Wednesday, July26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday July 25, 2017 11:33 PM CDT (04:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:59AMMoonset 9:52PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 846 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 25 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday night..North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ364 Expires:201707260800;;835293 FZUS63 KLOT 260146 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 846 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.2 inches over New England will slowly move off the east coast Wednesday night. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.5 inches over northwest Ontario will move east to James Bay by Wednesday evening. A trailing surface trough will slowly move south over the northern part of the lake Wednesday evening. Another low pressure around 29.8 inches will develop along this trough, just south of Lake Michigan Wednesday night, and move east to the Mid Atlantic by Thursday night. High pressure of 30.1 inches will build over the lake by Friday night and hold through the weekend. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-260800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 260400
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1200 am edt Wed jul 26 2017

Update
Issued at 1015 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017
strengthening warm moist advection is edging ever closer to
northern mi this evening. Upstream activity was struggling to make
eastward progress before, but leading edge of more organized
activity has reached the west short of lake mi, on up to mqt. A
still-increasing low level jet will continue to push a richer
airmass into the region. That all said, at the moment the airmass
over our head is not supportive of deep convection, thanks to a
warm dry capping layer at 800-700mb (per 00z apx sounding).

Moistening this will take a good chunk of the night. So this first
wave of convection will still tend to weaken as it moves in,
though it will bring sct precip to western northern sections.

Better heavier rain chances will not arrive here until after 4
am, mainly for eastern upper and far NW lower mi (where the 850mb
theta-e ridge folds into).

Some fine-tuning of pops and cloud timing in order, with a general
trend to boost pops somewhat overnight (especially late).

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 352 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017

Increasing shower chances tonight...

high pressure will continue to provide dry conditions thru this
afternoon, but with the high sliding southeast overnight clouds
will increase from the northwest to southeast with increased
chances for showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm late
tonight closer to daybreak Wednesday.

Short term (Wednesday night through Friday)
issued at 350 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017
trough of low pressure will skirt the northern great lakes wed,
with the frontal boundary sagging south across the forecast area.

But with a somewhat progressive flow, the boundary will continue
to push south by thur morning as yet another ridge of high
pressure builds in from the northwest. This will then return dry
conditions to the region thru Fri with temps becoming more
seasonal in the mid upr 70s to near 80 away from the lakes. Weak
pressure gradient may allow light lake breeze development, and
subsequently cool areas adjacent.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 350 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017
high impact weather potential...

ensembles are in good agreement with ridging building across the
western conus, which will keep the great lakes region in a quasi-
northwest flow thru the weekend into early next week.

Unfortunately this also means weak lobes of vorticity can easily
dive southeast and bring a chance for showers and possibly a
thunderstorms. Presently operational solutions indicate dry
weather sticking around through sat; however, the latest GFS does
suggest a weak vort trying to slide across the northern great
lakes Sat and could bring a brief chance for showers. But have
presently discounted this scenario and maintained a dry forecast.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1156 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017
llws tonight. MVFR CIGS reaching pln Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure near lk ontario will move east, allowing a weak
cold front to cross northern mi Wednesday night. Shower
thunderstorm activity has already arrived in NW lower mi, and will
increase further ahead of the front. Lower CIGS will arrive in
the vicinity of the front, the pln the 1st to see MVFR CIGS later
on Wednesday.

S to SW winds, somewhat gusty on Wednesday. Llws tonight, with
strong S to SW winds just off the surface.

Marine
Issued at 352 am edt Tue jul 25 2017
light winds this morning will give way to increasing southerly
flow later today and particularly tonight... As a cold front
presses into the region from the west. Small craft advisory
winds waves are likely to develop tonight... Particularly on lake
michigan and whitefish bay and continue into Wednesday.

Winds waves will gradually diminish through the day Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through Wednesday evening for miz015.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Beach
long term... Beach
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi43 min SSW 19 G 23 69°F 66°F3 ft1019.5 hPa (-0.0)
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi53 min SW 7 G 11 68°F 1021 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi53 min SSE 6 G 12 66°F 1018.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi53 min S 23 G 28 68°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi38 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast72°F53°F51%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW3W8SW7SW6
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1 day agoN3NE5N8N6CalmN3CalmN7N8N10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW6W3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3SW8SW5W9W8NW10
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N8N5N4N5N4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.