Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:16PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:57 AM EDT (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:52AMMoonset 5:26PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 354 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming variable 10 knots or less. Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201705231600;;066530 FZUS53 KAPX 230754 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 354 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ348-231600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230721
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
321 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 321 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Unsettled weather continues...

high impact weather potential... A few thunderstorms possible
today... No severe storms.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Elongated upper trough axis extends
from ontario/quebec back into the upper midwest. Weakish surface
low analyzed over southwest wisconsin... Coincident with region of
strongest qg-forcing for ascent... With an ill-defined surface
trough/warm front extending eastward into central lower michigan.

Broad plume of better moisture stretches from the plains into the
midwest/lower great lakes ahead of the low. A weak system
overall... But there are several pockets of showers across the
region and a few thunderstorms back through wisconsin within a
small area of steeper mid level lapse rates/instability near the
surface low.

Primary forecast concerns... Precip chances through tonight.

Upper trough deepens/closes off while migrating down through the
midwest/mid mississippi river valley through tonight... With a
deepening surface low developing down into kentucky/tennessee by
Wednesday morning. Lower michigan remains within a region of weak
but persistent qg-forcing for ascent through tonight. Meanwhile... Weak
low level flow across lower michigan... An inverted surface trough
stretching up through the state and lake breezes will lead to the
development of low level convergence axis stretching down through
interior lower michigan. Combine all that with some modest
afternoon/evening instability to get things going (a few hundred
joules of MLCAPE per forecast soundings) and it has the earmark of
some instability driven showers (and maybe some thunder) bubbling
up this afternoon and persisting into tonight... And particularly
through the inland higher terrain. No severe weather anticipated
with any thunderstorms... Given weak wind fields and very modest
instability.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 321 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Cool and showery conditions continue...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: the main feature expected to continue control
weather across the great lakes region through the midweek timeframe
is closed upper level low pressure, which is progged to spin
overhead through Thursday before gradually shifting toward the
eastern seaboard. Several weak shortwaves are expected to pinwheel
around the parent low bringing several rounds of scattered showers
both Wednesday and Thursday. There may be a brief reprieve from the
rain chances during the first half of the upcoming holiday weekend
before additional rain chances arrive from the west.

Primary forecast challenges/concerns: shower chances and below
normal temperatures.

A rather cool and damp pattern is expected to continue across
northern michigan through at least the middle of the week with
several waves of showers expected to transit the area and high
temperatures averaging several degrees below normal. As was
mentioned yesterday morning, neither Wednesday nor Thursday is
expected to be a complete washout as the best precip chances are
likely to be tied closely to separate waves of energy rotating
around the southern periphery of aforementioned cutoff low aloft.

Definitely not the pattern for widespread appreciable rainfall, but
more so the expectation is for waves of showers to dot the map at
various times. With that said, there's no way around that some
locations will do "better" than others with respect to qpf, but
certainly any rain is beneficial after a relative lack of precip
over the last couple of weeks.

High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday averaging several
degrees below normal ranging from the middle upper 50s to middle 60s
area-wide.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 321 am edt Tue may 23 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Diminishing shower trends are expected Friday into the first half of
the upcoming memorial day weekend as a weak bubble of high pressure
skims the region. Uncertainty increases Sunday through Monday as
guidance spread remains significant in terms of rain potential, but
it's safe to say that the second half of the holiday weekend has the
potential to be more active than the first half. To what extent any
rainfall will hamper outdoor holiday plans/festivities remains to be
seen and is worth checking later outlooks as guidance comes into
better agreement. High temps expected to be near to a couple of
degrees above normal throughout the extended, varying from the upper
60s to low 70s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1150 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
a weak area of low pressure and warm front will lay out in nrn
michigan overnight, while sfc based moisture increases some. Areas
of fog still expected to break out, especially where rain fell
(mainly pln). Confidence rather low on how bad the vsbys will be.

A cold front then pushes into the region tomorrow afternoon for
another round of potential showers into Tuesday evening, with
winds turning more out of the n/nw. However, a weak pressure
gradient will more likely lead to onshore lake breezes.

Marine
Issued at 321 am edt Tue may 23 2017
relatively light winds/waves anticipated through midweek with no
marine headlines. Periodic showers will impact the marine areas
through Thursday.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Tba
short term... Mjg
long term... Mjg
aviation... Smd
marine... Tba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 47°F 1010 hPa42°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi27 min 49°F
TBIM4 25 mi37 min S 2.9 G 2.9 46°F
45162 26 mi37 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 47°F
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 35 mi67 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 38°F1 ft1010 hPa (-2.2)
SRLM4 46 mi57 min WSW 8.9 49°F 45°F46°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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G21
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair42°F41°F96%1010.8 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi62 minN 310.00 miFair45°F43°F94%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW7SW7SW9SW14
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W6CalmSE4SE4NW4N8S5CalmCalm
1 day agoSE9E11
G20
SE9E6E6SE8SE6E10E7E6E4SE5SE5E3SE7SE4N8N4CalmCalmCalmSW5SW8
G16
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2 days agoE7E9E11E12E12E14SE12
G18
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E15E11E8E8
G15
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E13SE10SE11
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SE8SE10E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.