Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chateaugay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 8:49PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:19AMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1005 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers from late morning on.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chateaugay, NY
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location: 45.41, -73.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 272340
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
740 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
The showers and thunderstorms end tonight and much of the area
will be dry on Wednesday with just the possibility of some
showers up along the international border. Below normal
temperatures will continue through midweek but a warmer and
wetter pattern sets up for the rest of the week and into the
weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 722 pm edt Tuesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are winding down across the area. Better dynamics seemed to
flare up the storms a bit, but with loss of daytime heating
should see storms ending. Previous discussion follows.

The radar continues to see scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the north country. The lack of much surface instability
has limited how tall the storms have been capable of growing
however with low freezing levels and advancing cold pool aloft
anticipate a continued small hail threat through the evening
hours.

The showers will end this evening as we lose what little diurnal
driven heat warmed the area to the upper 60s. High pressure will
build in behind the upper level shortwave as it exits the
region this evening and Wednesday. There may be some residual
energy that holds on along the international border so I could
see some isolated showers that develop in the afternoon but
otherwise it should be a pleasant day tomorrow with highs in the
lower 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 233 pm edt Tuesday... As the weak ridge continues
to build into region anticipate any residual showers to come to
an end. With high pressure aloft it should be a relatively
quiet night. Unfortunately that quiet weather will end as we
start to see a return towards a more active period. Low pressure
moving through the great lakes will push a west east oriented
warm front over the region. Showers develop along the boundary
across northern new york during the morning, and become
widespread across the entire forecast area through the afternoon
and into Thursday night. Composites charts indicate that the
combination of forcing lift shear instability isn't quite
aligned so we may or may not see much widespread thunder.

However given continuity I went ahead and continued to include
mention of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday generally along
the southern tier where instability will be highest.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 233 pm edt Tuesday... As we head into the weekend the
biggest threat will be the continued active weather. We are
currently already an 1.5 inches above normal for the month and
nearly 6 inches above normal of precip for the year. With
continued active weather and more rain on the way hydro impacts
come straight to my mind. Friday night and Saturday will see
several waves of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal
boundary to our west will provide ample instability for showers
and thunderstorms along with additional moisture and pwats
surging to 1.5-2". While the exact timing of each individual
wave is difficult at this time, confidence is high we'll see
periods of heavy rain with rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range
on top of the 1" we're likely to see on Thursday. Considering
how wet area soils are already, this could be the tipping point
to realize flash flood potential and bears watching through the
week.

Sunday remains showery, especially across northern areas as the
parent upper trough and surface cold front look to swings through
the region, with quieter and drier conditions expected Monday post
fropa.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 00z Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue moving southwest to northeast across the entire area
until 02z. These storms will have the potential for gusty winds,
generally up to 20-30kts and small hail. Visibilities in the
strongest storms will drop to 3-4sm and have mainly covered this
with tempos. So i've continued the previous forecasters idea
using a tempo group to handle the storms with vicinity showers
elsewhere and amendments for TS when needed. Any showers and
storms will quickly be ending between 00z and 04z. ExpectVFR
conditions through the period... With localized MVFR ifr
conditions near the showers and storms and possibly some br at
slk tonight. Winds will generally be from the south and
southwest through the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. Likely shra.

Thursday night: MVFR. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Friday:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Friday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Saturday night:VFR. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Sunday:VFR. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Deal
near term... Deal neiles
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Deal neiles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 97 mi67 min 61°F 1012.1 hPa (+0.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT54 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair58°F56°F96%1011.8 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmS4S5S6S5S9
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1 day agoCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmW3CalmW3SW3W5NW6W4CalmCalmNW4SW7CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4S4SW6SW5SW4W3N4CalmN3E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.