Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:53PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 746 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots early in the evening becoming variable 10 knots or less. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201903230800;;770609 FZUS53 KAPX 222346 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 746 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-230800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 222305
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
705 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 315 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Cold temperatures with diminishing winds tonight...

high impact weather potential... Low
primary forecast concerns... How cold it will get tonight.

High pressure and associated dry air centered to our northwest
will continue to sink southeast toward the region tonight. This
will result in clearing skies, diminishing winds and cold
temperatures. The light winds overnight in combination with mostly
clear skies and the lingering snow pack should lead to a decent
drop in temperatures. Lowered mins by at least a few degrees which
will range between the middle single digits above zero and the
middle teens. Some spots will likely be even colder than that.

In addition, keep an eye to the sky for a possible aurora... As a
solar flare starts to interact with the earth's atmosphere.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 315 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Heights aloft will rise Saturday morning
as upstream ridging nudges into the great lakes region. A deepening
trough dropping south from hudson bay combined with a closed low
ejecting from colorado will dampen the ridging as it approaches
michigan Saturday night. A strong cold front associated with the
hudson bay troughing will drop through northern michigan on Sunday,
while the colorado low is progged to pass through the ohio valley
Sunday night into Monday, likely with no impact to northern
michigan. Canadian high pressure and cold air advection will build
in from the north on Monday.

Primary forecast concerns... Small precip chances with Sunday's front.

Surface high pressure over the ohio valley will extend into the
upper great lakes on Saturday as upper ridging approaches. Resultant
subsidence combined with a dry airmass overhead will allow for cloud-
free skies. Plenty of Sun and weak warm air advection will nudge
temperatures a handful of degrees higher than Friday with highs
ranging from the mid 30s north to mid 40s near saginaw bay.

Mid high clouds will increase late Saturday night into Sunday as the
cold front drops south of lake superior. The front looks to be
somewhat moisture-starved, given that the surface low passing
through the ohio valley is progged to monopolize the higher regional
moisture to our south. Across northern michigan, pwats will
gradually decrease through the day on Sunday, generally around 0.4"
or less. Forcing along the front will be strongest as it drops
through eastern upper, gradually weakening the further south it
progresses. Thus, not expecting a whole lot of precipitation with
this front, and forecast soundings lend support to this with an
overall lack of deep layer moisture (generally limited to the lowest
5-10 kft). Precip should begin across eastern upper late Saturday
night into Sunday morning as a light mix of snow and freezing
drizzle, as low level moisture will come near or just shy of the -10c
isotherm to support ice nucleation. Surface temperatures should
quickly rise above freezing by late morning, so expect some spotty
light rain showers across northern lower as the front progresses
south. Any lingering showers may briefly transition to light snow
and or freezing drizzle Sunday evening before precipitation comes
to an end before midnight. Little if any ice accumulation expected
from any freezing drizzle. Much colder behind this front for
Sunday night (lows generally in the teens) into Monday (highs near
30 to mid 30s).

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 315 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Expansive surface high pressure drifting across the great lakes
region will provide fair weather through the first half of next
week. A noticeable warming trend will kick off through the second
half of the week as southerly return flow develops. This will lead
to a more active pattern and additional snow melt. The next chance
of precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday as a system
lifts through the region, followed by a more organized system on
Friday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 705 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019
vfr.

High pressure over northern mn and western superior is pushing
much drier air into northern lower mi. Could see a few shreds of
lake-induced stratocu in parts of NW lower mi tonight, butVFR
conditions will prevail. Little cloud cover on Saturday.

Nw winds will slowly become less gusty tonight. Winds will back to
the W and SW Saturday, increasing a bit again in the afternoon.

Llws may emerge Sat evening, just beyond the period of this taf
issuance.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019
gale force wind gusts are expected to continue across portions of
lake huron through this evening with small craft advisories
elsewhere. High pressure will then slowly diminish winds
overnight with lighter winds expected on Saturday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz348-349.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... As
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Jz
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi95 min NNW 17 G 21 30°F 1022.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi57 min 29°F 33°F1020.8 hPa-8°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Last
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SW10
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N2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi79 minNNW 810.00 miFair30°F19°F65%1022.3 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi79 minNW 10 G 1610.00 miFair30°F14°F53%1020.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi79 minNW 610.00 miFair31°F19°F60%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW3W10
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NW11N15
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmW3NW4NW4W6W5W8W7W8W7SW8SW8SW13
G17
SW8
2 days agoS6S6S6S9S9
G15
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G18
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S8S9S8
G14
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SW5CalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.