Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Portland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday January 17, 2019 9:06 AM PST (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:48PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 831 Am Pst Thu Jan 17 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through late tonight...
In the main channel.. - general seas...seas 10 and 12 ft, rising to around 20 ft by midday. Seas falling to around 15 to 17 feet by Friday morning and then near 12 ft by Friday afternoon. - first ebb...around 130 pm Thursday. Seas near 23 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 200 am Friday. Seas near 20 ft with breakers likely. - third ebb...a strong ebb around 230 pm Friday. Seas near 14 ft with breakers possible.
PZZ200 831 Am Pst Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A 975 mb low pressure center about 275 nautical miles west of cape disappointment this morning will continue to move north and weaken today and this evening. The next warm front associated with another strong developing pressure area well offshore moves through the waters Friday. Weak high pressure returns to the waters over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland, OR
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location: 45.53, -122.68     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 171123
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
322 am pst Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis A vigorous low off the oregon coast will push northeast
today. This will maintain showery weather across much of the region,
along with breezy conditions. Next system will push into the region
later Friday, with rain increasing. This will bring heavy rain at
times Fri night. This front will stall to our south sat, but lifts
back across the area Sat night. Rainy weather for Sat night and sun.

Then showers decreasing, with drier weather to start next week.

Short term Today through Saturday... Great swirling low sitting off
the oregon coast this am. This low will continue to track to the
north-northeast today, and into vancouver island tonight. Bands of
showers will move onshore today into tonight.

Have limited boost of instability this am, and feel just enough to
support an isolated thunderstorm or two along the oregon coast and
extending offshore. Will keep that in the forecast for this am. Main
effects from the low will be the increasing southerly winds today
along the coast, and over the higher terrain. Will see gusts 45 to 55
mph along the coast, with the higher winds relegated to those
headlands and open beaches that typically feel strong south winds.

These south winds will bring milder temperatures to the region, with
highs getting into the lower 50s. For inland areas that have seen
some chilly days recently, this chance will feel quite spring like.

Even the east winds in and around the columbia gorge will gradually
ease today, and become westerly later this evening.

Speaking of the gorge, weather will be a mixed bag this am.

Temperatures west of cascade locks have hovered just above freezing
this am, and feel that will continue to be the case through this am.

So, will end the winter weather advisory for that area. But to east
of cascade locks, temperatures generally 31 to 33 deg. Any
precipitation will likely fall as snow or sleet, or a combination of
snow, sleet and freezing rain at times this am. But, think amounts
will be light, with generally less than an inch of new snow.

Snow has subsided in the hood river valley, with just occasional
flurries early this am. Generally, have seen about 2 to 5 inches of
snow in the valley overnight, with heaviest accumulations from odell
southward to parkdale. Will continue to see occasional snow showers
this am, with an inch or less of new snow. But, like in the gorge,
can not rule out some spotty light freezing rain or sleet at times.

Will maintain winter weather advisory through 10 am for the central
columbia gorge and the upper hood river valley.

Snow levels holding around 4000 feet for the cascades, where will see
another 3 to 6 inches of snow today and again tonight, but bit less
over lane county where snow levels will be higher.

Noaa satellite imagery shows next wave developing out at 34n 156w,
and has decent tap of subtropical moisture feeding it. This is the
system that will arrive later fri, with warm front lifting across
western oregon. So, will see rain increasing Fri afternoon ahead of
the warm front. Models continue to be rather aggressive with qpf, and
agree with the trends. Even models have a plume of precipitable water
values of 1.25+ aimed at western oregon by Fri evening, then this
shifts southward overnight. So, this should support rather modest
rainfall amounts for Fri night, with heavy rain at times, especially
along the coast and coastal mountains. Rainfall likely in 1.50 to
3.00 inches of rain for the coast and coast mountains. But, even
these estimates may be on the low side, as typically models are bit
low on rainfall totals in these setups. Farther inland, generally
around an inch for i5 corridor and willamette valley. Snow levels
rising, so even cascades will see just rain falling at the passes fri

