Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:14AMSunset 4:52PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:51 PM EST (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:19AMMoonset 4:13PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 1037 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon, then isolated flurries in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of flurries. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201712162345;;982140 FZUS53 KAPX 161537 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1037 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-162345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161703
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1203 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Update
Issued at 1037 am est Sat dec 16 2017
strong high pressure remains centered north of lake superior late
this morning... With ridging building southward thru northern
michigan. Last vestiges of light synoptic snow is gradually
pulling SE out of our cwa... With a few NE flow lake flurries
lingering across far NE lower michigan. Expect these flurries will
continue across portions of NE lower michigan thru much of the
afternoon as over-lake instability remains favorable. However... Do
expect a diminishing trend as we head toward evening as much drier
low level air presses southward into our cwa. We will see one more
chilly day before temps begin to rebound on Sunday. High temps
this afternoon will warm into the teens and lower 20s.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 315 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Snow will continue to diminish...

high impact weather potential... None.

Last of the winter wx headlines will be cancelled shortly.

After a touch of northern mi ridiculousness over the past 24 hours,
our wx will trend toward the mundane side this period. High pressure
is nosing se-ward toward northern superior, feeding in drier air at
low levels, and veering and lightening 1000-850mb winds. Low
pressure is departing into SW quebec. The leftover baroclinic zone
is stretched out across the southern great lakes, and that boundary
is sharpening thanks to the high to our north, and low pressure in
the eastern dakotas. This attendant band of deeper moisture north of
the boundary will skirt by southern portions of the forecast area. A
weaker remnant moisture band will lift into northern lower mi
tonight. Precip trends are the main concern.

Lake effect snow continues to spool down, as drier air lower
inversions take a toll. Some snow showers could survive past 12z in
parts of western chip mack counties, and coastal sections of
northern lower mi. But otherwise the 1000-850mb winds veering
northerly and sharp anticyclonic curvature will tend to shut things
down pretty quickly. A swath of synoptic light snow downstate has
worked as far north as big rpds ludington. At least some chancy pops
are in order in far southern sections of the forecast area this
morning (mbl cad southern gladwin co). That will quickly depart to
the se, leaving a healthy amount of mid high clouds in much of
northern lower mi. Cloud cover will thin north of m-32 and
especially northern of the bridge, where some partly to even mostly
sunny periods are expected. No precip chances this afternoon.

Max temps from the lower teens in chippewa co to low mid 20s in the
far south.

For tonight, high pressure will slide a bit NE of georgian bay. An e-
w stalled front remains near the southern mi border. Isentropic
ascent across the front is unimpressive, but with the high sliding
off the east, door opens for mid-level moist band downstate to work
slowly northward. This seems rather unlikely to result in precip in
the vast majority of northern mi, as there is some dry air between
3k and 15k ft. However, light SE winds develop in the moist layer
from 3k ft on down. This is very shallow, so won't produce anything
terribly impressive, but could squeeze out some flurries downwind of
lake huron into parts of NE lower SE upper mi. Moist layer does
touch -10c, which makes flurries more likely than fzdz.

Min temps will range widely, from around 0f in much of chip co, to
the upper teens along part of the NW lower mi coast.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 315 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Still fairly quiet...

high impact weather potential: none.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: whether or not to include pops
Sunday.

A short wave moving through the flow may bring a few flurries light
snow showers to the region later Sunday into Sunday night.

Otherwise, the weather looks fairly quiet for a change. Milder with
highs in the middle 20s to lower 30s Sunday and the middle to upper
30s Monday.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 315 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Lake effect Tue then perhaps a bigger system Wed night-fri...

another short wave and associated cold front will move through the
region Monday night bringing a chance for a little light snow
(possibly even light rain near the lakeshores). Colder air behind
this system should restart the lake effect snow machine Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will end any remaining lake
activity Wednesday. Attention will then turn to the likely
development of low pressure in the plains which heads toward the
southern great lakes. Warm advection isentropic ascent driven snow
is expected to break out Wednesday night with synoptic moisture
arriving Thursday Thursday night... Possibly lingering into Friday
depending upon your model of choice (ecmwf remains the slowest).

Model trends are colder farther south so will have a mainly snow
scenario at this point. There is potential for several inches of
accumulating snow and will continue to advertise this in the
hazardous weather outlook. Another shot of colder air lake effect
likely to follow for next weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1203 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
aside from a few flurries here and there... Overall CIGS will
remainVFR to MVFR thru the 24 hr TAF forecast period as high
pressure and subsidence remain the rule. N to NE surface winds at
10 kts or less will become light variable tonight... And will then
shift to the SE on Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 315 am est Sat dec 16 2017
winds continuing to lighten up as high pressure approaches the
region from the nw. Winds waves will remain relatively quiet as
the high passes to our north, while winds steadily veer to the
east tonight and SE on Sunday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Jz
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi51 min NNE 8 G 11 15°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi51 min NE 7 G 11 16°F 1018 hPa (+1.4)8°F
TBIM4 25 mi61 min N 8 G 11 16°F
SRLM4 46 mi51 min N 8.9 8°F 32°F4°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi57 minN 1010.00 miOvercast15°F10°F80%1019.4 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi56 minN 05.00 miLight Snow12°F8°F83%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW556SW5W7W7W6W6W4W5W3W5W4W5W3NW5NW4N5N6N6N12N9N8N10
1 day agoW763S4CalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW5SW5S3SW3SW5S4S6S8S8S8S9S9S7SW7W11
2 days agoE5E4E3N4NW6N8N13N10N10N7NW6N7N10NW9NW4W8W4W6W7W6NW7NW8
G15
W9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.