Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:13AMSunset 5:20PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:37 AM EST (08:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:14PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 304 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201901171615;;479463 FZUS53 KAPX 170804 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 304 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-171615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan city, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 170743
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
243 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Near term (tonight)
issued at 109 am est Thu jan 17 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal. Minor light snow
accumulations tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
high pressure was draped across the great lakes early this morning,
with a shortwave and weak low pressure working through the central
plains. Some light snows were associated with the plains low
pressure, while NRN michigan was seeing a few very light radar
returns flurries hugging the NW lower coast from leelanau northward,
and across far NRN chippewa county. This was driven by sufficient
overlake instability, remnant shallow moisture stuck underneath an
inversion around 3500 feet, and weakening westerly flow that was
gradually turning more SW with time.

Through daybreak, the low level flow will eventually get to more out
of the sw, and snows will move out of NW lower and chippewa county
of eastern upper michigan. They will rather be out over the lakes
and start to move into the straits and mackinac county. Mainly just
flurries are expected with no accumulation. The central plains
shortwave trough and low pressure will largely pass by to our south,
but an approaching shortwave from central canada will bring weak low
pressure and a cold front into NRN michigan from late this afternoon
through this evening. This wave will have little in the way of
synoptic snows, but deepening moisture in the mid levels will
enhance the lake snows and pull them into NW lower and chippewa
county of eastern upper michigan. This occurs as the low pressure
and cold front pass this evening, and 1000-850mb winds switch out of
the nw. During this time, inversion heights climb to near 5500 feet,
and really not seeing a good signal for MAX lift in the dgz (which
the uvv's aren't very strong anyway). Good CAA overnight leads to
greater overlake instability, but falling inversion heights and
drier air (especially across NRN lower) will lead to just some
additional light snow flurries.

Snowfall totals will maybe be up to a half inch in portions of
eastern upper today, with an inch or two in NW lower and chippewa
county tonight.

Highs today in WAA ahead of the approaching low pressure cold front
will be in the middle 20s most areas. Lows tonight behind the front
fall back into the teens (slightly colder in eastern upper).

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 242 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Beginning of the coldest air...

high impact weather potential... Lake effect snow depending on the
the wind direction and moisture.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Models are in agreement that the 1000-
850 mb layer winds go from NW to nnw by 00z sat. Moisture is at 30%
in the 850-700 mb layer, with the 850 mb temperatures around -23c. So
will expect that the instability will be able to support bands into
the evening, but will remain minor. As we go into the evening, the
storm system to the south, moves far enough north that light snow
will begin to move into the areas south of m-32 by 12z sat. The 1000-
850 mb winds turn to the ne. Lake michigan will have a decent band
running down it, which will enhance the snow amounts over the lake,
and possibly, in NW lower as bands move around onshore at times.

However, as the storm to the south, moves east, through the ohio
valley, the main enhancement will be short lived. Then we have to
pay attention to the NE flow les near harrisville and osc. This will
probably continue through Saturday night as the 850 mb temperatures
remain around -22c.

Primary forecast concerns... Primarily, this is mostly lake
effect enhancement, and the main concerns will be the possibility of
moderate snow amounts. They are possible, but if the models are
right, most of the bands should be out over water, or the air will
be so dry, that the amounts will be nil. Then on the east side of
the state, there looks to be an enhancement as the moisture is far
enough north (m-32-ish) that the lake huron side could see some
decent amounts. However, only the GFS is showing that. The nam,
ecmwf, and SREF have the moisture well to the south, like south of m-
55 or us-10.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 242 am est Thu jan 17 2019
high impact weather potential... Periodic lake effect snow showers
may, at times, impact portions of the forecast area through the next
7 days.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)... We start off with the coldest
high temperatures of the season with the single digit highs, that
are low enough, that some locations will struggle to get to zero.

However, the next system is moving into the region on Monday and the
temperatures are back in the double digits. The GFS is a little more
aggressive (timing-wise) with the moisture, and thus, the
precipitation is a little more aggressive than the ecmwf, but for
the most part models aren't all that dissimilar through Tuesday
morning. However, the GFS bombs out the sfc low through the thumb,
and the ECMWF is slower and less developed. Will have to watch this
in the coming days. If the GFS is right then we could get a good
storm. If the ECMWF is right, then it's maybe some advisory snow.

Wednesday, we are between systems, but the GFS almost has the next
one on top of us by 00z thu. The ECMWF shows some les, but for the
most part is drier and there is more of a break before the next
system. So far, the guidance has us near normal for highs by the end
of the extended which is mid to upper 20s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 109 am est Thu jan 17 2019
high pressure over great lakes will exit into new england today,
making way for weak low pressure, and another cold front to pass
through NRN michigan tonight. This will allow light southerly winds
to turn back out of the nw, while also pulling lake enhanced snow
showers from out over lake michigan, back into the NW lower airports
with periods of MVFR ifr vsbys.

The current MVFR low endVFR lake clouds will lift northward and
likely out of apn pln tonight, but will return across all airports
tomorrow, aided by increasing low level moisture ahead of the low
pressure.

Marine
Issued at 109 am est Thu jan 17 2019
high pressure over the great lakes will exit into new england today,
making way for weak low pressure, and another cold front to pass
through NRN michigan tonight. This will allow light southerly winds
to turn back out of the nw. Then, strong high pressure from central
canada Friday, will expand eastward into ontario and quebec into
Friday into the weekend, while a storm system develops in the srn
plains and works toward the ohio valley. This will veer winds out of
the ne. The pressure gradient over this time is not expected to
tighten up enough for any sort of advisory wind speeds.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi58 min SE 1 G 2.9 19°F 1026.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 13°F 33°F1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NW26
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SW7
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast14°F10°F85%1026.1 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi43 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast17°F9°F72%1026.7 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi42 minENE 410.00 miOvercast13°F7°F80%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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N3N6NW6N4N7N4N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW7SW8
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4S4S4S6S6S5SW5SW4S4SW3CalmSW4W6W4SW4SW3SW3SW3SW4S4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.