Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 7:40 PM   Moonset 5:24 AM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1005 Pm Edt Mon Apr 22 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Overnight - Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely early in the evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Tuesday - West wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Tuesday night - North wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Wednesday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 230744 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms into this evening. Marginal risk for a severe wind gust in southern areas.

- Cool tonight and Wednesday, turning warmer Friday into the weekend.

- Active weather this weekend with a chance for thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

996mb surface low is diving toward the north shore of Lk Superior.
An initial cold front is crossing western upper MI and central WI. Warm advection ahead of the front is contributing to a band of rain showers, now over the center of this forecast area.
These will progress east out of the area this morning, though a few trailing showers could form a bit behind the primary band.
Then, mid-level moisture departs for a time, at least up until more substantial height falls arrive late today.

Low clouds are tending to expand in the region. The south half of the forecast area will stay somewhat cloudier, but will still warm thru thin spots with late April sun angle. The north half will likely go partly sunny at times, especially in the 1st half of the day. That will contribute to them redeveloping showers sooner, by late morning/midday in eastern upper MI and the Straits. A few hundred J/kg of MlCape may allow for a few thunderstorms up there, but shear up there is far less than further south (0-6km bulk shear circa 25kt). That meager instability is unlikely to result in stronger t-storms.

Eventually, forcing and instability migrate south into northern lower MI this afternoon/evening. Instability will have a hard time exceeding 200J/kg, but wind fields are far stronger, and 0-6km shear values are some 50-60kt. Perhaps there's a chance for a strong/severe wind gust...aided by strong wind fields of course, but also by the relatively dry sub-cloud layer. (That's assisting us in getting gusty winds early this morning, as the showers move in). SPC has suppressed the marginal svr risk a bit southward, along and south of an mbL-Harrisville line, which seems fine.

Max temps today 55-60f eastern upper MI, in the 60s in most of northern lower.

Chillier and much drier air pours in tonight. Precip chances will get carried off to the south and east with time. Maybe a few snowflakes are seen toward the tail end. Dawn temps will range from near 20f in eastern upper MI, to near 30f in the far south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Cool northwest flow aloft on Wednesday behind a departing trough axis with below average daytime temperatures. Rapid moderation expected thereafter for the end of the week as ridging aloft builds overhead in response to a deep upper low in the Central Plains.
Upper low and attendant sfc cyclone then move northeast into the Upper Midwest resulting in warm, moist advection across northern Michigan. Consequently, rain showers, and thunderstorms, are likely this weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

System departs to the east Wednesday with cooler, below average temperatures expected (especially during the morning hours when wind chills will be in the 10s and 20s). Atmosphere will quickly rebound, however, as heights rise and ridging builds into the area late week.
Temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s once more during this time. Warm temperatures will remain through the weekend due to breezy southerly sfc winds and continued above normal height anomalies aloft.

A series of potent, compact upper lows will advect from the C Plains to the Upper Midwest Friday into this weekend. Consequently, warm, moist advection is anticipated with a mix of showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night through the weekend (in addition to breezy winds). Current guidance suggests the best period for thunderstorm activity will be Saturday as dewpoints surge into the 50s and perhaps low 60s fostering instability values ~500-1000j/kg (GFS/CMC ENS guidance shows 50%+ chance for 500j/kg). As the upper level features move to the west of the region, robust southwest flow overspreads northern Michgian. Progged GFS/CMC soundings are quiet impressive through the lower to middle troposphere with 40-50kts around 850 mb and vicinity. It does appear there will be showers earlier in the day on Saturday and so the degree of afternoon instability will potentially be in question (which is usually an issue for northern Michigan) but the potential for robust thunderstorms is at least hinted at given the current progged pattern. As a reference, CSU-MLP (Colorado State University Machine Learning Probabilities) do(es) suggest the potential for severe weather across northern Michigan on Saturday with a 5-15% probability (albeit this run was from Sunday evening, latest data is blank for some reason). That being said, we'll take our time and monitor this in the coming days, the finer details will certainly change.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Initial upstream cold front will swing thru our CWA overnight...
providing sct/nmrs showers overnight into early Tuesday. We will see a brief break in the action Tuesday morning...before additional chances of showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the secondary main cold front as it sweeps thru our region Tuesday night
Prevailing conditions will remain VFR thru Tuesday
dropping to MVFR at times within some heavier shower activity as well as Tuesday night behind the cold front. LLWS will develop across portions of Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan late tonight.
Surface winds will remain from the SW at 10 to 20 kts...becoming SW and eventually W/NW on Tuesday and strengthening to 15 to 25 kts behind the secondary cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.

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