Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday March 23, 2017 1:13 AM CDT (06:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 2:18PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 829 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries after midnight.
Thursday..S wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft afternoon. A chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Thursday night..S wind 15 to 20 kts early...decreasing to 10 kts by late evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Light rain.
Friday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts veering N mid-day, then veering ne early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Light rain likely. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ521 Expires:201703231015;;927551 FZUS53 KGRB 230129 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 829 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-231015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmqt 230421
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
1221 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 348 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
as high pressure continued to push east across the area today, lake
effect snow showers east of marquette diminished rapidly throughout
the late morning and early afternoon. Afternoon water vapor imagery
shows a fairly amplified pattern with a longwave trough across the
western conus, a ridge extending northward towards the canadian
border and spanning much of the central conus, and another longwave
trough across the east. As the westernmost longwave trough slowly
continues to move east across the rockies, a lee cyclone has begun
to develop across the northern plains with a swath of mid-level
moisture returning northward into the northern plains and upper
mississippi river valley.

As we remain under the influence of surface high pressure, expect
the pleasant weather to continue through the rest of the evening!
late tonight into Thursday morning, as warm air advection begins to
lift across the area, expect skies to become cloudy from west to
east across the area. Overnight temperatures will be highly
dependent on how fast/thick the mid and upper level clouds come
in/will be. Confidence is highest in temperatures across the east
where cloud cover will be last to arrive and ample radiational
cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the lower teens.

As the leading edge of the warm air advection/isentropic accent
approach area from the southwest Thursday morning, expect the a band
of snow showers to develop across the western u.P. And gradually
move across the central and east through mid/late morning and
afternoon hours, respectively. Forecast soundings show ample dry low-
level air, so the initial timing for precipitation onset across the
west looks like it will occur after midnight tonight into the early
morning hours. With temperature profiles being between -10 and 0c,
do not expect the slrs to be terribly impressive, but upwards of
half an inch of wet, slushy snow will be possible across the west
through the morning and into the central and eastern u.P. Later in
the morning/afternoon. Expect the snow to transition over to rain in
locations that see temperatures climb above freezing through the
afternoon, and possibly even a break in precipitation during the day
across the west.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 358 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
overall confidence in the longer term fcst is lo because the wx into
early next week wl depend on the track/intensity/timing of a closed
lo in the SRN branch flow dominating the conus, a hi pres passing
thru scentral canada under a separate NRN branch flow, and the sharp
gradient of mstr btwn these features that wl be near upr mi thru the
weekend. Because some llvl cold air associated with the hi pres may
bleed into/linger over upr mi, there could be some mixed pcpn
including freezing ra at times. However, temps into at least early
next week should run AOA normal due mainly to relatively warm
overngt temps. There is likely to be a drying trend next tue/wed as
an upr rdg builds over the WRN great lks, but there is uncertainty
as to how much cold air wl return on the SRN flank of accompanyin hi
pres bldg into NW ontario.

Thu ngt into Fri ngt... As a closed lo over the SRN rockies embedded
in the SRN branch flow dominating the CONUS shifts slowly toward the
mid ms river valley, guidance indicates an area of pcpn wl dvlp on
thu ngt over upr mi to the N of its accompanying warm fnt that wl
extend into the lower lks. There remain some sgnft differences as to
how far N the main, most persistent waa/mid lvl fgen pcpn band wl
drift on Thu ngt into Fri as well as the thermal profile/ptype/
impact of llvl evaporative cooling and then on how quickly expanding
sfc hi pres over scentral canada under the large scale subsidence
behind the passing NRN branch shrtwv wl advect drier air into the
upr lks and push this pcpn band to the S on fri/fri ngt. Since h85
temps are fcst to rise above 0c over the area and lingering llvl dry
air wl allow for evaporative cooling on Thu ngt that allows for sub
freezing near sfc temps under the elevated warm lyr, there is the
potential for freezing ra/ice accums then before diminished
evaporative cooling with llvl moistening on Fri allows the pcpn to
change to mainly ra. Considering model qpf, there appears to be a
potential for 0.10 to 0.20 ice accum on Thu night over the interior
w and central cwa. Opted to issue an sps to highlight the potential
for this icing. Although the 12z NAM shows more sgnft pcpn farther
to the N into Fri ngt, the bulk of the recent model runs indicate
the most persistent pcpn into Fri ngt wl occur over the scentral
closer to the area of deeper mstr with more aggressive mid lvl
drying over the NRN tier. Considering the far S placement of the upr
lo and the trend for the axis of h85-7 fgen to drift to the S with
time, the farther S model consensus seems on the right track for
fri/fri ngt. But upslope ene winds on the SRN flank of hi pres bldg
into NW ontario ahead of a bldg NRN branch upr rdg axis over
scentral canada may allow some lgt pcpn to linger a bit longer over
the hier terrain of the ncentral.

