Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday March 23, 2017 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:10AMMoonset 2:09PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 336 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Sleet likely and a chance of rain early in the evening. Slight chance of light freezing rain through the night. Rain likely and a chance of sleet after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain and a chance of light freezing rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers likely with possible freezing rain, snow showers, sleet and freezing drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201703240345;;965340 FZUS53 KAPX 231936 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 336 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ342-240345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 231921
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Increasing chances of precip... Including freezing rain...

high impact weather potential... Areas of freezing rain developing
tonight into early Friday leading to some travel problems...

especially across eastern upper michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Large area of strong high pressure
continues to push east away from michigan... While low pressure
develops to the lee of the rockies. Southerly flow/waa in between
these two systems continues to strengthen across the plains...

mississippi valley and the western great lakes region. Moist return
flow within these areas produced an area of scattered light precip
across wisconsin... Which tried and failed to make it across lake
michigan into our CWA thanks to very dry air still entrenched across
much of michigan. Another large area of convection is developing
over minnesota and iowa... With additional convection extending thru
illinois... All of which is developing along and north of the
approaching warm front. This front will lift into lower michigan
tonight and will likely stall around the straits area on Friday. Low
level dry air will eventually give way to moist air surging
northward into the western great lakes region tonight... Leading to
increasing chances of precip across our entire cwa.

Model soundings still show the likelihood of mixed precip across our
northern cwa... Especially across eastern upper michigan which will
likely see a light mix of precip types... Including light freezing
rain... Beginning after 03z and continuing into Friday morning
(around 15z or so). In coordination with mqt... Will issue a winter
wx advisory for chippewa and mackinac counties for this timeframe
for mixed precip with the potential for ice accumulations of around
a tenth of an inch or so... Combined with some light snow and sleet
as well. WAA across the northern lower michigan should keep the
potential window of mixed precip relatively small... Only a few hours
during late evening and into the overnight hours. Will refrain from
issuing a headline for far northern and NE lower michigan for now
but will certainly keep a close eye on precip type trends thru
tonight. By 15z on Friday... All precip should have switched over to
plain rain as temps warm into the upper 30s and 40s.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Unsettled weather through the weekend, freezing rain for some...

high impact weather potential: freezing rain possibilities,
particularly for northeast lower and eastern upper, through the
weekend.

Pattern forecast: high pressure currently over the region will
continue to move off the atlantic coast as low pressure moves out of
the central plains and towards the great lakes. This will be a slow
moving, occluding low pressure system as the cutoff upper wave
weakens and begins to open. Strong return flow behind the departing
high and ahead of the approaching low will advect gulf moisture up
through the ohio valley and into northern michigan. Currently
progged pwat values in the range of .8 to 1" are impressive for this
time of year, well above 90th percentile. Meanwhile, high pressure
moving through northern ontario will be advecting cold air south,
with sub zero h8 temps pushing possibly as far south as the straits.

This should serve to stall the northern progression of the warm
front attendant to the approaching low, which looks to be just to
our south across central michigan.

Primary forecast concerns: where to start? That precipitation will
fall through the period seems a good bet as the slow moving system
takes it's time getting out of the area. The big issue will be the
low level temperatures, and the effect that will have on p-types.

The primary concern right now is the potential for freezing rain.

With the warm front setup to our south, and high pressure to our
north sustaining cold advection, the likelihood of freezing rain
somewhere is pretty high. The problem is with just how far north the
warm front can get, and how far south the low level cold air will
get. Given the location of the warm front, I think the southern
portions of the CWA are likely to stay all rain. But as you get
north of m-72, low level temperatures start to drop below freezing
with deep, mid-level warm layers as warm as 6c. And while low level
temperatures will fall as you go further north, the warm layer will
become less pronounced. Right now, favored areas for freezing rain
look to be in NE lower and eastern upper. While there will be a
general idea for freezing rain placement in the grids, it should be
considered just that at this juncture as just small changes in
temperatures will greatly impact the freezing potential. Saturday
looks like it could be a little more prolonged freezing rain
potential north of m-32, as the cold air makes it furthest push
south. This will just have to be nailed down more as it gets into
the near term.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
high impact weather potential...

