Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:53PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 6:16 AM CDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:43AMMoonset 9:13PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 329 Am Cdt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..NW wind to 30 kts increasing to gales to 35 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 45 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NW gales to 35 kts decreasing to to 30 kts in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 45 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..NW wind 10 to 20 kts decreasing to 5 to 10 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly Sunny.
Wednesday night..N wind 5 to 10 kts veering se after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201710241645;;329243 FZUS53 KGRB 240829 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 329 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-241645-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 240959
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
459 am cdt Tue oct 24 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Wednesday
issued at 247 am cdt Tue oct 24 2017
active weather pattern this week with the development of a deep
low pressure system just northeast of the forecast area today for
starters. In addition to winds, colder air will provide the
chance for a rain snow mix to north central wisconsin later
today.

Strong pressure gradient developing over northeast wisconsin will
produce near or wind advisory criteria for much of the area with
the peak of the wind gusts starting late morning or noon. In
addition to the stronger pressure gradient for door county, winds
mixing down with wrap around showers also provide the potential
of near wind warning criteria. With the surface low progged to
stall and intensify over the eastern upper michigan and far
northern lake michigan with a 120 kt jet wrapping into the
system, will head to a high wind warning for door county. Winds
may reduce to advisory criteria this evening and later shifts can
adjust as needed.

Colder air will pour into the region on very gusty northwest
winds. Temperatures across the north will turn cold enough for a
snow or snow mix before the system departs to the northeast later
today into early evening.

The upper trough will continue to deepen over the region late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a north to south 170 kt jet
drops over the western two thirds of the state including parts of
central and north central wisconsin. The air mass will be cold
enough for snow or snow mix again, before warming to light rain
later Wednesday morning. Upper ridge begins to build into the area
later Wednesday with the upper trough shifting eastward. Quieter
weather with lighter winds and decreasing clouds will return
Wednesday afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
issued at 247 am cdt Tue oct 24 2017
focus of this forecast revolves around precip chances and precip
type during the Thursday night through Saturday period, when another
low pressure system slowly moves across the region. The ECMWF and
gfs are in reasonably good agreement, so a blend of these models
should suffice.

Wednesday night through Thursday night... Some low clouds may linger
over east-central wi within a low level convergence zone behind a
fast moving clipper. Though it appears these low clouds will depart
relatively early in the evening, they look to return to eastern wi
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning when low level flow
becomes southeasterly off the lake. Wouldnt be surprised to see
some drizzle or a few light showers develop on Thursday along the
lakeshore. At the same time, a potent low pressure system will be
moving across the northern mississippi valley on Thursday and
wisconsin on Thursday night. Forcing will increase ahead of the low
on Thu afternoon into Thu night, with upper divergence and mid-level
fgen focusing the heaviest precip over northern wi. Though temps
look too warm for any accumulations in the evening, the column may
cool enough for an inch of snow on grassy surfaces late Thu night
over n-c wi. No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast... As the low lifts northeast over northeast wi
and the upper peninsula, colder air will be wrapping in behind the
low on Fri and Fri night. The air looks to be cold enough for a
rain snow mix over north-central wi on fri, and possibly changing
back to all snow north and west of the fox valley on Fri night.

Perhaps a dusting to a half inch to an inch of accumulations will be
possible. Rain and snow showers look to continue for much of sat
before ending on Sat night as the low finally moves away. Quieter
weather then returns on Sunday.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 424 am cdt Tue oct 24 2017
northwest winds will ramp up this morning and continue into this
evening as a low pressure system stalls and intensifies over
eastern upper michigan. The winds could produce crosswind
restrictions at some airports. The winds will subside from
west to east early this evening as the low pressure system nudges
eastward.

Rain showers and MVFR conditions will accompany this storm system
today. Periods of ifr conditions with the heavier rain showers can
be expected. Rain will end from west to east later today along
with improving conditions toVFR levels from west to east this
evening.

Marine
Issued at 247 am cdt Tue oct 24 2017
a strong storm is forecast to deepen and remain nearly stationary
over eastern upper michigan and northern lake michigan today
before shifting to the east tonight. Gale warnings are already in
effect for both the bay of green bay and the nearshore waters of
lake michigan. Storm warnings have been posted for the open waters
of lake michigan.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for wiz005-010>013-
018>021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

High wind warning until midnight cdt tonight for wiz022.

Short term... ..Tdh
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Tdh
marine... ... ... Tdh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi36 min NNW 24 G 33 50°F 993.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi46 min W 8 G 14 50°F 994.7 hPa44°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi35 min NW 17 44°F 991.2 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 34 mi86 min NW 29 G 37 48°F 56°F7 ft991.6 hPa (-2.9)
45014 48 mi46 min W 16 G 21 52°F 58°F996 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI32 mi20 minWNW 13 G 2110.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%997.4 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE33W3NE4E3NW6NE5N3N4N3CalmCalmNW6--NW6NW8N14
G18
NW10W10W13
G21
1 day agoS14
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S10S10W10NW9W10NW5CalmW6SW4SW4SW4SW4SW4SW3SW3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS10S12S13S16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.