Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:37PM Thursday April 26, 2018 9:26 AM EDT (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 400 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and a chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201804261600;;048397 FZUS53 KAPX 260800 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-261600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 261048
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
648 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 242 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Warming up nicely today, ahead of a cold front tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Ridge of high pressure extends from the southern plains, up thru the
western lakes, across eastern upper mi, and on to just south of
james bay. There is a tiny bit of of cirrus wafting overhead,
otherwise skies are clear. The early morning is a bit chilly,
with temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s. However, no significant
barriers are expected to strong diurnal heating today. 850mb warm
advection is actually already underway on NW flow aloft, and that
will continue as the ridge passes and low-level winds back to the
wsw. MAX temps will spike nicely in response, with highs today
from mid 50s to mid 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy with time
today, as cirrus and mid clouds increase.

Tonight, a digging shortwave will slow as it pushes into lake mi and
eastern superior. That will drive a cold front fairly quickly across
northern mi in the 1st half of the night, before the front slows and
weak cyclogenesis proceeds over lake huron. Lots of pre-frontal dry
to contend with; good model agreement that clouds and some showers
will be primarily post-frontal. Not expecting anything to reach far
western chip mack cos thru 00z 8pm. However, sct showers will expand
into eastern upper and NW lower mi (nw of a lake city-rogers city
line) by 06z 2am. Overnight, sct showers spread into NE lower mi,
while a drying trend takes place in eastern upper and and lake mi
coast of NW lower. QPF could exceed 0.10" locally, but most places
will see less (and again overall pops will not exceed sct). With
colder air spilling back in behind the front, back edge of the
shower band could turn over to snow (not enough to amount to
anything). Min temps mainly in the low mid 30s, with some upper
30s near saginaw bay.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 242 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Shower threat ends, but remains cool...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: brief upper level ridging across michigan on
Thursday will quickly be replaced by shortwave troughing as several
perturbations arrive out of canada Thursday night through Friday.

The initial trough is progged to extend from near james bay
southwestward through international falls into the central
plains... Becoming draped overhead Thursday night. At the same time,
a secondary wave is expected to be positioned further northwest
across manitoba western ontario... Set to reinforce troughing through
the day Friday. A cold front attendant to the initial wave is set to
progress across northern michigan from NE to SE Thursday night into
early Friday morning, along with a scattered shower threat and a
return to below normal temperatures to wrap up the work week. The
secondary wave may spark a few additional showers, but its biggest
impact will be continuing below normal through at least Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: diminishing pops Friday.

By the start of the period Friday morning, a cold front is expected
to be positioned across the southeastern portion of the forecast
area with scattered showers trailing along and behind the front.

Expectation is that locations west of i-75 and across eastern upper
will likely be precip-free by sunrise Friday with lingering showers
limited to areas east of i-75 before shifting east of the forecast
area entirely by mid-late Friday morning. A lack of long-lived deep
layer moisture forcing along the front should limit the overall
coverage and intensity of lingering showers with many hard-pressed
to see appreciable rainfall before the shower threat ends.

Aforementioned secondary wave arrives Friday evening, perhaps
accompanied by additional scattered shower activity, this time
primarily across far west southwestern locales as the bulk of precip
is expected to remain across southeastern wi southern lake michigan.

Any lingering precip chances come to an end by Saturday morning with
increasing sunshine becoming the rule.

Below normal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period
with high temperatures both Friday and Saturday ranging from the mid
40s to near 50 degrees area-wide.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 242 am edt Thu apr 26 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Upper level troughing quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday
becoming replaced by pronounced ridging aloft through the start of
next week. Nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of high
pressure drifting from the plains into the great lakes by Sunday
with dry weather, lots of sunshine, and above normal temperatures
returning to start next week. Next threat for precip holds off until
later Tuesday, and more so Wednesday... Perhaps even the first
springtime convection as a tap to gulf of mexico moisture opens
ahead of a system moving across the heart of the conus.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 647 am edt Thu apr 26 2018
a touch of fog at mbl early this morning, otherwiseVFR until late
tonight.

High pressure is moving across lower mi, with mostly clear skies.

Some fog has formed at mbl, though that should not persist too
long this morning. High and mid clouds will increase a bit today.

A cold front crosses the region tonight, with some showers and
lower CIGS behind the front. MVFR CIGS progged at tvc pln apn late
tonight.

Sw breeze today, becoming NW tonight.

Marine
Issued at 242 am edt Thu apr 26 2018
ongoing light NW winds will back sw-erly today and pick up by
afternoon. However, winds waves should remain below advisory
criteria. A cold front GOES thru tonight, with winds veering nw,
but again staying light enough to preclude any advisories.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jz
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi47 min SW 4.1 G 7 40°F 1013.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi39 min W 7 G 9.9 38°F 1012.2 hPa14°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi32 minSW 310.00 miFair34°F29°F85%1013.5 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi34 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds41°F28°F62%1013.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair35°F30°F84%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4N8N6N6N6N7NW6----------------------------CalmSW3
1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW5NW5NW7N4N6N6N5N4N3NW6CalmN4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmNW6N5N6N4----------------------CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.