Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:29PM Monday May 29, 2017 2:03 PM CDT (19:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 956 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W 15 to 25 kts late this morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Gusts to 25 kts early. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly Sunny.
Tuesday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201705292230;;400763 FZUS53 KGRB 291456 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 956 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ541>543-292230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrb 291804
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
104 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Tuesday
issued at 335 am cdt Mon may 29 2017
a cold front will slowly make its way through the western great
lakes today. The front will bring a cooler air mass to the region,
as daytime highs are limited to the upper 50s across north-central
wisconsin, with lower to middle 60s across the rest of the cwa
where a later arrival of the front will allow some higher
temperatures. The front will also bring a return of showers and
isolated thunderstorms as a shortwave spins around the upper low
tracking through ontario, taking advantage of modest instability
from daytime heating.

Showers will diminish during the overnight hours with the loss of
daytime heating. However rain chances will return on Tuesday as a
secondary cold front tracks through the region coincident with
yet another shortwave spinning around the same persistent low
located to the north. The secondary push of cold air will keep
highs on Tuesday down into the middle 50s across north-central
wisconsin, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
rest of the cwa.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 335 am cdt Mon may 29 2017
mean flow depicted by the models to consist of upper troughing
over southeast canada northeast conus, weak upper ridging over the
high plains and another upper trough over the pacific northwest.

This pattern would keep a northwest flow aloft into wi into next
weekend with timing issues of weak systems moving through the mean
flow. The main problem for next weekend will be a shortwave trough
that the models rotate southward into the great lakes with an area
of low pressure running along the southern periphery of this
trough. All in all, a dry period is expected for Wednesday early
Thursday and Friday with rain potential for Saturday Sunday.

Temperatures to warm close to normal into Friday, then cool for
the upcoming weekend.

The chance for showers will continue into Tuesday evening until
daytime heating wanes and what appears to be the last shortwave
trough that pivots southeast through the western great lakes.

Expect mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the night with
min temperatures in the lower 40s north (perhaps a couple upper
30s if clouds break), to the upper 40s east-central wi. A ridge of
high pressure is forecast to stretch from the mid-ms valley
northwest into south-central canada on Wednesday and send drier
air eastward into wi. This should bring mostly sunny skies and
warmer air into northeast wi, although a gusty west wind may
negate some of this warming. Nevertheless, MAX temperatures should
be able to reach the middle 60s north-central lakeshore, upper 60s
to around 70 degrees elsewhere (still a touch below normal).

The surface ridge axis shifts east Wednesday night and extend from
the tn valley northwest into the western great lakes region.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with diminishing winds will
bring another somewhat cool night with min temperatures in the
lower to middle 40s north, upper 40s to around 50 degrees south.

The surface ridge is progged to weaken over the western great
lakes on Thursday, mainly due to one of those weak systems
dropping southeast in the northwest flow aloft. Most of the models
focus the better precipitation chances across ia and il, however
cannot rule out the northern periphery of any shower activity from
reaching central east-central wi by Thursday afternoon. Will have
more clouds south than north, which would bring fairly uniform
temperatures to the forecast area. Look for MAX temperatures to be
in the upper 60s near lake mi, lower 70s north-central and lower
to middle 70s south.

It now appears that central east-central wi will reside on this
northern periphery of precipitation through Friday as a quasi-
stationary front to be located across southern sections of the
great lakes. This is one of those situations where a slight shift
north or south of 50 miles can spell the difference between partly
sunny skies no precipitation or mostly cloudy skies chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The latest trend is for enough dry air
on northeast winds will keep this front south and the bulk of
Thursday night Friday would be dry (but stay tuned!). Max
temperatures for Friday will range from the middle 60s lakeside,
around 70 degrees north and lower to middle 70s south.

Plenty of questions exist headed into next weekend, primarily
focused on the timing location of a surface low that is progged to
swing southeast ahead of a south-southeast moving shortwave
trough. The cmc has been optimistic with high pressure building
south into wi and keeping all precipitation to our west and south.

The ECMWF has pulled a 180 and gone from sweeping the surface low
associated cold front through wi on Saturday, to keeping this
system now similar to the cmc. Meanwhile, the GFS does bring the
low pres cold front through wi, but not until Sunday. Such a vast
array of possibilities, plus model run-to-run inconsistencies,
all point to a low confidence high uncertainty forecast for next
weekend. Have followed the consensus solution which keeps chance
pops in the forecast both days, but can see a need to lower pops
as we get closer to the weekend, especially if the GFS joins the
other models. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels with
maxes both Saturday and Sunday in the lower 60s near lake mi,
middle 60s north-central and upper 60s elsewhere.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 104 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
a cold front pushed east of wisconsin today and showers were
scattered across the area early this afternoon and ceilings were a
mix ofVFR and MVFR. Lightning was not indicating any thunder as
of 1730z, but surface based CAPE was in excess of 800 j kg in
north central and parts of northeast wisconsin so would expect
thunderstorms to develop. Unsure of the when where for storms so
have not included them in tafs. Thunderstorms may reduce ceilings
and or visibility to ifr.

Expect MVFR ceilings across central and north central wisconsin
late tonight through Tuesday morning.

Marine
Issued at 335 am cdt Mon may 29 2017
southwest winds early this morning will turn westerly and gust to
near 25 knots later this morning and this afternoon behind a cold
front. Winds will subside to 10 to 20 knots during the evening
hours and continue into the overnight hours.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Mg
marine... ... ... Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 10 mi83 min SSW 7 G 18 64°F 1003.7 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi83 min SSW 8 G 17 69°F 1003.7 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi45 min WSW 13 G 23 1004.1 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi50 min S 15 G 17 53°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi73 min S 16 G 18 46°F 41°F1 ft1005.3 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
SE12
G16
S12
G15
SE10
SE13
G17
S8
G12
SE7
N9
NW2
SE1
S2
SW4
SW9
SW6
SW8
G11
SW6
SW9
SW6
SW6
G9
SW9
SW14
G19
SW10
G13
SW13
G16
SW12
G16
SW16
G21
1 day
ago
S12
G17
SE13
G18
S9
G14
SE11
SE13
S9
S11
S10
SW5
SW4
S3
SW4
W5
W4
N6
W4
SW4
NW4
G9
E4
SW6
G10
S5
S7
G10
W3
SE7
2 days
ago
E3
SE9
SE11
SE9
SE7
SE9
SE7
S6
S5
S6
SE6
E2
SE5
SE6
SE6
S6
S4
S5
S6
SE6
S9
S9
S13
G17
S11
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgeon Bay, WI24 mi67 minSW 15 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F48°F65%0 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrE3SE7SE7S8SE7SE7S8S8S8SE6S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5SW7
1 day agoE9E13E12E10E10E11E6E5CalmNE4E8CalmCalmNW3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoNE8NE9E11
G19
NE16NE11NE11E11NE13E12
G17
NE9NE5NE5N5N8N7N6NE6N6N7N6N6N65NE9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.