Wednesday, November22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 2:59 AM PST (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 222 Am Pst Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar conditions until 10 today...then again 5 pm to 9 pm today...
In the main channel..Combined seas 8 to 9 ft through tonight. However, seas temporarily near 13 ft with breakers possible during the ebbs. Ebbs will occur around 645 am and 645 pm today.
PZZ200 222 Am Pst Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Broad area of low pres will remain offshore for next several days. Cold front will slowly push across the coastal waters tonight, and inland early Thu am. Break in the weather for later Thu through Fri. The next strong front will arrive on Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA
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location: 45.65, -122.77     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 220537 cca
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service portland or
936 pm pst Tue nov 21 2017
corrected issuance time

Synopsis Wet and unsettled weather will continue this week. A
largely occluded frontal boundary is stretched over the region this
evening with breezy to windy conditions along the coast. The front
will drift south as a weak cold front tonight and Wednesday for more
rain, especially near the coast and in the north interior areas.

Snow levels in the cascades will remain relatively high. A better
defined cold front sweeps across on thanksgiving with snow levels in
the cascades lowering close to, but likely remaining above the
passes Thursday night and Friday. Showers linger Friday before the
next system arrives on the weekend with rising cascade snow levels.

Snow levels lower back near the cascade passes again Sunday night
and Monday.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Complex structure to the air
mass over the CWA this evening. A frontal boundary lifted north as a
warm front this evening, but stalled a little south of where models
anticipated it would be. Have seen rain amounts over N oregon s
washington coast and adjoining mountains exceed previous
expectations by about double with local areas near triple.

Unfortunately, one such area was over the headwaters of the grays
river in wahkiakum county. Runoff has brought the grays river a
couple feet above flood stage as of the last 3 hour reporting block.

Issued a flood warning earlier this evening when the prior set of
data indicated the river had risen above flood stage after having
sat a few beet below. Rain rates across that area are running about
a third of an inch an hour. Satellite imagery and radar data implies
the rates should be getting weaker overall which would likely end
the rising waters, but will not know the actual resulting effect
until the next river stage data block is received from the
washington department of ecology gage after 1130 pm. Other rivers
along the north oregon south washington coasts are rising but not as

Other effects from the occluded front were a burst of warm downslope
wind for the south willamette valley where eugene spiked up several
degrees mid-afternoon resulting in a new record of 67 degrees for
the date. The warm air made it well north along the coast, but the
easterly winds through the gorge managed to draw cooler air
westward. Hood river through about bonneville are running about 10
degrees cooler than the rest of the forecast area with temperatures
in the lower to mid 40s.

Suspect the frontal boundary will not move all that much overnight
with temperatures not likely straying much from where they are now.

Did add additional QPF to the forecast across the northern coastal
zones, but still indicated overall diminishing to the rates until
the next frontal wave arrives tomorrow evening and overnight. Jbonk
remaining previous discussion follows: the next cold front
approaches the coast Wednesday night and moves through the forecast
area midday on thanksgiving. Snow levels will remain high initially
with this system. The front will move east of the cascades later in
the day on thanksgiving. There will be a fair amount of showers in
onshore flow behind the front Thursday night with snow levels
lowering to near cascade pass elevations overnight, and the greatest
coverage and intensity over the cascades and the coastal mountains.

The models indicate that showers will continue into Friday, but
there could be some drying in the south part of the area, from about
salem southward, by afternoon.

Rainfall totals through Friday could reach 3-6 inches in the cascades
and in the coastal mountains (heaviest amounts in the north), with
0.5-1.5 inches in the valleys. Tolleson

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... The models say the next
system spreads in with more rain Saturday as snow levels rising well
above the cascade passes. Snow levels drop back near the passes in
showers behind the front on Sunday. A cool system moves through
Sunday night and Monday with more rain and mountain snow, followed by
decreasing precipitation on Tuesday. Basically the unsettled weather
pattern will continue. Tolleson

Aviation Moist south to southwest flow will continue over the
region through wed. Ill-defined frontal boundary along the coast
will shift slowly inland overnight and wed. Generally a mix of
vfr and MVFR and this trend not expected to change much over the
next 24 hours. In general, expect increasingVFR coverage after
15z wed. Low-level offshore gradient continues to weaken this
evening with the 04z kttd-kdls value down to -2.7 mb. Models show
this gradient becoming nearly neutral by Wed afternoon. All
inland TAF sites have enough wind to keep low-levels mixed and
prevent ifr or worse from occurring. However, sites such as kuao
and possibly khio could see ifr CIGS develop late tonight and wed
morning should the wind go calm or light. Very moist low-levels
and reasonably high dew points will allow fog to form quite
rapidly in light or calm wind.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions to be the dominant flight
category through Wed afternoon. However, there will be periods
of MVFR vis in precipitation. There will be enough e-se surface
wind to prevent ifr CIGS from developing at the terminal and east
toward the columbia gorge. Weishaar

Marine Minimal changes to the forecast this evening. Will
extend the gale warning through 12z Wed as 00z guidance shows
boundary layer wind speeds generally 25-35 kt. Wind speeds ease a
little wed. However, another surface low is forecast to develop
well offshore late Wed night and track northeast to the n
washington coast Thu morning. This will tighten the pressure
gradient once again, resulting in another round of gale force
wind. Weak high pressure will bring short break in the active
weather pattern Friday. Longer range models show another strong
system impacting the waters Saturday.

Seas running 12-15 ft as of 04z, which is at least 3 ft lower
than the 12 hr enp guidance. Wave heights expected to hover in
the 12-15 ft range through Wed evening, then ease a little wed
night and thu. Seas forecast to fall near 10 ft fri, but get
close to 20 ft Sat evening. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale warning until 4 am pst Wednesday for coastal waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 4 am to
10 am pst Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 33 mi42 min 50°F1015.5 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi42 min 53°F1015.8 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 65 mi42 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 62°F 50°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi67 minVar 310.00 miOvercast50°F48°F96%1016.5 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi67 minESE 610.00 miOvercast49°F48°F97%1016.5 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR10 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast51°F50°F96%1016.3 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi67 minSSE 49.00 miOvercast57°F55°F96%1016 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR21 mi67 minE 16 G 2310.00 miOvercast50°F46°F86%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SE83CalmSE4SE8SE11E10SE9
1 day agoE4E9E7E9S8S9
2 days agoS4CalmE55E5E5E6SE4SE6SE8SE8SE6S6S7SE5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Kelley Point
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Wed -- 04:42 AM PST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM PST     7.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:37 PM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:17 PM PST     8.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Knapp Landing, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Knapp Landing
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Wed -- 03:54 AM PST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM PST     7.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:49 PM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:17 PM PST     8.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.