Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:41PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 8:25 PM EDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 12:59PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 337 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the evening. A chance of rain in the evening. A chance of snow until early morning. Rain and a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Rain. Snow likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming east 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Rain and snow. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Rain and snow. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of rain and snow early in the morning. Rain and snow likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
LHZ362 Expires:201703230815;;915473 FZUS63 KDTX 221937 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 337 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.60 INCHES WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...STALLING OUT ON FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE OF 29.70 INCHES SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LHZ362-363-230815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 222020
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
420 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Near term (tonight and Thursday)
issued at 351 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Clear, cold, and calm tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Anomalously strong (2 to 3 standard
deviations above the mean) canadian high pressure system currently
centered over the upper great lakes will slowly drift southeast
across lower michigan overnight, reaching pennsylvania by daybreak
Thursday. Strong subsidence and a very dry airmass associated with
this system have allowed for clear as a bell skies across northern
michigan this afternoon, with the exception of some thin cirrus
spilling into eastern upper. Expecting upstream cirrus to
continue thinning out as it encounters the drier airmass over the
region this evening, so skies should remain clear across a
majority of the forecast area through the first half of tonight.

Mid/high clouds will start to increase from the west after
midnight ahead of the next approaching system. As the high departs
on Thursday, southerly return flow will develop over northern
michigan, but the very dry airmass should inhibit any showers from
developing most of the day. A shortwave will interact with
increasing WAA and a low level jet over northern minnesota to
generate showers out there around daybreak. Will have to watch how
this activity holds together as it slides east across the upper
peninsula Thursday morning. Thinking the lower levels will still
take quite some time to moisten up, so only a small chance for
perhaps an isolated shower across western chip/mack counties by
Thursday afternoon. Otherwise the bulk of precip in our forecast
area will hold off until Thursday evening.

Primary forecast concerns... Low temperatures tonight will be the
main forecast concern. Despite the stronger late march Sun angle,
temperatures today were running about 10 degrees below normal due to
the unseasonably cold airmass in place, unable to even reach 30f in
many locations. This leads to concern about how far temperatures
will drop heading into tonight with a very favorable radiational
cooling setup in place: light to calm winds, a very dry airmass
(dewpoints generally single digits below zero to around 10f this
afternoon), and clear to mostly clear skies for most of the night.

Raw deterministic guidance for lows tonight is way too warm
(suggesting teens north to 20s south). Though perhaps a bit too
cold, MOS guidance looks more reasonable, so have weighted tonight's
lows more towards mos. At this time, expect single digits to teens
across the entire area, but evening shift will have to watch trends
and evaluate if this is low enough.

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday)
issued at 351 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Unsettled pattern begins...

energy moving off the pacific will approach the great lakes region
late this week and likely linger all the way into early next week
due to a rather blocky pattern. Low level cold air cycling
southwestward around strong high pressure to the north may present
precipitation type issues (mainly at night) as warmer air advects in
at mid levels. Precipitation type will be the biggest challenge over
the next few days.

Thursday night... Mid/upper level and eventually low level moisture
increase out ahead of a surface warm front to our south. Plenty of
mid level warm advection with 850 mb temperatures rising to a few
degrees above zero across northern lower and to near zero in
eastern upper by 12z Friday. However... Strong surface high (1032
mb) to the north across ontario cycles in cold air at the surface.

This in combination with evaporative cooling as surface dewpoints
start off in the single digits and teens could lead to some
freezing rain and possibly even a little sleet initially I suppose
depending upon the timing (dry easterly flow will be slow to
moisten up fully to support precipitation). The only place I could
see any snow initially is across eastern upper where the warmer
mid level air arrives last. Still too early to pin down ice
accumulations (but likely a tenth of an inch or less) or possibly
headlines.

Friday into Saturday... Continued warm advection aloft with the
surface warm front likely remaining to our south. This will present
an overrunning situation likely leading to more precipitation. As
was the case initially, the strong surface high to the north should
continue to cycle in cold air. Given that it's late march surface
temperatures will likely warm enough during the day to support all
rain. At night with nocturnal cooling, freezing rain may become an
issue. The freezing/or not freezing is borderline so it will likely
be a near term issue based on current trends as to whether headlines
will be needed. The best chance of occurrence is across the northern
forecast area and over the higher terrain.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 351 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
high impact weather potential... Periods of icing potential this
weekend in the interior portion of N lower and in E upper.

Occluding low pressure will be moving through the area this weekend.

With rain expected during the day Saturday, temperatures dropping
below freezing overnight could make for slick surfaces. Potential
for a period of freezing rain continues to be a concern as well.

Have fzra in the grids for Saturday night, but the extent, timing,
and placement will certainly change over the next few days. Surface
temps in many areas are very close to the freezing mark, so
confidence this far out is moderate at best, as even a slight uptick
could leave just rain, minus the freezing aspect. This is a slow
moving system that could produce precipitation into early next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 123 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
vfr conditions will continue through the TAF period as a strong
canadian high and dry airmass move across the upper great lakes.

Just a bit of passing cirrus this afternoon and evening until
mid/high level clouds start to increase late tonight through
Thursday morning ahead of the next approaching system. Generally
northerly winds this afternoon will become light and variable this
evening as the high passes overhead. Winds will shift to the sse
Thursday morning, becoming slightly stronger than today.

Marine
Issued at 351 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
winds will become light and variable late this afternoon into early
evening as a strong surface high drifts across the area. Late
tonight as the high begins to depart, winds will become more
southerly, steadily increasing through the day Thursday and perhaps
reaching small craft advisory levels in some areas by Thursday
evening. Winds will then diminish through the second half of
Thursday night.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mek
short term... Ajs
long term... Alm
aviation... Mek
marine... Mek


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi38 min SSE 2.9 G 7 27°F 1033.5 hPa10°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi26 min S 15 G 16 26°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
NW15
G28
N15
G29
N16
G24
N15
G19
N8
G11
NE5
G12
N7
G17
N11
G17
NE9
G13
N8
G12
N4
N7
G11
N8
G12
NE6
G10
NE3
G10
NW6
G12
NW5
G9
NW6
G15
NE7
G12
NW8
G11
NW8
G11
S5
NE2
G6
S10
G14
1 day
ago
NW1
W2
N3
N6
G9
NW4
NW5
NW3
G6
NW2
NW2
--
NW1
NW3
NW8
NW10
G16
NW13
G20
NW14
G22
NW16
G29
NW13
G28
NW16
G27
NW23
G34
N22
G31
N20
G28
NW11
G22
N19
G30
2 days
ago
S4
S4
S5
SW3
SW5
SW2
S7
SW5
G8
S4
S5
S4
S4
SW2
G7
SW2
W3
S4
S4
S5
SE5
S3
S4
SW4
SW1
W1

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair25°F12°F57%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrNW18
G24
NW16
G25
NW15
G22
NW13
G18
NW10
G17
NW11NW9NW6N9N8NW8N8N10NW8N3NE7E7E3SE7SE5SE9----SE3
1 day agoSW4SW5W3W4W3W3W4NW6SW4SW5SW4SW5W8NW16
G20
NW11
G19
W15
G20
NW17
G23
NW18
G26
NW16
G27
NW16
G25
NW15
G23
NW17
G22
NW18
G27
NW12
G17
2 days agoS9S5S7S7S5SW7S6SW10
G17
S7S5SW8SW8SW10SW7SW7S8NW7CalmSW4E8SE5SE6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.