Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mooers, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:51PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:46 AM EST (07:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mooers, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.42, -73.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbtv 230614
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
114 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
A storm system will bring mixed precipitation and rainfall to
the region tonight into Tuesday along with milder temperatures.

Colder air returns by Tuesday night with lingering light snows
tapering off. Seasonably cold air persists into Friday before
another substantial warmup and mixed precipitation return by
next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 114 am est Tuesday... Bulk of mixed precipitation has
lifted north of the canadian border early this morning and
temperatures have warmed to readings at or above freezing across
the northern adirondacks and champlain valley. Thus have
cancelled the winter weather advisories for these areas.

Temperatures still below freezing over the saint lawrence valley
and areas east of the green mountains. Moisture moving into the
saint lawrence valley will bring up to a tenth of an inch of
additional ice across the saint lawrence valley. Any additional
ice east of the green mountain may not occur until closer to
sunrise as it will take a bit of time for precipitation to move
back into that area. At that time temperatures will be very
close to freezing and thus additional ice accumulations will be
minor.

Previous discussion follows:
update to expand winter weather advisory for the champlain
valley as quick walk upstairs showed a mixture of snow sleet and
freezing rain here at btv with a light glaze already
developing. Given the band of moderate mixed precip lifting
across the cpv and our urban areas during the peak evening
commute, expecting areas of difficult travel. Thinking ice
accumulation up to a tenth or so is possible here across the cpv
and up to two tenths or so in the slv and parts of
eastern central vt. Temps with northwest winds continue to
struggle in the mid 20s, but all guidance suggests as warm front
lifts north winds will shift to the south and temps will warm
into the mid 30s by midnight in most locations. Have adjusted
pops temps and precip type accordingly. Expecting band of light
to moderate precip to be along the international border area by
midnight with just spotty rain and pockets of freezing rain as
upper level dynamics and better moisture is either north or west
of our cwa. Better moisture and lift arrives with surface cold
front on Tuesday for another 2 to 4 hour window of mainly
moderate rainfall.

Previous discussion below:
only minor changes to our current forecast through the evening
and overnight hours as low pressure near kdsm tracks toward lake
huron by sunrise Tuesday. We're still looking at a period of
mixed precipitation along it's accompanying warm front this
evening with light snow and ice accumulations expected. Latest
trends in the models have been to reduce the overall icing
threat across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast
area and showing more in the way of sleet. Quite a bit of
uncertainty exists in the exact thermal profiles however and
this leads to a low confidence forecast on eventual accretions
in these areas. As a result all winter weather advisories remain
in place with this package. The warm frontal precipitation
should be rather brief (3-6 hours) so the ice amounts should be
generally on the light side, ranging from a few hundredths to
perhaps a quarter inch in the far northern slv near kmss. Some
snow and sleet will also be prevalent in the first few hours of
precipitation onset, especially across northern and eastern vt,
though again accumulations should be light and mainly from a
dusting to perhaps 2 inches. As the warm front pushes northward,
the low to mid level flow trends south southeasterly by mid to
late evening in all areas save the far northern slv. This will
foster steadily rising temperatures into the overnight hours and
morning hours on Tuesday as we firmly enter a pronounced warm
sector. During this time frame p-type should transition to
mostly spotty areas of light rain or showers with many areas
seeing a period of dry weather.

By Tuesday the system's cold front marches steadily east through
time, crossing through northern ny in the mid to late morning, and
across vt during the afternoon. A period of steadier rainfall will
occur for several hours ahead of this boundary as temperatures climb
into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most spots. Contemplated adding an
outside shot of thunder as a narrow pre-frontal band of steeper mid-
level lapse rates and slightly negative showalter values crosses the
area. Confidence is low enough however to preclude mention at this
point.

