Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alpena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:05PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 5:58 AM EST (10:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 250 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Snow showers likely early in the morning. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201711221600;;782100 FZUS53 KAPX 220750 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 250 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-221600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpena, MI
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location: 45.07, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220731
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
231 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 231 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Diminishing lake effect snow showers today...

high impact weather potential... Minor additional accumulations of
lake effect snow today.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Nw flow lake effect snow showers
continue to impact much of our CWA early this morning as low level
caa continues in the wake of the departing cold front. Lake
aggregate troughing is lending some enhanced low level convergence
to ongoing lake precip production... As is the last vestiges of upper
level troughing as the axis of this feature slides east of michigan.

Large area of strong high pressure remains parked over the plains
states... With some low level ridging trying to poke into michigan
ahead of this feature.

As we head into today... Low level winds will gradually back to a
more westerly component by midday early afternoon as the surface
ridge axis builds into the great lakes region. This will redirect
our ongoing lake snow bands northward into far northern lower
michigan along and north of m-32. Overall coverage and intensity of
the snow showers will gradually wane as subsidence and drier low
level air begin to build into the region via the approaching
upstream ridge axis. Locations targeted by NW flow will see an
additional inch or two of lake snow thru the morning hours... With
westerly flow areas receiving well under an inch of additional snow
accumulation this afternoon.

Low level winds will then shift to the SW this evening on the back
side of the ridge axis and ahead of our next fast-moving low
pressure system scheduled to slide thru michigan late tonight into
Thursday. This system will steadily weaken as is pushes eastward
thru the great lakes... And with little in the way of synoptic
moisture to work with... Precip chances will be small from this
system. Remaining lake effect precip from today will end this
evening... But will experience a minor revival late tonight as that
weakening moisture-starved low pressure system reaches michigan. By
this time... Low level SW flow combined with weak lift moisture from
the system will produce some scattered snow showers for the straits
area and portions of NW lower michigan. Any snow accumulations will
be very minor (well under an inch).

High temps today will only warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Low temps tonight will cool back into the low to mid 20s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 231 am est Wed nov 22 2017

A few light snow showers possible thanksgiving day...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: by late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, weak shortwave energy is expected to be meandering overhead
through longwave troughing anchored across the eastern half of the
conus. A weak cold front will be situated over southern ontario,
tied to low pressure over hudson bay. As a result, a few light snow
showers may dot the map early on thanksgiving day; otherwise, warm
air advection ramps up in earnest Thursday night through Friday
ahead of a potent clipper system set to track across southern canada
late this weekend into the upcoming weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops Thursday morning and
again through the day Friday.

Latest trends over the past 24 hours yield increased confidence in a
few snow showers roaming parts of northern michigan (primarily north
of m-72) early Thursday morning in conjunction with the
aforementioned mid level perturbation moving eastward across the
forecast area and well out ahead of the cold front situated over
southern ontario. Limited deep layer moisture should limit the
overall coverage and intensity of any snow showers, and at this
point have continued to exclude the overly moist NAM (though that
thought warrants keeping an eye on merely due to busy holiday
travel).

Warm air advection then ramps up Thursday night into Friday as a
deepening area of low pressure tracks across southern canada. Could
be a window late Thursday night into early Friday for a wintry mix
across far northern locales as isentropically driven precip blossoms
to our north, but by far, better chances for more widespread
precipitation arrive later Friday afternoon into Friday
evening... Likely to fall in the form of rain.

High temps in the 30s on Thursday warm to above normal under warm
air advection for Friday... Ranging from hte low 40s across the far
north to the upper 40s near the m-55 corridor.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 231 am est Wed nov 22 2017
high impact weather potential: accumulating lake effect snow chances
increase Saturday through early Sunday.

Much cooler air is expected to wrap into northern michigan behind
Friday night's departing system. However, guidance is much less
bullish with the respect to the degree of cold and attendant lake
effect snow chances. Still believe there is a window, albeit brief,
Saturday morning into Saturday night for a period of accumulating
lake effect snow before over-lake instability diminishes as low
level temps begin to warm and high pressure noses in from the south
aiding to scour out any lingering moisture.

Tranquil weather is then anticipated Sunday through the start of
next week with precip chances gradually increasing once again toward
the middle of next week as another system spins up across the
central northern plains.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1144 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
MVFR at times overnight in lake effect clouds and snow showers.

Cooler air continues to enter the region. Lake effect clouds and
snow showers will be prevalent overnight, but will dwindle on
Wednesday.VFR conditions will be most common, but MVFR conditions
will be seen at times overnight, mainly at pln tvc mbl.

Nw winds will continue to slowly weaken overnight, then back west
and southwest into Wed evening.

Marine
Issued at 231 am est Wed nov 22 2017
winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria during the
morning hours... But will diminish in the afternoon as high pressure
begins to build into the region. Conditions may again strengthen to
sca criteria tonight ahead of our next low pressure system. Lake
effect snow showers will gradually diminish today with building high
pressure and drier low level air. Small chances of snow showers will
develop late tonight into Thursday as that weak system moves thru
the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for lsz321-322.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 1 mi41 min N 5.1 G 8.9 26°F 1021.2 hPa19°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 1 mi29 min NW 5.1 G 7 27°F
TBIM4 13 mi39 min NNW 7 G 13 28°F
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 37 mi69 min NNW 21 G 27 28°F 45°F5 ft1019.9 hPa (+3.0)

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI7 mi65 minNNW 77.00 miLight Snow26°F21°F84%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4SW5S4SE4S4SE5S7S5S7S6S9S6S7S9S7S7S8SW10S11S13S11S10S11S9
2 days agoNW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.