Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mooers, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:49PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:50 PM EDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 418 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms this evening...then scattered showers after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning... Then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mooers, NY
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location: 45.42, -73.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 232008
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
408 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy
rainfall will continue across the area this evening before
tapering off overnight. After a mainly dry Saturday a generally
unsettled weather pattern returns for much of next week with
daily chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures remain
near seasonal norms for early summer.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 245 pm edt Friday... Flash flood watch remains in effect
for the adirondacks into portions of northern vt through 11 pm.

Latest analysis showing deep and moist southwesterly flow
continues across the area this afternoon ahead of a slowly
advancing surface front across the eastern great lakes south
into the ohio valley. In this airmass scattered to numerous
showers and a few heavier thunderstorms will continue into this
evening before the front clears east and precipitation tapers
off overnight. Given near saturated soils and antecedent 1-2
inch rainfall in the flash flood watch area it won't take much
to cause hydro issues. Threat is conditional at this point with
most recent cam QPF output quite varied in convective evolution
over the next 3 to 6 hours. Problematic is a lack of steeper
lapse rates aloft to foster more robust vertical cloud growth.

That said, we remain in a 1.8 to 2.0 pwat airmass so efficient
rainfall processes will occur with locally heavy downpours a
near sure bet. By later tonight areas of mist patchy fog likely
under variably cloudy skies. Stuck close to blended temperature
guidance offering lows in the 60s.

By Saturday into Saturday night a brief period of drying can be
expected for most areas as we lie between shortwave troughs on the
southern edge of a dominant polar trough across central canada.

Additional weak low level troughing settling south toward the intl
border during the afternoon may spark scattered showers isolated
storms across the far north, but most of the day should be rain-free
for most areas. Highs similar to today (upper 70s to lower 80s),
though humidity will be more tolerable as dewpoints lower back into
the 50s over time. Lows Saturday night in the 50s to locally near 60
in milder valley locales.

Short term Sunday
As of 359 pm edt Friday... Broad upper level trof and weak
surface wave moving to the north of the international border
will provide a chance for shower and a few thunderstorms once
again on Sunday. Have increased rain chances over previous
forecast based on the preponderance of available guidance.

Instability is marginal, but sufficient for at least isolated
thunder.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
As of 359 pm edt Friday... Great lakes and northeast will
continue to be under the influence of a broad upper level
trough of low pressure through the middle of the week before
more zonal flow returns to ther region. Weak shortwaves will
rotate around the trough providing the chance for showers and
storms. Despite the flattening flow at the end of the week, a
weak boundary laid out just north of the area will continue to
provide convective chances at the end of the work week.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Through 18z Saturday... Changeable conditions through the period
with a mix ofVFR MVFR ifr expected. Numerous showers sct
thunderstorms producing locally heavy downpours to continue
through this evening. Heavier precipitation cores to drop vsbys
to MVFR ifr with MVFR CIGS and low probabilities of gusty
winds. Later tonight steadier showers isolated storms gradually
end west to east with passage of cold front. Vsbys generally
lower in the 4-6sm range with patchy br fg and MVFR ifr stratus
in the 02-12z time frame. After 12z conds improve toVFR. Winds
generally light south to southwesterly 6-12 kts through the
period.

Outlook...

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra tsra... Mainly north
Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Chance shra.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Hydrology
As of 1030 am edt Friday... Storms will have high rainfall rates
today, and training storms moving over same location could
produce areas of flash flooding in the flash flood watch area,
where 0.75 to locally 2 inches of precipitation fell earlier
today. With the overnight rains, 1 hour FFG has decreased into
the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range, with 3-hourly guidance running from
1.5 to around 2 inches. With the lack of an organized forcing
mechanism for storms this afternoon heavy rainfall will be hit
or miss, but latest output suggests instability on the south
side of warm front to our immediate north may drive additional
activity into the watch area. Per coordination with nerfc
additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches is forecast, which raises
concerns for smaller watersheds. Larger rivers and will see
modest rises but should remain within banks.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Flash flood watch until 11 pm edt this evening for vtz005>010-
017-018.

Ny... Flash flood watch until 11 pm edt this evening for nyz028>031-
034-035.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg
short term... Manning
long term... Manning
aviation... Jmg
hydrology... Jmg hanson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT51 mi56 minSW 310.00 miOvercast74°F70°F89%1001 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE3CalmW3SE4SE5S4S5S5S8S6S5S5S4S6S4W4Calm
1 day agoSW6W6W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S3S3S3CalmS3SW3SW4SW5SW6SW7W4SW3SW3Calm
2 days agoS6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.