Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 9:56 PM   Moonset 6:01 AM

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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 936 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Rest of today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales after midnight. Showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming south 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Showers in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then backing to the east early in the evening increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Rain showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the evening - .then building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south in the late evening and early morning. Showers likely until afternoon - .then a chance of showers until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LHZ300
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FXUS63 KAPX 251011 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 611 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather continues today and tonight.

- Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late.

- Showers and storms continue at times through the weekend into Monday -- including potential for severe storms on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to pivot from the northeast CONUS over the Atlantic today as longwave ridging slides eastward over the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft provided at the inflection point of these features will keep building surface high pressure currently centered overhead gradually eastward today into tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough looks to eject over the southern Great Plains later this evening and tonight, providing ample divergence aloft to support lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas/Nebraska.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather continues today and tonight -- Cold temperatures this morning will quickly warm up after sunrise with cloud-free skies in store through today and tonight. Highs across the area look to climb into the low to mid 50s for most of northern Michigan, aside from those against the lakeshores that may stay in the upper 40s.
Light/calm winds are also anticipated today with lake breezes pushing inland this afternoon and evening. Southeast winds look to gradually strengthen beginning late tonight into Friday morning with overnight lows dipping back into the upper 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the central CONUS will breifly bring a warmer air mass with surface high pressure to the Great Lakes region this Friday. Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Pacific near southern California will progress across the country and return a more active weather pattern at the start of the weekend.

Aforementioned troughing will be centered over the Central Plains at the start of the forecast period. The trough and surface based low pressure will slowly move across the midwest this weekend into early next week, while simultaneously weakening, delivering rounds of thunderstorms and showers through Monday before a more zonal flow pattern takes over by next Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late: Friday starts off dry. High pressure continues to deliver one more day of pleasant weather before a weakening cold front delivers precipitation to parts of the CWA as soon as Friday night. Rainfall will need to saturate the environment from a top down method, so overcoming dry air can delay measurable precipitation until the 12Z timeframe.
Aforementioned low pressure will be weakening as it moves across the Upper Midwest, keeping rainfall pretty low, but CAPE values in the 1500-1800 range and SRH values approaching the 300s will keep the potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon/evening a real possibility. SPC has upgraded the northern lower penisula to a slight risk of severe weather and WPC keeps Michigan under no risk of excessive rainfall, but a general quarter to half inch can be expected through Saturday.

Precipitation will continues at times through the weekend into Monday: Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will persist this weekend as the first trough diminishes and is quickly replaced by another. Showers and storms will continue across the Great Lakes region through Monday. Quiet weather will settle into the region for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS returns surface high pressure to the CWA for the end of April.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies in place. Weak/calm winds are also anticipated for most of the period, with the only caveat being lake breeze formation pushing inland from all lakeshore areas during the afternoon and evening tomorrow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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