylord, leading to the non-zero chance of brief freezing rain. More of the box plot shifts below freezing for KPLN, and is totally below freezing for KANJ. This leads to more confidence in snow over eastern upper. As mentioned before, accumulations should remain light, which should lower potential impacts, however a few spots could become slick Saturday morning. Most precipitation should become rain by the afternoon hours as temperatures are forecasted to reach into the low to mid 40s Saturday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Zonal flow will be seen Sunday through early next week. Afternoon temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend for Monday and Tuesday. Winds near the surface become E/NE by Monday as a surface low over the central plains strengthens. At this time, there is high uncertainty for what weather northern MI will see mid week next week.
The strengthening surface low gets carried northward with a mid level trough/closed low, potentially tracking anywhere from central MI to OH/PA/NY. Not only is the track up for debate, but the timing, intensity, and available moisture are all depicted differently in deterministic and ensemble guidance. This results in wildly large ranges of ensemble values for 24hr QPF and snow.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
A trof of low pressure will swing across the area tonight, veering our winds to the wnw. Conditions will be mostly VFR.
However, lake effect clouds are expected to redevelop and lower tonight into Fri morning, along with some -SHSN. MVFR cigs are likely Fri morning at CIU, and are possible at PLN/TVC.
Gusty wsw winds this afternoon will weaken by evening, then veer wnw.
MARINE
Pressure gradient will continue to relax today as high pressure builds into Lower Michigan. But winds will remain gusty on Lake Michigan and through the Straits into far northern Lake Huron...and waves still 5+ feet within Lake Michigan nearshore zones outside of Grand Traverse Bay. So Small Craft Advisories will continue in Lake Michigan nearshore zones and will probably expand east into the Straits of Mackinac. Straits to False Detour zone as well as Whitefish Bay will probably flirt with small craft winds today.
Winds/waves should settle down by this evening...and not expected the need for additional headlines through Friday night.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
45212 | 44 mi | 69 min | 3 ft | |||||
SPTM4 - Sturgeon Point Light, MI | 62 mi | 141 min | SW 8G | |||||
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI | 67 mi | 31 min | W 12G | 36°F | ||||
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 | 67 mi | 53 min | W 11G | 36°F | 29.93 | 17°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Gaylord, MI,
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