Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:37PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:07AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 339 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201704261545;;280612 FZUS53 KAPX 260739 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 339 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-261545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 261045
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
645 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 335 am edt Wed apr 26 2017
high impact weather potential... Low stratus/fog continues downwind
of lake huron. Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances today and
tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Elongated area of low pressure extends
from eastern iowa thru missouri into the southern plains early this
morning. Vast majority of precip associated with this system remains
nw of this line... With the only precip impacting our area attm
limited to eastern upper michigan along the far NE edge of deeper
moisture. Rest of our CWA remains mostly cloudy at this hour... With
plenty of low stratus/fog still streaming off of lake huron and into
portions of eastern upper and far NE lower michigan under the
direction of SE low level flow. Temps remain relatively mild at this
hour... Ranging from the 40s downstream of lake huron to the lower
60s along the lake michigan shoreline thanks in part to downslope
flow.

Low pressure will continue to lift NE thru wisconsin today and into
eastern upper michigan and eastern lake superior tonight. This
trajectory will keep our CWA along the eastern edge of deep moisture
and lift associated with this system. Some weak instability will
develop across our CWA this afternoon and tonight ahead of this
system... With mucapes holding below 1000 j/kg thru the entire
period. Some speed and directional shear will be available to
organize convection. However... Moisture will be lacking a bit... With
surface dwpts only in the 50s throughout the day. Certainly expect
some embedded thunder today... But expect any storms that do develop
to remain below severe limits. Pops will very slowly increase from
west to east across our CWA today and tonight as the deeper moisture
edges closer... With highest pops in the west of course.

Should be another mild day today... With afternoon highs ranging from
the upper 50s in eastern upper michigan as low stratus/fog continue
to stream into this area thru much of today... To the low to mid 70s
across much of northern lower michigan away from lake huron. Low
temps tonight will range from the upper 40s in eastern upper
michigan to the 50s across all of northern lower michigan.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 335 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

More rain showers expected...

low pressure finally moves across the region and drags a cold front
across the area by afternoon. This will likely lead to more showers
and perhaps thunderstorms. Instability isn't over impressive with ml
capes of only a few hundred j/kg across eastern zones early in the
afternoon just ahead of the front. Rainfall amounts should be on the
order of a tenth to a quarter of an inch with locally up to half an
inch possible. Much cooler air behind the front for Thursday night
into Friday. Another disturbance moving up from the south looks like
it will skirt the southern half of the forecast area with a chance
for showers Friday night. Models continue to struggle with this
system so confidence of any rain is on the low side.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 335 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Continued unsettled with cooler temperatures...

chilly pattern overall with another slow moving low pressure system
likely bringing showers to the region for much of the period. The
only day that looks rain free at this point is Saturday as high
pressure temporarily moves over the region.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Wed apr 26 2017
low stratus/fog will continue to stream into far NE lower michigan
(apn) off of lake huron this morning... With some improvement as
we head into the afternoon. CIGS will gradually lower fromVFR to
MVFR/ifr throughout today as low level moisture increases ahead of
low pressure moving thru wisconsin and in eastern lake superior.

Chances of showers will increase from west to east as well
throughout the TAF forecast period. There is a chance of thunder
this afternoon and tonight... But the chance is too small to
include in the TAF for now. Winds will remain from the s/se and
will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts this afternoon with some higher
gusts. Llws will develop late tonight.

Marine
Issued at 335 am edt Wed apr 26 2017
sca conditions will continue for all of our nearshore areas today
and into this evening as s/se winds continue to gust to 15 to 25
kts. Winds will diminish tonight... But will likely strengthen again
to SCA criteria on Thursday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase from west to east across our nearshore areas today and
tonight as low pressure lifts thru wisconsin and into eastern lake
superior. Low stratus and fog will continue to impact our lake huron
nearshore areas through much of today.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Near term... Mlr
short term... Ajs
long term... Ajs
aviation... Mlr
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi73 min SSE 5.1 G 12 59°F 1001.7 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi53 min ESE 12 G 15 42°F 1003.1 hPa (-1.7)42°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi73 min SE 8.9 G 13 62°F 1001 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NW8
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G15
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SE20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi59 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F51°F72%1001.7 hPa
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi61 minSE 8 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F53°F73%1000.3 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi60 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F52°F78%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S7S7
G14
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SE10S10
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G14
S8S4SE5SE9SE7SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S7S6SE8
G14
1 day agoCalmSE4SE6E6S3S6W3CalmS12
G17
SE11S12
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SE9SE14
G20
E4CalmSE5SE6SE6CalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW4N7N6NW7N8N6N7N7N7N6N6N4N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.