Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:50PM Thursday April 26, 2018 1:01 AM CDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 4:25AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 838 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 25 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of tonight..Variable winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north. Chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming south. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201804260800;;037381 FZUS63 KLOT 260138 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 838 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure of 30.0 inches over Lake Michigan tonight will move southeast Thursday. Low pressure of 29.7 inches will cross Ontario Thursday, steering a cold front across the lake Thursday night. A second low pressure of 29.7 inches will move across the southern part of the lake Friday evening steering another cold front down the lake. High pressure of 30.3 inches will then build over the Great Lakes for the weekend. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-260800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 260343
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1143 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Update
Issued at 927 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018
skies have cleared, and expect them to remain mostly clear through
the overnight with just a few passing high clouds during the
early morning hours. Dry air at the surface continues to filter
into the region, with dew points dropping into the 20s. Combine
that with those clear skies and light calm winds, and the
downward temperature spiral established this evening will
continue. Inherited lows well down into the 20s, with even some
upper teens north of the big bridge, appear on target.

Near term (tonight through Thursday)
issued at 257 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
weak low pressure was pressing through the eastern great lakes this
afternoon, with a trailing cold front draped into the ohio river
valley. The shallow cooler and moist air mass in it's wake continued
to result in stubborn low level dreary clouds over most of NRN lower
and eastern upper michigan. The moisture was stuck under a weak
inversion around 4kft. Despite to slower clearing trend, there
continues to be dry air advection and clearing skies coming in from
the north and west. This is on the forward flank of sfc high
pressure and mid level ridging stretched from ontario into the
rockies. Further north and west behind this high pressure, was the
next shortwave trough and cold front, which were resulting in spotty
showers across manitoba and into far NW ontario.

Pretty quiet weather through Thursday. The drier air will gradually
take over from NW to SE into tonight, with the full expectation for
skies to clear. The sfc high pressure and mid level ridging settles
in overnight, which will lead to great radiational cooling. Seeing
as how the bl hasn't been mixed out as well as planned, wondering if
some shallow ground fog can develop in some low lying areas. This
will be more likely across NE lower, where clearing will be last to
occur. The sfc cooling is likely to lead to cooler overnight lows
than what MOS is providing, and have lowered readings down to the
upper teens and lower 20s over much of the area. This also GOES for
coastal communities, as slight land breezes are expected to develop.

Thursday will be quite the nice day. Calm near calm winds and plenty
of Sun will start out the day, with only some increased high level
cloud through the day. Winds will back around more out of a
southerly direction ahead of the low pressure and cold front. Waa
leading to quite the jump in temperature. A good 35-40f diurnal
swing anticipated, with highs getting well into the 50s and lower
60s.

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday)
issued at 257 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Cooler temperatures once again...

primary forecast concern... Pops and precipitation type late Thursday
night into early Friday.

More of the same with the chilly temperatures one day then mild ones
the next. So after our mild readings Thursday, another cold front
will move across the region Thursday night with scattered showers
likely behind it. Model soundings are marginal as far as
precipitation type so can not rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing
in with the rain showers. Cooler Friday with partly to mostly cloudy
skies. An alberta clipper moving through the flow Friday night now
looks to pass by to our south keeping any precipitation out of our
forecast area. The cool temperatures hang around into Saturday but
with partly to mostly sunny skies and brisk northwest winds. The
next warmup is on tap for Sunday and especially early next week.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Lows at
night in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 257 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018
nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of high pressure
drifting from the plains into the great lakes to start the extended
period. Expect lots of sunshine, and above normal temperatures
returning for the end of the weekend into the first part of the new
work week. Early trends suggest much of the northern lower could be
well into the 70s for high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. A
system approaches the region from the west as aforementioned high
pressure moves off the carolina coast... Which would swing the gulf
door wide open for moisture. The eta of associated precip is a bit
fuzzy... With the chance for some "opening act" showers early
Tuesday... But i'm thinking the main show will be Wednesday. Either
way, it is still very, very early... But maybe we'll see our first
springtime convective activity by mid week?

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1142 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018
vfr conditions expected under just a few passing high clouds
through today. Lower CIGS arrive this evening, but look to remain
inVFR category. Light winds expected through the period.

Marine
Issued at 257 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018
weak low pressure and a cold front pushed through the region last
night and into this morning, leaving behind a decent enough pressure
gradient for some lower end advisory level gusts. Made some
adjustments to the nearshore waters in the advisories, mainly
extending the headlines for the bridge down through presque isle due
to coastal convergence. Higher pressure pressure does settle in late
tonight and into Thursday however with much lighter winds. The next
cold front arrives Thursday night, bringing chances for rain and
snow showers. Winds turn more southerly ahead of this front, with at
least a chance for more low end advisory speeds for over lake
michigan. A fairly sharp wind shift out of the NW is expected behind
the front Thursday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Smd
short term... As
long term... Kb
aviation... mb
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi81 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 32°F 1015.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi81 min 35°F 1014.9 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi81 min SSW 1 G 2.9 34°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair31°F27°F89%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N6N5N6N7N9
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N7N6N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W7W5W9W8NW7N8NE6N6NE9N6N6N7N6N8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE5NE7N9N9
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N3NE3E5NE4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.