Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:48PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:17 PM CDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 907 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kts veering W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..NW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Isolated showers in the morning. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..NW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mostly clear.
Wednesday..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201708221015;;752041 FZUS53 KGRB 220207 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 907 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-221015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 212253
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
553 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 247 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
thunderstorms tonight, then turning cooler and less humid with
much quieter weather for the rest of the work week.

A band of westerlies across the northern CONUS and southern
canada will undergo substantial amplification the next several
days, resulting in the development of a longwave trough over
eastern north america. The westerlies will gradually weaken during
the latter half of the period as the flow consolidates back to the
north across canada. But at least some remnants of the upper
trough will linger near the area.

The developing northwest upper flow into the amplifying eastern
trough will bring a large anticyclone and associated dry airmass
southeast from canada. So the warm and humid conditions of today
will be replaced by seasonably cool temperatures by mid-week.

Readings will begin to rebound by the weekend. The main
opportunities for rain will be early and late in the period, with
amounts depending primarily on what falls in the next 18 hours.

That will probably still be sufficient to result in AOA amounts at
most locations.

Short term Tonight and Tuesday
issued at 247 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
strong large scale forcing will sweep across the area tonight as
shortwave energy digs southeast and begins to carve out the
eastern longwave trough. In addition, the rrq of an upper speed
max will pull through the region. Though the specifics of the
convective development area still a little unclear, those factors
should result in pretty widespread coverage of the storms tonight.

So took pops up to categorical across the area. Pwats rising to
near 2 inches combined with the large scale forcing will result in
a threat of heavy rainfall. There is also a risk for severe
storms, mainly through about midnight. Of most concern will be
the potential for damaging wind gusts due to merging cells
producing wet microbursts.

Cooler and drier air will begin to sweep into the area Tuesday,
but most locations will get off to a pretty warm start so readings
should still manage to warm within a few degrees of normal. Any
lingering showers in the east will end early in the day.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
issued at 247 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
northwest flow will dominate the western great lakes during the
mid-late week period with a large area of high pressure at the
surface sliding down from canada. This will provide for mainly dry
conditions through Saturday with temperatures generally slightly
below normal.

First chances for showers looks to be Wednesday night into
Thursday as a shortwave trough and upper jet speed MAX push into
the state. Some model timing and location differences, which
should be expected this far out which a weak feature like this.

Models favoring southwest wi for the best chances. Not much
moisture to work with, as surface winds are out of the ne, keeping
dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s. Will keep slight chance pops
across mainly central wi for now, but not too fired up on shower
chances.

Next chance for showers storms arrives this weekend as the next
shortwave approaches. Models differ on strength, timing, and
moisture, so hard to get much clarity at this point. GFS and to
some extend the ECMWF are a little faster bringing in some rain
with the canadian slower. Will keep some pops across central and
north central wi on Saturday to account for the slower solution
and keep chance pops going through Saturday night into Sunday. As
flow turns more out of the se, will get a little moisture return,
with dewpoints climbing into the mid-upper 50s, so rain storm
chances higher with this system.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be the coolest of the week,
with highs ranging from the lower 60s across north central
wisconsin to the low 70s farther south. Temperatures moderate only
slightly by the end of the week, with highs in the upper 60s to
middle 70s. Wednesday and Thursday nights look to be pretty
chilly, especially across northern wi where some of the typical
cool spots could drop into the 30s. The cool nights and mostly
clear skies should allow for some fog to develop as well.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 553 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
primarilyVFR conditions are expected during the TAF period, save
for some MVFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms
during the evening hours. Some stratocu with MVFR CIGS may develop
later tonight in the wake of the main precipitation, but low
clouds should exit Tuesday morning with dry weather and mostly
sunny skies for the balance of Tuesday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Bersch
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi38 min S 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 1009.8 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi48 min S 9.9 G 14 74°F 1009.6 hPa70°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi38 min SSW 11 G 15 71°F 1009.8 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 34 mi88 min SSW 14 G 18 70°F 68°F1 ft1011.5 hPa (-2.4)
45014 48 mi48 min S 14 G 18 73°F 72°F1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI32 mi22 minS 710.00 miFair71°F68°F90%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW9SW8W4CalmSW5W3W5CalmS3SW34CalmCalmCalmN3S6S9S7SE5S9S8S8S7
1 day agoSW5SW5SW4SW4SW5--SW3S5SW4S3SW6SW6SW9S12S12S9S10--S8S9S9S7S7SW8
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3SW4SW3W4SW4SW5W5W6W9W9W9--W9W12W10W8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.