Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 5:23PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:33 PM EST (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 324 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201901200430;;611027 FZUS53 KAPX 192024 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 324 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-200430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 192359
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
659 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Near term
Issued at 402 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Coldest air so far this winter...

high impact weather potential: dangerously cold wind chills tonight
across much of the area.

Pattern synopsis forecast: first true round of arctic air now firmly
entrenched across the region. Northeast low level flow between
deepening lower ohio valley winter storm and elongated high pressure
across southern canada responsible for these very cold temperatures.

Current readings across northern michigan range from the low mid
single digits across eastern upper michigan, to the single digits to
middle teens for areas south of the mighty mac. While not terribly
strong, those persistent and at times gusty northeast winds are
definitely making it feel colder yet, producing wind chill values a
few degree either side of zero. Earlier batch of light snow tied to
that ohio valley low has moved out of our area. As expected, lake
huron contributions have been minimal with very shallow convective
cloud depths and very dry air rotating out of canada.

Biggest story as we head through tonight remains persistent cold air
advection as low pressure pivots up into the eastern seaboard. Sharp
shortwave trough pivoting across ontario will bring a reinforcing
shot of arctic air to be tapped, helping drop h8 temperatures to the
negative mid 20c by later tonight. Combination of these very cold
temperatures and maintenance of light north to northeast winds sets
the stage for some dangerous wind chill readings as we head through
tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: main focus remains on wind
chill readings tonight and attendant headline considerations.

Addressing snow accumulations with persistent light lake effect snow
showers remains a secondary concern.

Details: cold!! Northeast winds backing slowly to north overnight
will continue to usher in very cold temperatures. Source region for
this airmass is already impressively cold, with readings across
ontario in the teens below zero early this afternoon. Of course,
some modification will occur, but this airmass more than supports
guidance derived temperatures dipping several degrees below zero
tonight away from the big waters, with the coldest readings across
northeast sections of eastern upper michigan. Wind chill readings
will be several degrees colder yet, ranging from -20f to -30f across
those interior areas. Definitely dangerously cold temperatures, and
one supporting wind chill advisories for much of the area tonight
(extending into Sunday morning).

Second concern is lake effect snow showers as the over-water thermal
gradient remains extreme. Southern extent of that ontario wave does
bring a bit of a spike to convective cloud depths, reaching a bit
over 5kft across northern lake michigan. Despite synoptic wind
component, gotta believe breadth of inland cold air will result in a
bit of a land breeze development, focusing enhanced convergence
along the lake michigan shore from the leelanau peninsula south to
manistee by very late tonight (some suggestion this area of enhanced
convergence may stay just offshore). Airmass remains a very dry one,
leaving a pure lake effect environment to support snow
accumulations. In addition, extremely cold temperature profiles
support MAX lift focusing in temperatures too cold for good
dendritic growth. All told, could see an inch or two (locally higher
of course) of fresh snow by morning along that lake michigan coast.

Should also see lake effect snow showers of less organization and
intensity rotating into northeast lower michigan and up near
whitefish point in chippewa county.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 402 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

The coldest air of the season...

high impact weather potential... The coldest air of the season,
producing dangerous wind chills. Also an impactful snow storm
bringing possibly moderate snow amounts to E upper Monday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Winds maintain a N to nne direction
through Monday morning with the coldest air of the season. This will
produce snow bands over the middle of lake michigan, possibly on the
west side of the lake. Moisture through the period also begins to
diminish so that the 850-700 mb layer dries out to <40% by
12z mon. The sfc ridge is also expected to be over the lake by
that time as well. This will weaken the gradient and wind flow as
well. Monday morning with the cold, sub zero temperatures, and
winds around 10 mph, the wind chills will be in the advisory
criteria for E upper and N lower. However, by the afternoon the
winds have turned to the south and the "warmer" air begins pushing
into the region and the clouds increase. As the next system moves
closer, we could get into some light snow early as the GFS and
sref suggest, although the ECMWF hold the snow off until after
06z tue. By 12z tues the models are in agreement with the snow
moving into the region, and mainly the up.

Primary forecast concerns... The cold air seems assured, the only
issue there is the wind, and the extreme wind chills. Models with
the winds and temperatures suggesting -25f to -30f chills. So less
winds or or if there are more clouds, and warmer temperatures then
warmer wind chills.

The other issue is the lake bands off the lake shore Sunday morning.

If the land breeze is too weak, then the mid lake band may moves to
the east a bit, and it could cause issues near fks and mbl. But with
the models in the pretty good agreement, will expect that the land
breeze will form and keep the majority of the snow off shore.

One more issue is the onset of the snow on Monday night. Think that
the sref GFS idea has merit with the southerly winds and the 850 mb
temperatures cooler than -10c through 12z tues. Think that les out
ahead of the main warm advection wing is a distinct possibility.

So have low pops for the Monday evening to Tuesday morning time
frame, until the system snow catches up.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 402 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
high impact weather potential... A storm system that looks to impact
the region Monday night through Tuesday night, with lake effect into
Wednesday.

Extended (Tuesday through Saturday)... Models seem pretty good now
with the track over the region, so will looks like we should remain
solidly in the snow category for the p-type. The question is whether
there will be dry air for Tuesday morning in N lower. Put the pops
in for the snow as the GFS nam SREF say it is possible. Then the
heavier precipitation moves east, and les is on the backside of the
low as we go into Wednesday. The snow diminishes Wednesday night,
before a clipper system moves in Thursday. Friday, the upcoming cold
air which if the ECMWF is right would be even colder and could kick
off the upcoming below normal temperatures for february. With
Saturday lake effect snow probable as well. &&

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1238 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
lake clouds and periods of ifr producing snow showers will impact
kapn for the next few hours. Expect dry air to takes its toll
later today and this evening, ending the heavier snow threat and
lifting cigs. Lake clouds should also mix out at kpln this
afternoon. Approaching shortwave trough and backing low level
winds will likely bring MVFR to low endVFR CIGS back into kmbl
and ktvc by later tonight, and again across kapn toward Sunday
morning.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 654 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
vfr conditions will prevail at kpln through the 00z TAF valid
time, with minimal cloud cover anticipated. At ktvc, kmbl, and
kapn, predominantly MVFR lake effect clouds are anticipated,
although they may diminish at kapn as the low-level winds turn
more to the northwest. Lake effect snow showers are also likely
at ktvc and especially at kmbl into Sunday as bitterly cold air
flows across lake michigan.

Marine
Issued at 402 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
high pressure in central canada through the plains will
gradually work it's way over the great lakes Sunday night into
Monday. Advisory level northerly wind gusts are expected through
Sunday night for portions of the nearshore waters of lakes michigan
and huron, as strong low pressure lifts up the atlantic coast.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Sunday for miz008-015>019-
021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Monday for lhz348-349.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Sunday for lhz347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Sunday for lmz342-344>346.

Near term... mb
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Pb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi53 min E 8.9 G 15 6°F 1023.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi39 min ENE 8 G 12 4°F 33°F1023 hPa-25°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi37 minE 710.00 miFair4°F-6°F61%1023.4 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi37 minN 310.00 miFair-4°F-12°F68%1022.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair1°F-5°F74%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE9E7NE7E8NE9NE7
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1 day agoS4SW6NW12
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2 days agoNW4E3CalmCalmS4SE4SE3S4SE4SE5E3CalmSE5E5S3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE3SE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.