Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 9:36 AM EST (14:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 4:27AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 412 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the afternoon. Scattered snow showers early in the morning, then numerous snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Periods of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201811201715;;579077 FZUS53 KAPX 200912 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 412 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-201715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201104
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
604 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 335 am est Tue nov 20 2018
high impact weather potential: more accumulating snow and
possible blowing snow for some areas.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level troughing and associated forcing, sfc low and deeper
moisture are all exiting east early this morning. Much colder, but
quite dry air was working into the region via some gusty northerly
winds that have been developing. This is out ahead of sfc high
pressure which extended from the plains to ontario. This colder air
was producing some weak lake effect in north low level wind flow
regimes. Certainly nothing that is too impactful. Upstream across
central canada, we already see the next shortwave and it's
associated sfc low which was working into manitoba. This system was
taking a continental track and appears to not have a ton of moisture
with it based on some current canadian obs.

Scattered weak lake effect snow showers in northerly flow regimes
will slowly translate northward through the day as 1000-850mb winds
gradually back to out of the wsw by later this afternoon. This is
due to the high pressure drifting across NRN michigan and the
approach of the aforementioned canadian shortwave. Snow accumulation
will be fairly minor due to the shifting winds and relative dryness
of the bl. That said, there will be some late day enhancement, as
the "deeper" moisture, waa, dpva and light snows from this system
arrive, starting the better seeder-feeder process. The better
snowfall is expected to be this evening though, and it's really a
quick-hitting kind of deal. However, the uvv's are quite impressive,
and there is a rather deep and near isothermal dgz. MAX lift however
is just under this dendritic growth zone based on many data sets.

Another similar looking scenario overnight, like the one ongoing
now. Much colder air filters into the region with h8 temps falling
to as -14c south to -20c north, and even with the large delta t's
and inversion heights to 5-6kft, the moisture in the bl is expected
to be relatively shallow, with and inverted v layer up to 3kft. 1000-
850mb flow will be veering all night too. Swinging from wsw to nw,
spreading out snow showers across a larger area.

Snowfall totals will be greatest across NW lower over to drummond
island, as the best snows occur while low level winds are out of the
wsw. Generally 1-2" totals there, but 2-4" north of m-32 and west of
i-75. An inch or less most other areas, down to none expected in ne
lower, in the far SE CWA toward saginaw bay.

Current gusty winds will be weakening through first half of the day
as high pressure arrives. The gradient tightens back up rather
quickly later this afternoon and through the night, as the sfc low
pressure tracks north of us and we stay in the tight gradient
through the night. Gusts of 20-25mph are possible by early evening,
and a mixed bl will keep similar numbers going through the night.

Areas along the NW lower and whitefish bay coasts are likely to feel
some 30-35mph gusts tonight. Blowing snow expected at times this
evening.

Highs today quite chilly, in the mid to upper 20s most areas. Lows
tonight ranging from 10-15f in eastern upper to 15-20f in most of
nrn lower outside of the NW flow regimes where clouds look to hold
readings in the lower half of the 20s.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 335 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Cold but mostly quiet for thanksgiving...

high impact weather potential... Minimal aside from wind chills in the
single digits below zero Wednesday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Troughing will deepen over eastern
canada and the northeast on Wednesday as a ~130 knot upper jet
streak digs into the great lakes region. At the surface, a departing
clipper system will be displaced by a strong canadian surface high (+2
standard deviations above the mean) and a surge of colder air sliding
into the upper great lakes for thanksgiving. The high will slide off to
our east by Thursday afternoon, giving way to increasing warm air
advection and rising heights over northern michigan as mid-level
ridging approaches.

Primary forecast concerns... Transient small lake effect snow chances
and Wednesday night low temperatures.

Tight thermal and pressure gradients over northern michigan will lead
to strong cold air advection on Wednesday as we sit between the
departing clipper system and the encroaching strong canadian high. H8
temperatures will quickly drop in the morning, ranging from -16c over
our southwestern counties to -21c over eastern upper through evening.

This will, of course, promote favorable over-lake instability, but
moisture looks to become pretty limited as pwats drop to ~0.1" or less
over eastern upper and northeast lower. Forecast soundings tell a
similar story, with low level moisture and inversion heights only
up to 5 to 6 kft and perhaps some dryness to overcome just off the
surface. Certainly not anticipating any significant activity given
limited moisture, but perhaps locally up to an inch Wednesday morning
within heaviest snow bands in nnw flow snowbelts. Shouldn't have
too much impact on holiday travel across northern michigan. Activity
should mostly dissipate Wednesday evening as low level winds shift to
the nne and subsidence increases aloft beneath the building high.

