Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:03PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:43 AM EST (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 903 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am est Saturday...
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of drizzle. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201811171015;;418019 FZUS53 KAPX 170203 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 903 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-171015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 171005
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
505 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 306 am est Sat nov 17 2018
high impact weather potential: more light snow leading to slippery
travel conditions.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
lake effect snows were starting to redevelop get their act back
together after getting disrupted by last night's cold frontal
passage. The cold low level NW flow was cyclonic within a highly
sufficient delta t environment, while also starting to tap into the
better lake convection coming off lake superior. We were also seeing
some higher level clouds from an upstream shortwave, working across
lake michigan. The deeper moisture was still out to our west, and
the track of this system appears to be further south than previously
anticipated. Further out west, in south central canada and into the
dakotas, was a large expanse of sfc high pressure and relatively
drier air.

Most of the weather through tonight will occur this morning. The
cold low level flow will gradually become more unidirectional.

Tapping into the aforementioned better lake convection from lake
superior. This all occurs while the deeper system moisture
increases. Despite most if not all of the NRN fringe warm advection
light snows missing the gtv bay region to the south, there is still
some degree of expectation to energize developing snows over the
bay. Fcst soundings show that the mid level dry air shrinks to 5kft
or less to deliver at least a little feeding to lake effect. Doubt
the impact is going to be all that great, per latest hi-res qpf
guidance that is slightly less than seen in previous data sets.

Most all of this occurs this morning, before inversion heights
decrease from roughly 7kft to 5kft and the development of near sfc
layer drier air. Lake effect will diminish in intensity and
coverage. This process continues through tonight as the upstream
high pressure and even drier air start working into the area,
largely northern lower michigan. One minor exception may be for
chippewa county in eastern upper. Another weak shortwave is figured
to cross there tonight, possibly providing an slight uptick in lake
effect. Low level winds will be backing with time, pushing snows
north of the county.

Total snows today, 1-2 inches across chippewa county and the gtv
bay, with under an inch tonight. Highs will be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s and lows tonight in the teens to low 20s.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 306 am est Sat nov 17 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Low amplitude troughing continues over the eastern two thirds of the
conus with a persistent ridge in the west. On Sunday a subtle
shortwave trough crosses through ontario, spinning up a surface
reflection over the northern plains. There is some discrepancy in
forecast wind direction out of the west or southwest, so just have
low pops near the tip of the mitt Sunday morning. Drier air presses
into the region from the northwest, bringing a brief reduction in
snow chances through the day Sunday. Clouds thin out during the day,
with highs hovering a degree of so on either side of 30. As the
ontario shortwave pushes east it will drag a gradually weakening
cold front through NRN michigan through Sunday night. Profiles
moisten up from the top down heading into Monday as low level winds
switch around to the southwest. A surface low will slide east out of
the northern plains into the upper great lakes, providing synoptic
support for snow showers. Rh in the lowest levels stay at least 90%,
and overlake instability increases through the day as delta-t's
increase to 18 c in the evening. This increases pops for Monday,
although snow totals don't look too impressive.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 306 am est Sat nov 17 2018
forecast concerns: minimal.

General troughing remains over the great lakes region through
midweek. Another reinforcing shot of air comes Tuesday behind a cold
front. This front looks to stall out to our south Tuesday and return
northward as a warm front Wednesday, starting a warming trend in the
low levels. 850 temperatures start to climb quite a bit starting
early Wednesday morning... And rebound up above the freezing mark by
thanksgiving day, which could very well be quiet with highs finally
above freezing. Late week highs return to near normal for mid-
november, with chances of rain mixing in with the snow on Friday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 459 am est Sat nov 17 2018
cold conditions will lead to continued periods of lake effect snow
across mainly the NW lower airports. These snow showers will
gradually impact tvc pln through daybreak, but they will sink
southward and impact tvc mbl through the morning daylight hours.

MVFR CIGS with periodic ifr CIGS vsbys anticipated this morning.

Lake effect snows will diminish in coverage and intensity through
tonight, as higher pressure and increasingly drier air arrive and
send conditions to low endVFR.

Nw winds generally around 10 knots will swing around to out of the
wsw late in the taf. Maybe even a little gusty near pln toward
daybreak.

Marine
Issued at 306 am est Sat nov 17 2018
high pressure from the dakotas will drop into the central and
southern plains today through Sunday night. Current gusty advisory
level winds are expected to diminish through this morning. Will have
several areas that will be able to fall out of the headlines, but
now there are hints that several nearshore waters will see a return
to advisory gusts starting as early as late tonight, with all areas
seeing advisory gusts Sunday. This is due to the pressure gradient
re-tightening out ahead of a cold front that arrives Sunday night
into Monday morning.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until midnight est Sunday night for lhz347-
348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight est Sunday night for lmz323-
341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight est Sunday night for lsz321.

Near term... Smd
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi64 min NW 16 G 22 33°F 1021 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi44 min NW 11 G 15 30°F 39°F1019.7 hPa (+2.2)13°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NW13
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G18
N12
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E7
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SE8
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G10
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G9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi49 minWNW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast32°F22°F68%1021 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi49 minW 310.00 miUnknown Precip30°F27°F90%1019.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi49 minNW 310.00 miOvercast32°F22°F67%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S6SW4W11W13
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W16
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G21
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G17
1 day agoCalmSE3E3SE5S10SE8S7SE4S6S5SE7SE5SE4SE4SE4SE5S4S3S3S3SE4SE4SE5S5
2 days agoW11
G17
NW9
G17
NW9NW9NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE5SE6SE6E5SE5E4SE4SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.