Monday, June18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Cascade Locks, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 9:03PM Monday June 18, 2018 2:19 PM PDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cascade Locks, OR
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location: 45.68, -121.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 181646
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
936 am pdt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis There will be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the valley today with a greater chance of
thunderstorms over and near the cascades as an upper low moves
slowly east into idaho and then montana. Otherwise dry and warmer
weather into Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure moves over the
region. A disturbance crosses the region Wed night bringing a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region, and then cooler
weather follows for the latter part of the week.

Short term Today through Wednesday night... Visible and ir
satellite imagery shows considerable mid and high level debris clouds
rotating around the upper low over idaho and moving east into the
willamette valley. These clouds will delay heating today but i
expect some of these clouds to dissipate late this morning and into
the early afternoon. There is also a weak southwest marine push
along the coast and into the southern willamette valley
this morning. The flow aloft is not quite as easterly today as it was
yesterday with steering flow to any convective cells that develop
being more northerly today. There is a bit stronger inversion this
morning as seen in the sle sounding under the influence of the
southwest marine push but mid levels remain pretty unstable.

Convective allowing models do show some convection making it to the
eastern portion of the northern willamette valley. SREF calibrated
thunderstorms probabilities are int he chance category over the
cascades... Especially in the SW washington cascades... But fall off
to less than 10 percent over most of the valleys today. We will
continue the slight chance of thunderstorms for the willamette
valley, but the threat does not look as great for today as yesterday
and expect most storms will be confined to the cascades and foothills
in the late afternoon and evening.

The temperature forecast for today will be tricky as the mid and high
level moisture is going to have an impact on surface heating this
morning and the marine push is also restraining the temperature rise
this morning. However, the surface flow weakens this afternoon and
if debris clouds break up it still will be a warm day as suggested
by warming 850mb temperatures. Coastal areas will remain in the cool
marine air today. Schneider
remainder of previous discussion follows...

the chances for showers or thunderstorms over the cascades is
considerably lower Tue as the upper ridge moves across the region.

Model 850 mb temps peak on the order of 18c Tue afternoon, which
coupled with a weak low level wind field should support temps around
90 for highs Tue afternoon.

On Wed the upper ridge moves east of the cascades, but a shortwave
approaching the coast amplifies the pattern a bit. This allows temps
to warm a few more degrees, and by afternoon a flow backing to the
south begins to spread a more unstable air mass up from the south.

Will add a chance for thunderstorms to the cascades for the
afternoon, then chances for showers and thunderstorms spread west
into the willamette valley as significant shortwave lifts up into
southern oregon.

Long term Thursday through Sunday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. It looks like the models have changed again for
the latter part of the week. The 12z GFS and the 12z euro both are
showing a trough moving into the area. However, they differ in
positioning and orientation. The GFS shows a fairly deep trough
entering into the area, but keeping the area dry through the end of
the week. The euro shows a negatively tilted shallow trough, but
increasing pops for the majority of the area through Fri morning.

The models both have onshore flow staying constant, which looks to
cool down the area for the latter part of the week into the weekend.

For the weekend both models see a ridge developing towards the start
of sat, and becoming the dominate feature for the rest of the
weekend, keeping the area on the cooler and drier side. The GFS is
showing a fairly strong ridge becoming established from a high
pressure system located near the central california coast. The euro
on the other hand has a shortwave ridge sliding in from a muddled
high located farther off the california coast.

One thing to note is that the start of next week, both models are
showing a low originating from the gulf of alaska. This has the
potential to bring some precip into the area, but currently it is
hard to say if this will happen. 42

Aviation High-level convective debris clouds will persist over
the cascades and eastern portions of the interior lowlands today.

But conditions to remainVFR for the next 24 hrs. We are again
expecting some scattered thunderstorms to develop over the
cascades this afternoon and evening. There is also a slight
chance that a couple may form over the interior lowlands during
the late afternoon, but the set up does not look quite as
favorable as yesterday.

Meanwhile, at the coast, ifr marine stratus will slowly burn back
away from shore though the day. ExpectVFR conditions for kast by
midday. Konp will likely keep stratus well into the afternoon,
but they should see a few hours ofVFR during the late
afternoon early evening. Stratus will push back into the coast
this evening and expect ifr to persist overnight into tue

Kpdx and approaches...VFR the next 24 hours with variable mid
and high clouds over the cascades. There is a slight chance that
a shower or thunderstorm may form somewhere around the terminal
during the late afternoon. Pyle

Marine Pressure gradients over the waters will remain weak as
low pressure over british columbia gradually sinks south over the
inland pac NW early this week. Our typical northerly flow pattern
returns Wednesday and continues through the weekend, with high
pressure over the NE pac and thermal low pressure over northern

Seas will hover around 6 to 8 ft through Monday, but should fall
to around 5 ft by Tuesday, and remain there through the end of
the week. 64 pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 7 am to
11 am pdt this morning.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 65 mi50 min 63°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Ellsworth, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 12:08 AM PDT     7.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM PDT     8.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM PDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 12:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:58 AM PDT     8.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:50 PM PDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.