Sunday, April22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, MT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday April 22, 2018 3:50 PM MDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, MT
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location: 45.05, -110.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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Fxus65 kbyz 222048
area forecast discussion
national weather service billings mt
248 pm mdt Sun apr 22 2018

Short term Valid for Mon and tue...

no big changes in the short term forecast. Models in good
agreement with precipitation getting going over western zones
early this evening as strong jet divergence develops overhead.

Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm early this evening western
mountains foothills, but CAPE not supportive of a mention in
zones at this point so will leave out for now and monitor radar
trends. Precipitation will spread from west to east tonight into
tomorrow morning as the upper dynamics press across the area. The
upper divergence will deepen low pressure below 800mb which in
turn will increase low level east to northeast winds tonight. This
upslope flow will get quite deep and combine with conditional
instability to bring a very efficient precipitation producing set
up through at least tomorrow afternoon. QPF amounts from all the
models look impressive with 0.75 to 1.25 inch amounts looking
widespread from tonight through tomorrow. Latest ensemble mean for
billings showing 0.90 inches of precipitation. With high
confidence in precipitation have categorical precip chances for
most locations by tomorrow morning when strongest forcing aloft
moves into the area.

Big question then is how much of this precipitation will fall as
snow and then actually accumulate given the warmer ground
conditions and the late april Sun angle. Ran snow ratios based on
surface temperatures and came up with advisory type accumulations
for the western foothills from late tonight through about noon,
and will issue an advisory with this package for those locations.

Elsewhere expect that locations below 4500 feet will likely see an
inch or less accumulation on unpaved surfaces as the dynamic
cooling arrives during the day tomorrow over central and eastern
zones. The exception may be the higher hills and foothills from
southern big horn and sheridan counties east into powder river and
carter counties. Snow rates may be heavy enough to produce
advisory accumulations in these elevated locations despite the
daytime, and if snow continues into Monday night that could also allow
for better accumulations. Would not expect roads to be a problem
in general during the daylight hours, but Monday night could be a
different story. Still a bit of time to see how this system plays
out before going with a highlite for these southern zones and
will let mid-shift interrogate another model run before pulling
the trigger.

System exits the area Tuesday for a dry and seasonally cool day.

Hydrology... With precipitation expected to be widespread tonight
into Monday night expect to see some rises on area waterways. At
this time flooding is not expected but will monitor the
hydrographs closely, especially in foothills areas where snow melt
is ongoing. Chambers

Long term Valid for wed... Thu... Fri... Sat... Sun...

Wednesday starts out sunny with downslope winds, but a clipper
system will move through late in the day into the Wednesday night.

Cant rule out a stray shower as winds turn northerly and cooler
air drops in, but this looks like a mainly dry frontal push.

Amplified ridge aloft pushes into the area late Thursday into
Friday for dry and warmer conditions. Next storm system begins to
take shape just west of the area on Saturday. Right now Saturday
looks dry, but timing differences could bring showers in a bit
earlier so will have to keep an eye on that. This system could get
interesting as it looks to tap some gulf moisture and slide in
negatively tilted from wyoming, with the ingredients for a multi-
day widespread precipitation producing system. Could be some
thunderstorm potential mixed in too. Still a long way out though
but bears monitoring this week. Chambers

A storm system will impact the area tonight through Monday night.

ExpectVFR conditions to deteriorate from west to east tonight as
precipitation develops. MVFR to ifr conditions are anticipated
tonight west of a forsyth to sheridan line, with all areas seeing
MVFR to ifr at times on Monday. Mountain obscuration will become
predominant by late this evening over the beartooth absarok and
crazy mountains, and by sunrise over the bighorns. Precipitation
will start as rain but mix with or change over to snow in most
areas by Monday morning. Chambers

Preliminary point temp pops
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat sun
bil 038 043 030 057 037 070 038 063 042 073 042 072 041 070
99 o 20 u 00 u 21 u 00 u 01 u 22 w
lvm 034 040 025 057 031 065 033 065 036 070 037 069 037 063
++ o 20 b 01 u 21 u 01 u 12 W 22 w
hdn 038 044 031 058 033 070 036 061 040 072 041 072 040 071
89 o 31 u 00 u 21 u 00 u 01 u 22 w
mls 040 045 031 056 035 067 037 062 040 071 041 070 042 069
69 r 30 u 00 u 10 u 00 u 00 u 12 w
4bq 040 047 032 052 033 066 037 059 039 069 039 069 040 069
49 r 71 b 00 u 11 u 00 u 00 u 22 w
bhk 039 044 030 053 032 066 036 056 037 067 039 066 040 064
29 r 60 u 00 u 00 u 00 u 00 u 12 w
shr 039 042 028 054 027 066 035 061 036 070 039 070 040 070
69 r 62 o 00 u 21 u 00 u 11 u 23 w

Byz watches warnings advisories
Mt... Winter weather advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
noon mdt Monday for zones 40-41-56-64>66.

Wy... None.

Weather.Gov billings

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Yellowstone, MT32 mi56 minSSW 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F26°F35%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from WYS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW12
1 day agoNE11NE7
2 days agoNE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of NorthernPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Billings, MT (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Billings, MT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.