Monday, December18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Garibaldi, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 4:32PM Monday December 18, 2017 1:04 AM PST (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 911 Pm Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 4 am pst Monday...
.gale watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon..NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the se 4 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves S 7 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Tue..S wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts 40 to 45 kt. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..W wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves W 7 ft at 8 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds, subsiding to 11 ft at 14 seconds after midnight. Showers likely.
Wed..NW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts 30 to 35 kt. Combined seas 15 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 13 ft.
Thu..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 9 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 911 Pm Pst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak cold front will move through the waters overnight. Low pressure dropping south from the gulf of alaska Mon and Tue will result in a surface low forming along the stalled frontal boundary. This will bring a strong cold front with gale force winds Tue. A secondary low will move through Wed. Then conditions generally ease and improve for late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garibaldi, OR
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location: 45.57, -123.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 180514
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
912 pm pst Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis Cool and cloudy weather will continue through Monday with
light rain or drizzle in southwest washington and far northwest
oregon with a bit of snow for the cascades from mt hood northward. A
strong front will arrive on tue, with increasing winds and rain, and
snow for the cascades. Showery conditions on Wed with snow levels as
low as 1500 feet. Coldest air of the season will move into the
pacific NW for the latter part of the week and into next weekend.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... Only a few changes were
made to the forecast this evening; these mainly centered decreasing
pops for the central and southern portions of our CWA tonight and
Monday. The stationary front bringing rain to much of western wa will
likely remain struggle to move south of the pdx metro area as low
pressure develops along the front upstream. There may be a few
periods of light rain in the willamette valley north of salem, but
the more significant rainfall will likely remain concentrated closer
to the front in SW washington. Model theta-e rh fields seem to
support the idea that the best isentropic lift will remain north of
the or wa border until Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the previous
forecast looks to be in good shape and made no changes to the
short long term forecast discussions below. Weagle
nearly stationary pattern for the next 24 hours as the bulk of the
moisture remains north of our area with nothing more than some light
drizzle and rain showers for far NW oregon and SW washington. The
front will start to drift south by Monday afternoon which will start
to increase precipitation coverage across southwest washington by the
afternoon hours. After this time, the front will slow and start to
lift back north ahead of an approaching surface low. The big moisture
push will arrive Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the
surface low rapidly strengthens to somewhere between 995 mb and 1000
mb and a strong front pushes through the area. Given how wet this
front is, it may ruin any chance for the all-time driest december on
record with over an inch of precipitation forecast for the lowlands.

In addition to the heavy precipitation, gusty winds can also be
expected with this front. While areas along the coast will likely
stay shy of high wind warning criteria, windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 50 mph are likely, especially along beaches and

While the rain and wind will be impactful, the most significant
aspect of this front will be the pattern change it signifies. Snow
levels will fall rapidly behind this front as some of the coldest air
of the season moves into the pacific northwest. The snow forecast in
the cascades is difficult as rain will change to snow at pass level
somewhere during the middle of the precipitation. For now, have
around half of the precipitation falling as rain with another half
falling as snow, but slight timing differences with the cold air or
lower snow levels from heavy precipitation rates could change these
snow totals significantly. Therefore, considering it is still 48+
hours out and there is still some uncertainty, will not be issuing
any watches, warnings, or advisories at this time, but will need to
continue to monitor. By Wednesday, snow levels will be between 1500
and 2000 feet as showers persist across the area. A weak surface low
will drop south along the coast as the upper wave moves through the
area. While this pattern can be favorable for snow for the lowlands,
onshore flow persists through the period and cold air aloft isn't
quite cold enough to support snow down to the valley floor. However,
cannot rule out a few flakes mixing in below 1000 feet, especially
during heavier showers. Bentley

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... Made significant
changes in the long term forecast to account for much colder airmass
due to retrogression of the longwave ridge which has dominated our
weather for the past 2 weeks. This will allow several reinforcing
shots of cold air to move into the columbia basin and lead to an
extended period of colder than normal temperatures.

The long term period will begin with dry conditions as building
heights will quickly bring any rain and snow showers to an end
Wednesday evening. This dry period will continue through Thursday
night before a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives on Friday. While
models have been showing this shortwave for several days, today's 12z
model runs are all more consolidated with the upper energy and dig
the shortwave further west than previous runs. Therefore, despite the
surface low having a similar track to the weak surface wave on
Wednesday, this wave will be bringing colder air aloft. While current
guidance is still keeping snow levels just above the valley floor
(500 to 1000 feet), this front will bring a much better chance for
the lowlands to see a few snowflakes mixing in than the Wednesday
system, especially once the winds become northeast as the surface low
moves by to the west. Beyond Friday, dry continental air will end any
precipitation chances and the primary focus will shift toward an
increasingly arctic airmass settling into the area.

