Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Mooers, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:49PM Monday June 26, 2017 11:45 PM EDT (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 10:54PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1029 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers early...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mooers, NY
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location: 45.42, -73.82     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 270036
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
836 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wane across
the area this evening, though reblossom in earnest on Tuesday as
vigorous upper energy pushes into the area. After a mainly dry
Wednesday, unsettled weather returns for later in the week and
into next weekend. The potential for some heavier rainfall will
exist, especially by next weekend as a front lingers in the area
and conditions trend warmer and more humid.

Near term through Tuesday night
As of 715 pm edt Monday... Have updated forecast to reflect
current radar trends. No significant changes from previous
forecasters thinking. Previous discussion follows.

Scattered showers and a few isolated storms have developed as
expected this afternoon along a weak surface trough draped from
near lake ontario east into central new england as of mid-
afternoon. Weak convergent flow and low- end surface-based
instability along this boundary is driving this activity in the
absence of larger synoptic- scale forcing, and given rather poor
lapse rates aloft coverage should wane as we progress beyond
sunset and toward the overnight hours. A brief heavy downpour
will be possible here and there, but many areas will remain dry
so don't cancel any outdoor plans you may have for this evening.

Lows a blend of consensus guidance offering lows ranging
through the 50s in most spots.

A better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected on
Tuesday as another fairly vigorous shortwave swings directly through
the region. Juxtaposition of this feature with chilly thermal
profiles aloft (-20 to -22c at 500 mb) suggests convection will
likely organize into one or two bands which will sweep across the
area during the late morning and afternoon hours. Not enough
instability to drive anything to severe levels, but given low wet
bulb zero heights below 8 kft some brief gusty winds and small hail
could certainly occur. Best probabilities across eastern counties
where at least some morning early afternoon partial sunshine will
steepen low level lapse rates. Highs a bit cooler tomorrow with the
convection and an broad increase in afternoon ambient cloud
cover... Mainly 60s to perhaps a few spot 70f readings south and east.

Shortwave then exits east through the evening hours on Tuesday with
convective coverage lessening over time and leaving a mainly dry
overnight period. Again, a few early evening storms may spit
out some small hail east early. Low temperatures perhaps a
degree or two cooler than tonight, generally upper 40s to mid

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 247 pm edt Monday... Wednesday looks to be a relative
minimum in the convective activity for the week. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the shortwave should dry things out despite
a fair amount of cold air aloft. There will be some instability
developing in the afternoon but areal coverage should remain
fairly low.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 247 pm edt Monday... Thursday will begin a stretch of
active weather through the end of the week. A wave along a
frontal boundary will travel north of the border Thursday
through Thursday night with a boundary stretched out east to
west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to the west of the
area in the lower great lakes and southern ontario and move east
along the boundary. Instability progged to be meager Thursday
and Thursday night so overall thunder chances area fairly low.

Instability increases Friday so increased thunder chances Friday
and Friday night.

Southwesterly flow will continue to transport more moisture rich
air into the region Friday and Saturday. Available instability
progged to increase with the moisture plume moving into the
area, but deep layer shear is meager at this point. Pwat values
by Saturday way back up into the 1.50-2.00" range and heavy
rainfall is definitely a concern. The rainfall of the last week,
combined with whatever falls Thursday could set the stage for a
flash flood event Saturday. Amount and location of Thursday's
rainfall will set the antecedent conditions for any potential
flooding Saturday. Still quite far out in the forecast, but
definitely bears watching.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 00z Wednesday... Challenging aviation forecast with
regards to low clouds and potential fog br tonight followed by
timing of convection on Tuesday. Current radar shows line of
showers with embedded lightning entering the slv... But expecting
only showers to impact our TAF sites overnight with loss of
instability. Rainfall occurred at slk and over 0.75 at rut
earlier today... So plenty of boundary layer moisture is present.

However... Still noticing some boundary winds between 10-15 knots
and clouds in cyclonic flow aloft... Which should limit fog br
potential. Placed a tempo btwn 08-11z at slk for MVFR vis in br.

Potent S W energy and some surface instability will produce
additional showers and storms between 15z-21z Tuesday. Some of
the stronger convective elements will be capable of gusty winds
and small hail... Along with brief ifr conditions. Areas of
turbulence and low level wind shear possible near convective
outflow boundaries on tues aftn.


Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday:VFR MVFR. Likely shra.

Thursday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Friday:VFR. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Likely tsra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg neiles
short term... Manning
long term... Manning
aviation... Taber

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT51 mi50 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F54°F91%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmW3CalmW3SW3W5NW6W4CalmCalmNW4SW7CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4S4SW6SW5SW4W3N4CalmN3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoCalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW4NW6W6W3W5W5N5CalmW3SW3W4W6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.