Wednesday, April25, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pacific City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 11:33 PM PDT (06:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 926 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 24 2018
Rest of tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed..S wind 5 to 10 kt, veering to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw 1 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed night..W wind 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..S wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..S wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 6 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 6 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Sun..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 11 ft.
PZZ200 926 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 24 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Thermal low pressure over the waters will gradually weaken tonight. Low pressure moving north tonight will bring a southerly wind reversal tonight along the immediate coast tonight. A stronger southerly push arrives Wed night and Thu, along with possible gusty winds and fog/low clouds. A weak front is expected over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pacific City, OR
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location: 45.17, -123.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 250417 aaa
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
917 pm pdt Tue apr 24 2018
updated aviation and marine sections.

Synopsis Strong high pressure over the region through midweek
will give way to an upper level low pressure system late in the
week. After a couple of sunny and warm days, showery weather returns
with the upper low, as well as more seasonal temperatures lasting
through the weekend.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Low level offshore gradients
weaken some tonight as weak surface low pres shifts north into the
thermal induced trough position along the coast. The area of low pres
remains primarily along the coastal region tonight through wed
night, perhaps allowing some marine clouds or fog to sneak north up
to the central oregon coast as winds turn weakly onshore at times.

Otherwise the rest of the region should remain mostly clear with
warm temps.

On thu, as the upper low off the north ca coast inches closer, the
surface trough finally make a more decisive move inland into the
cascades. This turns the low level flow onshore across most of the
forecast area, with a SW push that will spread cooler air first into
the south willamette valley, then spread north over the interior
through the rest of the day and into Thu evening. GFS remains
decidedly quicker at spreading chances for showers inland Thu night,
but ultimately, with the sse flow aloft spreading moisture in aloft
and the inland movement of the marine push providing a low level
boundary, will see a chance for some showers spreading in Thu night.

Model soundings are not particularly favorable looking for deeper
convection Thu night, but with modest diffluence aloft in the sse
upper level flow, will continue to indicate a slight chance for
thunderstorms Thu evening mainly over the cascades.

By Fri models have the upper low approaching the coast near the ca-
or state line. A deep marine air mass is evident in model soundings
fri, coupled with some moist layers in the mid and upper levels.

This brings a general increase in the chances for showers, along
with a cooler marine air mass throughout the forecast area.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... Models consistent in
showing the upper low progressing slowly across the pacific nw
through the early part of the weekend, augmented by another
shortwave attaching to the low Sat night and sun. This will keep a
decent chance of showers over the region into sun, which combined
with the low level onshore flow keeps temps a little below seasonal
normals. Sun night into Mon models in pretty good agreement that the
upper trough shifts east as a ridge of high pres presses in from the
west. This will allow temps to moderate some during the early part
of next week, while the chances for showers diminish.

Aviation 06z tafs: mainlyVFR conditions are expected through
the next 24 hrs. Low marine stratus has nearly arrived at
florence (k6s2) with a scattered 005 deck currently indicated.

Seems like it will have no problem making it as far north as
konp, but have some question if there will continue to be just
enough weak offshore flow to push the clouds offshore or not.

Work up the southern oregon coast tonight, and there is some
chance that ifr stratus will develop at konp for a period
overnight or early Wed morning. General offshore flow has
weakened with light northerly flow in place along the coast ahead
of the southerly surge with expected south winds to the south.

If stratus can hold close to the coastline, then there will also
be a chance of ifr conditions for ktmk and kast for a large
portion of daylight tomorrow.

Inland, expectVFR conditions to prevail. The surface low will
keep breezy winds along the northern oregon foothills and a 8-15
kt breeze of easterly flow out the gorge. Am somewhat unsure if
the east winds will make it to kpdx and more unlikely khio.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions through 26 06z. Light east
flow will favor westerly approaches. It's possible winds may
increase to around 15 kt tonight, but it should not impact most
operations if they do. Jbonk

Marine Thermal surface low pressure has weakened with a non-
trivial low circulation currently pushing a surge of low stratus
currently as far north as florence and southerly winds to about
lincoln city. Latest observations at florence indicated low
clouds remaining about 500 feet off the surface. North bend had
lower clouds at 300 feet and drizzle, but not much fog. Winds
across the north are slowly easing and will keep the SCA for
winds over the north outer waters, however, we may be able to end
it early. The southerly winds will continue to ease northward
tonight with perhaps a very brief push of winds gusting to around
15 kt before settling back down to 5-10 kt. Seas have flirted
with 10 ft this evening but the longer period westerly swell is
also slowly easing with no further concerns for seas tonight.

A more substantial southerly surge is expected Wednesday night
and Thursday morning which will likely result in widespread fog
and low clouds. Showery low pressure returns for Friday into the
weekend. A weak front is expected to arrive over the weekend,
which may bring a period of small craft advisory winds. Seas
should remain in the 5 to 7 ft range through the remainder of
the week. Jbonk pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 2 am pdt Wednesday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 27 mi51 min 51°F
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 38 mi51 min SSW 1 G 4.1 55°F 52°F1015.9 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 39 mi33 min S 14 G 17 52°F 1016 hPa (+1.7)
46097 41 mi163 min W 1.9 56°F 52°F1013.9 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 45 mi33 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 54°F 52°F1015.6 hPa (+1.5)49°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR19 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair54°F44°F72%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE8NE5
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmSE4CalmS4CalmS4SE3CalmNE7NE13NE11
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6NW10W16

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Wed -- 04:01 AM PDT     1.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:31 AM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:20 PM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:39 PM PDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Wed -- 04:02 AM PDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:24 AM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:35 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:21 PM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:32 PM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.