Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:12PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 351 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..Light winds. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201805210730;;265364 FZUS53 KAPX 201951 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 351 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-210730-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 202300
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
700 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 316 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Frost expected tonight...

high impact weather potential: frost across eastern upper and a good
portion of northern lower michigan later tonight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: large area of seasonably chilly canadian
high pressure continues to build into the northern great lakes
region... Forcing active baroclinic axis further south with time.

Albeit somewhat delayed, low clouds managed to scour out earlier
today as northeast winds brought in increasingly dry air. Still some
passing higher level clouds, especially the further south one goes.

Combination of those clearing skies, increasingly dry low level air,
and light winds sets the stage for a late season frost for much of
the area tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature trends and
associated frost concerns attendant headlines.

Details: high pressure settles right overhead tonight, bringing
mostly clear skies and light winds along with it. As mentioned
earlier, low level moisture has started to aggressively dry out from
north to south, with dewpoints dropping into the 20s and 30s north
of m-68. This drying will continue to spread south the remainder of
this afternoon and evening, increasing the concerns for some chilly
overnight lows. Backward run trajectory analysis confirms latest
statistical guidance of dropping eastern upper and north
central northeast lower michigan well down into the frost-producing
30s by the early morning hours of Monday morning (similar to what
occurred northwest of lake superior last night). May even see a few
of our traditional ice box locations make a run to freezing, if not
even a smidge below. Expect a bit milder readings south of m-72
where moisture will be the latest to exit. All in all, really like
the look of inherited frost advisory, with no areal changes needed.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 316 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Chances of rain south of m-55 Monday...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: high pressure will continue to dominate northern
michigan's weather through Monday and beyond for most of the
forecast area. Models continue to hint at a another weak area of low
pressure over the ohio river valley Monday afternoon producing some
rain showers over the southern parts of the forecast area (mainly
south of m-55), where synoptic lift and deeper moisture coincide.

Will increase pops for those portions as all models have moved the
moisture synoptic lift farther north the past two runs. Clouds will
diminish late Monday night early Tuesday from north to south as high
pressure and drier air push in behind the departing aforementioned
low pressure system. Tuesday and Wednesday will be precipitation
free for the entire forecast area. Highs will be in the low to mid
70s Monday and then mid 70s to near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows
will generally be in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will continue to
remain on the light side through the forecast period as high
pressure is overhead and pressure gradients remain relaxed.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 316 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
high pressure continues over the great lakes region producing a
quiet, warm, and dry Thursday. Rain chances return Friday and last
through the weekend as long range models have consensus on an area
of low pressure meandering over the upper great lakes region. Won't
be a washout weekend, but will be partly to mostly cloudy with
periodic rain showers and possibly some thunder. Highs will be in
the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only in the upper 60s to low
70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
high pressure will maintain control across northern michigan
tonight into Monday. An elongated area of low pressure will lift
thru the ohio valley... With the northern edge of the associated
moisture shield reaching into central lower michigan by Monday
evening. Conditions will remainVFR thru the 24 hour TAF forecast
period... Although clouds will increase and CIGS will lower from
south to north on Monday. There is a small chance of showers
around tvc and mbl by Monday afternoon... But the chance is too
small to include in the TAF forecast for now. Light variable winds
tonight will become SE AOB 10 kts on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 316 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
no significant marine issues as high pressure brings light
winds for the next several days. Mostly dry conditions, although may
see a few showers across central lake michigan and lake huron Monday
and Monday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Monday for miz008-015>019-
021>024-027>030.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... mb
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Mr
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi51 min S 4.1 G 6 51°F 1021.7 hPa41°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi49 min S 5.1 G 5.1 51°F
45162 26 mi49 min S 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 44°F
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 35 mi79 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 41°F 37°F1022.4 hPa (-0.8)
SRLM4 46 mi69 min W 12 52°F 37°F32°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi75 minN 910.00 miFair61°F28°F29%1022.3 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi74 minNNW 410.00 miFair57°F30°F37%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW5NW7NW6NW4NW7NW8NW9NW6NW6N7N11NW7N8N9N5N8NW7N9N8N8N12N9Calm
1 day agoE5SE3SE7E4E5SE5SE5SE5SE6SE5E6E3E3E4NE6E5E3NE3W4W6NW4NW6NW9NW5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3E5E9E8E13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.