Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:57PM Sunday April 30, 2017 11:51 AM CDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:24AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1013 Am Cdt Sun Apr 30 2017
.gale warning in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of today..NE wind increasing to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 35 kts by early afternoon. Waves building to 4 to 7 ft on the bay and to 6 to 9 ft on the lake. Showers likely.
Tonight..NE wind to 30 kts with gale force gusts around 35 kts...veering E late. Waves 4 to 7 ft on the bay...and 6 to 9 ft on the lake. Rain and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..E wind shifting S and diminishing to 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft on the bay...and to 4 to 6 ft on the lake. Scattered showers. A small craft advisory may be needed for the lake.
Monday night..SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering w. A few gusts to 25 kts possible. Waves 2 to 4 ft on the bay...and 3 to 5 ft on the lake. Rain showers likely.
LMZ541 Expires:201704302230;;509564 FZUS53 KGRB 301513 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1013 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-541>543-302230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 300854
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
354 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 350 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017
chilly and blustery with rain at times through tomorrow, then
drier weather with temperatures returning closer to seasonal
normals for the rest of the upcoming work week.

The large scale upper features across north america will become
progressive during the upcoming work week. They should migrate
about ohe-half wavelength downstream before locking into place
and amplifying into a blocking regime. The new pattern will
feature deep troughs/closed upper lows near the coasts with a
sharp mid-continent ridge in between--just the opposite of what
we've had for about the past 10 days.

A strong cyclone ejecting out of the plains will result in
another round of significant rainfall today through Monday night.

The developing northwest upper flow in the wake of the departing
cyclone favors lighter/more scattered-type rain events, providing
an opportunity for things to dry out some. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the start of the upcoming work week,
then closer to normal for the rest of the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Monday
issued at 350 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017
the main forecast issue continues to revolve around the details of
the precipitation forecast. Widespread convection to our south has
thus far intercepted much of the moisture surging north off the
gulf, allowing for only some small areas of light rain across the
forecast area thus far. Think the overall coverage of the rain
will gradually increase and advance farther north into the area
today, though there will certainly be dry periods across the area
as well. And there is still some question concerning when or even
if the rain can reach the far north today.

There should be an uptick in the precipitation this evening as the
main upper system begins to approach the area. The heaviest rains
should occur in advance of dry slot driving toward the area from
the south. Spread the chance for thunder northward with the main
rain band as some elevated instability will likely be present.

Rains will taper back to scattered showers after midnight across
the southern part of the area, and across the rest of the area
late tonight or early Monday.

The cyclone center will track across the area Monday, maintaining
periods of showers. The system will be stacked and weakening by
that time, and models are not very aggressive with cooling aloft
with the upper system, so kept the precipitation all liquid.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
issued at 350 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017
models remain in good agreement with the handling/departure of the
deep cyclone from the great lakes into southeast canada into mid-
week. The majority of models then show a gradual shift in the
large-scale pattern with a new upper trough moving into the
eastern pacific, the eastern pacific upper ridge shifting east
into the rockies and a downstream deep upper trough setting up
over the eastern CONUS late in the week. This pattern shift would
bring a NW flow aloft into wi and keep temperatures at least
slightly below normal through next Friday. Precipitation chances
would become more spotty, focused around Thursday as the upper
trough heads east.

The stacked system continues to track northeast toward eastern
lake superior/extreme southeast ontario Monday night. Rain showers
to persist over northeast wi for much of the night as a cold front
sweeps across the region in the evening, followed by a cool,
cyclonic flow around this system overnight. The main concern for
Monday night will be precipitation type as the cooler air wraps
into the forecast area. Anticipate snow to mix with the rain
north/parts of central wi toward midnight and persist in this
matter through daybreak. There could be a dusting of snow on
grassy surfaces across the north, otherwise rain amounts appear
light as deeper moisture to have moved either north or east. Min
temperatures to be in the lower to middle 30s north, middle 30s to
around 40 degrees south. The cool, cyclonic flow lingers across wi
into Tuesday, but in a weakening state through the day. Expect at
least a minimal chance of showers to persist (mixed with snow
early north), along with blustery west-northwest winds. Look for
another unseasonably cool day with MAX temperatures in the lower
40s far north-central (vilas county), to around 50 degrees south.

We finally get rid of the precipitation chances Tuesday night as
a weak area of high pressure moves into the western great lakes
region. The arrival of at least some drier air should be enough to
allow skies to become partly cloudy during the night. The break
in the cloud cover, coupled with light north winds, will send min
temperatures down in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees north,
lower to middle 30s south. This area of high pressure is expected
to slowly push across the great lakes on Wednesday and initially
bring a decent amount of sunshine to northeast wi. There might be
a gradual increase in afternoon clouds into central wi ahead of a
weak system dropping southeast toward the upper ms valley. More
sunshine should allow MAX temperatures to warm into the lower 50s
near lake mi, but mainly in the middle to upper 50s elsewhere
(still about 5 degrees below normal).

Clouds should continue to slowly increase over wi Wednesday night
with a small chance for light rain showers on Thursday. While this
little system has modest mid-level forcing, there are questions as
to moisture availability as a much larger system over the deep
south will tend to rob any potential inflow of gulf moisture from
reaching wi. Have kept a small chance pop in the forecast for
Thursday with MAX temperatures primarily in the upper 50s north to
around 60 degrees south, except middle 50s near lake mi.

Any light precipitation will come to an end Thursday night as the
shortwave trough pushes east. Another weak area of high pressure
is then forecast to move into wi later Thursday night and be
nearby on Friday. A return to sunshine and slightly warmer
temperatures aloft should bring MAX temperatures for Friday at
least close to normal levels for early may.

By the beginning of next weekend, the upper ridge is progged to
reach the eastern side of the rockies/high plains with building
upper heights across the central conus. Even though northeast wi
to still be in a northwest flow aloft, warming temperatures aloft
(8h temperatures in the +4 to +8c range) combined with sunshine on
Saturday, will bring surface temperatures to readings expected for
early may. This would translate to middle to upper 50s lakeside,
around 60 degrees north and lower to middle 60s south.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 350 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017
ceilings are expected to drop into the ifr or lifr category
across the area, though there is considerable uncertainty in how
quickly that will happen. Dry air feeding into the area on
northeast winds will act to slow the northward progression the of
low clouds, and the lack of a solid area of rain moving into the
area this morning will also work against conditions deteriorating
too rapidly. Will make a best guess at ceilings in the 12z tafs,
but those will probably still require refinement later today. Llws
is also expected early today and again tonight.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi51 min ENE 20 37°F 1020.3 hPa (-0.7)
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi71 min NE 14 G 21 37°F 1018.3 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi51 min NE 25 G 29 38°F 1017.3 hPa (-1.9)38°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi71 min ENE 12 G 22 39°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 34 mi61 min E 19 G 25 37°F 37°F5 ft1019.1 hPa (-2.8)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgeon Bay, WI32 mi55 minENE 14 G 202.50 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist37°F36°F96%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN16NE11
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1 day agoW9W9
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SW8SE7SE4S3CalmN4N6N9N8N14
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2 days agoW12W11SW15
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W12SW7SW8W8W10W9W10W8W9W11W12W12
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W11W10W11W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.