Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 6:45PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 341 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.gale warning in effect until midnight edt tonight...
Tonight..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots becoming west 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201710190345;;054505 FZUS53 KAPX 181941 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 341 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-190345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181915
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
315 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Near term (tonight through Thursday)
issued at 315 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Gusty winds through this evening...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong surface ridge axis extends from
quebec along the atlantic coast this afternoon. Strong area of low
pressure remains centered over central manitoba... With a trailing
cold front thru the upper mississippi valley into the central plains
states. Michigan is in between these two systems within a tightening
low level pressure gradient... Resulting in increasingly gusty S sw
winds across our region. Temps have warmed well into the 60s to near
70 degrees across our CWA this afternoon thanks to strengthening waa
via this S SW low level flow ahead of the upstream cold front.

Winds will continue to strengthen as we head into early evening...

with the strongest winds likely over eastern upper michigan and
along all of our lake michigan shoreline areas. Expect winds will
occasionally gust to 30 to 40 mph within these areas... But should
remain just below wind advisory criteria. Cold front will reach our
nw CWA by around midnight or so... And should clear our CWA by around
sunrise. The front will come thru dry due to lack of sufficient
moisture for precip production. In fact... Expect only a brief
increase in mid high clouds right along the front. Winds will shift
around to the west in the wake of the front and will diminish as the
low level pressure gradient loosens. Overnight lows will cool mainly
into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Thursday will be mainly sunny with
weaker winds a CAA begins behind the front. Temps will be cooler in
comparison to today... But will still be several degrees above
normal. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s in eastern
upper michigan to the mid 60s in our SE cwa.

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday)
issued at 315 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Mild to wrap up the week...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: rising heights aloft across the midsection of the
country Thursday night will lead to well above normal temps to wrap
up the work week into the start of the weekend as impressive late
season 580+ dm ridging becomes centered overhead Friday afternoon-
Friday night. Attendant surface high pressure anchored over the
tn oh valleys is expected to nose into michigan aiding to yield
continued precipitation-free weather with abundant dry low-mid level
air before a cold front and increased precip chances arrive Saturday
night-Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: somewhat breezy conditions
both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Mainly clear skies and diminishing winds Thursday night will lead to
efficient radiational cooling with lows dropping into the mid-upper
30s inland to the mid 40s near the big lakes. Heights rise aloft
Thursday night through Friday with well above normal temperatures
expected to prevail through at least Saturday. High temps both
Friday and Saturday ranging from mid-upper 60s across eastern upper
to the upper 60s-low 70s south of the bridge... Some ~15 degrees
above normal.

A bit of afternoon gustiness is expected Friday and to a greater
extent on Saturday as southwesterly flow ramps up ahead of an
approaching system set to arrive Saturday night into Sunday.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 315 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017
a cold front attendant to low pressure moving through hudson bay
will move through the region early in the week, ushering out the
ridging that has been in place. This will bring the next chance of
precipitation and a cooler airmass. This could bring a few flakes of
snow in colder areas of eastern upper and interior northern lower.

The magnitude of the cold airmass is still a little questionable,
and the temperatures are on the marginal side, so it could come in a
touch warmer and keep the precipitation all liquid. We will keep an
eye on how the handling of the cold air aloft evolves in the coming
days.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 100 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017
surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and into
this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. S SW winds will
gust to 25 to 35 kts... With llws developing between 00z and 06z
and winds just off the deck further strengthen just ahead of the
front. Winds will shift to the west behind the front... And will
diminish to 10 to 20 kts. Front itself will come thru dry... With
vfr conditions holding at all TAF sites thru the 24 hr forecast
period.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017
a moisture-starved cold front will sweep thru northern michigan
tonight. Winds and waves will continue to reach gale warning and sca
criteria ahead of this front thru this evening. Winds will diminish
a bit overnight in the wake of the cold front... But will still reach
sca criteria for all of our nearshore areas thru much of Thursday.

Only a brief increase in mid high clouds can be expected with the
passage of this front. Dry wx will continue thru the remainder of
the workweek.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for lhz345>348.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lhz349.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for lsz322.

Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lsz321.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Am
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 11 mi24 min SSW 19 G 27 67°F 60°F3 ft1013.4 hPa46°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi54 min SW 16 G 24 72°F 1012.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi46 min SW 14 G 24 69°F 1011.3 hPa32°F
45175 44 mi24 min SW 18 G 25 67°F 58°F2 ft1012 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Last
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W11
G15
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G18
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W12
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G15
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G17
W12
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NW15
G22
N11
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NW14
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N13
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N11
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N9
NE5
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G11
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G15
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G16
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SW6
G12
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SW11
G16
W14
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi40 minS 11 G 2410.00 miFair70°F45°F42%1013.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi39 minSW 15 G 2010.00 miFair69°F44°F41%1013.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi39 minS 12 G 1710.00 miFair71°F42°F36%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW6SW3S3S3S4S5SE7SE5S5S8S6S8S9
G14
S8S10
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S9
G14
S11
G18
S9
G19
S13
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S12
G19
S16
G27
S15
G21
S12
G19
1 day agoSW9
G18
SW9SW6S5S4S6S8S6S6S8S8S8S8S11
G19
SW11
G15
SW9SW8SW14
G19
SW13
G20
SW15
G20
SW11
G18
SW11
G16
SW11
G16
W7
2 days agoN17
G25
NW13
G21
NW14
G26
NW13
G20
NW11
G18
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G16
N9
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N6
G15
N6E5S4S3S4SE3S5S7SE5SE6S6S9SW8
G18
SW13
G19
SW13
G20
W13
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.