Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:42PM Monday September 25, 2017 5:23 PM CDT (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 9:53PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 249 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 25 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt overnight. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..North winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to east 5 to 10 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201709260330;;922687 FZUS63 KLOT 251949 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.8 inches over eastern Iowa will move to Lake Superior on Tuesday...trailing a cold front across the lake late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The low will then deepen to 29.6 inches as it pulls away into western Quebec by early Wednesday. High pressure of 30.2 inches will spread slowly east from the Plains Wednesday...with weaker ridging of 30.1 inches extending across southern Lake Michigan by early Thursday. Low pressure of 29.9 inches will pass just northeast of the Lakes by early Friday...with another cold front pushing across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will build across the western Lakes Saturday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-260330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251934
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
334 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Still hot Tuesday...

high pressure will hold on for a little bit longer across northern
michigan bringing more unseasonably warm conditions through
Tuesday. Perhaps some patchy fog out there again tonight,
otherwise mostly clear skies expected. More record high
temperatures will likely be broken or challenged
Tuesday... Especially at glr, tvc and pln. An approaching cold
front will result in low end shower or thunderstorm chances later
Tuesday afternoon across far western sections of the forecast area
(though there isn't a lot of CAPE to work with per model
soundings). Lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Tuesday ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Snapping back to autumn reality...

high impact weather potential... Slight chance of a thunderstorm or
two Tuesday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Flattening upper ridge quickly erodes as
it gets shunted east Tuesday evening. An open mid-level wave lifting
through ontario and a corresponding surface low tracking through
lake superior will push a potent cold front through northern
michigan Tuesday night. This front will usher in a sharply colder
airmass with temperatures running a good 20+ degrees cooler than the
current warm stretch (but near normal for late september). Broad
upper troughing will then remain overhead through Thursday, despite
a surface ridge nosing into northern michigan from Wednesday through
Thursday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... Chance for a bit of much needed rainfall
for some locations Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Still looking like a decent chance for a bit of rainfall with the
cold front's passage Tuesday night. However, not all of northern
michigan is expected to see scattered showers, and those that do
(mainly eastern upper and tip of the mitt) will likely not receive
much (less than a quarter inch). Models continue to show a ribbon of
higher pwats ahead of the front, but that is mainly tied to the
anomalous surface dewpoints initially in the lower 60s (but dropping
quickly behind the front). Forecast soundings actually reveal the
depth of moisture is not too great and doesn't last for more than a
few hours before the column begins drying out in the mid levels.

Forcing along the front and from the shortwave, though not
particularly strong, looks better supported near and north of the
straits. Very marginal instability along and ahead of the front,
perhaps enough to support just a few rumbles of thunder through
around midnight.

Perhaps a lingering shower or two over eastern upper Wednesday
morning, but otherwise clouds should gradually thin out, giving way
to partly sunny skies as high pressure ridge noses into the area.

Clouds will gradually increase on Thursday ahead of the next
shortwave and a reinforcing cold front dropping in from the
northwest. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers heading
into Thursday night.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
as maria continues to lift off over the atlantic, the downstream
blockiness will wane allowing a much more progressive pattern over
the CONUS than we have seen the past few days. The troughing that
has been persistent over the western CONUS will begin working into
the region by mid-week and continue into the weekend. This will get
temperatures closer to normal levels, perhaps even a bit below
normal by Friday. H8 temperatures could be sufficiently cold enough
to drive some lake effect rain showers starting Thursday night and
through the day Friday. High pressure will again build into the
region over the weekend, with temperatures rising through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week when we could see some
areas nearing 70 degrees again, about 10 degrees above normal but
not to the extent we are currently experiencing.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 126 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
the large upper level ridge will remain across the region through
much of Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night.

Very warm conditions will continue through the TAF period. Just a
few CU today... With an outside chance of a storm this afternoon
near apn due to a breeze off of lake huron. Otherwise, no issues
anticipated except for any patchy fog that may develop late
tonight early Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday as
high pressure moves slowly off to our east. Chances of precip
will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
sweeps across michigan. Northwest winds will increase late
Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the front with SCA gusts
possible on some nearshore zones.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... As
short term... Mk
long term... Am
aviation... As
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi94 min S 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 68°F1 ft1014.5 hPa (-1.4)
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi44 min Calm G 5.1 80°F 1014.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi44 min SSE 7 G 11 77°F 1013.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi44 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi28 minWSW 310.00 miFair80°F61°F54%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4W7SW6W5W4W3SW3
1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW8SW7SW7W6SW4SW7
2 days agoNE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS9
G14
CalmS4S6S5S4SW4CalmS4S6SW8SW7SW6
G14
SW7S6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.