While operational models have only recently shifted the upper ridge
westward and hinted at the cold air outbreak making it west of the
rockies, ensembles had been showing this solution for several days
now which gave enough confidence to significantly lower temperatures
next weekend. While the forecast low for next Saturday is now near
the GFS ensemble mean, it is still warmer than many of the 12z
ensemble members. 2 3rds of the members have overnight lows between
15f and 18f while the ensemble mean is elevated due to 2 extremely
warm members (34f and 40f). Further retrogression of this ridge could
lead to even colder temperatures than currently forecast, especially
given the projected magnitude of this arctic high. While a 1060 mb +
(or 1070 mb if you believe the gem or jma) high pressure center seems
unlikely, it is worth noting that ECMWF also has a 1063 mb high and
the GFS only a few mb shy of 1060 mb. The exact magnitude of this
high is not important, but it does show the intensity of the arctic
air moving south along the front range of the rockies. In addition,
given the extensive snow cover over most of british columbia, there
will be very little modification of the airmass before it arrives in
the pacific nw. Given the model trend for retrogression of the upper
ridge across the NE pacific, would not be surprised if the columbia
basin high ends up being as strong or stronger than the surface high
east of the rockies in montana. In addition to the cold dry air this
weather pattern would bring to our area, this will bring concerns for
strong gap winds by early next week as cross cascade gradients
increase. Bentley

Aviation As of 9 pm, conditions are generallyVFR over the
interior and a mix of MVFR ifr at the coast. Expect little change
over the next several hours. However, a weak cold front will
move onshore overnight into Mon morning. Expect that this will
result in increasing MVFR CIGS over the interior, especially for
areas north of ksle. South of ksle may remain mostlyVFR, with
potential for some patchy ifr fog in the early morning hrs.

The coast should remain a mix of MVFR ifr overnight. A warm
front will lift north Mon afternoon and evening, which will
likely result in conditions being slow to improve tomorrow. There
should be some lifting of the CIGS from south to north during
the late afternoon and evening. A precipitation band will remain
mainly north of the CWA over the next 24 hrs, but the north coast
will likely see persistent light rain or drizzle. The northern
interior sites may also likely see light rain at times.

Pdx and approaches...VFR through the evening. A cold front will
likely bring MVFR CIGS in by around 12z, which likely persist
into the afternoon. Conditions should gradually improve later mon
afternoon and especially in the evening. Occasional light rain is
expected through the next 24 hrs. Pyle

Marine A weak cold front will move through the waters
overnight. This frontal boundary is keeping the pres gradient
tight enough to generate 20 to 25 kt wind gusts over the northern
coastal zones. The winds will subside behind the cold front, and
the small craft advisory for winds is currently set to expire at
4 am. There will be a lull in the winds for much of the day mon.

However, an upper level low pressure system dropping south from
the gulf of alaska will result in a surface low forming along the
stalled cold frontal boundary mon. The low is fcst to move
onshore along vancouver island or the olympic peninsula tue
morning. This low will bring a sharp cold front through the
waters Mon night and tue. The fcst models are in pretty good
agreement with this system, and expect that we will see a period
of solid gale force southerly winds ahead of and along the cold
front. A secondary low is modeled to swing down Tue night and
wed, which might NW post frontal winds on the gusty side. Then
winds decrease considerably later Wed through Fri as higher pres
builds into the waters.

Seas have increased a bit tonight, and are currently around 8-10
ft, which is right in line with the enp model. They will drop a
foot or two mon. Then the strong front Mon night and Tue is
expected to push seas into the mid teens, where they will likely
remain through wed. Seas subside below 10 ft for Thu and fri.


Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 4 am pst Monday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 am to
6 am pst Monday.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 pm to
7 pm pst Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi46 min 51°F1020.2 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 45 mi46 min S 14 G 19 50°F 1017.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 46 mi34 min 49°F8 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 49 mi74 min SW 18 G 19 52°F 51°F9 ft1017.7 hPa (-0.5)52°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR12 mi69 minSE 64.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmS4SE5--S4S4S7CalmCalmCalmSE6SE4SE4SE3S5
1 day agoCalmE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoSE5CalmSE3CalmSE3W4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW11

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Mon -- 12:47 AM PST     6.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 AM PST     3.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:37 AM PST     7.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:21 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:55 PM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Mon -- 12:59 AM PST     6.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM PST     3.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:48 AM PST     8.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:21 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:56 PM PST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.