Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:39PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:03 AM EDT (12:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:42PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 357 Am Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
Today..Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201804241600;;416332 FZUS53 KAPX 240757 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 357 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-241600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan city, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 241054
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
654 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 303 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Some showers today in northern lower mi...

high impact weather potential: none.

A southern stream upper low is over the tn valley early this
morning, while a digging northern stream shortwave is near the
manitoba ontario border. These features will interact over the next
24 hours. Deeper moisture around the southern upper low will get
drawn northward ahead of the northern stream wave, at least until it
moves into northern mi very late tonight. At the surface, a col is
in place over northern mi thru midday, before high pressure starts
to fold across superior and produce N to NE winds. Precip trends are
the main concern.

Cirrus has already made a northward push into northern lower mi. 00z
apx RAOB still had an impressive amount of dry air below 450mb,
leftover from the last several days. Though the 1st showers are
starting to edge into far southern lower mi, it will take some work
to erode the pre-existing dry present in the mid- and low-levels in
northern mi. That said, current showers are taking the form of
deformation-forced bands around the outer edge of the upper low, and
this appears unlikely to change. This allows mid-level forcing to
become stationary for a period in early mid afternoon (before the
bands start to pull out to the east). And this allows forcing more
time to act locally and overcome dry low-level air.

Except initial showers to sneak into the saginaw bay region toward
mid-morning. Gradual nw-ward progress will occur thru 3-4 pm, when
the primary shower band backs up to about an mcbain-apn axis. A few
showers could still pop up NW of this over NW lower mi. By sunset,
primary shower band will have retreated back into NE lower mi, and
it will exit northern mi shortly after midnight.

Some models (like the nam) show an abundance of low level moisture
swinging in from the nne overnight. This feels a bit overaggressive,
and typical of the models after even a light QPF event. That said,
will add a mention of some drizzle very late tonight in parts of ne
lower mi, and will keep the overnight much cloudier east of i-75
than west.

Max temps mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest in NW lower mi (especially
south of tvc). Min temps tonight in the 30s.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 303 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Lingering showers diminish Wednesday; drier mild Thursday...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: southern branch closed upper level low continues
to spin across the lower mississippi valley early this morning with
a well-defined, northern stream wave (and attendant cold front)
dropping southeastward across manitoba, which is expected to cross
northern michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Brief mid-level
ridging returns across the region Wednesday night into Thursday
before a more potent system digs southeastward from
alberta saskatchewan... Likely impacting northern michigan during the
Thursday night - Friday time frame.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: lingering pops Wednesday.

A somewhat slower decrease in deep layer moisture is anticipated
across the forecast area on Wednesday than was progged 24 hours ago.

24 00z GFS continues to be by far the quickest with drying while
much of the remainder of the 00z suite of guidance continues
moisture and precipitation chances, at least east of i-75, into
Wednesday morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see western locales
Wednesday morning under plenty of sunshine while areas east of i-75
remain under clouds with a few scattered lingering showers before
precip diminishes entirely across the forecast area by late morning-
early afternoon. Tuesday night Wednesday's associated cold front is
expected to result in a return to below normal temperatures, at
least briefly, with Wednesday afternoon's highs topping out in the
40s for most.

Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures return Thursday as mid-level
ridging prevails aloft and surface high pressure drifts across the
midwest western great lakes. High temps climbing back into the 50s
for most with perhaps a few low 60 degree readings across sections
of northern lower.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 303 am edt Tue apr 24 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

A relatively sharp cold front will drop down from canada to kick off
the start of the extended period... With passage in the Thursday
night through Friday time frame. The precip will likely be all
liquid... But this front is looking like it may drag down enough cold
air that a few snowflakes shouldn't be ruled out... Particularly
should the precip line up with the diurnal cycle and occur at night.

Moisture may linger into Saturday, but a drying trend should
commence and continue right through the end of the end of the
forecast period. A temporary dip to cooler than normal readings can
be expected at the start of the period on Friday... But temperatures
will moderate through the second half of the weekend, back to
near-normal by Sunday Monday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 654 am edt Tue apr 24 2018
some showers today. Potential for much lower CIGS very late
tonight.

Low pressure will gradually intensify as it nears the mid-atlantic
states today. We will be on the far outer edge of this system,
with some showers gradually moving in from the se. Apn has the
best chance of getting wet for part of the afternoon evening. Apn
likely to go MVFR for a period.

Northerly breezes will pick up tonight, and that could bring much
lower cigs. Again, apn has the best shot of a borderline MVFR ifr
deck.

Marine
Issued at 303 am edt Tue apr 24 2018
winds will be light for the 1st half of the day, but as high
pressure starts to work in from the nw, N to NE winds will
increase this afternoon into tonight. Advisory-level winds waves
are expected in some tonight, mainly on lake mi (lake huron gets
in on the act toward morning on Wednesday).

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Wednesday for lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jz
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi84 min S 6 G 11 44°F 1019.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 36°F 1018.6 hPa26°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
NE2
E4
E2
NE4
G7
NE5
E2
E3
E2
E2
E5
NE2
SE3
E3
SE4
E6
E5
SE1
SE3
E4
SE4
NE4
E1
NE4
E2
1 day
ago
SE2
SE1
E2
E2
E1
--
SE3
E5
E4
E5
SE11
SE12
SE6
E3
E4
E2
E4
SE2
E2
SE3
E4
E4
SE2
NE1
2 days
ago
SW2
E2
E2
E2
NE3
NW6
G9
NW6
G9
W9
NW5
NW11
G15
NW7
G10
NW7
NW5
W7
S2
--
E2
--
SW1
S1
SW1
NW1
SE2
S1

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi9 minN 010.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1020 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi69 minE 310.00 miFair38°F30°F73%1020 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi69 minNE 410.00 miFair38°F29°F72%1019 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmNW6N5N6N4----------------------Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3N3N3N6N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3SW4W3SW4CalmS5SW3NW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.