Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:42PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 1:41 AM CST (07:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 5:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 905 Pm Cst Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of tonight..NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Snow showers, then a chance of snow showers after midnight.
Tuesday..NW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of light snow in the morning.
Tuesday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..W wind to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 35 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ541 Expires:201801161115;;512110 FZUS53 KGRB 160305 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 905 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-161115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 160258
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
858 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 846 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
no changes to the headlines at this time.

Still have concerns about what will happen along the lakeshore
tonight. The setup still looks pretty favorable for the
reorganization of a primary lake band, which will slide south down
the lakeshore during the night. Even if a single band does not
get organized, conditions will still favor enough snow showers to
add to accumulations. In addition to the factors discussed
earlier, the lake-effect over northern lake michigan is benefiting
from pre-moistening of the airmass upstream as it crosses lake
huron. In fact, kapx radar indicates two bands that originated
over lake huron extending all the way across the lower peninsula
and into northern lake michigan. The western extent of those was
beginning to affect the wisconsin shoreline. The visibilities at
k2p2 and k3d2 went down to 1 2sm as the western edge of one of the
bands went through. This may be the beginning of the more organized
lake band over lake michigan. Prior to a reconsolidation of the
lake-effect closer to the shoreline, some snow showers will
continue to work their way westward as far as kmnm, kocq, kgrb,
katw, kosh, so will allow the advisory for these areas to run
until midnight as planned. Will edge additional snowfall totals up
a little lakeside, and continue to closely monitor for the
possibility of further increases.

Updated product suite will be out asap.

Update
issued at 543 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
much of the ww.Y is scheduled to expire at 00z, and will allow
that portion to do so. Steadier snows will still be exiting
wood portage waushara, but it doesn't look like there will be
enough left to justify an extension.

Although some scattered snow showers and flurries will linger
across the area, this is transitioning to primarily a lake-
effect event. Winds over lake michigan in the 925-850 mb layer
have been backing ne, and will back a little further before
settling in for the rest of the night. Although some ice coverage
exists on the northern portion of the lake, it's probably not
enough to affect lake snow development much. The transition from a
more onshore flow to a more shore-parallel flow will favor the
current transverse bands scattered snow showers re-organizing into
a more substantial shore-parallel band. There is also some
indication that a double land-breeze circulation will form over
the lake, which would also favor this evolution. This may lead to
another period of heavier snows along the lakeshore, especially
from kewaunee southward. But the band is unlikely to become as
strong or as organized as the one last night, and will probably
shift down the lakeshore and not linger in any given area too
long. Will maintain the mention of another couple inches of snow
along the lakeshore based on this scenario.

Winds will also gradually become more favorable for lake-effect in
the lake superior snowbelt.

Updated product suite will be out asap.

Short term Tonight and Tuesday
issued at 230 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
the main forecast focus to be on lake effect potential from both
lakes michigan and superior as winds gradually back from east to
north tonight, then north to west on Tuesday.

The 19z msas surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure
situated over southeast wi. There were two troughs that extended
from this surface low. The first trough extended from the low
pressure west-northwest into west-central wi. The second trough
extended northward into north-central wi. The highest
concentration of snow was associated with each of these troughs
with visibilities typically in the 1-2sm range.

Winds are expected to gradually back from east-northeast this
evening to north-northeast by daybreak as the low pressure tracks
toward southern lake huron. Expect light snow to continue across
most of northeast wi this evening until the north-south surface
trough rotates southward into southern wi. The most concentrated
area of snow will remain near lake mi as lake effect brings snow
bands from a northeast to southwest direction. Additional
accumulations well inland should be relatively minor (one-half
inch or less), however areas closer to lake mi could see an
additional 1-3" with the higher amounts along the lake. Even
though light snow may still be falling over north-central central
wi into early evening, will allow the winter weather advisory for
these locations to expire at 6 pm cst. On a different note, as
winds shift to the north later tonight over lake superior, this
will bring lake effect snow showers into north-central wi with
possible accumulations of 1-2" over parts of vilas county.

The lake effect from lake mi will linger into Tuesday morning
before winds turn northwest and keep snow bands offshore. The lake
effect into north-central wi will also linger into Tuesday morning
before winds turn to the west and keep snow bands in upper mi. Any
additional accumulations will be relatively minor (around one-half
inch near lake mi one-half to one inch northwest corner of vilas
county). For the rest of northeast wi, clouds are expected to
linger for most of the day, before some breaks occur later in the
afternoon as drier air arrives from high pressure situated over
the central conus. MAX temperatures for Tuesday to range from 15
to 20 degrees north, 20-25 degrees south.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
issued at 230 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
dry conditions with moderating temperatures expected for the
remainder of the week. A couple of precipitation chances return
late in the week and more likely late next weekend.

A cold night is in storm for Tuesday night with sub zero overnight
low temperatures expected. Winds at this time appear too light to
place wind chill values in advisory levels. Moderating temperatures
are then expected for the remainder of the week as the western
upper ridge nudges into the mid section of the country. Increasing
pressure gradient with the warm air return Wednesday into
Wednesday night producing 15 to 25 mph winds. These winds may
combine with the new fluffy type of lake effect snows to produce
pockets of drifting snow over rural open areas along the
lakeshore counties.

Medium range progs are in good agreement with a northern stream
short wave passing over the northern great lakes region later
Thursday into Thursday night. Anticipate precip chances will be on
the increase across the north later this week if progs remain
consistent with this feature.

Upper heights continue to fall and turn more zonal Friday into
Saturday as the western upper trough develops. While another
piece of energy in the northern stream glances by to the north
around Saturday, attention turns to the southern stream as progs
deepen a trough toward the latter half of the weekend. This
system appears to have a jet couplet structure for large scale
lift. Morning GFS track this system over central illinois Sunday
into Monday, focusing the heavy precipitation over the southeast
third of the state. Snow would be the precipitation type for east
central areas. Meanwhile, the ECMWF track is more northwest of the
gfs but has trended southward from the previous run. The canadian
was a compromise of the GFS and ecmwf.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 846 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
ceilings will remain mixedVFR and MVFR as scattered snow showers
and flurries affect much of the area. The exception will be the
east, where lake-effect snow showers will continue into early
Tuesday, resulting in ifr and even lifr conditions at times.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until midnight cst tonight for wiz038-
039-048-049-073-074.

Winter storm warning until 6 am cst Tuesday for wiz022-040-050.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Ak
long term... ... Tdh
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi61 min Calm G 1.9 22°F 1028.4 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi41 min NNW 17 G 18 14°F 1028.3 hPa (+0.8)10°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi61 min N 4.1 G 7 13°F 1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI24 mi1.8 hrsN 71.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist17°F15°F92%1030 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi45 minNNE 10 G 159.00 miLight Snow14°F10°F88%1031.4 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7E5E6E6E6SE9SE12SE10SE11E10E9E9NE10NE10NE8--NE9N8NE9N9N10N10N10
G15
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3W4W4SW8SW66SW8--SW11
G18
S8S4S3S6S7SW10SW9SW5SW6SW4S6
2 days agoNW5NW55NW4NW4NW4NW4NW7NW8N13
G16
N13
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NW754W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.