Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marinette, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:51PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 1:23 PM CDT (18:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:41AMMoonset 6:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 115 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 25 2017
This afternoon..SE wind 10 to 15 kts with some gusts to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 feet on the bay... And 2 to 4 ft on the lake. Mostly to partly Sunny.
Tonight..E wind around 10 kts in the evening...becoming se at 10 to 15 kts overnight. Waves 2 ft or less on the bay...and 1 to 3 ft on the lake. A chance of showers...especially after midnight.
Wednesday..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft on the bay...and 2 to 4 ft on the lake. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog.
Wednesday night..S wind 10 to 15 kts backing E and diminishing to 5 to 10 kts by midnight...then N late. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
LMZ521 Expires:201704252215;;253112 FZUS53 KGRB 251815 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 115 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-541>543-252215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marinette, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 251455
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
955 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 358 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017
still warm and mainly dry today, then a cooler and wetter weather
pattern will settle across the area for the rest of the week and
the upcoming weekend.

The large scale flow across north america will remain split during
the period. The southern branch of the split will be much stronger
and dominate most of the conus. A large scale trough will remain over
the southern plains, with ridging near the coasts. The position
of the forecast area downstream from the mean trough position will
result in unsettled weather, and much above normal precipitation
for the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal today
(except near the bay and lake), then cooler air will gradually
spread east. That will eventually drop temperatures to below
seasonal normals on days with significant precipitation, and to
near normal otherwise.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Wednesday
issued at 358 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017
the overall forecast scenario the next couple days is rather
simple. Shortwaves ejecting out of the strengthening southern
stream upper trough over the plains will bring several rounds of
precipitation to the area. The details of those (in terms of exact
timing and amounts) are much more elusive. The lead shortwave
that crossed the area overnight generated considerable radar
returns, but only managed to produce a couple sprinkles on surface
obs due to dry air at low-levels. The 00z kgrb RAOB was very dry
between 500 mb and 850 mb. Kdvn and kilx raobs were similar,
though not as drastic. So accepted the overall trend of the models
of showing minimal precipitation chances this morning. The dry
air may well hold off precipitation this afternoon as well,
especially over east-central wisconsin. Satellite imagery suggests
some breaks in the clouds are likely as well. As a result, edged
temps upward everywhere except near the lake and bay, where
southeast winds will hold readings back.

A continued influx of moisture will eventually result in clusters
of showers spreading across the area tonight, though timing is
still uncertain. Followed the SWODY1 in keeping a mention of
thunder for much of the area.

A fairly strong frontal boundary will be across the area
Wednesday, as a well defined frontal wave lifts from central to
northeast wisconsin. The east will still be in the warm sector, so
edged temps up there (again, except near the lake and bay). Also
maintained a greater chance of thunder in the east. That fit well
with the SWODY2 outlook from spc. Training of convection could
result in a heavy rain risk across the area, and will mention that
in the hwo.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
issued at 358 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017
upper ridges over the eastern pacific and western atlantic will
keep a persistent trough from the rockies to the appalachians. A
series of systems are forecast to move through this trough and
bring several opportunities for precipitation to northeast wi
during the extended forecast. Depending on the synoptic set-up,
some of this precipitation could be heavy at times which would
aggravate already swollen rivers over northeast wi. Temperatures
will go below normal due to the clouds/precipitation, while
precipitation amounts to be above to well-above normal into early
next week.

The slow-moving cold front will edge across wi Wednesday night,
primarily due to an area of low pressure riding north along the
frontal boundary. Models differ a bit with exactly where this low
pressure will be during the night with the GFS almost 12 hours
faster than the nam, with the ECMWF and cmc somewhere in between.

This is only a minor detail with plenty of gulf moisture
available, a mid-level shortwave trough becoming slightly
negatively-tilted over the upper midwest and the right entrance
region of the upper jet adding lift. All of this adds up to a wet
night across the forecast area with rain being the main
precipitation type. However, as surface temperatures approach the
freezing mark over parts of north-central wi later at night, the
rain could mix with or change to freezing rain. This will need to
be watched closely over the next 36 hours. Headed into Thursday,
the cold front exits wi to the east and the mid-level trough lifts
northeast through the western great lakes region. Expect mainly
rain (still a brief mix possible early north-central) to continue
through at least Thursday morning with a gradual decrease in
precipitation chances Thursday afternoon, especially over central/
east-central wi where a dry slot may rotate into southern wi. Much
cooler air mass to set-up over wi by Thursday with max
temperatures falling to below normal levels.

