Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:31PM Thursday February 22, 2018 8:11 PM CST (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:15AMMoonset 12:40AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 744 Pm Cst Thu Feb 22 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of snow this evening...then rain with a wintry mix overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 kt veering to west. Patchy fog in the morning. A wintry mix in the morning...then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt...then becoming north 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..East gales to 35 kt becoming southeast gales to 40 kt. Rain, chance of snow and light sleet in the evening...then rain overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 45 kt. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Sunday night..West gales to 40 kt diminishing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201802231030;;399999 FZUS63 KLOT 230144 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 744 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.8 inches over southern Quebec will push to the east late tonight and Friday morning. A low of 30.1 inches will lift from the mid Mississippi Valley early Friday to the western Great Lakes Friday afternoon. High pressure of 30.5 inches will build across the Dakotas Friday and move to Quebec Saturday. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains Friday night and lift across Lake Superior Sunday at 29.0 inches. A 30.2 inch high will build over the Central Plains Monday and move to the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-231030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 222304
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
604 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 315 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Another round of a wintry mix of precipitation later tonight
into Friday...

high impact weather potential: mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing
rain expected to bring some difficult driving conditions later
tonight into Friday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: active pattern remains as deep southwest
flow continues between anomalously strong west atlantic ridging and
nearly as impressive western trough axis. Elevated warm air
advection and overhead upper jet core bring plenty of mid and upper
level clouds to northern michigan, although maintenance of
impressive low level dry wedge is keeping conditions dry. That is
about to change as wave at base of western trough follows a similar
path to its predecessors, cutting across the northern lakes later
tonight and Friday. Attendant northward surging warm nose aloft and
stubborn to yield low level cold dome once again sets the stage for
a wintry mix of precipitation to overspread the region.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing timing and amounts
of that wintry mix of precipitation, as well as attendant headline
decisions.

Details: dry evening gives way to more active weather later tonight
into Friday as strong WAA and deeper moisture surge north along with
that ejecting wave. Greatest mid level support passing to our
northwest, and convection well to our south partially impacting
northward moisture transport, does argue for an overall light precip
event (largely under a quarter of an inch) for northern lower, with
slightly heavier amounts north of the big bridge. What type that
precip takes remains a much more formidable forecast challenge. Warm
nose aloft surges north nearly in lock-step with precipitation later
tonight, with above freezing elevated warm layer reaching up near
the straits by morning. Initial dry lower levels does allow some
evap cooling potential, perhaps delaying this northward warm surge
just a bit, allowing a period of snow sleet mixture (especially
further north). Still think much of northern lower experiences at
least a period of freezing rain drizzle as overnight surface
temperatures dip below freezing, with the greatest impacts centered
on the interior highlands where surface cold air will be a bit more
stubborn to yield. Not expecting any significant ice accumulations,
likely at or under a tenth of an inch. Warmer surface air and loss
of better dynamics does change precip over to just plain light
rain drizzle from southwest to northeast during the morning. Still,
given expected impacts during the morning commute from that light
icing, with go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory for much of
northern lower michigan later tonight through Friday morning. As for
eastern upper... They definitely look to stay in the cold air much
longer, supporting mainly snow before transitioning over to a light
mixture just as precip ends early Friday afternoon. While expected
qpf amounts alone does support advisory level snow amounts, perusal
of guidance derived soundings show a very elevated dendritic growth
layer and an extended in-cloud layer warmer than -10c... Both
supporting much lower than climo snow-to-liquid ratios. While
expected snow amounts of 2 to 3 inches is below advisory level
criteria, very wet nature of the snow and brief periods of very
restricted visibility will no doubt result in some significant
travel impacts. After coordination with mqt, will go ahead and
introduce winter weather advisories for our eastern upper counties
also.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 315 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

More freezing rain likely Sat night; very windy Sunday...

primary forecast concern... Freezing rain potential Sat night early
Sunday.

The mild but active weather pattern will continue through this
weekend. As far as the weather goes, high pressure will lead to
quiet conditions Friday night into Saturday. A potent but fast
moving area of low pressure tracking by to our west will then likely
bring another period of freezing rain (possibly starting as a
little snow or sleet) overnight Saturday into early Sunday across
northern lower with snow and freezing rain expected across
eastern upper. This could lead to slick roadways and difficult
travel conditions once again. Very windy conditions expected
Sunday with wind gusts possibly reaching between 40 and 50 mph.

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday in the middle 30s to the
middle 40s. Lows Friday night in the upper teens and 20s followed
by lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s Saturday night.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 315 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
a deepening low pressure system over the upper mississippi river
valley will make it's way into the northern great lakes region
Saturday night... Producing precipitation throughout the entire
forecast area. The exact track of said storm system and
precipitation type remains a bit uncertain as long range models seem
to be in disagreement. As this system departs it is safe to say that
there will be a bit of light lake effect snow clouds as colder air
filter in on westerly winds by Sunday afternoon. This lake effect
will be light as delta TS are very marginal, drier air moving in,
and flow is anti-cyclonic with a strong high pressure system
building into the great lakes from the south. These westerly winds
will be gusty, with winds of 25-30mph possible. A clipper system
then skirts the northern great lakes producing more chances of light
snows through Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be in the
low 30s to near 40, while lows will be in the 20s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 604 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
vfr conditions into this evening gives way to MVFR ifr conditions
very late tonight into Friday morning as low clouds and a light
mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow spread north across the
airports. Not expecting too much precipitation, but light snow
and freezing rain will definitely have some impacts. Low level
wind shear to develop across the region tonight, slowly ending
Friday morning.

Around an inch expected at pln with primarily just light freezing
rain changing over to rain drizzle. Ice accumulations around 0.05"
or less.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 11 am est Friday for
miz016>036.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Friday for miz008-
015.

Near term... mb
short term... As
long term... Tl
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi32 min E 7 G 11 32°F 1034.5 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi32 min 31°F 1032.8 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi32 min E 8 G 11 30°F 1033.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi17 minE 310.00 miOvercast35°F23°F63%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmE3E5SE3E3E4E4E6SE7E7E4CalmE5E4
1 day agoW7W10W11W10
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N6NW6NW7NW9NW10NW7NW6NW5W6W5W5W5W4CalmCalm
2 days agoE6E7SE9SE7E5E4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmW7
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CalmSE5S6S5S12
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W7W8CalmW5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.