a surface low passes south of the region and spreads a broad area of
precipitation across the area for Monday... With wrap around moisture
keeping pops in the forecast into Tuesday. Temperatures will be
running real close to climo, which should keep precip all rain. The
fly in the ointment could be as the night time diurnal swing brings
us close to the freezing mark, combined with CAA on the backside of
the low. That said... Confidence is higher toward a wetter solution
than whiter, as significantly drier air accompanies the cooler
air... Which comes in late Tuesday, along with high pressure at the
surface and lasts through Thursday. Based on what the ECMWF and gfs
are showing... I think temperatures could be cooler on Wednesday and
Thursday than what blended solutions are showing for the grids, but
that's a long way off yet.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 122 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
vfr conditions with bkn/ovc mid cloud CIGS will persist thru this
afternoon... But CIGS will begin to lower toward this evening as
low/mid level moisture increases ahead of low pressure developing
over the plains. Precip accompanied by MVFR/ifr conditions will
begin to develop across NW lower michigan by around 03z...

spreading eastward into NE lower michigan thru 06z. Precip type
will range from plain ra around mbl and tvc to fzra around pln and
apn where at freezing/below freezing surface temps will remain in
place thru much of the night. Llws will develop tonight as well
and will persist into early Friday morning.

Marine
Issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria for portions of northern
lakes michigan and huron thru much of tonight... And then diminish
below criteria by Friday. Chances of precip will increase tonight
for all nearshore areas... With some mixed precip possible across the
far north. Wx will remain rather unsettled thru the weekend... With
good chances of precip possibly mixed during the night.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Friday for miz008-015.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lmz345-346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mlr
short term... Alm
long term... Kab
aviation... Mlr
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi43 min SSE 5.1 G 15 38°F 1023.7 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi63 min ESE 2.9 35°F 1024.3 hPa (-2.7)15°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi45 min S 5.1 G 8 38°F 1023.5 hPa4°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
W9
W9
G12
W5
G8
W3
NW3
SW3
S2
SW3
S2
S3
SE3
SE4
S4
S5
G8
S9
S8
S9
S7
G11
S10
G14
SW6
G11
S10
G14
S12
SE7
G11
S5
1 day
ago
NW18
G25
NW15
G22
NW17
G22
NW12
G21
NW12
G17
NW12
G18
NW10
G15
N12
G16
N14
G19
N17
G25
N15
G19
N11
G15
N13
G16
N10
G14
N5
G8
NE7
G10
NE3
G6
E3
E4
NE5
N6
NW7
G12
W6
G12
W8
G11
2 days
ago
W9
G13
W5
G9
W4
G7
NW7
NW7
W5
W5
W5
SW4
W7
SW7
W5
G8
SW8
G11
W12
G16
W14
G19
NW11
G16
NW14
G24
W17
G24
NW18
G24
NW21
G27
NW15
G24
NW17
G27
NW18
G26
NW18
G23

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi68 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast39°F10°F31%1025.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi69 minS 510.00 miOvercast38°F9°F30%1024.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi68 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast39°F9°F30%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE3E4SE4E5CalmSE5SE5S7S8S7S5S8S5S8SE7
1 day agoNW14
G24
NW17
G25
NW18
G27
NW17
G24
NW16
G26
N18
G23
N14
G22
N14
G20
N15
G21
N13
G22
N15N12
G17
N11
G17
NE6NE8E5NE7NW3N6NW7N7NW6NW6W4
2 days agoNW3W3CalmSW3SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W8NW14
G18
NW7NW20
G24
NW15
G20
NW22
G28
NW16
G24
NW15
G25
NW17
G23
NW19
G25
NW18
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.