Northeast wi appears to reside between systems for Thursday night
and at least most, if not all of Friday depending on which model
is correct. Both the GFS and cmc agree in sending light rain into
central/east-central wi along a warm front lifting northward
toward wi. Meanwhile, the ECMWF hold this frontal boundary well to
our south on Friday with no precipitation close to northeast wi.

Have placed more faith in the gfs/cmc solutions based on the fact
that upper ridging to the east-southeast would prevent this front
from dropping too far south and additional mid-level energy moving
through the central CONUS large-scale trough would head in our
direction. Thus, will have precipitation chances return Friday
afternoon, especially across central/east-central wi. Temperatures
will make a modest recovery on Friday with readings only slightly
below normal.

The warm front is not expected to lift any farther north as a
surface wave develops along the front and any convection south of
the front will tend to pull the front farther south with time
Friday night. This scenario would keep precipitation chances in
the forecast across the southern half of wi, while northern
sections would be dry. Cannot rule out a little snow potentially
mixing with the rain as temperatures fall into the 30s. The latest
model output from 00z for Saturday now indicate that most of
Saturday could be dry as the next system organizes over the
southern plains. May leave a small pop for central/east-central wi
Saturday afternoon as gulf moisture begins to surge north once
again. Northeast winds will continue to keep temperatures on the
cool side of normal with readings only in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

This next system is progged to lift northeast into the central
plains/mid-ms valley Saturday night and reach the midwest/southern
great lakes region on Sunday. A surface low will move northeast
and pull the old frontal boundary back to the north as a warm
front. A trailing strong mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
reach the upper ms valley south to the central plains by 00z
Monday. Much like the first system, there are model differences
with the track of the surface low and whether eastern wi could get
into the warm sector for possible thunderstorms. Majority of the
models favor the low passing to our east which would bring a cold
rain to much of northeast wi Saturday night and Sunday. We will
have to watch northern wi Saturday night/Sunday morning for a
rain/snow or all snow situation with temperatures hovering around
32 degrees.

Sunday night could be a tricky forecast as the mid-level trough
lifts into the western great lakes and the atmospheric column
cools as the main deformation zone lifts northeast into wi.

Depending on how fast surface temperatures fall, we could get at
least light snow accumulations over parts of the forecast area.

The cyclonic flow around the departed trough could linger light
precipitation into Monday, although amounts would be lighter.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 954 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017
a series of surface low pressure systems will track northward
along a frontal boundary sagging into the state form the west.

Since the air mass is initially dry, the first wave produced
sprinkles along withVFR clouds earlier today. A second and
stronger low pressure system will track north into the state late
today into tonight. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR levels
overnight into Wednesday morning behind the front, but may keep at
vfr levels a bit longer over east central wisconsin east of the
front. In addition, low level shear conditions developing tonight
as winds at 1500 feet agl increase to 40 knots.

Tdh.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Tdh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 1 mi53 min SE 13 G 15 51°F 1004.2 hPa47°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 14 mi43 min SSE 8 G 13 60°F 1005.1 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 35 mi43 min SE 12 G 17 48°F 1005.8 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 43 mi53 min S 8 G 8.9 46°F 1005.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee, Menominee-Marinette Twin County Airport, MI3 mi27 minSSE 1110.00 miFair61°F48°F65%1007 hPa
Sturgeon Bay, WI21 mi27 minSSE 19 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy59°F50°F72%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8--S13
G18
SE14SE19
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SE13SE7SE7E7SE8E4CalmNE6E5E7SE9S9SE5SE10SE13S13SE11SE10SE12
1 day agoNE16NE18NE17NE16NE15NE12E11E10NE11NE10NE8NE10NE8E8E8NE4NE4NE4E65SE34SE9NE10
2 days agoCalmSW5SW7SW7S7S8S7SW6S6S5SW3SW6SW7S4SW4S3SW5SW3S4N5NE16NE21NE19NE18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.