Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 9:44 PM   Moonset 5:44 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 255 Am Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A frontal system will push through the waters today, resulting in gusty southwesterly winds and choppy seas. Winds gradually ease and turn more westerly tonight into Friday. The next system arrives on Saturday.

FXUS66 KPQR 251008 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 305 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Front will push inland today, with clouds and rain through the day. Showers tonight through Sat am, then another front will arrive with more rain for Sat afternoon into Sat night.
Unsettled weather with showers continues into early next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)...
Strong front still offshore as of 2 am, but rain has started across parts of northwest Oregon into western Washington. As the front draws closer, will see rain increase through mid morning. Will be a wet cool day, with temperatures only in the 50s for the lowlands, and 30s/40s for the high Cascades where will see snow above 5000 ft.

Models still in good agreement with the front moving onshore late this afternoon, and pushing across the region to the Cascades during the evening. As it does, will see the steady rain transition to showers, with showers continuing overnight.

For today through this evening, looks like will have a decent shot of rainfall, with most areas getting 0.50 to 0.75 inch of rain. But, bit more (1 to 2 inches) along the coast into the Coast Range and Willapa Hills and parts of the Cascades from Mt Hood northward across the south Washington Cascades. Speaking of the Cascades, snow levels will stay somewhat elevated today into this evening, with new accumulations of 3 to 7 inches of snow above about 5500 ft, though could get as much as 8 to 12 inches on the higher peaks above 7000 ft. With the snow, and time of the year, will issue Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades for today through Fri evening.

Models have been persistent depicting a surface low drifting out of the Gulf of Alaska towards the Pac NW later tonight through Fri, with that low weakening as it moves inland near Astoria later Fri into Fri evening. With this, showers will continue Fri/Fri evening. Snow levels remain at 4500 to 5000 feet, with another 3 to 8 inches in the Cascades Fri into Fri evening.

Next system will be fast approaching on Sat. The morning may be mostly dry, but will still have some lingering showers about the area. As the front approaches, rain will increase along the coast by mid-day, with that rain spreading inland in the afternoon. Again, this will be a fast moving front, with front moving across the region early Sat evening, with rain transitioning to showers. With fast movement, does not look like will get a lot of rain, with most areas in the 0.15 to 0.33 inch range, though few spots (such as the Coast Range/Willapa Hills) could get 0.50 to 0.75 inch. /Rockey

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)...Pattern is rather progressive, with fronts moving off the northeast Pacific into the Pacific NW. Yet another front will push across the region Sunday night, with post-frontal showers on tap for Monday. Still a bit cooler than that expected for late April, with overall temperatures in the lowlands in the 50s to lower 60s. Snow levels will run 2500 to 3500 ft, which will maintain some snow at times for the higher terrain of the foothills, as well as most of the Cascades.

Few showers around region on Tuesday, but think most of the day will wind up being mostly dry, as will have weak ridging over the region.
But, models show another potent front offshore later Tue night/early Wed, with that front pushing inland on Wed. With this, does look to be more rainy that showery for Wed. As such, will adjust forecasts to reflect this trend. After that, models still in quite a bit of flux.
Prior runs were showing upper low dropping southward towards north Calif (remaining just offshore of Oregon/Washington). Most recent runs indicate that this low will stay off the Pac NW coast, and drift inland next Fri. So, will just keep next Thu/Fri unsettled with showers. /Rockey

AVIATION
Latest satellite, radar, and mesoanalysis observations as of 230 AM PDT depicts a warm front lifting offshore of the Pacific Northwest, bringing rain, IFR cigs, and MVFR visibility to the coast. Expect predominately MVFR cigs in the Willamette Valley and IFR cigs at the coast through the TAF period as the frontal system pushes inland today. Similar to what is already happening at the coast, light to moderate rainfall may also bring visibility down to MVFR thresholds for inland terminals at times today (20-40% chance). Winds will be south-southwesterly today across all terminals with gusts to 25-30 kt along the coast and 20-25 kt in the Willamette Valley.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. There is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately MVFR cigs through the TAF period as a frontal system pushes inland. Visibility could drop to MVFR thresholds at times with steady, moderate rain. Southerly winds will be around 10-15 kt today. Gusts to 20-25 kt will between 20z Thu - 03z Fri during the frontal passage. Guidance suggests a 10-20% chance of IFR cigs through 00z Fri. -Alviz

MARINE
Mesoanalysis as of 230 AM PDT depicts a warm front lifting over the waters early this (Thu) morning, bringing rain and southerly winds. Expect winds to gradually strengthen this morning as the trailing cold front pushes through. The current Small Craft Advisory remains on track as there is high confidence that the waters will see southwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 kt today. Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible for all waters with the cold frontal passage between 11 AM-3 PM (40-60% chance). Since any gale force gusts will likely be sporadic and temporary, a Gale Warning was not issued. Seas will be choppy and build to around 7-9 ft at 8-9 seconds.

Winds turn more westerly/northwesterly Thursday night into Friday as the low pressure system pushes inland. Winds begin to ease slightly with gusts to 20-25 kt. However, a westerly swell will enter the waters and build seas to around 9-11 ft. These elevated seas are brief, as the swell height falls Friday night to Saturday. The next frontal system arrives on Saturday, will return gusty southwesterly winds. The latest NBM shows a 20-30% chance of gale force wind gusts of 34 kt or greater across the waters Saturday. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory for North Oregon and Lane County Cascades above 4500 feet for this afternoon through Fri evening.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory for South Washington Cascades above 4500 feet for this afternoon through Fri evening.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.

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Tillamook
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Thu -- 02:25 AM PDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:44 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:44 AM PDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:55 PM PDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM PDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
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Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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