Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 11:44 AM   Moonset 2:54 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 154 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 15 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - An upper trough grazes the region to the northeast through Tuesday. This will be followed by a ridge of high pressure building overhead starting Wednesday and persisting through the week. As a result rather benign conditions are expected across all waters moving forward.

FXUS66 KPQR 160443 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 942 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Updated aviation discussion...

SYNOPSIS
Onshore flow will maintain plenty of clouds and cooler temperatures across the region through Tuesday, along with a few showers. High pressure builds across region for Wednesday to Friday, with return of dry weather and warming temperatures. Bit more unsettled for next weekend, with more clouds and perhaps even some showers.

UPDATE
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning...Confidence has increased for widespread frost across northwest OR and southwest WA Tuesday night through 9am Wednesday. High pressure, clear skies, and light winds will bring a perfect setup for radiational cooling, allowing temps to dip into the low to mid 30s across all of northwest OR and southwest WA. The exception looks to be the immediate coastline where temps will likely stay in the upper 30s, but you won't have to go far inland for temps to dip into the mid 30s. In fact, some inland coastal communities could fall below freezing (best chance at Tillamook where the EPS mean is around 30 degrees for overnight lows; seems reasonable given the setup). Given the widespread frost expected, decided to issue a Frost Advisory for southwest WA and northwest OR from the coast to the Cascades (except for the high Cascades as we do not issue frost/freeze headlines for these zones). The only exception is the Upper Hood River Valley zone where a Freeze Warning has been issued for temps between 29-32F (this zone looks to be coldest). Anyone with outdoor vegetation that is sensitive to cold temperatures should bring their plants indoors if possible, or take other appropriate actions to prevent frost damage.
-TK

SHORT TERM
Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Radar imagery shows showers across NW Oregon and SW Washington this afternoon, mainly north of Salem and over the Cascades as a weakening upper trough continues slowly pushing into the region today, though main core of the system remains well to the north over north Washington into southern British Columbia. The system offshore is not all that strong with rather zonal flow aloft off the Pacific into the Pacific NW today into tonight. Rainfall amounts will be very meager with up to 0.1 to 0.2 inch over the south Washington Cascades into the far north Oregon Cascades. Likely to see only a trace to perhaps up to 0.05 inch for inland lowlands. Onshore flow will maintain plenty of clouds today, with some gaps in the clouds from time to time.
Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the mid to upper 50s in the lowlands, slightly below mid-April normals.

Overall, not a lot of change for the region for Tuesday, as will maintain moderate onshore flow with mostly zonal upper level flow.
The shower potential will be more limited to SW Washington as well as the higher terrain north of Tillamook to Portland to Mt Hood line. Surface ridge axis will be shifting northward slowly during the afternoon. As such, would expect to see clouds breaking apart, mainly over western Oregon. Would not be surprised if Salem southward through the Eugene/Springfield area becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.

High pressure offshore continues to strengthen on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Air mass will be drier Tuesday night, and with clearing skies and light winds, temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s over most of the region away from the immediate coast.
Most locations are likely to see frost Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, after a chilly start, should end up with rather pleasant Wednesday, with sunny skies and a warming trend beginning with temperatures 55 to 60 along the coast and 60 to 65 for most of the interior lowlands east of the Coast Range/Willapa Hills. - Rockey/HEC

LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WPC 500 mb cluster analysis indicates that ensembles are in agreement that upper level ridging will continue building over the eastern Pacific and shift east to just off the West Coast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, high pressure strengthens off the coast with a thermal trough building north from California into western Oregon. Due to this, sunny skies and a warming trend will continue across NW Oregon and SW Washington. Inland valley temperatures will inch towards the 70s once again with NBM indicating 55-75% of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees on Thursday and a 70-85% probably of the same on Friday.
This pattern will also result in increased surface pressure gradients over the Cascades and Columbia River Valley, producing increased offshore (easterly) winds for areas near the Columbia River and Cascades, strongest through the Columbia River Gorge. NBM indicates roughly 50-70% probability of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph Thursday and Friday for the Cascades and locations north of Salem.
Additionally, NBM indicates a 60-80% probability for wind gusts to exceed 45 mph for the Columbia River Gorge Friday.

Beyond Friday, ensembles are still uncertain at the exact pattern.
About 30% of the 500 mb clusters indicate ridging will continue through the weekend, which would allow for warm and dry conditions to continue. About 50% of the clusters indicate ridging will begin to weaken or even become more zonal flow, which would allow temperatures to cool somewhat, potentially back to seasonal normals (low 60s for inland locations, upper 50s for the coast). The other 20% or so of the clusters indicate weak troughing will impact the region, bringing near to below normal temperatures and light showers. No matter which solution winds up occurring, no impactful weather is expected in the extended period. -HEC

AVIATION
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with mid to high level cloud cover tonight. Winds will be light and from the north/northwest through Tuesday morning. Onshore flow pressure gradients tighten slightly early Tuesday afternoon, leading to breezier NW winds with gusts up to 20 kt along the coast and parts of the Willamette Valley. Skies begin to clear up more Tuesday evening as high pressure builds and the air mass above dries up.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds prevail through the TAF period.
NW winds will be around 5-10 kt, strongest in the afternoon/evening.
-Alviz

MARINE
Late tonight through early Tuesday the region gets brushed by an upper-level trough dropping into northeast Washington.
Midweek and continuing into the weekend, guidance continues to show a ridging pattern developing which would likely lead to continued N/NE surface flow. Friday and continuing into the weekend with seas around 4 to 6 feet at 13 to 15 seconds. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ101>120-122>125.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ121.

WA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for WAZ201>210.

PZ...None.

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Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

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