Behind the front temperatures steadily fall Tuesday night as
lingering precipitation transitions to light snows snow showers and
takes on a more orographic character with synoptic flow trending
northwesterly. Some light backside accumulations of a dusting to 2
inches will be possible in these areas with some spot totals
slightly higher at the higher summits. Lows by Wednesday morning to
generally bottom out in the 15 to 25 range - coolest north and
west.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 351 pm est Monday... After the cold front pushes through
Tuesday night, temperatures will fall throughout the day
Wednesday. Expect some residual snow showers lingering through
the day Wednesday. Additional accumulations during the day will
be restricted to under an inch in the northern greens, with
other areas only seeing a dusting if anything. Behind the
frontal passage, the lower atmosphere will become better mixed
and winds could become gusty at times. The combination of the
colder air mass and the gusty winds will make for cold wind
chills Wednesday lasting through Thursday night. Wednesday
night, a surface high will build in from the northwest. This
will allow cloud cover to decrease and overnight temperatures to
bottom out in the single digits above to single digits below
zero. Thursday through Thursday night will be the coldest day of
the week (highs generally in the teens and lows near or below
zero) before warm air advection commences Friday.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 351 pm est Monday... The temperature swings will continue
through the long term with a warming trend starting Friday and
precipitation returning over the weekend. After the system moves
through, expect early next week to be drier with temperatures
returning down to seasonal norms of 20s to low 30s by Monday.

Details... As the surface high shifts off the atlantic coast by
Friday evening, southerly return flow along the eastern seaboard
will transport warmer air northward. Meanwhile further west, a
surface low will form in the lee of the canadian rockies
Thursday night. Between the surface high to our east and the
strengthening lee low to the west, a southwesterly jet will
transport gulf moisture northeastward. There is still some
question as to the extent of the amplification of the longwave
trough associated with this system, and the resulting extent of
the moisture transport warm air advection ahead of the trough.

This is leading to greater uncertainty with the temperatures,
precipitation amounts, precipitation type, and precise timing
through the weekend. The trend of the 00z ECMWF and the 06z and
12z operational runs of the GFS is towards a lesser amplified
trough and more progressive system, resulting in less moisture
transport into the north country. However, a look at the gfs
ensembles reveals substantial spread among different ensemble
members with regards to the amplification of the upper-level
flow and the subsequent low-level baroclinicity associated with
the amplification of the flow. For this reason, not ready to
bite off completely yet on the deterministic trend towards a
slightly colder, drier system. With complex thermal profiles,
current thinking is we'll see a fairly quick shot of mainly
rain sometime Saturday night through Sunday with the
possibility of some mixed precipitation on the front end and
back end of the system. If the warmer solutions do verify, the
system could provide some renewed hydro concerns. Will continue
to monitor trends in numerical guidance closely as models begin
converge on a better consensus for this storm.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 06z Wednesday... A wide variety of categories exist
across the area with a generalVFR MVFR ceilings... But ifr
ceilings at kmss. These conditions will last through about 12z
and that is when the next wave of precipitation will move into
the area. There will still be some freezing rain at kmss through
about 14z... But everywhere else temperatures will be warm enough
for rain. Expect the rain to be steady at times and most
locations will see MVFR and ifr visibilities through about 00z
and then as precipitation comes to an end visibilities will
improve back into theVFR category. There may be some low level
wind shear at kmss this morning with low level northeast winds
and southwest winds at or above 2000 feet... But this should come
to an end by mid morning. Otherwise looking at south to
southwest winds everywhere else.

Outlook...

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance ra,
slight chance shsn.

Hydrology
As of 320 pm est Monday... Widespread rainfall is expected
across the area late tonight and especially on Tuesday. Current
data suggests 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 700 pm Tuesday
will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch across the area. Given the
substantial loss of snowpack across lower elevations during last
week's storm, and the fact that the warm-up will be of lesser
magnitude we are not expecting significant ice movement or water
rises on area rivers at this time. This is in close agreement
with nerfc guidance and our latest river forecasts. Conditions
will continue to be monitored closely over the next 36 hours and
will be updated if later information suggests a different
scenario than current thinking.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
vtz003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for nyz026-
027-087.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Evenson jmg
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Evenson
hydrology... Jmg evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT51 mi52 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast33°F32°F97%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrN4N3N5N6N4N5N3N3NW3N6N3N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7
1 day agoNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N3CalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmN3N4N3N4N4N5N4N5
2 days agoS10
G16
S11
G18
S11
G19
S11
G16
S9
G17
S7SW9SW5
G14
SW4W12
G26
W10
G21
W9
G14
W10
G18
W4SW3SW4S8SW7SW6SW4CalmW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.