Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:42PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:13 PM CDT (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1009 Am Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S wind increasing to 20 to 30 knots with a few gusts possible as high as 35 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft. Periods of showers with Thunderstorms possible.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering ne after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
LMZ521 Expires:201706282215;;956142 FZUS53 KGRB 281509 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-282215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 281901
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
301 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 256 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
the break in precipitation across the u.P. Is slowly coming to an
end, with a weather system approaching from the southwest this
evening. Visible satellite imagery shows an expansive area of cloud
cover across the great lakes upper midwest; however, some clouds
have been able to erode with afternoon heating across portions of
southern mn ia mo. Water vapor imagery indicates a lobe of vorticity
embedded within the inverted trough axis across northeast iowa,
which is closer to the greatest instability area of eastern
iowa northern illinois southwest wisc. Forecast guidance throughout
the day has maintained diffluent flow over the u.P. Which is helping
to diminish the leading edge of precip, and this appears to be the
case through 21z. Heights are then progged to fall, with the vort
lobe lifting northeast across central wisc but also weakening. The
warm moist conveyor if progged to lift north over central eastern
u.P. With the steadier precip still positioned along a menominee
county to southern luce county. As eluded to earlier, guidance has
been trending towards less QPF through the event. But this could all
depend on upstream convection, which is struggling at present to
develop. With more thunderstorm activity over southern wisc iowa il,
this would help to shunt the heavier precip axis further south. Have
trended lower with QPF as a reflection of this thinking, with
between 0.5" to 0.8" for central western u.P. And 1" to 1.3" for
menominee luce axis. There does remain some instability through the
profile overnight, mainly within the 00-06z timeframe, which could
still support some embedded or isolated convection. Given the moist
airmass, some brief heavier downpours is plausible and could easily
push QPF totals higher for those respective area.

Temps tonight will remain mild with the warm moist airmass in place,
pushing dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will keep
overnight lows similar to td's. The baggy gradient may produce some
patchy fog as well, but this appears to be more focused in the
eastern cwfa after midnight.

Thursday... Trough axis will continue to pivot east, being overhead
of the u.P. Around daybreak. Then continueing to push east
throughout the day, with height rises beginning to approach from
west to east by early afternoon. Dry weather is then progged to
return. Highs for thur will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s,
with areas adjacent to lake superior experiencing a shadow effect
and remaining several degrees cooler than inland locations.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 337 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
models indicate a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with zonal
flow during the middle of the week giving way to troughing through
the north central CONUS this weekend as a mid level low moves from
alberta into the upper great lakes. A ridge will then build from the
northern plains into the upper great lakes for the first half of
next week. Temperatures will remain below normal with moderation
closer to seasonal averages early next week.

Beginning Thursday, additional wrap-around moisture and light rain
could continue across the northern tier of the CWA into early
Thursday afternoon as the compact mid level low moves across eastern
lake superior. Ridging and q-vector divergence spreading in from
the west in the afternoon will lead to drier conditions.

Friday-Sunday, as the larger scale mid level trough deepens from the
northern plains into the upper great lakes, a shortwave trough and
associated sfc low is expected to lift from the central plains into
the western great lakes. The models have trended farther north with
this feature and associated pcpn compared to previous runs. The
heaviest pcpn is again expected over southeast upper mi based on
model consensus track of the sfc low and fcst of stronger 305k-310k
isentropic ascent over SE half of the cwa. With the mid-level trough
deepening over the northern great lakes, rain chances will increase
Saturday, especially inland during peak heating. Isolated t-storms
will also be possible SE half as MLCAPE values approach 500 j kg.

Enough moisture instability will linger into Sunday with cyclonic
mid level wnw flow and potential of weak shortwaves moving through
region to warrant low chc pops for mainly afternoon isold to
scattered showers.

Monday-Wednesday, models and ensembles in good agreement with the
drying trend expected at least for the first half of next week as
mid-level and sfc ridging build into the area. Sunshine should push
temps well into the 70s with a gradual warming trend into Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 256 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
vfr conds are still holding at TAF sites; however, visible
satellite imagery indicates upstream obs are lowering due to the
moistening airmass that is expected to arrive tonight. Leading
edge of precip has struggled to lift northeast towards iwd saw;
however, expect later tonight precip coverage to increase along
with intensity increasing. There does remain a possible
thunderstorms could approach iwd saw, but timing is currently
difficult to pin-down.VFR conds are expected to steadily lower
this evening, heading towards ifr CIGS with vsbys holding around
MVFR. After 6z, the gradient becomes weak and this may allow cigs
and vsbys to fall further towards lifr conds. After daybreak thur,
cigs vsbys will be slow to recover but expect precip to shift east
by mid-morning andVFR conds returning by 18z thur if not slightly
earlier.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 256 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
ahead of a low pressure system the gradient increases over lake
michigan, with gusts approaching 25 to 30 kt at times this
evening overnight. Across lake superior the gradient is not as
robust; however, winds may approach small craft advisory conditions
at times for portions of lake superior east of the keweenaw
peninsula. The low lifts northeast tonight, and could allow marine
fog to develop. With winds turning west northwest, expect any fog to
be confined to the east given the short-window for development.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for miz014.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Beachler
long term... Voss
aviation... Beachler
marine... Beachler


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi34 min SE 5.1 G 12 62°F 1009.5 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi34 min S 9.9 G 18 61°F 1010.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi44 min S 9.9 G 14 1008.8 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi34 min S 20 G 24 60°F 1010.2 hPa
45014 48 mi44 min SSE 14 G 18 64°F 1009.3 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi18 minS 910.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
G16
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S8S8S8S7SW4SW5SW6SW5SW5CalmCalmSW5SW3S6S10SE10S13
G16
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1 day agoN10
G16
N5N7NW8N5W4W3CalmW5W4W4W5W5W5CalmW5W5NW7NW63SE7SE10S10S9
2 days agoSW7NW4E4S5W7NW7N6NW4NW4W4NW3W4W4W4W4W6W5NW5NW6NW6NW7N8NW9N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.