Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:43PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 3:06 AM CST (09:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:38AMMoonset 6:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 909 Pm Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst Wednesday through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..SW wind to 30 kts. A few gale force gusts to around 35 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
Wednesday night..W wind to 30 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Mostly clear.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly Sunny. Wave height forecasts are for ice free areas.
LMZ541 Expires:201801171115;;563573 FZUS53 KGRB 170309 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 909 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-171115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 170354
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
954 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 946 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
temperatures have dropped off significantly in areas where skies
were clear and winds died off. The pressure gradient will begin to
tighten overnight, and some middle clouds will drop into the area
from the north. That's likely to cause temperatures to bounce
around some. Wind chill indices may edge into advisory criteria at
times, but the overall situation looks a little too marginal to
warrant an advisory.

Blowing and drifting snow remain a concern for tomorrow. Re-issued
the sps, and will allow the midnight shift to make a final
decision on whether or not conditions will warrant an advisory.

I's actually very difficult to meet the visibility criteria for a
winter weather advisory for blowing snow (< 1 2sm for 3 hours),
but significant travel impacts can occur with visibilities much
higher than that (2-3sm with blsn if there isn't any new snow
falling).

Short term Tonight and Wednesday
issued at 207 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
weakening low level convergence and steep low level lapse rates
contributing to scattered light snow showers this afternoon over
eastern and northern cwa. Further weakening of the convergence and
increasing mid-level ridging should end bulk of the -shsn by
evening, however a few flurries may persist. Clearing skies and
fresh snow cover should allow temperatures to fall off rapidly this
evening before leveling off as low level winds increase. Lingering
winds of 5 to 10 knots and temperatures falling below zero will
result in wind chills falling to 10 to 15 below zero for a time
overnight.

Tightening pressure gradient between low pressure passing well north
of the u.S. Canada border and strong high pressure sinking into the
southern plains will result in the increasing low level winds late
tonight and on Wednesday. Forecast soundings show the likelihood of
15 to 20kt sustained winds on Wednesday, with gusts of 25 to 30
knots possible. These levels would result in widespread drifting of
the fresh, powdery snow. Some of the snow will become lofted,
resulting in patchy reduced visibilities, especially in door county.

Gusty west winds will pick up momentum over the ice cover on green
bay so wind gusts may exceed 35 knots, possibly requiring a winter
weather advisory or warning for door county.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 207 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
Wednesday night and Thursday:
quiet weather is expected Wed night under high pressure, except
for some blowing drifting snow possibly continuing in the east.

A passing wave may bring a little light snow to the northern
forecast area Thursday, with the best chance occurring in the
morning. Little to no accumulation is expected. West to southwest
winds will push high temps to a few degrees above normal for mid-
january.

Friday and Saturday:
dry weather is expected for late week, with a west to southwest
low level flow resulting in even milder temperatures. Highs could
crack 40 in the south by Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday:
attention then turns to the next big low taking aim at the region
early next week. Models are in decent agreement in taking the low
across or just to the south of the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday, though there are some impactful differences. The
northernmost track among models would result in primarily rain for
the bulk of precip, with maybe an inch or two of snow on the back
side of the low Monday. The farthest south solution would be
mainly snow across roughly the northern half of the forecast, with
rain or a rain snow mix in the south. There is the potential for
significant snowfall accumulations for those in the favored areas
northwest of the low track. Where that area will be though is
definitely still up in the air. This storm continues to bear
watching, with plenty of time left for details to change.

Could see a little light snow Tuesday, as the GFS and canadian
solutions bring a quick wave through. The ECMWF is dry for this
day though.

Temperatures early next week will largely depend on the track of
low pressure, with a northern track resulting in milder temps and
and southern track resulting in colder temps. It should be colder
Tuesday either way as the low departs the area.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 946 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
the main wx impact on aviation the next 24 hours will be
developing llws. The wind shear will expand southeast across the
area overnight, continuing and strengthening during the day
tomorrow. Surface winds may increase enough to produce some
blowing snow tomorrow afternoon, especially in eastern wisconsin.

Marine
Issued at 207 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
tightening pressure gradient will result in gusty west
winds developing late tonight and Wednesday. A few gusts could
reach gale levels, especially east of door county, but not enough
confidence to post gale warning at this time. However, a small
craft advisory GOES into affect Wednesday morning and continues into
Thursday afternoon.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Mbk
long term... ... Ddv
aviation... ... .Skowronski
marine... ... ... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi75 min SW 15 G 36 11°F 1028.1 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 22 8°F 1028.5 hPa3°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi87 min WSW 12 G 15 12°F 1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi71 minWSW 510.00 miFair7°F3°F87%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6N6N5NW4N7N8N6N5CalmSE5E5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W4W5W6
1 day agoE5E6E6E6SE9SE12SE10SE11E10E9E9NE10NE10NE8--NE9N8NE9N9N10N10N10
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2 days agoCalmSW4SW3W4W4SW8SW66SW8--SW11
G18
S8S4S3S6S7SW10SW9SW5SW6SW4S6E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.