Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:39PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 10:45 AM EST (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 201432
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
932 am est Tue feb 20 2018

Synopsis
Unseasonably warm, near record setting temperatures are
expected across the area through Wednesday along with periods of
showers or light rain. A cold front will swing south through
the area Wednesday evening with cooler temperatures in its wake
for late week. An active weather pattern continues into the
upcoming weekend with renewed chances for light rains and snows.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 923 am est Tuesday... Overall forecast in good shape this
morning with current radar showing bands of light to moderate
rain moving from the slv western dacks into extreme northern vt
along a warm front. This boundary will continue to slowly lift
north of our CWA by this afternoon... Along with the best
moisture and 5h... So expect the areal coverage of precip to
decrease. Temps are tricky this morning with low level cold air
trapped east of the greens with readings only in the 30s with
fog... While parts of the western dacks cpv are in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Already 54f at the base of whiteface
mountain... With 48 at lake placid... While pbg is 38f. Have
adjusted to capture latest temp trends and added areas of fog
for parts of central eastern vt and northern ny.

Sfc obs and radar estimates show between 0.25 and 0.75 has
fallen across the slv and parts of the northern dacks. This
rainfall combined with very warm temps... We expect to start
seeing rises on the ausable and salmon rivers shortly. Given
cooler temps and less rainfall so far over vt... River rises will
occur later this evening into the overnight hours.

Prior discussion... The overall forecast picture remains largely
unchanged over the next 42 hours as a dominant +590 dm
subtropical ridge centered between bermuda and the northern
bahamas controls the deep-layer synoptic flow across the eastern
third of the nation. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will advect
an unseasonably mild airmass into the region beginning today and
persisting into early Wednesday afternoon. Numerous showers
with periods of light rain will continue across central and
northern counties today, lifting slowly north to the intl.

Border and northward tonight into Wednesday morning as a strong
warm front lifts through the area. Back trajectory analysis at
500m suggests source air this afternoon originated across the
northern gulf coast states yesterday, with tomorrow's air
wrapping around the ridge from the subtropical atlantic near
grand bahama island. With mean 925 mb temperatures surging above
+10c a period of extreme warmth by february standards will
evolve during the period. Highs today should mainly top out in
the 50s, with a few spot 60f readings in the southern st
lawrence champlain valleys and a few upper 40s in far
northeastern vt and near kmss. Wednesday will be a record-
setting day as 925 mb temperatures surge into the +12 to +15c
range, pushing highs into the 60s to locally near 70f. If kbtv
can surpass 62f (i currently have a high of 69f) it will be the
second warmest february temperature on record, surpassed only by
the 72f set just last year! I wonder what the statistical odds
of that happening in the queen city's 134 year period of record?
as the temperatures warm a surge of higher dewpoint air, (upper 40s
to lower 50s) now poised off to our southwest across western ny pa
will advect northeastward into our area fostering a period of rapid
snowmelt and robust river rises. By later Wednesday most, if not all
snow cover below 2000 feet should be essentially erased leading to
heightened concerns over ice breakup on area rivers. Given the broad
consensus in the guidance the flood watch remains in place with this
package (see hydro discussion below).

By Wednesday afternoon the surface boundary will swing southward
through the area as a cold front. The baroclinic zone with this
feature is quite sharp, so hourly temperature drops could be quite
noticeable within the hour of its passage (> 10f). Scattered to
numerous showers will drop south into the bulk of the forecast area
during this time, through trend more scattered in nature as one
progresses toward early evening winds veer to northwesterly.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 400 am est Tuesday... The cold front will exiting
southeast vt at the start of the short term period with any
lingering light showers tapering off by midnight. Despite strong
cold advection and temperatures falling into the 20s by
Thursday morning, rivers will be still running high and cresting
Wednesday evening but a few of the slower responding rivers may
still be rising overnight and not crest til Thu morning.

On Thursday, the frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary over
the mid-atlantic region as it runs into the anomalously strong
ridging over the southeast. A weak wave aloft and surface low
will move along the front on Thursday and develop some light
overrunning precipitation with the west southwest flow aloft.

