Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Egg Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:14PM Monday December 11, 2017 3:14 AM CST (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:26AMMoonset 2:02PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 923 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2017
.gale watch in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kts backing sw 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
Monday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw 10 to 20 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..NW wind to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 40 kts, especially near death's door. Waves building to 4 to 6 ft. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy.
Tuesday..NW wind to 30 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ521 Expires:201712111115;;709262 FZUS53 KGRB 110323 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 923 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-541-111115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egg Harbor, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 110251
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
851 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 845 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
the latest runs of the models that would have ingested the 00z
raobs suggest snow will be a little slower to overspread the area
than initially expected. That seems reasonable give that surface
obs and radar data suggest snow is first crossing into northwest
minnesota. The change does not appear major--perhaps just an hour
or two delay in onset.

It looks like an initial band of snow in an area of strong
isentropic lift will quickly sweep east across the area very late
tonight and early Monday. Snow behind that band will probably be
more in the form of scattered custers of snow showers driven by
forcing from the mid-level shortwave and enhanced by the fact the
lift will be acting on an air mass with steep mid-level lapse
rates.

Still anticipate a widespread 1-3 inch snowfall across the area.

A few locations could get higher totals, especially given the
possible convective nature of the snow. But discerning where that
would occur will be difficult until the evolution of the snowbands
becomes more apparent on radar. Light precipitation in the wake of
the main snow band and outside of any areas of convection could
fall as freezing drizzle as mid-level moisture gets stripped out
by the incoming dry slot.

The main change to the forecast this evening will be to slow the
arrival of the snow a bit. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes
appear necessary. Updated product suite including sps will be out
asap.

Short term Tonight and Monday
issued at 310 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
precipitation chances and amounts associated with an approaching
clipper system are the main concerns in the short term.

Lake effect snow showers and flurries should come to an end this
evening as winds back and direction becomes unfavorable for lake
effect in the forecast area.

A surface low pressure system and mid level trough in the
canadian plains will approach wisconsin tonight and move through
the state during the day on Monday. Warm advection ahead of the
low will bring snow into the area late tonight and during the day
on Monday, with the majority of the snow falling between midnight
and noon. Looks like most locations will pick up between 1 and 3
inches of snow from this system. Green bay and the fox valley are
likely to see the heaviest snowfall as many head to work or
school. Will forgo an advisory for now, but the evening shift may
want to issue pending analysis of data from 00z model runs. Snow
should wind down Monday afternoon, but lake effect is expected to
continue in the lake superior snowbelt.

Lows tonight will range from around 10 degrees to near 20. Highs
on Monday should be in the lower 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
issued at 310 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
high amplitude flow with a strong ridge over the western conus
and deep cold trough over the eastern states will keep the forecast
area in the cold northwest flow regime this week, resulting in a
series of clipper type systems passing over. Track and timing of
these clippers will be the primary challenge.

An early week clipper system will be departing Monday night,
leaving the area in a cold air advection pattern, and increasing lake
effect snow potential across the far north. Northwest trajectory
indicates lake effect snow showers will persist into much of
Tuesday before a ridge of high pressure approaches from the west
toward Tuesday night.

What clearing occurs Tuesday night with surface ridge may be
brief as another clipper system drops in toward mid week. The gfs
prog is looking similar to the early week system, but the ECMWF is
a bit further southwest. More cold air pours into the area behind
this system for the lake effect snows to start up again across
the far north.

Upper pattern begins to change late in the week and into the
weekend toward a more zonal flow with moderating temperatures.

Another northern stream system or clipper type system is progged
to drop into the area next weekend. The warmer boundary layer temps
suggests the potential of a mix variety.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 845 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
another fast moving storm system dropping southeast from canada
will sweep through the area late tonight and Monday. Snow from
the incoming storm system should begin to spread across the area
around 09-10z, reaching the lakeshore by 13-14z. Anticipate ifr
conditions due to reduced visibilities as the snow moves through.

Low ceilings in the wake of the main snow band will maintain ifr
or low-endVFR conditions.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Mg
long term... ... Tdh
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 19 mi35 min W 1.9 G 5.1 19°F 1016.3 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi45 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 21°F 1016 hPa8°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 45 mi45 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 18°F 1015.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 47 mi35 min N 2.9 G 5.1 15°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI19 mi19 minESE 310.00 miA Few Clouds17°F10°F74%1018.4 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi19 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy14°F8°F77%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W4SW4SW5W8W6NW9NW8NW8NW13NW11
G19
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NW9N10NW14NW10N10N8NW6N4CalmE3E3
1 day agoNE7N14
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NW12NW13--NW10NW7NW9NW7NW6W8W7W8W7W9SW6
2 days agoW11W15--W12W14
G23
W12W12W10
G19
W13W8W8W9SW7SW9SW5S5S7S5E3--CalmCalmN6N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.