Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alpena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday April 19, 2018 5:43 AM EDT (09:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 11:39PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 348 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Partly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201804191600;;173989 FZUS53 KAPX 190748 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 348 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-191600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpena, MI
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location: 45.07, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190646
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
246 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 247 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Slowly turning the corner toward spring...

low pressure is crossing va. Associated precip never got this far
north, and is now peeling out to s. High pressure extends from
the central and northern plains on up to hudson bay, and will
build into the western lakes by late tonight. Northerly winds
ahead of the high will be gusty today, helping bring drier air to
the region (with neutral temperature advection). Cloud temp trends
are the main concerns.

Not too much in the way of cloud cover out there now; some cirrus
near south of m-32, and some patchy high-based stratocu in NE lower
mi. Our low-level airmass is moist enough (dew points in the 20s in
northern lower) to allow for a brief flare-up of CU stratocu after
sunrise. However, deeply dry air is moving in from the north (pwats
near 0.15), and we will mix that moisture cloud deck out in short
order (by midday or early afternoon). Mostly sunny skies by 2 pm,
lasting thru the rest of the day. Mostly clear skies will then
persist tonight.

Pressure gradient will slowly relax tonight, allowing some areas to
decouple overnight. Have tweaked min temps down a bit in response.

Think the airmass is too dry for much in the way of fog.

Max temps upper 30s to around 40f. Min temps around 20f to the mid
20s.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 247 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Dry weather...

high impact weather potential... River flooding may be an issue in
the coming days from the snow melt.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure at the sfc slowly moves
into the upper great lakes with the 500 mb ridge to the west. Fairly
dry air at 850 mb and in the 700-500 mb layer will clear out most of
the sky for both days. Although there could be some good cu
development as suggested by the gfs, and less by the sref. So mostly
sunny with temperatures getting into the upper 40s Friday and the
mid to upper 50s Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns... With the snow piled up and the sfc
temperatures beginning to warm and melt the snow, the concern is
that some of the area rivers could be an issue. Based on the
hydrographs from the RFC it looks like one river could have issues
over the weekend and into early next week. The rest of the rivers
remain below flood stage.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 247 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Precipitation free weather (well mostly) and moderating
temperatures...

extended (Sunday through Wednesday)... The sfc high and 500 mb ridge
stay over the forecast area, and the upper great lakes in general
through Monday night. So dry weather and moderating temperatures
back to normal highs by Monday are likely. Temperatures will make a
run at 70 on Tuesday as well. There could be some rain showers as
the models bring a cold front into the forecast area Tuesday night.

The temperatures and possible rain Tuesday night could cause issues
on the area rivers, although only one river is showing possible
issues at this point. Will continue to monitor the situation.

Temperatures cool overnight, changing the rain to a mix, or all snow
in the up. The system begins to move out of the region by Wednesday
morning so will have decreasing chances for precipitation by
Wednesday afternoon.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Wed apr 18 2018
low pressure will slide SE into the ohio valley overnight into
Thursday. Associated area of precip to south will continue to move
away from northern michigan. Overall conditions will remainVFR
thru the forecast period. North winds around 10 kts overnight
will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 247 am edt Thu apr 19 2018
gusty northerly winds today will produce advisory conditions
today, ahead of high pressure in the plains. Winds waves will
diminish tonight, as the high moves to the western great lakes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for lhz345-346.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lhz347>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Mr
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 1 mi34 min N 9.9 G 13 32°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 1 mi44 min NNE 8.9 G 12 31°F 1014.9 hPa (+1.0)21°F
TBIM4 13 mi54 min N 11 G 20 33°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI7 mi50 minNNW 1110.00 miFair31°F21°F67%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW8NW6NW5NW8N11N9NW7N12N11N12N12N8N8N7N10NE5W3NW7W4NW7N10N13N11
1 day agoW10
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W6NW8W6W6W7W4W7NW6W5NW5
2 days agoNE9NE7N5N7N9N13N10N8NW7NW10NW11NW10W6
G17
W5W7
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W8W10W8W7
G15
W9W8W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.