Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday April 29, 2017 6:23 AM CDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 11:45PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 438 Am Cdt Sat Apr 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Today..N wind 10 to 20 kts becoming ne. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Partly Sunny.
Tonight..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft on the bay and to 4 to 7 ft on the lake. A chance of light rain or mixed rain and snow.
Sunday..NE wind to 30 kts...with gale force gusts around 35 kts in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft on the bay...and 6 to 9 ft on the lake. Periods of rain.
Sunday night..E wind to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 35 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft on the bay...and 6 to 9 ft on the lake. Periods of rain.
LMZ521 Expires:201704291630;;442133 FZUS53 KGRB 290938 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 438 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-541-291630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 290842
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
442 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 403 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
expect a quiet weather day across the area as we remain under the
influence of high pressure. The 00z RAOB from international falls
shows a rather dry airmass upstream of the region that will spread
south across the area as high pressure crests the region. Onshore
flow near lake superior will keep temperatures on the cooler (low
40s) side near the lakeshore, but further inland, temperatures
should climb into the upper 40s and maybe pushing 50 across the
south central where downsloping winds will aid in warming.

Upper-level clouds will increase in coverage this evening and
overnight ahead of a low pressure lifting north out of the central
plains. Precipitation chances will also return across the south
central and far eastern portions of upper michigan as 850mb flow
veer northerly to east/southeasterly and warm air advection returns
to the region. Based on temperatures profiles, looks like
precipitation may start off as a rain/snow mix, before transitioning
over to rain.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 441 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
the active pattern that has brought frequent bouts of pcpn to the
fcst area over the last couple of weeks will continue into early
next week as one more significant pcpn producing system lifts into
the western great lakes. Some snow will occur as well. Once this
system passes, a large scale pattern change is in the offing.

Ridge/positive height anomaly currently off the W coast will build
into the western CONUS by the middle of next week, shifting the
recent mean rockies/plains trof eastward and ending the train of ne
tracking shortwaves across the central conus. However, as the ridge
shifts e, one more shortwave will round it, dropping into the
southern plains/lower mississippi valley during the middle of next
week. As was the case yesterday, it appears that the progession of
the large scale pattern should keep the storm system that this wave
spins up (another big pcpn producer) well SE and E of the upper
lakes late next week. However, it will be something to monitor. If
the upstream ridge is sharper, leading to a more strongly digging
shortwave, the progression of the large scale trof will be held up
and the storm track could be much farther nw, or down the road, the
upper lakes could fall under the chilly influence of what becomes a
large cutoff low over the NE conus, a solution beginning to appear
in some guidance. As for temps, blo normal temps will prevail over
the next 7 days. Departures from normal for MAX temps will be most
notable early next with readings as much as 15-20 degrees blo
normal. Temps should trend upward during the last half of next week,
closer to normal, but that will depend on progression/amplitude of
the trof just discussed. Looking farther ahead, cfsv2 ensemble mean
fcsts continue to point toward overall blo normal temps thru mid
may. That doesn't mean there won't be some warm days, but rather
that the pattern shouldn't support any longer periods of above
normal temps. It also appears that a drier pattern will be setting
in for the upper lakes.

Beginning Sun thru mon... Mid-level low centered vcnty of western ok
sun morning will lift ne, deepening around 150m at 500mb, by the
time it reaches roughly central upper mi Mon evening. Sfc low will
track from near kansas city to central upper mi. Weaker shortwaves
lifting nne btwn the mid-level low and a strong ridge near the e
coast, 500mb positive height anomaly around 200m, will aid deep
southerly flow/abundant moisture transport into the great lakes.

