Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:44 AM EST (10:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 433 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Today..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Snow likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201712131700;;821617 FZUS53 KAPX 130933 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 433 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-131700-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 130858
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
358 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 358 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Round of snow across central and southern lower michigan...

high impact weather potential... Clipper system brings accumulating
snow across central and southern lower michigan... Will be close
call for this cwa.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Early morning water vapor imagery
reveals a sharp negatively tilted trough axis running from hudson
bay through the mid atlantic coast with strong short wave energy
and surface low pressure running up through new england. Sharp
thermal gradient and resulting modestly strong upper jet streak
resides across the far western great lakes into the ohio valley
with a core of -20c h8 air skirting through northern michigan and
>0c h8 air nosing into wisconsin. Further upstream... Our next
short wave and attendant surface low is diving quickly into the
upper midwest along that thermal gradient. Already some light warm
advection fgen forced light precip stretching from the western
u.P. Down into lake michigan and just starting to edge into
western portions of lower michigan.

Primary forecast concerns... Snow accumulations and headline
potential today along the far southern portion of this cwa.

Short wave and attendant surface low will race quickly
southeastward today... With the surface low track essentially along
a line through chicago by midday and on across far southern lower
michigan northern ohio this evening... Before kicking eastward off
the atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Strong warm advection
forcing along the northeastern side of this system slides through
lower michigan through the course of the day with the heart of
strongest fgen deformation dynamics and highest QPF cutting across
west central lower michigan and down through SE lower michigan.

Broad upper vertical motion signal collocated through the dgz
should yield some higher snow->liquid ratios and a nice swath of
4 to 7 inch snowfall through central lower michigan.

Still some forecast uncertainty on the exact position and northern
extent of strongest forcing and heaviest snow... With various
guidance cycles wavering just bit on this point. Consensus still
keeps the heart of the heaviest snow just south of the cwa
(ludington through metro detroit)... With snow accumulations around
4 inches skirting the the m-55 corridor over through gladwin
county. Close call... But have decided to err on the side of
caution and nudge up snow accumulations just a bit from inherited
forecast... As well as push higher pops a little further northward.

Will also hoist winter weather advisory for manistee through
missaukee counties... And gladwin county with with 3-4 inch
accumulations across those areas.

System quickly kicks east of the region tonight with winds backing
southeast to north by Thursday morning. Will probably see some
lake effect lake enhancement along the lake huron shoreline ne
lower michigan later this afternoon through tonight (have added
some higher snowfall totals to arenac and iosco counties to
account for that)... And lake effect snow showers re-emerging
along the lake michigan and lake superior shoreline areas
overnight into Thursday.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 358 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Light lake effect possible Thursday followed by moderate snow
Thursday night through Friday...

high impact weather potential... Moderate snowfall amounts possible
Thursday night through Friday, especially within the W to N flow
snowbelts.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep longwave trough that's been
entrenched over the eastern CONUS for the last week or so will
finally begin to weaken and lift out of the region during the
period. This will happen as the highly amplified ridge over the west
coast begins to break down under the influx of another incoming
trough over the pacific northwest. Locally here in the upper great
lakes, 850mb temperatures will be warming just a little bit on
Thursday, but will still be cold enough to support some light nw
flow lake effect. Thursday night into Friday, a potent closed upper
low will dive south from northern manitoba into the upper great
lakes, with a surface low quickly developing in response over the
region.

Primary forecast concerns... Snow amounts through the period,
particularly Thursday night through Friday.

Winds Thursday will gradually back from NW to W during the day,
fairly light over land. Temperatures will be sufficiently cold at
850mb, but moisture will likely be a limiting factor for potential
lake effect activity. Looks like an increasing amount of dry air
just above the surface through the day and a nearly saturated layer
initially extending from roughly 925-850mb but becoming shallower
through the day. Inversion heights top out at around 800mb. So,
moderate confidence in the likelihood of some lake effect bands, but
don't anticipate they'll get out of hand with available moisture
looking rather limited. Backing wind direction should also help keep
snow amounts in check. As of now, only looking like around an inch
or less across portions of northwest lower and western chippewa co.

Thursday night through Friday looks more concerning in terms of
snowfall potential. Moisture will begin to increase Thursday night
out ahead of the next system with forecast soundings showing a
deepening saturated layer with time. Forcing will be somewhat
limited at first, but deepening lake aggregate troughing should
provide a favorable setup for intensifying snow bands overnight.

Additional synoptic support will arrive on Friday as an upper trough
drops in, and late in the day the closed upper low itself. Inversion
heights will be around 700mb or higher, so a favorable setup for
lake enhancement, especially within the W to N snowbelts. 850mb
temperatures actually look to be relatively "warm" compared to
recent days, hovering around -13 to -15c, but that will still be
sufficient given the still warm open waters. Also a respectable dgz
depth, coinciding with low level omega. All this to say, the setup
is looking more and more favorable for some decent snowfall Thursday
night through Friday for western chippewa county and northwest
lower, where snowfall may exceed 4 inches. Will have to monitor for
potential headlines for affected counties.

Also worthy of mention is that temperatures will gradually moderate
through the period with highs solidly back in the 20s by Friday.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 358 am est Wed dec 13 2017
high impact weather potential... Continued occasional chances for
snow and lake effect snow.

Lake effect snowfall will continue into Friday night, diminishing
towards daybreak Saturday. A band of isentropic ascent will push in
from the southwest on Saturday out ahead of an incoming clipper
system, which will provide snow chances over the weekend. This will
be followed by potential for some more lake effect on Monday and
Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue to moderate through the weekend into
early next week as upper flow pattern becomes more zonal. Gefs
member spread in surface temperatures has decreased quite a bit over
the last few runs, suggesting increasing confidence in the potential
for milder temperatures. Highs in the lower 30s look plausible,
perhaps even mid 30s near the coasts. That would introduce the
chance for some rain in spots as opposed to this seemingly perpetual
recent snowfall.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1209 am est Wed dec 13 2017
lake effect snow showers will slowly wane early this morning at
ktvc and kmbl. CIGS will be on the cusp between high end MVFR and
low endVFR. A band of snow tied to low pressure passing off to
our southwest will likely bring deteriorating conditions once
again to ktvc and kmbl later Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon. The storm track is a bit uncertain but if it's farther
north, then it may affect kpln and kapn as well. Conditions slowly
improve later Wednesday evening as the snow moves away to the
east.

Marine
Issued at 358 am est Wed dec 13 2017
weaker winds out there this morning... And will transition into
increasing southeast east winds today as low pressure passes down
through the lower great lakes region. Winds further back northerly
by Thursday morning. Some gustier winds higher waves redevelop
along the lake michigan and lake huron nearshore areas and may
require an new round of small craft advisories later this
afternoon and through tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for miz031>033-041.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
lsz321-322.

Near term... Ba
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... As
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi65 min SSE 1.9 G 7 18°F 1008.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi45 min ENE 7 G 8.9 12°F 1007.8 hPa (-1.3)4°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi65 min SSE 7 G 8.9 19°F 1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NW12
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G34
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N5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast13°F11°F90%1008.1 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi52 minS 410.00 miOvercast17°F10°F77%1008.4 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi50 minESE 74.00 miLight Snow13°F8°F83%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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N6N8N6N5N9N4N7N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE3CalmS4CalmS6S6SE4SE3S4S6S5S5S6S4S5N5NW9
G17
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N11
G19
NW8
G15
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G22
2 days agoSW5SW4SW5S4SW4CalmSW4CalmW7N6N4N8N5N8N5
G14
N6N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.