Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:24PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 4:16 AM PDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 4:51PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 253 Am Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...
Today..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the morning, then veering to W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the S 3 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. W swell 9 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, rising to 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 11 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed night..S wind 30 to 35 kt. Gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Combined seas 14 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 11 seconds, building to 18 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 21 ft at 17 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. W swell 20 ft.
Sat..S wind 30 to 35 kt. Combined seas 20 ft.
PZZ200 253 Am Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weakening cold front will push across the waters this morning. A much stronger frontal storm system arrives Wed and Thu, with southerly gales expected. Seas will likely reach 20 ft Thu night. Another strong strong front will arrive on Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 171030
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
329 am pdt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis A series of progressively moister fronts bring a
prolonged period of wet weather today through next weekend. Breezy
conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as well as periods of
heavy rain. Snow levels will lower to near the cascade passes Friday
and Saturday.

Short term Today through Thursday... Surface ridge is holding
longer than previously forecasting, holding precipitation back off
the coast longer than previously thought. We are starting to see the
ridge break down, however, which will allow the precipitation to make
it to the south wa coast in the next 6 hours. Over the rest of the
interior, relatively calm winds and clear skies have allowed for
areas of radiational fog to develop. As the front makes it closer
later this morning, expect fog to mix out ahead of the front.

This system is the first in a series of storms that will bring rain
back to the region through this weekend. Water vapor imagery shows an
impressive atmospheric river of moisture stretching from SE asia all
the way to british columbia. This "river" will be the moisture feed
for these storms, bringing heavy rain at times to the pacific
northwest.

This first front on Tuesday will keep the heaviest rain north of our
area. However most locations across our area will see some rain with
the front today. Only exception may be the lane county cascades. Rain
totals with this system will be greatest along the washington coast,
the willapa hills, and the washington cascades. Around 0.25
inch of rain is likely for for the north oregon cascades and coastal
mountains with less than 0.2 inch expected elsewhere. Only light rain
(less than 0.05 inch) is expected for lane county.

There will be break in the rain Tuesday night. Some fog may form in
the in the interior valleys and along the coast Tuesday night, but
any sky cover will limit the extent of this fog.

A moist warm front will start the second round of rain for the sw
washington and NW oregon coasts Wednesday morning. The extent of the
rain will be similar with this front with the best chance for rain
across the north and little-to-no rain expected for lane county. The
rain with this system will have a better potential to be heavy at
times in our northern counties, and rainfall totals will be higher.

There will not be a break Wednesday night as the trailing cold front
front moves across the area Wednesday night through Thursday. This
front is looking juicy, and expect widespread rain that will be heavy
at times. An additional 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the
higher terrain of SW washington and north oregon Wednesday night
through Thursday evening. Other areas (including lane county) can
expect 0.75 to 1.5 inch of rain. Depending on the rain rates, there
could be localized flooding concerns Wednesday night and Thursday
with the best chances for hydrologic concerns in the willapa hills
and near the fire burn scars in the columbia river gorge.

Besides rain, the Wednesday and Thursday fronts will generate windy
conditions for the coast and breezy conditions inland. South gusts
up to 45 mph are possible for the beaches, headlands, and higher
terrain with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible for the interior valleys
including the willamette valley. ~mccoy

Long term Thursday night through Monday... .No changes.

Previous discussion follows... Latest model consensus has the warm
front pushing onshore along the oregon and southern washington coast
late Thursday night. A baroclinic zone moves through the region with
model forecast pw values remaining high, continuing moderate to
heavy rainfall. Expect gusty winds especially along the coast and in
the higher terrain of the coast range with this system. Snow levels
will remain rather high around 5,000 feet. The cold front finally
passes across the region by late Friday, with ongoing showers and
lowering snow levels as the colder air mass moves over the pacific
northwest.

Timing and location of the heaviest rainfall may continue to change
with future updates, the key message is that a rather wet weather
system may bring abundant rainfall to the area. Expect to see some
rises on area rivers, especially in the coastal basins, and if the
heavy rain sets up over urban areas, some localized urban flooding
issues could develop. Also, locations with significant burn scars
should be aware of possible land or mud slides. Bishop

Aviation Weak high pressure over the areas giving way to a
front approaching from the northwest. Marine stratus approaching
the coast should be replacing the ifr fog conditions with MVFR
cigs early this morning. Inland areas are a mix ofVFR and ifr
due to fog early this morning. Will probably see fog expand some
through 15-16z, then effects of approaching front should diminish
the fog. Rain develops coast after 15z with generally MVFR
coastal mountain westward. Inland should have lowVFR as the
front crosses. Tail end of front may be far enough north where
keug area does not receive any rain. Mtns and cascades passes
becoming obscured in clouds by 18z.

Kpdx and approaches... Mix ofVFR and ifr in fog through about
16z. Then increasing clouds and wind with approaching front
should dissipate the fog. Gradually lowering CIGS as the front
moves through with lowVFR with rain prevailing from 18z to 23z
or so. mh

Marine A cold front moves southeastward across the waters
today with small craft advisory wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt across
the northern waters through this morning. Seas will climb to near
10 ft then subside tonight. The front should weaken enough to
prevent these winds and higher seas from spreading into all but
the most northernmost portions of the central oregon waters.

The next front will drop southeastward across the waters on late
Wednesday and early Thursday and appears likely to spread gale
force wind gusts of 35 to 45 kt into the waters so have issued a
gale warning for this system. A coastal jet could produce
locally stronger winds within 10nm of the coast. Either way, the
strong winds should allow seas to climb into at least the mid to
teens late Wednesday. After winds drop off behind the front
Wednesday and early Thursday, seas should drop rather quickly
into the low teens. However, models continue to suggest a large
westerly swell around 20 ft will move into the waters late
Thursday and may necessitate a high surf advisory. Additional
storm systems capable of producing gale force gusts appear
possible during the upcoming weekend as well. Mh neuman

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 1 pm pdt this afternoon
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Wednesday for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10
nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from
10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 9 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 10 nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for coastal waters from cascade head to florence or out 10
nm-waters from cascade head to florence or from 10 to 60
nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 8 am
this morning to 6 pm pdt this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 am to
6 am pdt Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi47 min 53°F1019.8 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi77 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 44°F 1020.4 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi24 minNE 30.25 miFog41°F41°F100%1018.7 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi21 minN 08.00 miFair44°F42°F93%1018.6 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi24 minN 00.50 miFog43°F39°F89%1019 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE43Calm3E3E3CalmCalmCalmN4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm3CalmE4CalmE3N5N4N4N4CalmCalmNW3N5CalmNW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Morrison Street Bridge, Oregon
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Portland
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Tue -- 03:29 AM PDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:46 AM PDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:16 PM PDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.91.72.22.21.91.61.310.70.3-0.1-0.20.21.22.12.62.52.21.91.51.20.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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St. Johns
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Tue -- 01:33 AM PDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:12 AM PDT     7.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM PDT     8.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.11.33.36.17.87.7764.83.52.21.20.40.21.74.87.78.68.27.36.14.73.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.