Monday, June18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Mooers, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:48PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:10 PM EDT (21:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 417 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds early.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny.
Tuesday night..West winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Sunny.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mooers, NY
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location: 45.42, -73.82     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 182101
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
501 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening
ahead of a cold front. The showers will end from north to south
by shortly after midnight. Any thunderstorms will be capable of
producing very heavy downpours with potential for isolated
flash flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Much cooler
and drier air will follow the frontal passage, leading to a
pleasant sunny day on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the
area. Another weak front will push through Wednesday night
followed by slightly cooler and drier air from canada for the
Thursday with seasonably warm temperatures into the weekend alon
g with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Near term through Tuesday night
As of 454 pm edt Monday... Severe thunderstorm watch for the
entire forecast area until 10 p.M.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, a few severe with gusts to
60 mph, a few with very heavy rain will continue into the
evening and slowly sag southward ending overnight. Canceled the
heat advisory in the north due to rain cooled air.

Morning soundings at wmw and buf show fairly decent low to mid
level lapse rates about 6.5 c km with capes forecast in the
1000-2000 j kg range. 0-6km shear values also 30-40 knots so
some organized severe thunderstorms are possible. Observed
precipitable water values ranged from 1.60 at buf to 1.80" at
wmw so locally heavy rains a good bet. Flash flood guidance
ranges from 2.1 to 2.5" in and hour and 2.5 to 3.2" in 3 hrs, so
with rather fast moving storms it will likely take some
training of two or three storms to reach those numbers but we'll
be keeping a close eye on that.

For tonight through Tuesday night... The front moves through the
area by midnight, ushering in cooler and drier air.

Showers thunderstorms will come to an end and skies will
gradually clear by mid-morning Tuesday. Lots of sunshine
expected by the afternoon, along with a bit of a northwest
breeze. Tuesday's highs will be in the lower to mid 70s, after
lows tonight in the mid 50s to around 60.

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 454 pm edt Monday... Generally quiet weather is expected
during this period with mean surface high pressure in control of
regional weather conditions. After a mainly clear night and
seasonable temperatures overnight Tuesday (45 to 55 f) skies
trend partly cloudy over time by Wednesday afternoon as a weak
surface trough approaches from the north. This feature will
approach the intl. Border NRN tier of counties later in the day
with perhaps a stray sprinkle or shower as advertised in some of
this morning's output. Dry lower levels and only a narrow mid-
level moisture axis along the wind shift should keep coverage
rather minimal and as such have only carried lower end pops
generally below 30 percent in these areas accordingly. Highs to
rebound quite nicely, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s
in most spots.

Any lingering spotty sprinkles light showers across the
northern counties will end Wednesday evening as the surface
trough clears southward and skies trend mainly clear. Lows again
near seasonable norms in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 454 pm edt Monday... Fair and seasonably mild to warm
weather is expected to round out the work week as surface high
pressure bridges atop the region. Thursday will be the cooler of
the two days as highs top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s under
light northerly winds. Then a nice rebound by Friday as the
high slides east, southerly return flow commences and air of
midwestern origin advects into our area - mid 70s to lower 80s.

The next chance of appreciable precipitation arrives by later
Saturday into Sunday of next weekend as a dampening upper
shortwave lifts northeast from the great lakes and ohio valley
states. This feature looks to have decent moisture and with
lower- end boundary layer instability showers along with a few
thunderstorms will be introduced into the forecast. Temperatures
on both weekend days to run on the warm side but not
excessively so - mainly upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and
corresponding lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
Through 18z Tuesday... Widespread organized thunderstorms with
brief local ifr visibilities and MVFR CIGS will continue
through 00z-03z Tuesday, then come to an end from northwest to
southeast with a cold frontal passage. Ceilings will drop to
MVFR at most terminals for a time late today into this evening,
then ceilings will thin and lift overnight withVFR and few
clouds by Tuesday morning.

Southerly southwesterly winds will continue around 10 with gusts
to around 20 kt through much of today, with gusty winds
possible in any storms. Could also encounter some areas of
turbulence tomorrow due to the thunderstorms, particularly in
and around terrain. Winds will turn to the northwest this
evening behind the cold front, remaining at 5-10 kt.


Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening. The combination of precipitable water values up to 2
inches and storm motions supporting some training of
convection, supports the threat for isolated flash flooding.

Given the available moisture in the atmosphere, any storms will
be capable of very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches in an
hour, which over terrain or urban areas could cause isolated
flash flooding. Given the very recent dry weather widespread
large stem river flooding is not anticipated, but sharp rises on
smaller streams in complex terrain where multiple rounds of
storms occur is possible.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for vtz011-012.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Sisson
near term... Sisson
short term... Jmg sisson
long term... Jmg sisson
aviation... Jmg sisson
hydrology... Hastings sisson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT51 mi15 minS 310.00 miOvercast79°F72°F81%1003 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3S5S4S4S5S5S4S5S5S6S6CalmS5S7S7S8S7S6
1 day agoW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE3CalmS5SW5S5S6S7S6SW4S5S3
2 days agoW4SW3CalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S5S4S4SW4SW3SW4SW3SW3CalmSW6NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.