Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alpena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:21PM Monday June 18, 2018 3:15 AM EDT (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 344 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201806180345;;689057 FZUS53 KAPX 171944 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-180345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpena, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.07, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 180709
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
309 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
impactful weather: maybe a few non-severe thunderstorms with a cold
frontal passage today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
the mid level ridging that has been overhead was starting to get
suppressed by a shortwave trough dropping SE out of south central
canada. This has been forcing the main channel of vort maxes
southward from the central plains through wisconsin and nrn
michigan, underneath an elongated LLJ and moisture feed axis which
was positioned ahead of a cold front. This was resulting in a large
corridor of showers and isolated thunderstorms, aided by right
entrance region upper divergence from 120+kt upper jet laid out
across the eastern half of canada. The better winds aloft have aided
in overall bulk shear, but low to mid level lapse rates have been
gradually becoming less steep resulting in loss of mucape. Behind
the canadian shortwave, sfc high pressure was centered over srn
alberta and saskatchewan.

The train of individual vort maxes shortwaves and LLJ moisture
transport axis ahead of the cold front will continue to bring rounds
of showers and isolated thunderstorms to primarily NRN lower this
morning. The aforementioned canadian shortwave was continue to press
se through the day and night, essentially shoving all forcing and
showers southward from later this morning through this afternoon. A
weakening LLJ and upper divergence (departing upper jet) through the
day, ought to result in a gradual decrease in areal coverage and
intensity of the convection. Maybe some remnant showers will still
be around near along the m-55 corridor into this evening. Not
thrilled too much with thunder, as instability is expected to
continue to slowly wane through the day. The sfc high pressure with
the greatest drying clearing will work it's way into lake superior
late tonight.

There is some concern that the back end of the cold front's
southward progress gets held up into later in the night. This due to
a closed upper low in the rockies that wants to continue to pump
more shortwave energy NE into the midwest. This could mean some
overrunning WAA showers clouds could possibly linger around longer
into tonight in the vicinity of manistee.

Highs today in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows tonight in the
50s, coolest across eastern upper in weakest winds and best
clearing.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
high impact weather potential: none
pattern synopsis forecast: the cold front that moved through the
state Monday will continue to sag south through the eastern CONUS as
high pressure drops south out of canada. The encroaching cooler air
behind the front will continue to dampen the ridging that has been
building over the eastern conus, and keep the more warm and humid
airmass suppressed to our south. A potent shortwave is expected to
develop over the central plains by mid-week, possibly lifting into
the great lakes over the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: weather will be quiet through mid-week,
and into the weekend, as high pressure settles in behind the cold
front. With a cooler and drier air mass moving in, temperatures will
run much closer to normal, though still slightly above. We should
see lake effect development, which may kick off a random shower or
two, but the next real chance for showers won't come until the
arrival of the shortwave over the weekend.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
with high pressure overhead until late in the week, the weather will
remain warm and quiet. The next chance of rain will come over the
weekend, as a system lifts out of the plains and through the great
lakes. There is surprisingly decent agreement in long term solutions
for arrival on Saturday, considering this will a cutoff low over the
plains. Timing may need adjustments here and there, but the blend
pops for Saturday look good.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 150 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

More showers and a period of MVFR ifr...

a cold front will slowly drop south across the region late tonight
into early this afternoon. This front will bring more showers, and
possibly a few non-severe thunderstorms around tvc mbl. A period of
MVFR ifr CIGS will accompany the front as winds turn more westerly
off lake michigan, and low levels further saturate. May even see
some fog across NW lower by around daybreak. As the front continues
to press southward through NRN michigan, CIGS will lift, and skies
will decrease in cloudiness.

Westerly winds will gradually turn more northerly, then easterly
late Monday night.

Marine
Issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
still no major marine concerns for several days, outside of some
continued areas of fog through this morning, while still in a
warm humid air mass. A cold front associated with the current
corridor of showers and isolated storms impacting lake michigan and
huron will drop from north to south through the day, and skies will
gradually be decreasing in clouds later this afternoon and tonight,
mainly in the NRN nearshore waters. There is some concern that
clouds and a chance for additional showers can linger around longer
in the SRN nearshores, particularly point betsie to sleeping bear
point. This pattern looks to continue into Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 1 mi46 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 1011 hPa68°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 1 mi26 min W 4.1 G 4.1 73°F
45162 11 mi36 min W 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 57°F1 ft
TBIM4 13 mi26 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 67°F
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 37 mi86 min NW 12 G 14 50°F 39°F1 ft1011.5 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Alpena, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
S2
SE2
S1
SE3
S3
N1
S1
NW4
G7
NW3
G6
S6
SE5
S5
SE5
S3
W9
G17
SW5
G13
W6
G12
W7
G10
W5
G10
W5
G9
SW3
SW3
G6
NW4
G7
W3
1 day
ago
SE4
S4
G9
S6
G9
S4
G7
SE4
G8
S5
G9
S4
S4
SE5
G11
S8
G11
SE3
G6
SE4
S4
S4
E2
S5
SW5
SE3
SE1
SW1
SE1
S1
SE3
NE2
2 days
ago
N5
NW4
NW3
G7
N2
NE3
S4
S6
SE6
G9
S7
S7
SE3
G6
S8
S8
G11
S9
G12
SE5
G10
SE4
G7
S6
G9
SE2
SE3
SE2
G5
S4
SE3
G6
SE5
G8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI7 mi22 minSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds74°F69°F85%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmS3S4S4SW7SW5SW7SW7S7E8E7SE4SW11
G19
SW8
G19
SW13
G18
SW7SW8SW5S5SW5SW6CalmSW5
1 day agoN3CalmSE3CalmSE4SE7SE44CalmSE6S7SW65W7NW6E7SE4S4CalmCalmCalmSE3S3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4E9SE7SE75E8SE9E5E8E4SE5S3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.