Ecmwf, cmc, and SREF mean are furthest north and most bullish
on QPF with a tenth to quarter inch in southern vt and as far
north as mpv btv, while nam GFS keep it south of the region with
little more than flurries or sprinkles. For now just keeping a
chance of light snow or mixed wet snow light rain in the
forecast with the split in the model solutions. Temperature
profiles mostly cold enough for snow though the lowest valley
locations may have some light wet snow or light rain mixed in
with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Perhaps the
models will come into better agreement today.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 400 am est Tuesday... Slightly cooler but still warmer
than normal conditions will prevail through early next week. The
region will also remain in an active pattern with a fast wsw
flow aloft as southeast ridging continues to dominate aloft. The
first in a series of low pressure systems will bring a mix of
rain and snow to the region Friday afternoon into Friday night,
followed by another late Sat night and Sunday. Although there
are slight differences in the tracks of each of these lows,
overall it looks like temperatures will be cold enough for some
snow especially in the higher elevations and northeast vt, but
temperatures will be marginal so some valley mix or change to
rain look likely. Latest indications is the system on Sunday
might bring some stronger and gusty southeast winds. High
temperatures will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with
lows in the 20s through the period. Later next week things look
quite interesting with the development of a blocking pattern
with cutoff lows and highs, something we haven't seen in a
while.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 12z Wednesday... Conditions have continued to deteriorate
overnight and early this morning and should continue to do so
through 18z to 21z. The worst conditions will be observed over
northern new york where colder temperatures at the surface have
created a low-level inversion and trapped moisture right off the
surface. Kmss will be the first to gradually improve after 21z
but kslk will likley remain ifr through much of the forecast
period. Kbtv remains the stubborn site this morning as nice
cross-barrier flow over the adirondack mountains continue to
hinder the development of ceiling below 2800 ft. As moisture
continued to advect northward today, ceilings will gradually
fall below 2kft for a brief while before steadily improving
during the evening. Kmpv and krut have seen fog with
visibilities 1 mile or less but these conditions should improve
throughout the day but should see increasing ceilings and vsbys
by late morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance sn.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. Chance ra.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance sn,
chance shsn.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Hydrology
As of 245 am est Tuesday... A 42-hour period of anomalously warm
temperatures will affect the region through Wednesday
afternoon. Periods of rainfall, modest winds and dewpoint
temperatures climbing into the 40s to lower 50s will foster
rapid snowmelt and ice break-up across the entire area. Also
boosting confidence are extremely high thawing degree hour
totals - averaging 900 to 1200 over the period. The model
consensus shows rainfall totals averaging from 0.5 to 1.50
inches across far northern vt into the northern adirondacks and
st lawrence valley with the highest totals in the latter
location. Lesser amounts generally under a half an inch are
expected across central and southern vt. Taking this all into
account, modest to substantial river rises look highly probable
starting this afternoon and continuing into Wednesday, supported
by naefs SREF mmefs hydrograph data. While widespread open
water flooding is not expected, several rivers may approach
minor flood including the ausable r. At au sable forks, ny,
missisquoi r. At north troy, vt and the winooski r. At essex
junction, vt. More importantly, numerous ice jams remain in
place from the substantial thaw this past january so the
potential for localized high water and or flooding near these
features remain a real threat as ice break- up occurs.

Climate
Here are the current record high temperatures for february 20th
and 21st:
record high temperatures:

Feb 20th... .Feb 21st... .

Btv... ... ... ... .58 (1981)... 59 (1981)...

mpv... ... ... ... .56 (1994)... 57 (1953)...

mss... ... ... ... .63 (1994)... 62 (1953)...

st. Johnsbury... 60 (1981)... 62 (1981)...

record high-minimum temperatures:

Feb 20th... .Feb 21st... .

Btv... ... ... ... .50 (1981)... 49 (1981)...

mpv... ... ... ... .47 (1981)... 47 (1981)...

mss... ... ... ... .47 (1994)... 41 (1981)...

st. Johnsbury... 40 (1981)... 46 (1981)...

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Flood watch through Wednesday evening for vtz001>012-016>019.

Ny... Flood watch through Wednesday evening for nyz026>031-034-035-
087.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg taber
short term... Sisson
long term... Sisson
aviation... Clay
hydrology... Team btv
climate... Team btv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi45 min 34°F 1018.8 hPa (-0.5)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi52 minENE 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F36°F100%1020.3 hPa

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Last 24hrS14SW12
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SW6SW6SW4CalmCalmS3NE4CalmNE4NE4N5NE6NE5E4NE5NE4NE4E6E7NE9NE10E7
1 day agoW8W10W11W8SW11SW9SW8SW8SW7S9S8S7CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN3NE4NE4N3CalmCalmS4
2 days agoSW12S6SW9S9SW5CalmNE4N4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW4SW6SW5SW7SW7SW9W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.