Thursday, March22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Garibaldi, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday March 22, 2018 2:38 AM PDT (09:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 823 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 21 2018
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 12 seconds. SEcondary swell S 4 ft at 8 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers.
Fri..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 9 ft at 5 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft. Chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 6 ft. Chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Mon..W wind 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ200 823 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 21 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak frontal system moves across the waters overnight and Thursday morning. A stronger front moves across the waters Thursday night and Friday morning. A low pressure system approaches Friday then moves south around 200 miles offshore the oregon coast Saturday before weakening and moving south of the waters on Sunday. Weak high pressure builds Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garibaldi, OR
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location: 45.57, -123.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 220311
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
810 pm pdt Wed mar 21 2018
updated short term and aviation discussions

Synopsis A large area of precipitation spreading into california
today will move into western oregon this evening and will overspread
the entire area tonight. Total rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inch is expected
in the valleys with 1 to 2 inches at elevation. An extended period of
cold weather behind this front will bring rain showers with mountain
snow showers through the weekend. Snow levels may drop as low as 1000
to 1500 feet on Saturday, but no snow is expected in the willamette
valley. Cool and mostly dry pattern continues through the first part
of next week.

Short term Today through Saturday... Made changes to the forecast
on Saturday. The 18z GFS came in with the low moving onto the coast
on Saturday afternoon evening, bringing a better chance for
precipitation across the southern half of our area, generally south
of salem. Decided to bump up pops and introduce a slight chance of
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening across the area, though
the slightly better chance will be south of salem, where pops are a
bit higher. Sfc CAPE values up to 650 j kg, and LI values around -1.5
to -2.5 suggest sufficient instability for a thunderstorm or two
inland in this area. Also bumped up QPF accordingly. Otherwise, no
changes in the shorter term. Previous discussion follows. -mccoy
first round of rain lifted through western oregon this afternoon as
an area of deep moisture continues to push into the region.

Precipitation rates will intensify this evening as the upper trough
and cold front approach the area. The combination of strong forcing
and pw values near the 90th percentile will lead to a period of
moderate to heavy rain this evening. Initially, snow levels will be
too high for any snow at pass level, but snow levels will drop
through the day Thursday with accumulation expected down to at least
2000 feet starting Thursday evening and through Saturday. During the
showers on Saturday, snow levels will be hovering between 1000 and
1500 feet. Therefore, some of the higher hills in the willamette
valley may see some snow mixing in with the rain showers. However, at
this time do not anticipate much if any accumulations in this 1000 to
1500 foot range, and expect roadways to remain wet. Did not make any
significant changes to the snow forecast with 10 to 20 inches still
expected for the cascades and 3 to 10 inches of snow expected above
pass level in the coast range willapa hills. Bentley

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday. Forecast models in
slightly better agreement today concerning the weekend and into
early next week. The upper level trough is expected to advance
inland into far southern oregon or northern california late Saturday
night before reaching the great basin on Sunday. This will enable a
cold air mass to move into the pacific northwest and maintain lower
snow levels (1,500 to 2,000 feet) through Sunday afternoon or
evening. Meanwhile, a building upper level ridge over the pacific
will eventually bring rising heights late Sunday through the start
of next week. While showers will continue in the northwest flow
aloft on Sunday, the flow will turn to a more north or perhaps
northeast direction early next week. Thus, restricted mention of
precipitation to a slight chance on Monday and removed all mention
of pops starting Monday night. Depending on the strength and
position of the ridge, it is possible some light precipitation may
be possible across the northern portions of the area at times given
some weak impulses embedded in the flow. Given this pattern, have
trended temperatures gradually warmer for the start of next, with
temperatures again approaching 60 in the interior lowlands for the
middle of next week. cullen

Aviation MostlyVFR conditions for NW or and SW wa Wed evening,
with a few areas of MVFR and ifr conditions, mainly along the coast.

As rain continues overnight and into Thu morning, expect to see MVFR
conditions becoming more widespread, ESP between 08z and 17z, along
and ahead of a cold front moving inland. Behind the front, expect
predominantlyVFR conditions to return after 17z.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR likely to prevail tonight and Thursday,
although there is a good chance of seeing MVFR CIGS develop for a
while with the steadier rain late tonight, mainly between 10z and

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows. A weak warm front
will move across the waters tonight for light and variable winds and
low seas. A cold front follows close behind Thursday morning. West
winds will increase behind this front Thursday morning and seas will
begin to build. The winds and seas will intensify more Thursday
afternoon as the next stronger front approaches. Expect small craft
conditions for the waters Thursday afternoon. There may be a brief
period of gale gusts Thursday night south of cascade head. Right now
these gusts look very short lived and over a small area so opted to
not issue a gale watch. However if the 00z models strengthen the
winds or become more in agreement with each other, a gale warning
may be needed for the southern waters.

The seas will build above 10 feet Thursday afternoon peaking at
12 to 14 feet late Thursday night and subsiding below 10 feet
Friday night or Saturday morning. The seas will be a mix of wind
wave, fresh SW swell and distant source NW swell. ~tj

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 5 am Thursday to 5 am pdt
Friday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 5 pm Thursday to 5
pm pdt Friday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to cascade head or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 11 am Thursday to 5 am pdt
Friday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 5 pm Thursday to 5
pm pdt Saturday for coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi57 min 50°F1001.4 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 45 mi51 min Calm G 1 44°F 46°F1000.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 46 mi39 min 47°F4 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 49 mi49 min SSW 12 G 14 46°F 49°F4 ft1000.1 hPa (-1.4)41°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR12 mi64 minN 05.00 miDrizzle45°F42°F93%1001.7 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmW6W5CalmCalmW4CalmSW4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW8W8NW11NW10W10NW11W9CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W5NW10NW12NW9W11W12CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Thu -- 12:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:59 AM PDT     7.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM PDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Thu -- 12:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:11 AM PDT     7.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM PDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:48 PM PDT     2.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.