Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:29PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:55PMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1019 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201901232330;;805098 FZUS53 KAPX 231519 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1019 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-232330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231753
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1253 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Update
Issued at 1128 am est Wed jan 23 2019
snow event continues to pan out pretty much as expected so far
today as the surface low now sits just south of grand rapids. The
low will continue to lift northeast, passing through saginaw bay
late this afternoon. Axis of deformation with low level fgen
maximum is laid out north of this low over the apx forecast area,
and a developing trowal will lift into the area this afternoon.

The 12z apx sounding reveals deep layer moisture is in place with
a near isothermal profile from the surface up through 700mb. The
dgz is elevated, residing between 600-500mb, which has resulted in
small dendrites mixed with snow grains that makes for a somewhat
heavy compact accumulation. Still looking like the strongest
forcing and deepest moisture will continue to linger over
northern michigan into early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon,
the dry conveyor belt will begin to strip out moisture aloft from
south to north across the forecast area, which will bring a
gradual end to the snow as the system lifts out of the area.

Expect some lingering wrap around snow to linger across eastern
upper and tip of the mitt through early evening.

Temperatures are starting to rise a bit in our southeast counties
near saginaw bay, and they've already jumped above freezing just
south of gladwin and arenac counties. With the low level thermal
profiles in our southeast expected to hover around freezing this
afternoon, there may be a bit of rain mixing with the snow down
that way before precipitation comes to an end. Everywhere else
will just see continued snow through the rest of today with up to
a few inches of additional accumulation expected this afternoon,
highest across the tip of the mitt and eastern upper.

No changes to the existing headlines aside from extending the
advisory through 4 pm for gladwin, arenac, and iosco counties.

Will monitor how fast the accumulating snow tapers off later this
afternoon to see if any headlines can be dropped early, but most
guidance would suggest current expirations still look on track.

Near term (tonight)
issued at 352 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Long fused snow event continues...

high impact weather potential: another round of accumulating snow
today, transitioning to lake effect snow tonight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight composite analysis reveals a
well defined short-wave pressing into the iowa arkansas area.

Attendant surface low is over arkansas with an inverted surface
trough stretching up through the western great lakes, connecting
to a weaker surface low over southern ontario. Satellite imagery
shows a nice moisture plume warm conveyor belt extending from the
western gulf up into the lower great lakes along with a widespread
area of precipitation that extends up through the midwest and
across the southern half of lower michigan along a limiting
streamline. Further west, well defined deformation axis is
emerging across iowa and into wisconsin along the northern side of
the wave, and one can already see the next wave of heavier
snowfall pivoting into the region.

Aforementioned short wave over iowa arkansas expected to open
and lift into the western great lakes through this morning and
cross through northern michigan this afternoon into the evening.

Emerging deformation axis and attendant axis of heavier snowfall
still looking to slide up through northern lower eastern upper
michigan through the day bringing another round of heavier
snowfall to the entire cwa. Precip may get a bit mixy across the
far SE counties this afternoon and surface temps warm to above
freezing and warm nose aloft just skirts into the saginaw bay
area.

Transition to nnw lake effect snow unfolds quickly tonight with
passage of the low and cold air spilling back into the region.

Lake effect snows continue into Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns: headline management decisions for the
duration of the event.

Ongoing overnight lull in snowfall really put the brakes on
storm total accumulations with most locations probably under or
even well under an inch of snow since late last evening. As
mentioned above, there will be another round of heavier snow
sliding up through the region today. But barring any goofy f-gen
banded heavy snow that might develop, I anticipate another broad
3 to maybe 5 inches of new accumulation across the CWA with the
higher amounts through the tip of the mitt counties into eastern
upper michigan. This keeps most areas tucked under warning
criteria for the event (western mackinac's beefier snow amounts
yesterday i'm chalking up to localized lake enhancement).

Furthermore, with the lack of strong winds or any other auxiliary
impacts, my inclination is to downgrade the winter storm warnings
back to advisories.

