Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:11AMSunset 5:25PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:48 AM EST (05:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 1014 Pm Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east late in the morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots late in the evening. Areas of fog. A chance of snow showers late in the afternoon. Snow showers late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Areas of fog early in the morning. Showers. Snow showers. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales early in the evening...then increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
LHZ361 Expires:201801190900;;661236 FZUS63 KDTX 190315 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1014 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure averaging 30.00 inches will remain in place across the Great Lakes region through Saturday. Breezy southwesterly flow ranging between 20 - 30 knots will however be likely during this time frame. The next system is expected to move early next week, where low pressure averaging 29.30 inches pushes northeast from western Iowa into the U.P. late Sunday through early Tuesday. LHZ361-190900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190444
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1144 pm est Thu jan 18 2018

Update
Issued at 1006 pm est Thu jan 18 2018
low cloud deck covers most of northern mi north of m-72, though
the west edge over benzie co is trying to wobble northward.

Meanwhile, increasing mid high clouds are upstream over mn and
surrounding areas. Warm advection will continue to erode overlake
instability and suppress inversion heights, and low cloud deck has
likely gotten about as far south as it will get. But rapid
diminishing of the low clouds will wait until after 12z, when
1000-850mb winds back toward the sw. The higher clouds will
overspread the area during the overnight hours regardless.

The above reasoning, and a persistent SW surface breeze, argue for
adjusting min temps a bit warmer. This is especially the case in
eastern upper mi.

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 355 pm est Thu jan 18 2018

Above normal temperatures, with a small chance of precipitation...

high impact weather potential... Minimal; possible some freezing
drizzle over the northern forecast area Friday.

Primary forecast concerns... Chances and type of precipitation with
mid level dry air in place and upper wave passing through.

Pattern synopsis forecast... At upper levels, a weak 500mb wave
passing over the great lakes currently, will exit east of lake huron
quickly this evening. Upper level flow on the backside of this
exiting wave, will slowly trend nearly zonal across the region on
Friday. 850mb temperatures in this pattern will warm dramatically
from around -4c tonight, to around +8c Friday afternoon. This mid
lvl response, will generate another afternoon with above normal high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across northern michigan Friday
(normal high temps for this date are in the mid 20s). At the
surface, a weakly organized frontal boundary stretched across
northern lake superior this evening, will lift north as clipper from
central canada drops south and pushes into ontario Friday afternoon.

The chances for widespread precipitation will be limited and
hindered through Friday by disorganized forcing and lack of moisture.

500 300mb qvectors show lingering convergence associated with the
500mb weak wave moving over the great lakes currently, quickly
pushing east this evening. 850 700mb qvectors, show the best
convergence over northern michigan developing Friday afternoon as
the canadian clipper drops into ontario. Model soundings show
extremely dry conditions above 800mb across the forecast area
tonight, before moisture increases over ERN upper and straits region
Friday afternoon and evening. This dry air will significantly reduce
this chance for pcpn in general across the CWA through Friday
afternoon. However the concern for drizzle and freezing drizzle
increases as low lvls moisten overnight, while mid lvls remain dry
(a 10kft dry layer above 800mb). Additionally models show some wind
shear near the top of the low lvl mstr layer increasing the chances
for drizzle.

Overall will continue to trend dry through much of the forecast
period. Will mention some drizzle freezing drizzle over extreme nrn
lower mi and east upper mi tonight and Friday where deepest sfc
moisture exists.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 355 pm est Thu jan 18 2018

Milder temperatures...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Primary forecast concerns: none.

Quiet weather to start the period with low pressure moving by to the
north leading to milder air across the region through Saturday. A
strong area of high pressure then builds southeast across central
canada Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, low pressure
emerges out of the four corners region and heads northeast toward
the western great lakes. Warm advection out ahead of this system
will lead to a chance for a little light snow (mainly north) on
Sunday. Highs Saturday in the middle 30s to lower 40s and mainly
the 30s Sunday. Lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s Friday night
and in the lower and middle 20s Saturday night.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 355 pm est Thu jan 18 2018

Wintry precipitation expected...

high impact weather potential... Wintry mix Sunday night into Monday.

Primary forecast concerns: precipitation type Sunday night into
Monday.

Low pressure will emerge east of the rockies, head northeast across
the central plains then on into the western great lakes early next
week. Long range guidance continues to vary as far as the exact
storm track across northern michigan. A majority of the models still
track it across northern lake michigan bringing the warm sector up
into most of northern lower at a minimum (toward the straits). The
latest ECMWF run however is farther south so plenty of uncertainty
remains. The farther south track may be a function of strong high
pressure to the north suppressing it. It's still too early to pin
down the details anyways but expect a messy wintry mixture of rain,
snow, freezing rain and sleet Sunday night into Monday (with a
likely change over to all rain across the southern half of northern
lower). An impact on travel is expected. Precipitation will then
likely change over to some snow later Monday night into Tuesday.

Lake effect snow showers are then expected to round out the
forecast. After a mild start Monday, temperatures will slowly
ease back down to average Tuesday and even be a few degrees below
for midweek.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1144 pm est Thu jan 18 2018
MVFR CIGS into Friday morning pln apn.

Relatively quiet wx for mid-january, with occasional clipper
systems moving in from the wnw, but with no moisture available for
them to do anything. Steadily warmer air will be gradually moving
into the region. That will erode low clouds, which has already
occurred at mbl tvc, but will take until morning at pln apn.

Sw winds will be a bit gusty at times, especially Friday afternoon
and evening.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Sr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi79 min WSW 14 33°F 35°F26°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi29 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 32°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi49 min W 4.1 G 7 32°F 1008.8 hPa (+0.0)24°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi49 min WSW 5.1 G 8 31°F 1006.5 hPa (+0.0)28°F
TBIM4 44 mi59 min SW 9.9 G 11 31°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi54 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast32°F26°F79%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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SW8SW8SW7SW6SW6S5S5S7S6S5SW4S5SW5S6SE4CalmCalmCalmW8W6W6SW5
1 day agoSW6SW4SW7SW7SW7SW7SW10
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2 days agoNE11NE9NE9
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NE8N5NE6NE7N5N4N5NE6N3NW3NW5NW8NW5W4W5W5W6W4W5W6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.