Sunday, May26, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:48PM Saturday May 25, 2019 11:54 PM PDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:48AMMoonset 10:42AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 258 Pm Pdt Sat May 25 2019
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds. Showers in the evening.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun night..N wind 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Mon night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Tue night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Wed..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. SW swell 5 ft.
Thu..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SW swell 5 ft.
PZZ200 258 Pm Pdt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. An upper level low will move across the pacific nw coastal waters tonight. Weak high pressure will then linger over the waters through at least Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 260429
area forecast discussion
weather service portland or
919 pm pdt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis Low level onshore flow will keep temperatures near
average with a risk for a shower or thunderstorm for inland locations
through the first half of the week.

Short term Tonight through Tuesday... Water vapor satellite imagery
this evening reveals a mid to upper level low pressure system
dropping southward just off the oregon coast. An area of mid level
deformation led to widespread rain late this afternoon and early
this evening across northwest oregon and southwest washington. The
forcing driving this precipitation is quickly dropping southward with
the low pressure and should result in a gradual decrease in rain from
north to south across the area overnight.

As the low pressure continues to drop southward towards california
overnight, increasing easterly flow will develop above 925mb. This
should result in a lot of the cloud cover departing the region as
well. However, there may be enough northwesterly low level flow to
keep at least some low clouds entrenched across portions of the area
into Sunday morning. Any low clouds lingering into Sunday morning
should dissipate rather quickly with daytime heating, though.

With warmer temperatures aloft and increased sunshine, high
temperatures should warm into the 70s for the willamette and lower
columbia river valleys Sunday through Tuesday.

The big forecast uncertainty revolves around when and where shower
and thunderstorm chances are highest during this time period. At this
point, it appears the lane and linn county cascades appear to be the
safest bet to have at least a thunderstorm or two develop Sunday
afternoon per the latest round of model guidance.

Pattern recognition suggests the threat should be at least as high
across the south washington cascades, too. The problem with that
idea is that an area of widespread showers over west-central idaho
associated with an area of mid level deformation and a weak 700mb
low pressure will move northwestward and then eventually westward
across washington later tonight and Sunday. There may be enough
residual cloud cover to limit solar insolation across the south
washington cascades Sunday to inhibit convection. Nonetheless, some
model scenarios weaken this feature before it arrives while others
keep it farther north over the central washington cascades. As a
result, the inherited thunderstorm forecast captures this
uncertainty well so few changes were made to the southwest
washington thunder forecast. It should be noted that the
thunderstorm threat for the portland vancouver metro is very much
dependent on whether or not thunderstorms develop over the south
washington cascades Sunday afternoon and then subsequently spread
southwestward towards the metro.

Elsewhere, did expand the mention of thunder into the east slopes of
the coast range late Sunday afternoon and early evening. This is
primarily due to some models suggesting there may be enough
instability for a surface based storm or two to pop late Sunday
afternoon and evening. These same model dewpoint fields seem a bit
high so am somewhat skeptical there will be enough low level
moisture to make it happen, but cannot ignore the possibility
either. While some models suggest this instability will be equally
impressive across the central and southern willamette valley Sunday
afternoon, any shower and thunderstorm development will likely be
focused over the terrain initially given the light steering flow. It
will take some time for outflows to converge and realize the
potential for the center of the south and central willamette valley
so have held off on the mention of thunder until the early evening
hours for these areas.

Otherwise, expect another round of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two to develop near and across the cascades on
Monday and Tuesday, but pinpointing who will or will not see wet
weather remains a low confidence forecast at best. Neuman

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday... Ridge of high pressure
remains in place over western canada. The high is far enough north
to allow for shortwave disturbances to slide south and clip our area
with a few chances for showers, mainly in the linn and lane county
cascades. Otherwise, expect fairly nice weather for the rest of the
forecast area through midweek, with marine clouds on the coast and
partly cloudy skies inland. Temperatures will be near seasonal for
this time of year, only a few degrees above normal inland. Next
weekend a more zonal flow pattern sets up over the pacific, but high
pressure remains fairly dominant over the pacific northwest into
next weekend. -mccoy

Aviation MostlyVFR conditions this evening with light rain
lingering. Expect rain to slowly taper off from north to south
overnight with MVFR becoming more widespread as rain dissipates.

Vfr conditions should return Monday afternoon with convection
over the cascades. Convection, including the possibility of
thunderstorms, will drift west into Sunday evening, encroaching
on valley terminals.

Kpdx and approaches... Rain decreases overnight and expect cig to
drop to MVFR as rain ends. Cig rises toVFR Sunday afternoon, but
convection, including thunderstorms, may move in from the east
late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Bowen

Marine Seas are holding at 10 to 12 feet this afternoon, with
the influence of a fresh swell holding conditions higher.

Meanwhile, winds across the outer portions of the coastal waters
continue to gust to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Have maintained the
small craft advisory for winds through 7 pm as a result. These
stronger n-nw winds will likely keep seas above 10 ft into this
evening, but gradually easing to 9 feet late. However, dominant
periods will likely remain at 9 to 10 seconds, so opted to extend
the advisory for hazardous seas a little longer, through 11 pm
for the inner waters and 5 am for the outer zones. Weaker
gradients Sun night through early next week will generally result
in wind speeds 15 kt or less. Seas eventually fall to around 5
ft Sun night or Mon as winds remain moderate Monday and Tuesday.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Sunday
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi43 min 54°F1012.1 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 60 mi43 min N 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 53°F1011.6 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 6 49°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi62 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast47°F46°F97%1011.2 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi59 minNNW 410.00 miLight Rain48°F46°F93%1010.8 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi62 minN 310.00 miOvercast50°F46°F86%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from MMV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW9SW6S5S4S6CalmS4S5CalmS5S4SW6S6SW7SW5SW5W6NW8W5NW6W5W6W4W4
1 day agoSW7SW5SW8SW7SW7SW6SW4SW7SW7SW10S11S11W11
2 days agoSW3CalmW3SW4W3CalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmS5S7SE5S5SW7SW9SW11SW13

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Morrison Street Bridge, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.