Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 6:36PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 420 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through late Tuesday night...
Today..Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the morning, then becoming northeast early in the evening. Rain showers early in the morning, then chance of showers in the morning. Rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Rain showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201710231600;;276318 FZUS53 KAPX 230820 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 420 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-231600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231043
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
643 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 347 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Stretch of wet weather ahead...

high impact weather potential... Heavy rainfall flooding potential
across northern lower michigan.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Broad high falls continue to spread into
the northern plains facilitated by a strong pacific jet and associated
short wave energy digging into the dakotas this morning. Southern
piece of short wave energy has largely pinched off from the main
upper trough (temporarily) and migrating through the lower-middle
mississippi river valley. At the surface... Slowing cold front has
finally pressed eastward into lake huron and stretches down through
saginaw bay into southern lower mi... Continuing to another surface
wave over western kentucky. However... A nicely defined deformation
axis and a narrow moisture rich corridor (pwat values in excess
of 1.5 inches) stretches from the missouri up through northern
lower michigan... Where persistent post-frontal rainfall continues
this morning.

Primary forecast concerns... Hydro.

Southern piece of short wave energy and (attending deepening
surface low) still looking to open up and accelerate northeastward
into the ohio valley today and up through the great lakes
tonight... In response to strong pacific jet energy digging into
the central southern plains. Strong deformation and upper jet
forcing acting on the aformentioned moisture plume continues to
set the stage for a prolonged heavier rainfall event up through
lower michigan... Especially this afternoon through tonight.

Increasing model consensus pegs that corridor of persistent heavy
rainfall from SW lower michigan right up through northern lower
michigan. Total rainfall amounts still remain a bit on the
uncertain side... Although nearly all guidance solutions
(euro GFS nam ensembles) have trended upward over the last 2
forecast cycles... Now suggesting somewhere in the 3 to 4 inch
storm total amount through the day Tuesday (with some guidance
solutions in the 4 to 5 inch range). Outside of the more
localized summertime convective events... Cannot remember the last
time we've seen that amount of rainfall in a 36 to 48 hour
stretch... So the impacts are a bit uncertain even with our sandy
soil conditions. But given the rainfall magnitude potential... And
upon collaboration with grr dtx... Plan to hoist a flood watch for
all of northern lower michigan valid from this afternoon through
Tuesday morning.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 347 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Cool with more rain showers and maybe even snow showers...

so it looks like the ECMWF had the correct idea all along with the
phasing as the GFS nam are now fully on board. So the general
consensus is for the deepening area of low pressure to start out
near the straits region early Tuesday then loop back around and head
southwest Tuesday afternoon before heading slowly northeast Tuesday
night. Models do vary on the exact details of how far south the
surface low tracks and how deep it is. Regardless, strong
deformation axis continues to provide impressive lift through the
day Tuesday (mainly across the southwestern forecast area). Model
qpf is on the order of an additional one half to one inch Tuesday
with perhaps another quarter to half inch Tuesday night. In
addition, wrap around rain with lake enhancement is expected into
Wednesday as well. Looking at thermal profiles, a mix with or an
eventual change over to snow may occur overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday. Would not be shocked if the higher terrain even picked up
a slushy inch or two of snow accumulation. It will be windy during
much of this time as well with gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph. The
additional rain may lead to areas of urban, small stream and river
flooding. Temperatures will be chilly with mainly 40s Tuesday and
Wednesday and lows in the 30s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 347 am edt Mon oct 23 2017
lake effect rain or mixed rain and snow showers may linger into
Wednesday evening but warm advection quickly kicks in decreasing
over lake instability. A clipper system then tracks southeast toward
northern michigan during the late Thursday into Friday timeframe.

This will lead to increasing rain shower chances late Thursday with
a shot of colder air to follow for Thursday night into Friday
leading to more rain showers which may mix with or change over to
snow (sorry but the warm temperature party looks pretty much over).

Another clipper and associated colder air looks to drop into
northern michigan over the weekend bringing more rain snow showers.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 643 am edt Mon oct 23 2017
low pressure over the mid mississippi river valley will advance up
through the great lakes through tonight. Persistent and... At
times... Heavy rainfall will continue along the track of this
system up through northern lower michigan. This will bring solid
MVFR to ifr conditions to the terminal sites through the upcoming
taf period.

Lighter winds today... But winds will increase substantially
tonight as the storm system nears the region.

Marine
Issued at 427 am edt Mon oct 23 2017
low pressure in the lower mississippi river valley will deepen and
move up through the great lakes tonight through Tuesday night.

This system will bring gale force gusts to many nearshore areas
through Tuesday night. Otherwise... A prolonged period of rain and
cool weather is anticipated through the week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Tuesday morning
for miz016>036-041-042.

Lh... Gale warning from midnight tonight to midnight edt Tuesday night
for lhz348-349.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to midnight edt
Tuesday night for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Tuesday
for lmz341.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Wednesday for
lmz323-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Tuesday
for lsz321-322.

Near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 14 mi18 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 60°F1 ft1015.5 hPa51°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 6 52°F 1014.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi40 min ESE 6 G 7 51°F 1013.2 hPa46°F
45175 44 mi18 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 52°F 58°F1 ft1015 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi34 minN 05.00 miRain51°F50°F100%1015.2 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi33 minNE 37.00 miRain49°F47°F95%1014.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi34 minN 04.00 miRain50°F48°F95%1014.2 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi35 minN 05.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F46°F97%1015 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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E3N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE6S7S10
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2 days agoS8S7
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SW10S6S7S8
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SE4SE3SE4S6SE5SE5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.