Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne Falls, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:37PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:24 PM EDT (03:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1004 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Numerous showers after midnight. Scattered Thunderstorms through the night. Periods of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201708221015;;751796 FZUS53 KAPX 220204 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1004 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-221015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne Falls, MI
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location: 45.17, -84.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220139
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
939 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Update
Issued at 939 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
upstream cold front remains west of michigan late this evening...

extending from near the arrowhead of minnesota thru western iowa
into kansas. Plenty of warm moist air streaming northward ahead of
this front continues to interact with a large axis of instability
to generate several areas of convection across the western great
lakes and the upper mississippi valley. Area of convection
quickly developed over the past hour or two across portions of
northern lower michigan... Featuring some thunder and heavy
rainfall. Marginal severe threat appears to be largely finished
with loss of instability in agreement with latest SPC day 1
outlook which now puts all of michigan in only general thunder for
the remainder of the night. Latest short term models show this
initial wave of convection lifting off to our NE over the next
couple of hours... With a more widespread wave of precip
developing later tonight just head of the approaching cold front.

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
ill-defined and stalling cold front is draped across the straits
region. This front connects with low pressure in nebraska, which
will intensify as it lifts NE along the front. Intensification
will be most rapid over and downstream of northern mi, overnight
into Tuesday. This coincides with falling heights aloft, and the
eventual arrival of an upper trof Tuesday.

Diurnal heating was interrupted this afternoon by the eclipse
(temps fell by a few degrees in many locales), but has resumed.

Steamiest surface parcels are found from pln to apn (with apn
81 69f), leading to MLCAPE values near 1500j kg along that axis.

Earlier CU field here faded with the eclipse, but some mid-clouds
are approaching which indicate some weak mid-level forcing and
erosion of any capping. Hrrr runs are becoming inconsistent as to
whether something can pop in NE lower mi this afternoon early
evening. If it does, earlier discussions about favorable
shear instability for supercells and svr wx remain valid. We are
seeing some cells cook off SW of cad, which is not handled well by
the cams. There is certainly a nose of better instability (mlcape
just above 1k j kg) poking into that region, but there is much
less in the way of shear down that way.

More widespread convective activity is still expected to break out
tonight, with the arrival of stronger forcing (to counter
decreasing instability). Last several runs of the hrrr show this
occurring in the 8-9pm range in NW lower mi, which would probably
be soon enough to support a strong svr threat before instability
wanes too much. Will maintain an evening mention of strong svr
storms in northern lower mi.

Very juicy airmass (pwats around 1.75in) will support locally
heavy rainfall. This will become a bigger player overnight, as
forcing and precip coverage increases. 0.50-1.0 inch amounts
should be common, and locally higher amounts are anticipated.

Numerous to widespread pops in order for the overnight.

Showers will end from NW to SE on Tuesday, as the low departs and
associated cold front swings thru. By mid-afternoon, only hanging
onto a slight chance of a shower for osc tawas. We will be on the
breezy side from about late morning onward. Decreasing cloud
cover, though with enough diurnal heating and cool air aloft to
support a CU field (especially away from lakes mi superior).

Min temps tonight quite mild, ranging thru the 60s. MAX temps
Tuesday mainly in the 70s, some upper 60s near superior.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Much cooler weather for midweek...

high impact weather potential: nothing.

Longwave pattern becomes more amplified for the midweek period as
deep fall-like trough digs into the great lakes and northern conus.

Embedded shortwave energy rotating through the trough may bring some
light scattered precipitation to eastern areas Wednesday, otherwise
quiet weather.

Deep layer drying Tuesday night behind the front as much cooler air
sweeps into northern michigan. Early Wednesday, a well-defined
shortwave pinwheels around the stacked low now over quebec, pushing
a secondary cold front and associated band of deeper moisture across
northern michigan. A few scattered light showers could result,
mainly over eastern upper. Otherwise, even cooler temperatures will
headline the midweek portion of the forecast with high temps ranging
from the low-mid 60s north to the upper 60s to 70 degrees
elsewhere... Some 10 or so degrees below normal for the third week of
august.

Additional shortwave energy may pinwheel through the eastern lakes
on Thursday, possibly brushing lake huron areas with an isolated
shower. Otherwise, large canadian high pressure will slowly slide
southeast into the area resulting in lots of sunshine but still cool
temperatures.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
high pressure will be over the great lakes region through Saturday
along with dry air, mostly clear skies, and rain free weather
through Saturday night. Sunday will see increased cloudiness and
rain chances throughout the day as an upper level area of low
pressure and surface reflection develops over the southern great
lakes with accompanying moisture. Rain chances will stick around
Monday as well as said area of low pressure remains over the
forecast area. Temperatures will only be around 70 Friday and warm a
bit the remainder of the period... In the low to mid 70s. Friday
morning has an opportunity to see some frost, with clear skies and
light winds... Some mid to upper 30s are not out of the question for
our colder locales. The rest of the forecast period will see lows in
the mid 40s Saturday morning and warming to the mid 50s by Monday
morning.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 703 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
showers and thunderstorms will develop across northern michigan late
this evening and overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.

Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR ifr... Especially within
heavier showers and thunderstorms. Convection will continue into
Tuesday morning before cold FROPA brings precip chances to a close
Tuesday afternoon. Light southerly winds this evening will become
sw late tonight... Eventually shifting to the W NW on Tuesday and
strengthening to 15 to 25 kts in the wake of the cold front.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
light SW winds will persist for much of tonight, ahead of low
pressure that will intensify as it crosses northern mi late
tonight. Winds will veer NW behind the low, becoming quite gusty
Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will be hoisted
for many waters shortly.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
lmz323-342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Jz
short term... Jk
long term... Tl
aviation... Mr
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 18 mi34 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 70°F1012.8 hPa70°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi44 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1011.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 1011.1 hPa62°F
45020 44 mi34 min SSW 12 G 16 74°F 71°F1 ft68°F
45175 46 mi24 min S 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 68°F1011 hPa (-3.0)
WSLM4 48 mi54 min E 6 70°F 68°F1011.7 hPa66°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI17 mi31 minWSW 79.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1011.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI17 mi28 minN 07.00 miOvercast68°F66°F95%1011.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI19 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast69°F67°F93%1011.5 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI20 mi30 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F70°F100%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from GLR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8SW7SW7SW5W6CalmCalmSW3SW4W5SW6W8W8SW7S7SW7SW6S7S7S4S4W6SW7
1 day agoCalmSW5SW4SW6SW8W5SW4SW4W6SW8W7W6SW10SW13SW12SW10SW10SW13SW11SW7SW8SW6SW9SW9
2 days agoW6W7W7W5W4W4W5W4W6W4W8W86W12W116W10W8W13W9W5CalmCalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.