Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:45PM Sunday September 24, 2017 1:40 AM CDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 853 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Rest of tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sunday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
Monday..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
LMZ541 Expires:201709241015;;837915 FZUS53 KGRB 240153 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 853 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-241015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 240336
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1036 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 208 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
a couple more unseasonably warm and humid days are expected before
temperatures begin to trend back toward seasonal normals.

The upper pattern across north america remains highly amplified,
with a trough around 115w and a ridge centered over the great
lakes region. The flow through the CONUS will begin to weaken the
next few days as energy begins to lift northeast out of the
western trough. That will result in the main westerlies
consolidating across canada and the northern CONUS into a slowly
progressive flow regime by the middle of the upcoming work week.

After a couple more unseasonably warm days, temperatures will
trend downward to near normal by mid-week, and possibly to a
little below normal by next weekend. Precipitation amounts will
be heavily dependent on what falls with the frontal system
crossing the area early to mid-week. Given the high moisture
content of the air mass, at least some areas are likely to end up
with above normal rainfall. But it's also possible some areas will
miss out on much of the rain. There will also be another
opportunity for rain late in the week.

Short term Tonight and Sunday
issued at 208 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
main forecast challenge remains on temperatures as synoptic
conditions are not expected to change much over the next 24 hours.

The 19z msas surface analysis indicated an area of high pressure
located over the eastern great lakes region, while a quasi-
stationary front stretched from the mn arrowhead southwest into
the central plains. Visible satellite imagery showed only
scattered fair weather cumulus clouds across northeast wi, with
any precipitation situated along and west of the frontal boundary.

Temperatures were again unseasonably warm with several records
likely to be tied or surpassed.

Not much change is expected in the overall, highly-amplified
pattern with a deep upper trough over the western CONUS and an
upper ridge over the eastern conus. This keeps northeast wi locked
in a southerly flow through the end of the weekend with
unseasonably warm and humid conditions. The northern edge of the
quasi-stationary front may edge east just enough tonight such that
a few showers thunderstorms would reach northwest wi and impinge
upon north-central wi through the night. Therefore, may mention a
slight chance pop for parts of vilas county, while the rest of the
region stays dry, muggy and mild. There could be some patchy fog
once again, mainly over the north and along the lakeshore
including the nearshore waters. Min temperatures to primarily
settle into the middle 60s.

On Sunday, the quasi-stationary front edges back to the west, thus
a dry forecast is expected across northeast wi under mostly sunny
skies. Another unseasonably warm and humid day is on tap, although
temperatures aloft do cool a couple of degrees. Look for max
temperatures to range from the lower 80s near lake mi, to the
middle 80s north and upper 80s south.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
issued at 208 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
the models were in fairly good agreement on the timing of the
frontal system crossing the area, though they were perhaps a
little slower than previous runs. Given the very moist air mass in
place ahead of the front, opted to include thunder in the wx grids
until the front clears the area.

After a period of cooler and much drier weather mid-week, the
chance for rain will return as shortwave energy digs through the
area and into the large scale trough that will begin shifting east
of the region by that time. The dynamics look much stronger at
that time, but the available moisture won't be nearly as high as
with the initial frontal system.

Overall, the forecast initialization grids generated from a
broad-based blend of guidance products looked reasonable and no
significant changes were necessary.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1036 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
mainlyVFR conditions to persist over the next 24 hours, other
than some patchy late night fog which could lower vsbys into the
MVFR range. Given the high cirrus currently in place from upstream
thunderstorms the threat from fog does not appear to be that high.

Some llws is possible at krhi later tonight as winds just above
the surface could reach 30 knots. Llws will dissipate with mixing
Sunday morning, however it will return during Sunday evening
across the western TAF sites as low level winds once again
increase to around 30 knots.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Skowronski
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi61 min S 2.9 G 7 76°F 1017.3 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi41 min S 7 G 8 75°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.3)66°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi61 min SSW 6 G 7 69°F 1017.3 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 39 mi51 min S 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 67°F1 ft1018.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi45 minSW 510.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4SW3SW5SW5SW4SW6SW5SW65S7S6S8SW12SW10SW8SW6S5SW5S4SW6SW6SW4SW5
1 day agoS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9SW8SW7SW9SW9SW9N10E4SE9S11S10S5S4CalmSW5SW4SW5
2 days agoCalmNW3N5N4NE6N7N6--NE6E10E6E7CalmE7SE4SE3E3E4SE5S5S5SE4Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.