Models remain in very good agreement that these waves and strong
moisture transport will support periods of heavy rainfall lifting
nne across lower mi on sun. While some rain should begin to spread
into the fcst area during the day Sun as isentropic ascent/moisture
transport begin to increase, especially S central/se, the main
period of heavier pcpn for upper mi will hold off until the mid-
level low moves closer Sun night/mon. Vigorous deep layer forcing
per q-vectors combined with strong isentropic ascent/moisture
transport and precipitable water increasing to above 1 inch/250pct
of normal will likely support a band of mdt/hvy pcpn swinging n
across the area later Sun night/early Mon morning. In addition, with
mid-level dry slot surging nne, not out of the question that there
could be a few rumbles of thunder on the backside of the mdt/hvy
pcpn band as it lifts n. Will probably see widespread 0.75 to 1.25
inch rainfall amounts across the fcst area by late Mon aftn. While
there have been some concerns about wintry ptypes as the pcpn
spreads into W and NW upper mi, that concern is mostly gone. Only
the 00z cmc maintains a weak enough warm layer aloft that might
allow for wintry ptypes over the W and nw. For now, believe warming
will be sufficient to largely prevent any frozen ptypes. As the
strong isentropic ascent/moisture transport lift N of the area mon
morning, followed by mid level dry slot, pcpn intensity/coverage
will diminish markedly. Deeper moisture will then fill back in over
the area throughout the day as mid-level low approaches, reaching
upper mi Mon evening. Fcst soundings suggest ptype will remain just
rain thru the day mon. Only possible exception may be the far W high
terrain around ironwood, but even there, majority of guidance
supports rain as ptype.

As the mid-level low drifts across the upper lakes Mon night, then
lifts toward SE canada and opens up on tue, lingering sharp cyclonic
flow shifting to the NW and persistent low-mid level moisture will
likely maintain areas of pcpn into tue. This pcpn will begin to
diminish Tue aftn and more so Tue night due to arrival of drier air
and weakening cyclonic flow as system moves farther away. With the
wshft to the NW and arrival of colder air, rain will at least mix
with some snow, especially over the higher terrain of the NW half,
where there could be some minor snow accumulations, perhaps an inch
or two, especially during Mon night/tue morning.

Should be able to slip in a dry day on wed, then much will depend on
the evolution of the mean trof progressing toward the eastern conus.

As mentioned earlier, energy will be diving into the southern
plains/lower mississippi valley mid late week ahead of the ridge
shifting into the western conus. Provided the low pres system that
develops from this energy remains well to the se, any pcpn late week
will be tied to additional shortwaves that may drop into the
amplifying eastern trof. At this time, it appears there may be a
shortwave passing on Thu that could generate isold/sct -shra.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 121 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
expectVFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites throughout the
forecast period.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 403 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
winds of 15 to 25 knots this morning will subside to 10 to 15 knots
as high pressure moves across the area today. By Sunday morning,
winds will become northeasterly ahead of an approaching low pressure
system from the central plains. Winds will increase to 20 to 30
knots by Sunday afternoon. By early Monday morning, as low pressure
begins to lift across the upper great lakes, northeast gales of 35
to 40 knots are possible, especially across the west and central
portions of the lake. The winds will begin to subside to 20 to 30
knots Monday night into Tuesday as the winds veer northerly. Winds
will further subside to 10 to 15 knots by Wednesday morning, and
will remain below 20 knots through the remainder of the week.

Mqt watches/warnings/advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

gale watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
lsz162-263-264.

Lake michigan...

gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
lmz221-250.

Short term... Ritzman
long term... Rolfson
aviation... Voss
marine... Ritzman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi44 min NNW 6 G 9.9 36°F 1024.7 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi44 min N 5.1 G 8 37°F 1024.7 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi66 min S 6 G 7 35°F 1024.6 hPa29°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi44 min NNW 1 G 2.9 32°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi28 minSSW 810.00 miFair27°F25°F92%1027.9 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7SW9
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W10S8S6NW7W5NW7W3W3NW7N5NW3NW3CalmNW3S8
1 day agoNW8N84N9
G14
3NW7NW12W7W8W12W13W8SW6SW3SW5SW5SW4W10SW12SW6SW9W4SW5SW9
2 days agoNE7NE9--NE6E8E9E7E7SE8S5S10S6S5SE3CalmE3NW4N7N9N75N85NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.