Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:53PM Friday March 22, 2019 10:02 AM EDT (14:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 323 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Slight chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201903221530;;735257 FZUS53 KAPX 220723 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 323 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-221530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan city, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221016
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
616 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 311 am edt Fri mar 22 2019
high impact weather: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level troughing was seen over the great lakes and rockies
early this morning, with mid level ridging stretched through the
plains states. One shortwave trough and associated cold front was
dropping south through NRN michigan, with deepening moisture and
growing low level instability, as h8 temps were falling into -8c to -
10c for marginal delta t's to help activate to lakes. In response,
clouds were expanding thickening, but reflectivities were rather
weak with just some spits of light rain snow. Much drier air and
clearing skies were seen on the forward flank of the mid level
ridging, associated with advancing sfc high pressure.

Most of the weather will occur through daybreak, with continued
deepening moisture and CAA leading to scattered light rain snow.

Forcing is rather weak, and this will be a pretty quick shot at some
light precipitation, before the air mass dries very efficiently by
this afternoon in gusty northerly winds. Skies will open up decently
later today, especially in areas outside of the northerly lake
effect regimes. Falling temperatures will rebound very little, with
readings holding near steady in the upper 20s to lower half of the
30s. There will be some pretty clear skies tonight, but still a
touch of wind to keep temperatures from falling too far. Teens will
be common across the region.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 311 am edt Fri mar 22 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: chances of lingering precip
early Friday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A large area of high pressure centered
over the western great lakes and associated dry air will remain over
the forecast area through Sunday morning. A weak cold front
associated with a low pressure system near hudson bay will then
drape southward through northern michigan Sunday afternoon evening.

Aforementioned high pressure will produce mostly clear skies and
light winds over the forecast area throughout the day Saturday and
last into Sunday morning afternoon. The weak cold front sagging
southward into northern michigan Sunday will produce some rain
showers beginning over eastern upper Sunday morning... And possibly
even some freezing drizzle as mid-level moisture is rather lacking.

This precipitation will spread southward throughout the day Sunday
and begin changing over to snow during the evening hours... As
temperatures decrease and mid-level moisture increases as moisture
from the northern periphery of a weak low pressure system over the
ohio river valley begins to merge with said boundary.

Winds will be primarily westerly and light with a few higher gusts
during the afternoon hours Saturday as diurnal mixing occurs. High
temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday afternoon
and vary more widely Sunday... With eastern upper reaching into the
mid to upper 30s, while the southern portion of the forecast period
reaches into the low 50s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 311 am edt Fri mar 22 2019
high impact weather potential: none
an upper trough which settled over the eastern great lakes during
the weekend will exit east Tuesday, before weak 500mb ridging builds
into the ohio valley and great lakes. Mid lvl temps in this pattern
will warm from btwn -9c and -12c to begin the work week, to +4c by
Thursday, generating below normal high temps in the 30s through
Tuesday before warming to above normal readings in the 50s Thursday.

Precipitation will be limited across the northern great lakes
through next week as a large area of high pressure pushes across the
region through midweek. A system lifting into the northern plains
and great lakes Wednesday night, will generate a chance of mainly
rain over NRN michigan Thursday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 616 am edt Fri mar 22 2019
cold advection in very gusty northerly winds behind a departed cold
front, will continue to result in spotty light rain and snow showers
through daybreak or as late as mid morning. Much drier air will then
fill in throughout the course of the day, leading to more and more
looks at the sun. CIGS will primarily beVFR, but periodic MVFR
conditions are expected. Skies are then expected to clear tonight,
while wind speeds gradually come down.

Marine
Issued at 311 am edt Fri mar 22 2019
a passing cold front early this morning will result in a tight
pressure gradient leading to advisory and low end gale for northerly
winds into this evening. Higher pressure settles in later tonight
into Saturday, before the arrival of the next cold front and tighter
pressure gradient Saturday night into Sunday morning for a good
chance at new marine headlines.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz348-349.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342.

Gale warning until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Smd
long term... Tl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi82 min N 22 G 31 30°F 1016.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi44 min 28°F 33°F1015.3 hPa15°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi67 minN 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast31°F25°F80%1014.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi66 minN 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast30°F21°F72%1016.3 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi67 minNW 12 G 207.00 miOvercast30°F25°F84%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW5SW5SW4W3SW5SW8SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N9
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1 day agoS5S5SW3SW5W6SW5S3S5S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3S3S7S6SW6SW7SW6W10W6SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS4S6S3S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.