Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:58 PM   Moonset 4:06 AM

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FXUS66 KPQR 200501 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1000 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Updated aviation discussion...

SYNOPSIS
High pressure holding steady over the region through tonight, with east to northeast winds on the west slopes of the Cascades and to some degree, the Coast Range. Cooler for Saturday, as a front moves across the region. This could result in spotty light rain into Saturday night. Dry and mild conditions return by the start of the upcoming week, with cooler showery weather returning by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A pattern change is on deck as a weak frontal system is expected to cross over the region starting late tonight/early Saturday morning. This will bring cooler daytime highs Saturday and Sunday. Offshore flow will slowly weaken and become onshore through the overnight hours, which will enable cooler marine air to infiltrate across the region. Models have slowed the front, and current guidance have light rain starting along the coast Saturday morning and arriving inland by the afternoon. At this time current guidance has this being a typical spring high PoP/low QPF event with the coast having around 0.10 to 0.20 inches, inland areas having 0.05 to 0.10 inches and the Cascades having 0.15 to 0.25 inches.
Also, with the onshore flow a.k.a. the air conditioning and clouds, expect daytime highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Saturday and low 50s to low 60s on Sunday. The pattern changes again Sunday/Monday as high pressure offshore will start building inland. This will end the shower potential, with morning marine clouds giving way to mixture of sunshine and clouds for the start of the upcoming week. -42


LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...The early part of next week will be characterized by a short wave ridge across the West Coast. Dry and mild conditions are expected under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures across the interior valleys will reach into the upper 60s to near 70 with a bump into the low 70s on Tuesday. A series of disturbances will approach the PNW toward the middle/end of next week. The first disturbance looks like it will be on the weaker side but could bring increasing clouds, cooler temps, and very light rain. The second disturbance will follow quickly on the heels of the first later in the week and could bring a better shot of rain to the area.
Model guidance varies at this point regarding timing and strength so changes should be monitored in the coming days.
-Batz



AVIATION
Predominately VFR thresholds prevail tonight as high pressure slowly shifts eastward. Expect increasing high level clouds as the next system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds will generally be variable and around 5 kt or less tonight. After 16-18z Sat, cigs across the region will fall to low-end VFR as the front moves closer.

Expect the front to reach the coast around 18-21z Sat, and push inland into the Willamette Valley around 21z Sat-00z Sun. The latest model guidance suggests a 60-80% chance that cigs fall to MVFR along the coast during the frontal passage, and a 20-30% chance for the Willamette Valley. This system will bring light rain that is not expected to impact visibility. Expect winds to turn westerly/ southwesterly after 18z Sat with the frontal passage, and strengthen to around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt at any given terminal through the afternoon.

Notes: Wind at KHIO will be unavailable overnight between 04Z and 13Z. The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option. The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. As it is not maintained locally by the National Weather Service, there is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR thresholds through the TAF period, with cigs lowering to low-end VFR late morning/early afternoon Saturday. East winds around 8-12 kt continue through 18z Sat, then shift southwesterly in the afternoon with the frontal passage. Southwest winds Saturday afternoon could gust between 20-25 kt. Latest guidance suggests a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs between 21z Sat-00z Sun. -Alviz

MARINE
High pressure dissipates tonight and a weak front moves inland Saturday. Main impact will be increasing winds which has initiated a Small Craft Advisory through Sunday morning. Winds become northerly and will persist through mid-week. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.

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