Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 8:50 PM   Moonset 5:46 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 955 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon - .
Overnight - North wind 15 to 25 knots. Isolated showers early in the evening. Isolated snow showers through the night. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Wednesday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Wednesday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 240155 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 955 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool tonight and Wednesday, turning warmer Friday into the weekend.

- Active weather this weekend with a chance for thunderstorms.

UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Cold front has cleared the area, leaving behind some lingering light showers along the M-55 corridor. A secondary piece of energy dropping across upper Michigan currently, with a few light radar returns. This secondary feature will drop across northern lower Michigan overnight, with the deepest moisture likely from I-75 eastward toward Lake Huron. Scattered rain and snow showers expected with this feature. Wouldn't be surprised to see some minor snow accumulations in a few locations. Gusty north winds, combined with falling temperatures through into the 20s, will result in wind chill values in the teens by morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, mid-upper level shortwave trough is centered just to our northwest across northern Ontario, the western UP into northwest WI. This feature progged to cross northern Michigan over the next 12 hours.
Meanwhile, associated elongated surface low stretched from Quebec southwestward into the WI will follow suit across the Great Lakes region. Intial cold front associated with this system has already crossed northern MI with focus on a secondary front currently sinking south across the eastern UP and northern Lake Michigan. This boundary is progged to slide southeast through northwest lower late this afternoon into mid- evening. A push of much colder air anticipated behind that cold front tonight through Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

Showers/storms into this evening; Marginal severe risk: Pre-frontal isolated to scattered showers continue to work their way across portions of northern Michigan as of early this afternoon with more sun north and more clouds south. Instability certainly struggling, as expected, but continues to be progged up to a couple hundred J/kg by later this afternoon across northern lower MI. Wind fields remain much stronger with pre-frontal 50-60 kts of deep layer bulk shear.
Chances for showers and a few storms remain the rule through mid- late evening with those chances sinking south across the CWA with time. Suppose there remains low chances of strong/severe wind gusts and small hail if any stronger storms are able to develop -- again aided by sufficient deep layer shear, a relatively dry sub-cloud layer and steep mid-level lapse rates. This threat across far southern reaches for the forecast area diminishes by 10pm or so.

Cool tonight through Wednesday: Beyond the aforementioned cold frontal passage, strong cold air advection will be the rule tonight through Wednesday on the heels of occasionally breezy northwest winds. This afternoon's temps of the upper 40s north to mid-60s south will come crashing down overnight with lows by Wednesday morning expected to span the 20s area-wide (wind chills ranging from the upper single digits to upper teens for Wednesday's bus stop time). While plentiful sun is anticipated for Wednesday, highs struggle to reach much past the mid-40s for most -- coolest near Lake Huron as winds take on a more northeasterly component.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Midwest as a trough digs across the Plains. This will result in quiet and mild weather for Northern Michigan (potentially leading to fire weather concerns) to end the week. By the weekend, a low pressure and its associated surface low are expected to develop in concurrence of the aforementioned trough and will track across the upper Midwest. This will result in in active weather for Northern Michigan and a chance for thunderstorms for this upcoming weekend.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Active weather this weekend with chance of thunderstorms: An upper- level low and its associated surface low pressure are expected to track northward from the central Plains to the upper Midwest.
Showers continue to appear likely, with a chance for some embedded thunderstorms. Looking at guidance, consistency in decent CAPE advecting into the region continues to make this setup something to keep an eye on. Along with showers, winds will increase for the weekend with the potential that some areas could see some pretty substantial wind gusts, especially Saturday. However, with this setup still being days away, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
A strong cold front will sweep across northern Michigan this evening, ushering in much cooler and drier air. A few lingering showers are still possible early, but those should dissipate by 02z. Winds will shift northerly and be gusty throughout the night. Widespread MVFR cigs developing with localized IFR cigs possible. Rapid improvement in cigs late tonight and early Wednesday, with VFR conditions developing at all terminals.
Generally north winds on Wednesday, still gusty at times.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.

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