Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:07PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 315 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201811140415;;256256 FZUS53 KAPX 132015 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 315 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-140415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan city, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 140002
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
702 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Accumulation lake effect snow continues...

high impact weather potential... Significant lake effect snow
accumulating several inches across the typical snowbelt
regions.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep upper level trough axis is overhead
this afternoon as it pivots its way eastward thru the great lakes
region. This feature continues to provide additional enhancement to
our ongoing lake effect snow event in the form of weak CAA and
another shot of synoptic moisture. Results have been the formation
of a dominant band across the heart of the northern lower michigan
snowbelt region with obvious ties to the upstream dominant band
plainly visible on kmqt base ref. Thanks to lake superior
preconditioning... This band has been quite impressive over the past
few hours... Laying down 1-2 inch per hour snowfall amounts across
mainly antrim county. Diurnal disruption as resulting in some
cellular components to the banded structure... But overall definition
of the dominant band has been maintained all the way from lake
superior into northern lower michigan.

As we head into this evening... Upper level trough axis will shift
east out of michigan as will the associated lobe of enhanced synoptic
moisture and lift. 1000-800 mb winds will remain from the W NW and
over-lake instability will remain more than sufficient to continue
lake snow production. However... With loss of synoptic moisture and
lift and the subsequent lowering of inversion heights... Expect
overall intensity of lake snow will diminish. We may see that
dominant banded structure maintain and possibly become better
defined once diurnal disruption ends with sunset. Will certainly
need to keep an eye on this for the potential of even higher snow
amounts. Will definitely maintain all headlines as we head into
tonight... And do expect a continued diminishing trend overnight as
high pressure begins to build into the region. Expect another 2 to 5
inches for the advisory areas thru tonight.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Lake effect ending then turning milder...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Lingering cyclonic flow and over lake instability will likely lead
to more snow showers in the morning across the snow belts of eastern
upper and northwest lower. Perhaps an inch or so of additional
accumulation. High pressure and associated drier air then move into
the region from the west Wednesday afternoon. This should put an end
to any lingering lake effect snow showers. As the high shifts off to
our east, milder air will stream into the region Thursday. Gusty
southerly winds will make it difficult to ascertain just how mild it
actually is but highs of well into the 30s to the lower 40s are
expected. An alberta clipper will move by to our north early Friday
and drag a cold front across the region during the day bringing more
cold air and chances for mainly snow showers.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Turning unseasonably cold again with more snow shower chances...

high impact weather potential... Accumulating lake effect snow
possible Friday night into Saturday.

The next shot of arctic air advects in Friday night into the
weekend. More lake effect snow showers are expected especially
Friday night into Saturday. Another surge of arctic air and perhaps
snow showers follows for Monday into Tuesday. It still looks likely
that milder air (maybe even some rain) will arrive during the middle
and later stages of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 702 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
tongue of very cold air has overspread northern michigan in the
last 12 hours or so, kicking up the lake effect snow machine. Some
heavier snow shower bands continue to impact pln tvc this evening
although snow showers have shown a diminishing trend in the last
couple of hours. But, snow showers will continue to impact those
terminal sites through the evening occasionally producing MVFR
vsbys.

Diminishing snow shower trend will continue tonight with snow
showers largely expected to end on Wednesday returning to solid
vfr.

Marine
Issued at 313 pm est Tue nov 13 2018
winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria in all nearshore
areas thru tonight before diminishing on Wednesday as high pressure
briefly builds into the region. W NW flow lake effect snow showers
will also persist thru tonight... But will begin to diminish late
tonight and Wednesday as subsidence and drier air bring this lake
effect snow event to a close.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for miz019-021-
022-027-028.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for miz008.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Ba
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi43 min NW 24 G 30 26°F 1028.1 hPa
WSLM4 49 mi23 min W 21 21°F 39°F1026 hPa (+1.0)6°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi35 min WNW 15 G 22 23°F 40°F1026.1 hPa-1°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi28 minWNW 42.50 miLight Snow24°F19°F83%1027.4 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi28 minWNW 20 G 283.00 miLight Snow and Breezy23°F10°F59%1028.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi28 minWNW 15 G 227.00 miOvercast22°F10°F61%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmNW6W5W8
G17
W7CalmW9
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G15
W6W9NW5
1 day agoS3CalmS5S4S4CalmS4CalmW5W3CalmCalmW3W3NW4W4NW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4Calm
2 days agoS4S4SW3SW4S4S4S5S6S5S3S6S4S7S5S6S6SW3S5S4S5S4S4S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.