Sat into mon... There remain sgnft differences as to how quickly and
far to the N the SRN branch closed lo wl lift thru the weekend. In
general, the medium range guidance has trended toward a farther n
drift into lower mi, which would allow a gradual return of deeper
mstr and expansion of pops to the N over upr mi as the drying
influence of the ontario hi pres diminishes with its shift into
quebec. Since h85 temps wl be over 0c, accompanying pcpn should be
mainly liquid. The question remains as to how much and how long
colder/drier near sfc air associated with the departing sfc hi pres
wl linger acrs the area that could allow for some freezing ra.

Extended... As an upr rdg blds over the WRN great lks on tue/wed, the
longer range guidance indicates bldg hi pres in NW ontario wl expand
over the WRN great lks and bring a drying trend to upr mi. But there
are sgnft differences as to how much cold air wl spill into the area.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1220 am edt Thu mar 23 2017
mainlyVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through Thursday.

Mid and high clouds will spread from west to east overnight with
winds becoming southerly. There is the potential for a brief band of
snow showers moving through kiwd that could bring CIGS to near MVFR
though confidence is limited as the dry low level air in place
should reduce the pcpn intensity. A larger area of rain will move in
Thursday evening as srly low lvl flow increases. This should drop
cigs into the MVFR and possibly to ifr by late evening. Evaporative
cooling should also be strong enough for the rain to change to fzra
at ksaw.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 348 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
as high pressure continues to drop southeast of the area tonight,
winds will become southerly and increase to 15 to 25 knots by
Thursday morning. Expect the winds to increase through the afternoon
to around 25 to 30 knots. Expect S winds as hi as 30 kts, with a
few gale force gusts to 35 kts possible, on Thu evening over the
east half of lake superior to diminish on Thu night thru Fri as a
flatter pres gradient dominates. Expect NE veering E winds to
increase up to 25 to perhaps 30 kts on Fri night into Sun under
the tightening pres gradient between hi pres passing from ontario
into quebec and lo pres in the lower great lakes. The strongest
winds are most likely over western lake superior, where the lake
topography will enhance the ene flow. As these features weaken and
exit to the e, winds by Mon will diminish.

Mqt watches/warnings/advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Ritzman
long term... Kc
aviation... Jlb
marine... Ritzman


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi33 min SSE 1 G 2.9 23°F 1031.5 hPa
SYWW3 - Yacht Works Sister Bay WI 19 mi38 min SSE 6 G 8 24°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi33 min Calm G 2.9 25°F 1032.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi43 min SSE 8.9 G 12 27°F 1031.2 hPa18°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi33 min SSW 9.9 G 11 28°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
NW11
NW12
G15
N12
G15
N12
N10
NW10
NW10
N9
G12
NE8
G13
NE8
NE3
NE3
E7
SE8
SE9
SE9
E5
E7
SE11
G14
SE11
S7
G11
SE9
S7
G12
S8
G11
1 day
ago
SW9
W9
G12
W8
G11
W9
G12
W7
G15
W7
G12
NW13
G20
NW23
NW20
NW20
NW16
G24
NW16
G20
N16
N15
G23
NW18
G24
NW20
G27
NW22
NW21
NW16
G20
NW15
NW16
G22
N12
G15
NW11
G14
NW7
G11
2 days
ago
SW5
G8
SW4
W3
W1
W1
W6
G12
NW13
NW14
NW8
G11
NE5
NE6
N5
N4
N3
W1
SE2
S5
S8
SW6
G9
SW7
SW9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi17 minW 310.00 miFair20°F17°F89%1034.8 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrN12
G17
N7N6N3N3--CalmCalmN64SE9SE12S11S10S10
G15
S10
G18
S9S8S5S5S4CalmCalmW3
1 day agoSW5W5W6W6W7NW13
G19
NW11
G17
N14
G24
N13
G22
N12
G23
N14
G25
N15
G23
N13
G21
NW12
G21
N9
G16
N12
G17
N12
G17
N8
G14
N5N9NW74NW6NW5
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW7N6
G15
N11
G16
N94NW9N9
G15
NE5NE4NE3CalmW4CalmW4W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.