Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:29 AM EST (06:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 6:13PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 923 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots after midnight. A chance of showers this evening. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning...then increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of snow showers until late afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales late in the morning...then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of snow showers early in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots until early evening...then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ361 Expires:201711190915;;623579 FZUS63 KDTX 190223 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 923 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.20 inches, will lift across Lake Erie tonight. High pressure, 30.30 inches, then builds across the Ohio Valley for the latter half of the weekend. LHZ361-190915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190450
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1150 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Update
Issued at 959 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
forecast for overnight into Sunday morning is not without
concerns. The basic premise remains unchanged: low pressure over
eastern lk erie will continue to move east. Associated synoptic
precip has exited NE lower mi. Chilly nnw winds behind the low
will contribute to increased over-lake instability. Lake effect
precip has already developed off of lakes superior, mi, and huron.

This activity is light, with rain in coastal areas, mixing with
and turning to snow as you enter the higher elevations.

850mb temps over the upstream lakes are around -6c now, but will
drop into the lower minus teens by daybreak. The colder air will
increase instability over the warm lakes, resulting in more
vigorous lake effect precip overnight, and will eventually turn
coastal areas to snow. Though synoptic support does not exist for
much of the night, a shortwave diving in from the NW should result
in an uptick on superior late in the overnight, and perhaps on
northern lake mi toward morning. Inversion heights of 6-7k ft are
unremarkable.

An not too terribly concerned with eastern upper mi. Prevailing
nnw flow should focus best banding into luce co, with the tail end
getting into western mack. Will adjust accums to allow for circa
2 inches in western mack (south of ery), and will reduce amounts
in chip co.

Hi-res models offer differing solutions, and differing trends,
into NW lower mi. Rap runs have trended drier with time, keeping
liquid QPF less than 0.20 inches thru Sunday morning. Hrrr has
been trending wetter, with the luce co band poking into the 'big
5' counties in northern lower. MAX hrrr QPF is in excess of 0.40
inches along a narrow axis. This is concerning, but hrrr runs are
already producing vigorous banding into upper mi now, and those
vigorous bands are not evident... Not yet. For this reason, will
not be increasing snow amounts in NW lower mi by too much. Will
push MAX snowfall in northern lower mi eastward tonight, to
between m-66 and i-75, with MAX accums thru morning of 2-3 inches.

When combined with expected snowfall Sunday morning, we're getting
right to the edge of advisory-level accums. Am not going to jump
on this yet, but will be keeping an eye out. If banding on
superior becomes more prominent on mqt montreal rvr radars, and or
obs out of ery show the same, could well pop an advisory later
this evening.

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 345 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
high impact weather potential: slick spots on area roadways possibly
developing tonight. Snow covered and slippery roadways possible
Sunday.

Lake effect kicking in...

synoptic moisture peels out to the northeast through this evening as
low pressure continues to track by to our south. Progressively
colder air then advects in behind the departing system increasing
over lake instability through Sunday. This will lead to the
development of northerly flow lake effect rain and snow showers
later this afternoon which will change to snow early tonight. The
flow will back overnight into the north northwest before finally
settling into the northwest late tonight into Sunday as lake effect
snow continues. Activity may become enhanced and more widespread for
a time Sunday as a short wave drops down through the flow. Areas
roads may become slick due to falling temperatures and any rain
showers transitioning over to snow showers. Snowfall accumulations
tonight expected to range from 1 to 2 inches along and west of us
131. Accumulations Sunday of 2 to 3 inches are expected in the
normal snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper.

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 400 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
pattern forecast: active pattern continues through next week.

Background pattern remains positive pna, with high amplitude
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern. A
series of clippers running along the baroclinic zone, and through
the great lakes, will provide periodic reinforcement of the
eastern troughing with colder air helping to deepen the troughing.

The currently negative, and forecast to become more so, arctic
oscillation will certainly help the colder air push south as well.

Much of the week will see this up and down mix of brief height
rises being suppressed by a clipper before a more prolonged cold
push next weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: timing will likely be an
issue, as is often the case with these active clipper patterns.

Another rain to snow transition expected Tuesday.

Any lingering lake effect Sunday night will gradually be shut down
through the morning Monday as high pressure to our south backs the
flow to the SW and increase waa. This will moderate temperatures a
bit, with Monday and Tuesday high temperatures near 40. Though the
Tuesday high will likely be overnight for many areas, as the next
clipper in line will arrive with colder air and precipitation by
early afternoon. Those east of i-75 may see the arrival later in the
afternoon. Precipitation will arrive mostly liquid, with a fairly
quick change over to snow through the afternoon. This should carry
into Wednesday with lake effect. Winds will begin to pickup Monday
night, remaining gusty through Tuesday night.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 345 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
pattern remains progressive through the extended, with clippers
moving through the flow working to suppress height rises trying to
work into the region. This will bring a very familiar period of
clipper system precip, followed by some lake effect, then a brief
clearing. Signs point to a more prolonged visit of cold air starting
Sunday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1147 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
low pressure is moving east across upstate ny. Lake effect
showers (mixed rain snow, though turning to all snow with time)
have developed into northern lower mi. These will become more
extensive overnight into Sunday morning, before starting to
wane. Best snowfall amounts will occur east of tvc. Do expect
occasional vsby restrictions, especially at tvc, perhaps into ifr
territory at times late tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, MVFR to
vfr CIGS will prevail.

Nnw winds will be gusty tonight and Sunday, while gradually
backing to the wnw on Sunday. Winds lighten up Sunday evening.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
lower end gale force gusts are expected for late this afternoon and
tonight for much of lake michigan and huron. This is due to a
tightening pressure gradient on the backside of developing low
pressure that crosses the SRN and eastern great lakes. Solid
advisory winds elsewhere. NW winds taper off some heading through
Sunday afternoon and night while also backing more out of the west,
but gusty conditions still expected due to deep overlake
instability. Rain and snow showers will transition over to lake
effect snow showers tonight into Sunday evening.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lhz345-346.

Gale warning until 7 am est Sunday for lhz349.

Gale warning until 11 am est Sunday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lmz341.

Gale warning until 7 am est Sunday for lmz323-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lsz321-322.

Update... Jz
near term... As
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi59 min NNW 23 35°F 44°F26°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi29 min N 9.9 G 13 37°F
TBIM4 44 mi39 min NNW 11 G 19 37°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi34 minNNW 18 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy36°F27°F71%1001.4 hPa

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Last 24hrSE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN9N7NE6N7NE8N6N10N13N14
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1 day agoCalmSE3S6S6S5S3SE6SE9S8S8
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2 days agoNW10
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N10N6N5N3CalmCalmE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.