Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:04PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:14 PM CDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 323 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Clear.
Wednesday..SW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Sunny.
Wednesday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts veering W 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Mostly clear.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
LMZ521 Expires:201710180445;;009827 FZUS53 KGRB 172023 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 323 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-180445-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 172347
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
747 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 333 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
only concerns will be winds tomorrow with S gales to 35 kts possible
over the lake michigan zones and 25-35 mph gusts over land. The
winds will result as a trough cold front moves in from the w,
increasing the pressure gradient. Confidence in wind speeds is high.

Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 342 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
Wednesday night through Friday night: fairly quiet weather is
expected through this time period as high pressure will remain in
control. A quick passing cold front will slide through Wednesday
night; however, this will be mainly dry with only an increase in
cloud cover expected. Aloft, upper level ridging in place will keep
temperatures above normal through this time period, in fact, many
places will be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal through this
time period. For perspective, average temperatures this time of year
area right around the low 50s.

Saturday into Sunday: an upper level trough is expected to slide
from the plains eastward through the upper great lakes region
through this time period. At the surface, the associated surface low
is expected to slide north of the area, and remain mainly over
canada. This will drag a cold front through the upper peninsula
Saturday afternoon and then to the east of the area by Sunday
evening. There are some differences in the timing of the front, the
ec is slower with the FROPA and the GFS is faster. If the ec is
correct, the rain showers will linger into Sunday evening, while the
gfs would have the u.P. Drying out by early Sunday afternoon.

Current trends would have roughly a half inch of precip across the
area by Sunday afternoon. There may be just enough instability
around for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening for a few
thunderstorms; however, thunderstorm potential does look to be
fairly marginal.

The rest of the extended: there may be a brief break in the
precipitation Sunday night; however, another low pressure system is
expected to slide through for Monday into Tuesday. There are some
major differences in intesnsity with this system as the previous run
of the GFS had a very strong low and upper level trough bringing
gusty winds and colder air, while the latest GFS and ec have the
system much weaker. It still looks to be fairly unsettled for this
time period with intermittent chances of rain and near to below
normal temperatures. At this point, will stick with model consesnus
as confidence remains low on the details of this system.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 747 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
under a dry air mass,VFR conditions will continue at kiwd kcmx ksaw
thru this fcst period. Strengthening winds above nocturnal inversion
will lead to the development of llws tonight. Then, as mixing
increases under daytime heating on wed, winds will become gusty to
20-30kt at all terminals.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 333 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
expect southwest winds to 20 kts or less into tonight. Another
period of stronger southwest winds up to 30 kts is expected Wed into
wed evening with winds becoming west later Wed night into thu. Could
be close to gales during this period, but right now looks to stay
just below. South winds should stay 15 to 25 knots Fri into sat
ahead of next cold front that moves through late in the weekend.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Titus
long term... Kec
aviation... Rolfson
marine... Titus


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi35 min S 4.1 G 11 58°F 1015.9 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi45 min S 8.9 G 12 61°F 1015.5 hPa51°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi35 min S 14 G 17 59°F 1015.9 hPa
45014 48 mi45 min S 9.7 G 12 61°F 58°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi19 minSSW 1010.00 miFair59°F52°F78%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8SW10SW10SW11
G16
SW10SW8SW7SW10W11W9W7W5W6W7W5W4SW6S7S9S9S10S7S10
1 day ago----------------------------------SW9
G18
W9
G15
W9S4SW8SW6SW7
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.