However, there may be a lingering band that pushes out over central
lake michigan and another over lake huron that likely won't pose any
impact to land.

Other big focus will be cold temperatures through thanksgiving morning
as the brisk northerly winds on Wednesday usher in an unseasonably cold
airmass. Highs Wednesday will range from the teens across eastern upper
to the 20s across northern lower (near 20 degrees north of m-32).

925 850mb temperatures over northern michigan are then progged to
drop to 2 standard deviations below the mean for this time of year by
evening. Skies are expected to at least partially clear across much of
the area Wednesday evening (especially along the i-75 corridor) before
mid-level clouds begin to increase somewhat during the second half of
the night. Winds will become light as the high slides overhead, but the
boundary layer likely won't become completely decoupled as per forecast
soundings. Still expect an efficient radiational cooling setup, which
will only be aided by current snowpack. Trended closer to MOS guidance
for Wednesday night's lows, with single digits across most of the area,
coldest across eastern upper and interior northern lower where lows are
expected to be closer to 0 degrees.

Partly sunny skies and generally quiet weather in store for
thanksgiving day. Still on the cold side, but most areas at least a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday. Very small chance for perhaps some
flurries coming ashore north of saginaw bay during the afternoon as
veering winds become sse.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 335 am est Tue nov 20 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

High pressure pushes off to the east Thursday night with southerly
return flow drawing increasing moisture into the region through
Saturday morning. Mid level ridge axis will cross northern michigan
Friday morning, leading to more moderate temperatures through the
weekend. A deep trough and associated cold front are then progged to
interact with the increasingly moist airmass to bring widespread
precipitation late Friday night into Saturday, mostly in the form of
snow Friday night before transitioning to rain Saturday morning.

Another system developing over the plains will eject towards the lower
great lakes later in the weekend, bringing more precipitation chances
to northern michigan Sunday and Monday. Colder conditions make a return
on the backside of this system heading into the middle of next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 604 am est Tue nov 20 2018
high pressure will cross NRN michigan today, before low pressure arrives
tonight north of the region. Current gusty northerly winds will
weaken through the first half of today, while also backing more
out of the wsw by late this afternoon, while also increasing as
the pressure gradient tightens in advance of the low pressure. The
gradient remains tight through the night, and gusty winds veer
back to out of the NW behind the passage of a cold front.

Out ahead of the low pressure, light snows will break out late
this afternoon and through mainly this evening, enhancing ongoing
light lake effect. This will lead to around an inch at tvc mbl,
minimal at apn, but maybe up to 3 inches at pln. MVFR snow ratios
will be around 18:1 with snowfall rates under an inch per hour.

These better snows exit later tonight with just some very minor
lake effect with minimal vsby restrictions (MVFR).

Marine
Issued at 335 am est Tue nov 20 2018
winds will continue to wind down into daybreak with sub advisory
speeds expected for at least the first half of today as high
pressure crosses the region. Low pressure will be passing to the
north tonight and the pressure gradient tightens rather quickly
later today. We stay in that tight gradient through tonight and into
Wednesday. Advisory level winds start developing by early this
evening in the nearshores of NRN lake michigan, then spread
throughout all areas tonight and continue into Wednesday. Gale force
gusts are anticipated in coastal convergence areas from the bridge
down through presque isle light. Will continue to ride the gale
watch since this doesn't start until late tonight into Wednesday
morning. High pressure and lighter winds arrive Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Wednesday for lhz345-346.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Thursday for lhz349.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to noon est Wednesday for
lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 pm est
Wednesday for lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Wednesday for lsz321.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi56 min NNW 8 G 11 24°F 1021.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi36 min NNW 5.1 G 8 19°F 40°F1020.9 hPa (+0.0)2°F
WSLM4 44 mi36 min NW 8 18°F 37°F1020.7 hPa (+0.0)7°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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S6
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N10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi41 minN 710.00 miOvercast22°F10°F60%1021.7 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi41 minN 07.00 miLight Snow18°F12°F79%1020.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi41 minN 07.00 miLight Snow22°F16°F80%1021 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi43 minN 05.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist14°F12°F92%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6S4SW6S5S5N15
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W8N9NW10N4
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1 day agoSW13
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G23
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W10W11
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N6N3N4CalmE5E5SE4E5SE6SE8E6E7
2 days agoN9N7
G15
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G16
NW8NW8
G15
NW8NW8NW8NW8NW5SE3SE4S5S5S6S6CalmS4SW7SW10
G18
SW15
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.