Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:13PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:34 AM EDT (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 8:08AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 330 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet in the morning.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201905221530;;262679 FZUS53 KAPX 220730 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 330 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-221530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220959
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
559 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 356 am edt Wed may 22 2019
high impact weather: minimal. Maybe a rumble of thunder tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
stacked low pressure was located in the central plains early this
morning, with a corridor of deep moisture (pwats 1.00 to 1.50") and
showers with embedded thunderstorms lifting N NE through lake
michigan, and toward NRN michigan. These showers were well north of
a warm front extending ese of the sfc low, through SRN il. Forcing
was being applied by low level confluent flow, theta-e advection via
a 40-45kt llj, increasing dpva in strengthening mid level flow, as
well as left exit region upper divergence from a 120+kt jet rounding
the based of the closed upper system. Attm, NRN michigan was just
seeing some thickening mid and upper level clouds. Looking a bit
upstream, there was a pre-frontal sfc trough that was out ahead of
the main cold front, which extended south into ks ok north texas.

Skies continue to thicken in clouds heading through daybreak, while
the aforementioned forcing pushes into the region. This will
saturate the low levels and bring in the band of rain from SW to ne
through the day. There is little in the way of MUCAPE ahead of the
warm front with these showers, on the order of 100-300j kg, so doubt
thunder is an issue. This is despite being in a lapse rate gradient
aloft. There is a likely period of quiet weather behind the warm
front, in the warm sector into the evening, before the pre-frontal
trough arrives ahead of the primary cold front later this evening
and into the overnight hours. This will result in another chance for
seeing maybe some better heavier showers, along with a chance for
some embedded thunderstorms. Although there are some definite
discrepancies in how much instability is around, there appears to be
at least 500-800j kg available. Have introduced thunder for all
areas during this time. No severe weather anticipated, which is also
in alignment with the latest SPC day 1 outlook. The primary cold
front does not really get here until Thursday. This allows all of
nrn michigan to remain in the warm sector for the night. This will
keep lows in the upper half of the 40s in eastern upper (southerly
flow off the cold lakes), to the mid and upper 50s most areas in nrn
lower. High temperatures today will top out in the upper half of the
50s for eastern upper and NE lower, to the upper half of the 60s
(maybe low 70s in spots) for downsloping easterly winds in the gtv
bay region.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 356 am edt Wed may 22 2019
high impact weather potential: a few thunderstorms remain possible
Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast: by Thursday morning, well-advertised low
pressure that's plagued parts of the midsection of the country early
this week is expected to have weakened considerably while shifting
northeastward across the upper mississippi valley western great
lakes. High pressure is expected to gradually press into the area
throughout the day Thursday before low-level return flow ramps up
late Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next system set to
bring wet and potentially stormy weather to northern michigan.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing shower thunderstorm
chances Friday.

Low pressure is expected to be situated across central lake superior
at the start of the period early Thursday morning with an attendant
cold front draped southward... Gradually pressing west to east across
the forecast area. See no glaring reason to remove inherited low end
pops across the eastern half of the forecast area Thursday morning;
however, those chances will rather quickly come to an end as high
pressure and much drier deep layer air press into the area
throughout the day. High temperatures Thursday likely predicated on
timing of the cold frontal passage, but expecting many area to climb
into at least the low 70s across northern lower (upper 50s-low 60s
across eastern upper).

Break in the active weather continues Thursday night prior to the
arrival of the net wave renewing shower chances as we head through
the day Friday and into Friday night. Latest trends continue to
suggest respectable moisture influx with both a pacific and gulf of
mexico moister plume advecting north, although question marks
revolve around the overall dynamics and resultant forcing. Will
continue thunder chances as well through this time frame given
guidance remaining fairly consistent in developing at least a
couple hundred j kg of MLCAPE across sections of northern lower late
Friday into Friday evening. Lots of time yet to monitor any severe
weather threat locally over the next few days, but will likely hinge
largely on the strength of large scale forcing for ascent, the
ability to develop instability and strength of winds shear
aloft... All of which latest trends are maximized well to our
southwest across the mid and upper ms valleys.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 356 am edt Wed may 22 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Shower and potential thunderstorm threat continues Friday night,
with relatively quiet conditions expected thereafter through the
upcoming memorial day weekend. Suppose there could be a rogue shower
or two during the Sunday Monday time frame, but that will large be
the exception rather than the rule. Temperatures look fairly
seasonable, ranging from the mid 60s to the mid-70s area wide
(perhaps even a few locations across downsloping locales of
northeast lower that are able to tag 80+ degrees.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 559 am edt Wed may 22 2019
stacked low pressure in the central plains will lift into mn by this
evening, pushing a warm front into NRN michigan by this evening.

Then, this low pressure and it's cold front crosses tonight and
Thursday morning. High pressure settles back in for Thursday night.

A band of light rain is expected ahead of the warm front today, with
another chance at showers and possibly a rumble of thunder tonight,
with the arrival of the system cold front. Not really expecting any
MVFR CIGS conditions through the TAF period.

Se llws is full effect into this morning, with gusty conditions
definitely expected today. Llws redevelops tonight out of the
s sw.

Marine
Issued at 356 am edt Wed may 22 2019
stacked low pressure in the central plains will lift into mn by this
evening, pushing a warm front into NRN michigan by this evening.

Then, this low pressure and it's cold front crosses tonight and
Thursday morning. High pressure settles back in for Thursday night.

The pressure gradient has been tightening all night, with easterly
winds as high as 40-45kts no more than 2kft off the water sfc, but
overlake stability, based on marine obs, have kept things in check
thus far. Doubt this may represent the "real world", and have issued
a small craft advisory for many nearshore waters. These advisories
go through today and into this evening, before winds weaken due to
strengthening overlake instability. Renewed advisory speeds are
expected out of the west Thursday, behind the cold front. Winds die
off Thursday night as the high pressure arrives.

Light rain showers arrives from SW to NE prior to daybreak, through
today, with another chance at rain tonight with possibly a rumble of
thunder.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from noon edt today through late tonight
for miz088-096.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lhz349.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lhz345>348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz323-
344>346.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 14 mi34 min E 12 G 16 44°F 38°F1 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.6)40°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi46 min E 9.9 G 11 44°F 48°F1020.9 hPa
45175 44 mi45 min SE 12 G 12 46°F 45°F1 ft1021 hPa38°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi39 minE 127.00 miLight Rain48°F45°F92%1017.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi38 minENE 67.00 miRain48°F46°F94%1019 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi38 minE 610.00 miLight Rain50°F44°F82%1016.6 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi41 minESE 610.00 miLight Rain47°F44°F90%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N4N5NW4N6NW5N5N6N9N8NE5NE7E8E8
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1 day agoN8NW10NW10
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N9N7W5W5W7SW5SW3CalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE17
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E11E11E12SE10SE11E10E5W4W7S7SW11
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SW10W11W8W8W10NW7NW9
G15
NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.