Front shifts inland and southward early Saturday, with rain
transitioning to showers. But with the front not too far south, will
see more steady rain continuing over lane county and into the oregon

Another beach hazard expected Thursday and Thursday night is large
surf. A high surf warning has been issued for the central oregon
coast, and a high surf advisory for the north oregon and south
washington coast. The gfs-based enp wave guidance and ECMWF wave
model continue to show 20-25 ft waves impacting the surf zone
Thursday through Friday morning. 12z spectral guidance for buoy 050
indicates peak wave heights of 25 ft with a dominant period around 17
seconds beginning late Thu morning. This happens to occur a couple
hours after peak high tide. Our local coastal flood index tool
indicates an energy index of 160-170 with a 30-degree incidence angle
offset (swell direction 240 deg vs. 270 deg). This is very close to
high surf warning criteria. The tool also output a coastal flood
index (cfi) of 20-21. Typically 22 is the threshold for coastal flood
warning. Based on recorded impacts from previous events, opted to go
with a high surf warning for the central oregon coast. Overall wave
energy will be a little lower for the north oregon and south
washington coast so went with a high surf advisory. rockey.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday... As the upper level
trough responsible for the atmospheric river shifts overhead Sunday,
precipitation should turn more showery in nature, and the snow levels
will lower. An upper trough will maintain showers through Sunday with
snow levels around 4500-5500 feet. Models are in great agreement that
an upper level ridge will build Monday and Tuesday for drier weather,
and cooler nights. ~tj

Aviation Apart from fog down around eug, dry easterly flow is
keeping all other terminalsVFR. With increasing southerly winds
over the next few hours, expect eug will clear out toVFR as
well.VFR conditions continue through this morning, with showers
picking back up midday today. Heavier showers could occasionally
lower CIGS and vis to MVFR. Otherwise, predominantlyVFR
conditions continue through tonight.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions this morning. Showers
increasing midday today. CIGS and vis could occasionally lower to
MVFR under heavier showers. PredominantlyVFR conditions continue
through tonight. East winds continue through the columbia gorge,
with gusts to 35 kt at ttd, but 10 to 15 kt near pdx. Winds will
turn southerly at pdx this afternoon, but east winds will likely
continue close to the columbia gorge. -mccoy

Marine Strong 972 mb low pressure system off the coast of
oregon today. This is generating southerly gales across our
coastal waters. This will also bring in large swell, building
seas to 25 to 28 feet, 30 feet just to our south off the coast of
southern oregon. Seas peak around midday today through this
afternoon, around the same time winds are peaking with gusts up
to 45 knots. Winds will be decreasing this evening as the low
lifts off to our north. This will also allow for seas to drop
below 20 feet by Friday morning.

Another strong low pressure system is expected to come up from
the south, tracking fairly similarly to the system today. This
will bring another round of high-end gales Friday and Friday
night. We will also see seas peak back up around 20 feet late
Friday night into Saturday morning.

Unsettled pattern continues into the weekend, but behind the
Friday system, nothing looks as strong as these previous two
systems in the models at this time. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am pst Friday
for north oregon coast.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst this morning for
central columbia river gorge-upper hood river valley.

High surf warning from 10 am this morning to 10 am pst Friday
for central oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am pst Friday
for south washington coast.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst this morning for
central columbia river gorge.

Pz... Gale warning until 10 pm pst this evening for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 am
pst Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 42 mi42 min 42°F998.1 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 66 mi42 min 51°F995.8 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 74 mi36 min S 1.9 G 7 45°F 44°F994.7 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi13 minESE 910.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%999.6 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR7 mi13 minESE 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F35°F76%999.7 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR14 mi13 minESE 510.00 miOvercast42°F39°F89%999 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR15 mi13 minE 23 G 3210.00 miOvercast and Windy41°F34°F76%1000 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR19 mi13 minSE 610.00 miOvercast43°F37°F82%999.3 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR20 mi13 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F39°F93%999.6 hPa

Wind History from PDX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE11E14E15E14E12E16
1 day agoNE4E13
2 days agoE21

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.