Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 2:10 PM   Moonset 3:56 AM

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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 1113 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - West wind 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon, then becoming east early in the evening. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Light winds. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 181510 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1110 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers move in late this morning and afternoon.

- More widespread rain expected overnight.

- Rain and snow showers possible Friday night into Saturday.

- Quiet weather through the weekend before precip chances return Tuesday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

|12z surface/composite analysis shows a 1009mb over northeast Ontario...surface reflection of a short wave trough lifting northeast away from the upper Lakes...southeast of an occluding low over southeast Manitoba. Associated cold/occluded front arcs east then south across western Upper/Wisconsin. Upper level low spinning across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba with a 110kt jet streak to its southeast...with short wave ridging/height rises into Wisconsin/ Michigan. Low clouds across much of the state at mid morning with some breaks across central Upper into northwest Lower. Area of rain extends from Iowa/northern Missouri northeast into parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...within an area of warm advection and strong frontogenesis. Good deal of low clouds across eastern Upper/lower Michigan at mid morning though some breaks in the clouds in spots. Mid/high clouds across western Upper/Wisconsin. Some drizzle earlier as well across northern Lower though that has let up. 12z APX sounding saturated below about 840mb and dries out above.

Afternoon should be generally on the cloudy side as mid level radar returns spread in from the west. Some rain chances this afternoon especially south of M-32 with better probabilities for rain across the forecast area tonight. Afternoon highs mostly in the 50s...cooler near the big lakes where onshore flow occurs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Pattern Synopsis:

Weakening low pressure currently centered over the northern Great Lakes will continue to spin northeast of the region today as much stronger troughing progresses across the Upper Midwest and overhead by tonight. The associated surface cyclone will slide east across Ontario today as an attendant cold front works across northern Michigan this evening into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Light rain will continue across portions of far northern lower near the Straits and the eastern U.P. over the next few hours before moving out around sunrise. A lull in rain chances is in store through the rest of the morning before additional scattered showers look to move in from southwest to northeast by early afternoon.
Rainfall is anticipated to be light with this round of showers with accumulations likely being limited to a few hundredths of an inch for most locations. Otherwise, close to average temperatures are expected this afternoon as highs warm into the low to mid 50s for most areas. Places near Saginaw Bay look to get into the upper 50s today.

Another break in rain chances is expected during the late afternoon/early evening hours ahead of more widespread rain moving in this evening and tonight. Highest confidence in steadiest rainfall lies across the southeastern half of the CWA where totals of 0.25" to 0.50" are expected for most areas. Lesser amounts are expected with northwest extent away from Saginaw Bay.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel large scale troughing currently over Central Canada with upstream ridging over the Northwest territories and a second trough over the northern Pacific forms an Omega blocking pattern for the entirety of the long term period. This pattern supports a cooler air mass and an overall quiet weather pattern for the Great Lakes region besides occasional chances of precip from lingering moisture and embedded height disturbances.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Rain and snow showers remain possible Friday night into Saturday.
Weather remains quiet for the majority of the long term period until precipitation chances return next Tuesday: Current embedded weakening troughing with attached surface low pressure will continue to progress northeast and make its way to the Maine coastline at the start of the long term period. Lingering low level moisture will continue scattered showers as embedded height disturbances progress across the state Friday night into Saturday. Little to no measurable precipitation is expected but with cooling overnight temperatures near freezing level, snowfall will mix into showers for parts of northern lower and eastern upper. A general dusting of snowfall accumulations remain possible for interior areas by Saturday morning.

Troughing attached to the aformentioned longwave over central Canada progresses southward returning precipitation the to the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday timeframe. Too far out to message details, but will be motoring this feature with future model runs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGs are expected to stay in place across much of northern lower through this morning while IFR/LIFR CIGs hold on across the eastern U.P. That said, flight conditions should improve to VFR across all TAF sites this afternoon into this evening. Light scattered showers will move back into the area late this morning/early this afternoon before more widespread rain arrives this evening and tonight. Degraded flight conditions to IFR/LIFR CIGs and MVFR/IFR VSBYs are expected again with the arrival of this precip. West winds around 10 kts will gust to 15-20 kts at times into this afternoon before weakening this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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