All that said, changing downgrading headlines in the middle of an
event can lend itself to confusion particularly since there will
be another period of heavier snow today. So... At this juncture we
plan to keep headlines intact as is at this point and see how
things play out.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 352 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Several chances for snow with temperatures falling well below
normal Friday...

high impact weather potential: wintry travel and cold to end the
work week.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperatures and snowfall
through the period.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A weak feature dropping across the great
lakes Thursday will slowly exit east of the region Friday afternoon,
while an upper trough and extremely cold pool aloft dig into the
great lakes region Friday.

850 700mb and 500 300mb qvectors show significant forcing associated
with surface and upper level features pushing through the great
lakes Thursday, while models show sufficient moisture for pcpn
across much of the forecast area through the period.

Pcpn early Thursday will largely be driven by lake processes as
model soundings show limited mid and upper lvl mstr across much of
nrn michigan thru the morning. However mstr does quickly increase
rapidly by 18z Thursday in mid and upper levels in advance of the
digging 500mb trough. Expect a good shot of accumulating snows
across much of NRN michigan into Thursday evening, as vertical
temperature profiles show sufficient mstr extending up through the
-12c to -15c isotherm. Expect the highest snowfall amounts thru
Thursday evening to be located over the WRN lakes, as synoptic snows
combine with northwesterly flow lake snows off lake michigan and
lake superior.

A transition to mainly lake snow will quickly develop Thursday night
and Friday, as synoptic support diminishes on the backside of the
exiting surface feature and over water instability increases quickly
with 850mb temps falling to around -24c. Model soundings show 925-
850mb winds continue northwest early Friday morning with a low lvl
inversion around 7k ft. 925-850mb winds will tend more westerly
Friday afternoon, continuing lake effect snows within favored lake
michigan snow belts through Friday evening.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 352 am est Wed jan 23 2019
a couple of systems passing through the great lakes will continue a
very cold and wintry pattern across northern michigan through the
weekend and to begin the upcoming work week. A deep upper trough and
cold pool aloft will remain anchored over the eastern third of the
country and great lakes through the weekend. 850mb temps in this
pattern will be around -24c, generating temps well below normal with
day time highs struggling to warm through the single digits.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1253 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
widespread snow will continue across northern michigan this
afternoon as low pressure lifts through saginaw bay. Visibilities
and ceilings will generally remain MVFR to ifr, dropping to lifr
within the heavier bands of snow. Starting to see some breaks
develop in the snow shield downstate as drier air begins to
encroach from the south. This will lead to the snow diminishing
from south to north later this afternoon into early evening, with
the atmosphere then transitioning to a lake effect snow shower
setup overnight into Thursday for mbl, pln, and tvc. Winds will
remain generally light through the period, backing to the NW this
afternoon behind the departing system.

Marine
Issued at 352 am est Wed jan 23 2019
gustier northerly winds develop through the day leading to small
craft advisory winds waves. Another lull anticipated tonight
followed by stronger winds again Thursday and Thursday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz008-
015-020-025>035.

Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for miz016>019-
021>024.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for miz036-
041-042.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Friday for lmz345-346.

Update... Mk
near term... Ba
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Mk
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi48 min NE 13 G 15 26°F 1004.4 hPa (-3.4)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi30 min N 6 G 8 23°F 33°F1004.1 hPa22°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi52 minENE 31.00 miLight Snow25°F22°F90%1004.7 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi52 minENE 30.50 miSnow23°F21°F94%1003.4 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi53 minNNE 41.50 miLight Snow26°F22°F87%1003.7 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi55 minNE 60.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist21°F19°F96%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7SE7SE9
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S6SE7S9S7S4S3S3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmNE3E3NE4N4
1 day agoCalmS6SE3CalmCalmSE3SE4SE3SE4SE6SE5SE3SE5SE6SE4SE6SE7E9SE10SE12
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N10NE7NE5E4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmE3SE3E3E3E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.