Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:14PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:10 AM CST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:36AMMoonset 3:55PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 403 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft in the southern bay and 2 to 4 ft in the central bay. Light snow and flurries in the morning.
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kts veering N 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of light snow after midnight.
Saturday..E wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow.
Saturday night..E wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries after midnight.
LMZ521 Expires:201712151715;;923325 FZUS53 KGRB 151003 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 403 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-151715-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 151149
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
649 am est Fri dec 15 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 435 am est Fri dec 15 2017
a shortwave over the area is driving some light snow across the
area, with lake effect in the NW snowbelts of the western u.P. And a
band of heavy lake effect N of the superior shorelines of eastern
upper mi. Behind the shortwave, wind fields will allow les to move
onshore in the NW wind snowbelts of the E this morning. Little
change in thinking from the previous shift, so no headline changes
were needed. Lake effect diminishes to a degree tonight, lingering
strongest longest into eastern marquette and far western alger
county through tonight. From 12z today to 12z sat, additional
accumulations are expected to be 3-5" in the snowbelts of the
western half, 5-8", possibly up to 11", in alger and northern
schoolcraft, and 2-5" in luce county.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 350 am est Fri dec 15 2017
beginning Saturday: with sfc high pressure sliding north and east of
lake superior and 850 mb temps in the -16c to -20c range, expect
some lingering light lake effect snow mainly in E to NE flow areas.

Very light snow of a up to a few tenths of an inch forced by WAA may
also occur along the wi border counties, but overall impacts should
be minimal.

Sunday and Monday: mainly zonal flow aloft along with weak surface
ridging and increasing 850 mb temps will allow for mostly dry
conditions and moderating temps during this time.

Tuesday through Wednesday: a shortwave trough moving in Mon night
will usher in another shot of colder air into the region generating
more les for the W to NW wind snow belts Tuesday into Wednesday.

Gusty west to northwest winds, especially across the keweenaw and
north central shoreline areas, will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night aided by an isallobaric wind component crossing the CWA behind
the trough. Mixed layer off the GFS forecast soundings would suggest
several locations reaching advisory criteria wind gusts of 45 mph
or greater.

Wed night into Friday: model uncertainty increases for later in the
week regarding evolution of a low pres system developing over the
plains and moving into the great lakes region. The 00z ecmwf
solution is not as deep and farther south than its previous run and
shows the low taking a similar track as the 00z GFS and GEFS through
central lower mi and across lake huron Thu night into Fri morning.

Following a blend of the 00z GFS and ECMWF solutions... WAA snow
ahead of this system would spread into upper mi late Wed into wed
night and continue into Thu with the potential for significant lake
enhanced snow over the northeast snow belts Thu afternoon into
Friday morning. Model trends on this developing storm system and
its potential impact on holiday travel will need to be monitored
heading into next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 649 am est Fri dec 15 2017
lake effect snow showers will continue at kcmx and kiwd. Ksaw will
have light snow into this morning.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 435 am est Fri dec 15 2017
winds will stay generally below 20 knots through the weekend except
for a few northwesterly gusts to 30 knots today. Southwesterly winds
will increase late Monday to 20 to 30 knots before veering to
northwesterly gales to 35-45 knots late Mon night into Wed morning.

With increasing wave heights, freezing spray is possible late
Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for miz006-
007-085.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est 3 pm cst this afternoon
for miz001>004-009-084.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Titus
long term... Voss
aviation... Titus
marine... Titus


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi31 min WNW 7 G 12 20°F 1007.8 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi41 min W 8.9 G 14 16°F 1008.6 hPa9°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi31 min WNW 17 G 21 20°F 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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E16
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N19
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NW18
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G8
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SE10
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G14
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G15
E14
SE15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi15 minW 810.00 miFair14°F9°F80%1010 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW9W8W9W9W8W4CalmCalmCalmW7W5W6W6SW5SW4W6SW5W6W7W7W6W7W8
1 day agoNE9NE9NE9NE10NE12NE10NE11
G15
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N7N8N5NW4NW5NW4NW3NW5W6W5NW3W5W6W8W7W6
2 days agoNW13
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G22
NW14
G21
NW11NW11NW9NW3W4N3CalmW3W4W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNE53NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.