Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 6:44PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:22 AM EDT (06:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1053 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Periods of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201710221100;;214910 FZUS53 KAPX 220253 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1053 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-221100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220351
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1151 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017

Update
Issued at 1043 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017
scattered high and mid level clouds continue to stream northeast
across the area, well ahead of a slow moving cold front back
across the corn belt. Not expecting too much change overnight,
with a slowly thicken cloud deck as the front makes slow progress
east. Moisture may become just deep enough across northern lake
michigan and surrounding shoreline areas to kick off a few very
light showers by sunrise. Otherwise, another unseasonably mild
night, with overnight lows only dropping a few more degrees into
the mid and upper 50s.

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 333 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017

Summer's last stand...

high impact weather potential... Elevated fire danger into early
evening, as well as in NE lower mi Sunday afternoon.

Deep southerly flow continues, well ahead of a cold front advancing
across western mn ia. Mid high clouds continue in northern mi
(with thinning in SW sections), but no cu, and surface dew points
have again mixed out into the 30s in a few locales. Wx thru
tonight will be mostly quiet, but showers will make a push into
the region Sunday, along with the associated cold front.

Any real low-level moisture is found pretty close to the incoming
cold front. Even though surface dew points are climbing into the 50s
in wi, the SE half of the state has effectively no cloud cover. That
isn't stopping elevated showers from popping along a moisture
gradient and vort ribbon aloft, from the stl area up to almost beh.

This axis of elevated convection increasingly fades to virga with
northward extent. It's going to difficult for this to generate
precip this far north; NAM tries to spit out a few showers, toward
and especially after 06z. Am not inclined to bite on this (the
rap is dry, at least for that part of the area).

Pre-frontal moisture band does edge toward western sections very
late tonight. The rap is occasionally spitting our some showers
ahead of the front, some of which impact the northern lake mi
islands, and western mack co. A slight chance for a shower might be
justified here after 6am.

Min temps tonight in the 50s to near 60f, coolest in the interior of
ne lower mi, warmest along the lake mi coast.

Much better rain chances arrive Sunday from W to e, with the cold
front across eastern upper and making inroads into NW lower mi
during the afternoon early evening. Height falls aloft are subtle,
but present in the afternoon, especially in NW sections. The most
widespread precip is likely to be along and just behind the boundary
as it moves in. Chance pops warranted in NW lower and eastern upper
mi thru early afternoon. Likely to categorical pops push as far east
as rogers mio gladwin by early evening, with only chance pops thru
00z 8 pm east of there. Rainfall amounts of a quarter-inch or so are
expected in the west half of the forecast area. We might be able to
muster 200-300j kg of MUCAPE in northern lower mi. If coupled with
stronger forcing, would be comfortable mentioning isolated thunder.

But we don't really have that, and will omit any thunder mention for
now.

Max temps Sunday mainly in the 70s (some upper 60s near lake mi).

Another day of elevated fire danger in NE lower mi, with warm temps
and gusty winds ahead of incoming precip. However, rh levels will
be higher than today.

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 333 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017

The gales of late october...

high impact weather potential... Gusty winds winds on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The cold front is part way through the
forecast area at 00z Mon and looks to take the next 12 hours to move
through the rest of it. However, the ECMWF looks to slow down a bit,
as the 500 mb trough digs in behind the front. Another piece of
energy then digs into the 500 mb trough and begins to close off the
trough into a closed low, on the ecmwf. The GFS is a little slower
doing this overnight, so that by 12z Tue the 500 mb closed low is
somewhere over the upper great lakes. The sfc low then deepens and
moves to the n-ne, but at different speeds. This will affect the
winds, as the ECMWF will be much windier behind the low than the
gfs. We are looking at gales over the lakes either way, but the
ecmwf could be showing gustier winds. Will wait on the next run or
so to figure which way the models are going with this.

Primary forecast concerns... We can use a good soaker again, and
while we will get a decent amount of rain, but think that it will be
below the 2.5" in 6 hours that we would need for flooding. The other
issue of concern, as alluded to in the previous section, is the
forecast low track. If the ECMWF is right, it could end up quite
windy with gusts to 40 mph so possibly some sort of wind headline.

The GFS has moved the center of the low out, well north of the upper
great lakes, and the resultant gradient will support low end gales
on the lakes, but probably not wind headlines on the land. So will
have to watch the direction of the models.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 333 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017

Cooling off, but continued at or above normal...

extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)... The pattern definitely
looks to be flipping back to a fall like pattern with the usual
strong wind storms that usually move through the great lakes this
time of year. This also opens up the possibility of mixed
precipitation, mainly at night and at interior, higher elevation
locations, as we get close to the end of october. Tuesday night we
start off in the midst of the first 500 mb closed low of days 4-7.

It looks to try to lift out on Wednesday, only for a piece of energy
to move into the back side of the low and retrograde it a bit before
exiting and allowing the trough to lift out of the upper great lakes
by 12z thu. This will definitely cool us down and bring periods of
rain through the Wednesday night. Expect a brief dry period for
Thursday before the next bowling ball of cold air and rain moves
into the region for Friday and Saturday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1148 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017
vfr conditions through this morning will give to deteriorating
conditions this afternoon and evening as a slow moving cold front
moves into the region. Band of light to moderate showers will
spread west to east very slowly across the TAF sites later today
and tonight, likely bringing some vis restrictions and ifr cigs
along with them. Somewhat gusty south winds today will become
northwest as the front passes.

Marine
Issued at 333 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017
breezy southerly winds continue thru Sunday morning. A sharp cold
front will slowly push into northern mi Sunday afternoon and
night, with NW winds behind it. This front will also bring
widespread showers beginning Sunday afternoon.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... mb
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi43 min S 5.1 G 13 64°F 1015.9 hPa
45022 35 mi33 min S 16 G 19 65°F 60°F2 ft1016.2 hPa50°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi53 min SSW 14 G 18 67°F 1014.7 hPa37°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi43 min S 8 G 12 66°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi29 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F47°F54%1016.6 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi30 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds68°F50°F53%1015.3 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi29 minSSE 810.00 miFair65°F48°F55%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S7S8S5
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6SW7SW7SW6SW6SW7
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2 days agoSW5SW5W6NW5W4W3W5W4W8
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W5SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.