Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:13PM Saturday March 25, 2017 10:41 AM CDT (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 4:27PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1015 Am Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft. A slight chance of light rain.
Tonight..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft on the bay...and to 3 to 5 ft on the lake. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog developing.
Sunday..NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft on the bay...and 2 to 4 ft on the lake. Periods of light rain. Areas of fog.
Sunday night..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of light rain.
LMZ541 Expires:201703252215;;061287 FZUS53 KGRB 251515 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1015 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-541>543-252215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 250923
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
423 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 420 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017
cloudy, chilly, and wet weather for the weekend, then a little
warmer next week.

The large scale pattern across north america will be dominated by
split flow during the period. A series of southern stream upper
level cyclones will slowly cross the country. The first will
continue to bring wet weather to the area for the rest of the
weekend. A second will pass south of the area early next week. A
third appears likely to bring precipitation to the area late in
the week and into next weekend. Clouds, precipitation, and
northeast winds will keep temperatures cool the next couple days.

Readings should warm to near or a little above normal for the
upcoming work week. Precipitation amounts are likely to end up
above normal, especially across the southern part of the forecast
area which will be closer to the southern stream storm track.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday
issued at 420 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017
aligning pops and determining precipitation type tonight were the
main forecast challenges this morning. The main rain band has now
shifted south, even more so than expected yesterday. It will
shift back north as the upper low from the plains edges closer,
but models differed on how quickly that would happen. Trended
forecast strongly toward the ECMWF which usually verifies well
with this type of system.

The toughest part of the forecast was determining precipitation
type tonight. On one hand, dry air was just to the northeast of
the area. Surface dew points northeast of lake superior were in
the single digits early this morning, and the low clouds in that
area were being scoured out. A continuous feed of that air into
northeast wisconsin today and tonight favors evaporational
cooling once the precipitation returns, which could easily take
temperatures below freezing over the northeast part of the
forecast area. On the other hand, there will be thick overcast
and temperatures have not been falling as much as expected at
night. Readings barely dropped to freezing last night (though
roads over the north did ice-up from the precipitation that fell
then). Raised mins for tonight a little above the broad-based
blend of guidance products to account for the recent cool bias.

But precipitation type will still come down to a degree or two one
way or the other in temperatures, so opted to go with a mention
of both r/zr in the forecast. Confidence was just not high enough
to post an advisory with the morning issuance, but will issue an
sps detailing the threat of getting some icing of roads over the
northeast tonight. It will be up to the day shift will need to
make a final decision on an advisory. They will also have the
benefit of seeing just how much dew points drop as the drier air
starts to filter in from the northeast.

The upper system will pass just southeast of the area Sunday.

But with the system weakening, expect precipitation to gradually
become more scattered with time.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
issued at 420 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017
00z models were not as consistent as one would like during this
part of the forecast. Finer details are different but the general
consensus is that pops decrease Sunday night through Monday as an
upper system and surface low depart. Precipitation type is a
concern in north central wisconsin again on Sunday night as
temperatures there fall into the 29 to 32 degree range. Freezing
rain was included Sunday night for this reason.

There were significant differences in the forecast strength
and track of a system that is expected to pass to the south of
wisconsin Monday/Monday night but its associated QPF should
remain south of the forecast area.

A surface ridge and building upper ridge should help to keep the
area dry from Monday night into Wednesday evening. After that, a
system developing over the southwest CONUS approaches the great
lakes, but models showed large differences in the track of the
system. The model blend had a chance for precipitation in the
area from late Wednesday night through Friday, with snow and/or
rain at night and rain during the day.

Near or above normal temperatures are expected through the end of
the forecast.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 420 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017
fairly uniform ifr ceilings were across the area early this
morning. Ceilings will probably lift some during the day (to MVFR)
as drier air tries to work in from the northeast. The far north
could even have clouds scatter out for a time. But ceilings and
visibilities will trend down again late tonight and tonight as
the rain shifts back north over the area.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SYWW3 - Yacht Works Sister Bay WI 5 mi112 min E 13 G 22 36°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi62 min ENE 15 G 19 35°F 1026.1 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi62 min NE 12 G 17 35°F 1025.4 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi42 min NNE 12 G 15 33°F 1024.6 hPa (+0.8)33°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi62 min ENE 13 G 18 34°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgeon Bay, WI32 mi46 minENE 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast36°F32°F86%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N8N9N7N7N6N4NE5N6N9--N14N11NE9NE7NE9NE9NE10
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S9--CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N7
2 days agoNE6E4NW3NE6SE7SE4SE5E7SE6SE3SE4SE3SE4S4S5SE5S4S3S3S5S6S7S9S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.