Friday, January19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Mooers, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:46PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:24 PM EST (23:24 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mooers, NY
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location: 45.42, -73.82     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 192013
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
313 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

A weak warm front will lift northeast across our region tonight into
Saturday with warmer temperatures and breezy southwest winds.

Localized wind gusts to 30 mph are expected over the saint lawrence
and champlain valleys with temperatures warming into the mid 20s to
lower 30s overnight. This front will push back south on Saturday as
a cold front with additional clouds and cooler temperatures. A few
mountains snow showers with a light accumulation is possible. The
next chance for a wintry mix will be late Monday into Tuesday.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 312 pm est Friday... Forecast challenge tonight will be temps clouds
and developing gusty winds. Water vapor shows mid level
moisture streaming from the northern great lakes into the ne
conus with weak embedded 5h vort in the flow aloft. Surface
analysis places weak ridge over mid atlantic states with
developing brisk southwest flow across the central eastern great
lakes. Expecting a weak surface warm front to lift across our
cwa tonight... Along with a ribbon of 925mb to 850mb winds of 45
to 60 knots. Soundings show limited mixing potential at
night... Along with shallow inversion... So thinking best chance
of seeing localized gusts to 30 to 35 mph will be slv cpv and
parts of the dacks. The better mixing should help to increase
cig levels with some clearing skies likely by Saturday
morning... Upstream vis satl pics support this thinking. Temps
with clouds winds will remain steady this evening... Before
slowly rising overnight... But upstream obs are only in the upper
20s to mid 30s. So warm up will be slow.

Saturday... Warm front stalls near the international border... Before
dropping back south as a cold front during the late morning hours.

Gfs NAM show a very tight and complex 925mb to 850mb thermal
profiles across our cwa... Making for a challenging temp forecast. In
addition... Soundings show plenty of low level moisture developing
especially over northern ny and parts of northern vt btwn 18z-21z
sat. This increasing moisture clouds... Along with low level CAA and
limited mixing makes for a tricky temp forecast. Have noted both the
met mav are in mid 40s here at btv... But thinking this is too
high... So have trimmed back temps. Highs mainly in the mid 30s to
lower 40s... However if we get more Sun than anticipated expect mid
40s cpv. A few light mountain snow showers possible over the dacks
into northern vt mountains... But deep layer lift and moisture is
minimal... Any accumulation will be light. A mild night is
anticipated on Saturday night with temps in the 20s and light
west northwest winds. A few lingering mountains snow showers are
possible with plenty of clouds prevailing.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 245 pm est Friday... Sunday and Sunday night will remain
relatively quiet, with temperatures continuing warmer than
seasonal normals and a chance for some light snow showers along
the international border with a shortwave crossing the region as
well as a weak cold front. Maximum temperatures on Sunday will
be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and minimum temperatures Sunday
night will drop back into the teens and lower 20s.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 243 pm est Friday... Monday through Tuesday night will be
mild and feature a large scale system impacting the north
country. We'll likely see all precipitation types with this
system as warm air advection out ahead of the system sets us up
with temperatures warm enough for some rain. Monday will be warm
with rain showers moving into the area during the afternoon.

Temperatures will reach the lower to mid 30s, warmest in the
saint lawrence valley on southwesterly flow. Large vertically
stacked low pressure system lifts from the central plains Monday
morning northeastward and will be centered over the southern
great lakes by Tuesday morning. The GFS continues to be a bit
faster with this system than the ecmwf, but models are in decent
agreement for this far out. Warm air advection Monday and Monday
night, will be followed by a strong cold front Tuesday afternoon
or evening. Still looks like cold air at the surface will be
tough to scour out, so we will likely see mixed precipitation
areawide. Mix of rain snow sleet and freezing rain from Monday
afternoon right through Tuesday morning, then temperatures will
be warm enough to change precipitation to all rain on Tuesday
before a change back to snow showers Tuesday night as the
precipitation ends. Overall, not the same amount of warm air
ahead of this system, nor rainfall expected with this system so
not as impactful. Still a system to watch and details will
become more clear as we get closer to Monday and Tuesday. Still
several ice jams in place, see pns, so we of course will
continue to monitor. Weather will then be quiet with mainly high
pressure overhead for Wednesday and Thursday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Through 18z Saturday... Conditions vary between MVFR at slk mpv
andVFR at mss btv pbg and pbg. Based on upstream obs and rap
sounding data, expect periods of ifr CIGS to develop at slk this
aftn... Before slowly lifting to MVFR again this evening.

Elsewhere... Soundings show plenty of low level moisture in
developing southwest low to mid level flow... Resulting in mainly
vfr CIGS at pbg rut btv with lingering MVFR at mpv. Low level
jet of 45 to 60 knots develops overnight into early Saturday
morning... With localized gusts btwn 25 and 30 knots likely at
slk mss and btv. Elsewhere... Low level wind shear with areas of
moderate turbulence can be anticipated overnight into Saturday
morning. MainlyVFR conditions Saturday will trend toward MVFR
and eventually ifr CIGS by 00z Sunday.


Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shsn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance sn.

Monday night: MVFR and ifr. Definite sn, definite ra, definite
pl, definite fzra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Taber
near term... Taber
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Taber

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT51 mi29 minS 610.00 miOvercast27°F19°F75%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.