Friday, March22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:18PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:25 AM EDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:27PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201812311615;;630280 Fzus61 Kbuf 311142 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 642 Am Est Mon Dec 31 2018 Slz022-024-311615- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 642 Am Est Mon Dec 31 2018
Today..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers late.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rain and snow showers through the early overnight, then rain showers late.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain during the day, then a chance of snow Friday night. The saint lawrence seaway is closing to navigation for the season today. Therefore, the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 221128
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
728 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

A late season winter storm will affect the area through
Saturday morning with valley rain and snow, and heavier mountain
snows. Mainly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday
before a cold front ushers in much colder air for Monday into
Tuesday of next week. By later in the work week temperatures
moderate considerably.

Near term through tonight
All winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain
in effect for through Saturday morning...

as of 710 am edt Friday... The forecast remains on track in
regard to temperatures dewpoints and expected overall rain snow
totals as of 700 am. I did adjust pops somewhat to incorporate
latest hrrr guidance which is handling the current evolution of
pcpn pivoting north and west across our area better than prior
guidance. This shows some waxing waning of coverage through the day
as primary system consolidates offshore. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...

mainly a persistence forecast in regard to the overall weather
theme over the next 42 hours as deepening coastal low pressure
lifts northeast through the region. Still a complex evolution of
this system as competing upper closed lows consolidate over
time while current surface center near kacy transfers energy
further east near the benchmark which will take over as the
primary. A such most of the forecast effort overnight was to
tease out small scale details in p-type pop wind fields. Our
idea of increasing coverage of valley rains or mixed rains snows
and higher elevation snows today still looks good with highest
probabilities of accumulations generally above 1000 feet. The
devil lies in the details of course and given p-type will be
heavily governed by near surface temperatures any dynamical wet
bulb cooling processes could cool values just enough to cause
some variability at times in the valleys. Similar to last night
i leaned on the colder side of guidance and have a hard time
buying met mav guidance showing temperatures rising into the
lower 40s for example at kbtv on developing northerly flow this
afternoon. Used a multi-model blend including some raw model
output and 20% of our prior official data to yield highs ranging
through the 30s today depending on locale.

By later this afternoon and especially into this evening the now
consolidated and fairly deep surface low center will be pushing into
the gulf of maine or near the maine mid-coast. This will allow back
side deformational processes to blossom while winds trend
north northwesterly and increase steadily under a tightening
pressure gradient. Surface temperatures will begin to slowly cool
allowing a transition to all snow over time. As the night progresses
the snowfall will take on an orographic character as the surface low
begins to pull slowly away and become heavier at times. Our
messaging continues to highlight this period (600 pm to 800 am) as
the most impactful when the combination of moderate to locally heavy
snow and gusty winds lead to difficult travel and isolated power
outages. Our storm total snowfall was modified slightly to show a
sharper orographic character but the overall idea remains the same
with advisory areas seeing 2-7" and warning areas receiving a
general 6-12". The northwestern slopes of the adirondacks and spine
of the greens should see the heaviest totals from 10-18". Low
temperatures again a blend of guidance similar to that used for
today's highs - upper teens to mid 20s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 345 am edt Friday... On Saturday occluded surface low
pulls away fairly quickly given the lack of downstream blocking
and progressive nature of the upper flow pushing in from the
west northwest. Steadier light snows early taper off by mid-day
if not sooner with skies trending partly to mostly sunny from
mid afternoon onward. Highs will be on the chilly side from the
upper 20s to mid 30s under an abating but still gusty northwest

Quiet weather then returns for Saturday night into Sunday as surface
high pressure builds to our south and synoptic flow trends
southwesterly over time. Low temperatures to bottom out in the upper
teens to mid 20s (near normal) with highs on Sunday returning,
albeit briefly, to milder levels in the 40s. By later in the day on
Sunday a strong polar front will approach the region from the north
along with increasing clouds and chances for rain snow shower

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 am edt Friday... A cold front moves southward from
canada into the region Sunday night rather quickly and is south
of the CWA late Monday morning. Precipitation will be light and
scattered and mainly across northern counties with a mix of rain
and snow showers early on depending on elevation before
trending to all snow early Monday morning. QPF will not be
significant with up to a tenth of an inch of precip with an inch
or so of snow in the north to a trace in the south. Mountains
could be a bit more with a few inches of snow possible. High
temps will be in the 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold and dry as a canadian airmass
moves south under high pressure and northwest flow aloft. Skies will
be mainly sunny but highs will in the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue and a
bit milder on Wed with highs mostly in the 30s. The coldest morning
looks to be Wed with lows from 5 to 15.

An upper level ridge moves across the region late Wed and into thu,
which will bring a reprieve from the cold as temperatures return to
seasonal levels by Thursday with highs in the 40s near to near

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Through 12z Saturday... A mix of MVFR to lifr currently across
the cwa. We will see a trend toward more widespread ifr lifr
cigs vsby after 15z. N-nw winds will increase to around
10-12kts areawide Friday afternoon and then see gusts of
20-25kts and some isolated 30kts after 21z. All stations can
expect periods of brief heavy snowfall which will bring
conditions to lifr. Anticipate increasing impacts to aviation
ground ops from the middle of the of the TAF period onwards
(late aftn- eve Friday through Sat morning).


Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. Chance shra.

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for vtz003-004-

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for vtz001-002-005-009-011.

Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for vtz007-008-

Ny... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz029>031-

Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for nyz026-027-087.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for nyz028-035.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg
short term... Jmg
long term... Verasamy
aviation... Verasamy

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi43 min 36°F 1000.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi32 minN 04.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F36°F100%1001.5 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6SE4SE8S7S8SW11SW6SW4CalmE3CalmCalmS7S5S5SE4S3SE5SE3SE4CalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoS6S8SW12SW14
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm4SW4W7W8SW11W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.