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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1101 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
This afternoon - W wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Scattered sprinkles. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tonight - W wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to around 25 kts. Scattered sprinkles. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed. Saturday - NW wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts backing W 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon. A chance of sprinkles. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - W wind 10 to 20 kts. Clear. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 191120 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 720 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hit and miss pops into the weekend, then drying out Sun-Mon. Low RH's and breezy.
-Next rain and snow event early next week and then drying out again mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 429 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

GOES-16 WV imagery shows dry air entering the UP following the passage of a cold front. Some moisture is still present to the north and west where the RAP analyzes a stacked 1005mb low over northwest Ontario. The moisture and broad lift from the parent trough passing to the north, in addition to being in the vicinity of a left exit region of a 125kt jet at 250mb will allow for some light rain and snow showers throughout today, supported by diurnal heating and orographic lift. With HRRR mean total precip through this evening being only a few hundredths of an inch and ensemble maximum QPF being around a tenth of an inch, impacts should be minimal. It will be a breezy day as cold advection behind the initial cold frontal feature to the east will help mix down winds of 15 to 25 mph throughout the day with higher gusts possible over the Keweenaw, but the probability of frequent gusts of 45 mph is 10% or less, so no Wind Advisories are planned. High temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 40s due to the aforementioned cold advection, which the wind will make it feel like it's around 30 outside, more akin to a late winter day than a spring day.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low just to the west of James Bay in Ontario with the trough axis across the area 00z Sat. The upper trough remains over the area through 12z Mon. Minor shortwaves moving through the trough will kick off some rain and snow showers tonight into Sat before drying out Sat night into SUn night.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Tennessee River Valley, a closed low in southern Saskatchewan and a deep trough across eastern Canada 12z Mon. The closed low in southern Saskatchewan heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue and opens into a trough. This trough then moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Wed while a broad ridge moves into the Rockies. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal Mon to below normal for Tue and Wed to above normal Thu and Fri. Rain and snow moves in Mon night into Tue and then dries back out for Wed into Fri.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 720 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Lingering moisture in the wake of a cold front passage is keeping low-end VFR ceilings at all 3 TAF sites through much of the day today. Some isolated to scattered light rain showers and snow showers are possible today, but with chances of precipitation below 25% for any given hour and the low intensity of such showers, left showers out of the TAFs at this time. Gusty westerly winds are expected especially at KCMX as gusts could reach 30kt. Overnight, ceilings descend somewhat, with about 40% chances of MVFR ceilings by daybreak Saturday.

MARINE
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

WSW winds increase to gales to 35 knots this morning as cold air advection reduces over lake stability. The strongest winds are expected along the northern shore of the Keweenaw due to funneling.
Winds veer NW and weaken to 20-30 kts tonight into Saturday and stay 20 to 30 knots into Sunday from the west before veering north. As ridging builds in Sunday night, winds die down to 20 knots or less and remain that way into Monday night. Winds become northeast and increase up to 30 knots on Tuesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ240.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ241.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ242>244.

Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>244-263-264.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245- 246.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ245-246-265>267.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ247-248.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ249.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-250.

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