Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Egg Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 3:35 PM CDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:42AMMoonset 5:52PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 322 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gale force gusts to around 35 kts veering W 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Mostly clear.
Thursday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
Thursday night..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Clear.
Friday..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
LMZ521 Expires:201710190430;;056518 FZUS53 KGRB 182022 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-190430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egg Harbor, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 181950
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
250 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 249 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue
in the short term with low amplitude upper flow across the
northern conus.

A cold front moved into western wisconsin during the day but there
were only some middle and high clouds associated with it. Expect
the clouds to clear out relatively early tonight and winds will
weaken but should not die off completely. There should be just
enough wind to keep fog from becoming a problem and prevent
temperatures from tanking. Expect above normal lows tonight and
plenty of sunshine on Thursday, so another much warmer than normal
day is in store. Most locations will top out in the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 249 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
quiet and seasonably warm during the start of the long term
forecast period, and then focus turns to precipitation chances
through the weekend and early next week along with cooling
temperatures.

Mid upper ridge continues to dominate the flow over wisconsin
through Friday. With 850mb temps around 16c daytime highs are
expected to be about 20 degrees above normal. Followed the trend
from previous shifts and boosted high temps a few degrees from
guidance.

For Saturday Sunday, models still show timing differences on
precipitation arrival ahead of a surface cold front. GFS remains
the quickest with some WAA showers as early as Saturday morning.

And now, the latest 12z run of the canadian has slowed the system
down quite a bit, with the area essentially staying dry until
Sunday morning, then developing a closed-off upper low just south
of wisconsin through early next week. Will rule this solution as
an outlier for now, and focused more on the differences between
the nam GFS ecmwf. Kept a blended solution which contains low
precip chances in south- central wisconsin Saturday morning, then
slowly expanding east through the day. Right now, the most likely
timing for pcpn is Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with
any lingering showers moving east by midday. Models show some cape
(up to 800 j kg) and bulk shear (25-30 kts) Saturday afternoon
and evening. If activity does arrive by Saturday afternoon some
thunderstorms are possible, but with the best dynamics still
further west no severe weather is anticipated.

Despite differences, with increased mid-level moisture cloud
cover and 850mb temps falling to around 11c, expect high
temperatures Saturday to be a few degrees cooler than Friday.

Flow shifts northwest later Sunday through the rest of the
forecast period. There are a couple opportunities for rain showers
as shortwave energy passes through the flow, but with timing and
location difference there's nothing significant to grab hold of at
this point. Temps will also be cooling off, with highs about 5 to
10 degrees above normal Sun Mon and AOB normal tues wed.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1249 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
vfr conditions will continue through Thursday as a passing cold
front and mid level short wave bring only some high and mid level
clouds to the area. Gusty southerly surface flow will weaken with
loss of daytime heating, but llws then becomes an issue for a few
hours or so prior to 06z. Little, if any, fog should develop since
there should still be some wind overnight.

Marine
Issued at 249 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
will stick with the sc.Y rather than upgrade to a gl.W. Gale
force gusts are possible, but it does not look as though they
will be widespread or persistent enough to warrant a gale
warning.

Persistent strong southwest winds are likely to result in high
waves on lake michigan Friday into Sunday morning.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Mg
long term... ... Klb
aviation... ... .Mg
marine... ... ... Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi48 min S 16 G 27 66°F 1010.2 hPa47°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 19 mi56 min SSE 12 G 21 62°F 1010.8 hPa
45014 35 mi36 min SSW 18 G 23 64°F 58°F1010.6 hPa (-3.1)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 45 mi48 min S 19 G 23 58°F 1012 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 47 mi34 min S 24 60°F 1010.5 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 47 mi46 min S 27 G 35 61°F 59°F9 ft1010.9 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI19 mi40 minS 16 G 2310.00 miFair65°F51°F61%1013.2 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi40 minSW 17 G 2210.00 miFair69°F48°F49%1012 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4S6S7S6S6S5S8S9S8SW11SW9SW8S8S9S7S7S10S10S13
G18
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1 day agoSW14
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SW10S6S5S8S9S9S9S9SW12SW11SW12SW16
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G18
W11----SW8SW5
2 days agoNW10NW8NW6W4W4NW7NW5NW4W4SW3SW3SW4SW4SW5W6W5W4SW4W6W8W11--SW12SW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.