Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:15PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:55 AM EDT (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 346 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Patchy fog early in the morning. Isolated showers early in the morning, then again in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201905231600;;315941 FZUS53 KAPX 230746 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-231600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231028
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
628 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 207 am edt Thu may 23 2019
impactful weather: minimal. Showers and a few non-severe storms
departing east this morning. Gusty westerly winds developing today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
stacked low pressure was settles in mn early this morning, with a
warm front extending eastward into lake superior, and down more se
through the straits and lake huron. A nice little shortwave and
pocket of upper divergence from a 110+kt jet, combined with llj
theta-e forcing in 1.00 to 1.50" pwat air, had been resulting in
showers and storms across eastern upper over the last several
hours. The better storms were producing frequent lightning and
some likely hail as high as dime size, but nothing severe. Also,
there was a weakly defined pre-frontal trough seen on latest sfc
analysis, that was pressing into NRN lower, out ahead of the main
system cold front that was stretched from wi through the mid
mississippi valley and mo. This was resulting in additional
scattered showers and storm development. The air mass dries out
fairly significantly behind the pre-frontal trough, and certainly
behind the cold front, where pwats drop off to 0.60"-0.70". With
the upper sfc low itself, additional dpva wrapping around the
circulation, combined with low level convergence, was resulting in
periodic showers.

The convective activity has already exited eastern upper michigan,
while the showers and storms in NRN lower will take until a
couple-few hours after daybreak, at the latest, to depart east.

This is due to the exit of the aforementioned forcing mechanisms.

No severe storms expected. The air mass dries through morning as
the system cold front crosses, with typical cumulus development
expected into the afternoon, that may be enough to turn skies
mostly cloudy. The upper closed off low, opens up into this
afternoon and drifts more eastward, drawing in some of the
additional shortwave dpva and low level troughing convergence
across primarily eastern upper far NRN lower. This is likely to
bring some scattered shower activity, but very little in the way
of instability (less than 200-300j kg mucape) for any thunderstorm
chance. Outside of maybe some trapped moisture in the low level
for stratus into tonight, skies will trend toward clearing toward
daybreak Friday.

Highs today in the lower 60s in eastern upper, to the lower 70s in
downsloping regions of NE lower. The downsloping will be from gusty
westerly winds of 30-35 mph developing in the wake of the cold
front. Higher pressure builds in tonight, with light winds expected
by daybreak Friday. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid
40s. Could be chillier, but winds will still be going a bit just off
the sfc, keeping the bl churned up a touch.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 207 am edt Thu may 23 2019
high impact weather potential: a few thunderstorms remain possible
Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast: fairly active large scale weather pattern
continued across the great lakes region to wrap up the work week as
focus through the short term forecast period revolves around mid-
level energy that's expected to cut across the northern great lakes
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Attendant surface low pressure
will pass well to our west, however, will still be responsible for
for increased shower and thunderstorm chances at times through the
forecast period.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing shower thunderstorm
chances Friday into Friday night.

By early Friday, the next wave will be trekking across the northern
plains and upper mississippi valley. This wave will become the focus
for shower storm development locally despite the best mid-level
support passing well to our west. However, the arrival of deeper
moisture and enhanced upper level support will be enough to increase
shower chances from west to east as we head through the day Friday,
especially Friday afternoon, with this threat continuing Friday
night through early Saturday as the system's cold front sweeps
through the area. No glaring to remove thunder chances from the
forecast as there remains indications that a few embedded
thunderstorms will be possible by later Friday into Friday evening
as at least a few hundred j kf of MLCAPE nose their way into the
region. The primary severe weather threat looks to remain well off
to our southwest where better surface based instability and stronger
deep layer shear reside, although I wouldn't be completely shocked
to see a few better organized updrafts across sections of northern
michigan Friday night as 0-6 km bulk shear values creep up towards
50 kts locally... Though will likely be highly dependent on any
lingering instability after sunset.

Latest trends continue to suggest a cold front trekking west to east
across the forecast area Saturday morning, eventually yielding a
return to dry conditions for Saturday afternoon, which very well
could wind up being quite warm dependent on frontal timing and
lingering showers clouds.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 207 am edt Thu may 23 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

A return to generally quiet sensible weather conditions is
anticipated to wrap up the upcoming memorial day weekend, with
plenty of uncertainly with what happens following that. Some hints of
the next western wave arriving Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance
consensus blend continues to advertise this potential, and see no
reason to deviate from this idea just yet.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 627 am edt Thu may 23 2019
low pressure in mn will track eastward across lake superior today,
dragging a cold front across NRN michigan this morning. Ongoing
showers will depart NE lower apn into daybreak, with the
development of gusty westerly winds behind the system cold front
this morning. A period of MVFR CIGS will be right behind this
cold front, and then again for primarily pln later this afternoon
with additional scattered shower activity. All other airports are
expected to see low endVFR cumulus through the remainder of the
day. The air mass dries further heading through tonight, with a
definite clearing trend anticipated, as high pressure settles in
overhead. Despite the clearing trend, there are at least some
indications that some low stratus possible fog may develop.

Marine
Issued at 207 am edt Thu may 23 2019
low pressure in mn will track eastward across lake superior today,
dragging a cold front across NRN michigan this morning. Advisory
level westerly winds expected to develop most all nearshores,
possible. These winds weaken through the night as sfc high pressure
le continuing into this evening with choppy waves. Winds do weaken
through the night however, with the arrival of high pressure late
tonight into Friday. Winds will veer around out of the se, then
south late Friday, while ramping back up Friday night, in advance of
the next low pressure system. Overlake stability will be on the rise
with warming temperatures ahead of this next system, but seeing some
advisory gusts is not out of the question Friday night, especially
for lake michigan nearshore waters.

Showers and storms will be crossing lake huron this morning, with
maybe some gusty, erratic winds and small hail. The next chance for
showers and possible storms will be late Friday and Friday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345-346-
349.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 11 mi25 min W 12 G 14 45°F 38°F1 ft1009.7 hPa44°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi43 min WSW 9.9 G 14 56°F 46°F1008.6 hPa
45175 44 mi26 min NNE 12 G 12 45°F 45°F2 ft1009 hPa44°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi60 minWSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F51°F75%1009.8 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi60 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F50°F90%1009.1 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi59 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F51°F63%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E8SE11
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1 day agoN5NW4N6NW5N6N6N9N8NE5NE7E8E8
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2 days agoNW10
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N9N8W5W5W7SW5SW3CalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.