Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:16PM Friday May 24, 2019 7:01 PM EDT (23:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:36AMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 358 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201905250400;;397683 FZUS53 KAPX 241958 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 358 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-250400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241950
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
350 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 327 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

The marginal risk...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms tonight run a marginal
risk of becoming severe. The most likely thing expected would be
general thunderstorms with wind gusts of 35-45 mph, and small hail.

However, there is a small threat that a thunderstorm could become
severe (>60 mph >1" hail).

Pattern synopsis forecast... The warm front looks to have moved into
the region but has been stymied from moving much farther north by
the convection that has moved along it since this morning. This has
also produced cloud cover that has been able to keep daytime heating
down, and with the warm front well to the south, the dewpoint
remains around 50. The warm front is expected to move a little more
north, allowing some of the warm sector to move into lower michigan.

The soundings from the models show strong sfc based inversions with
some limited elevated convection overnight, through at least
09z sat. After 09z sat, the cold front begins to cross the region
pushing the warm air southeast. However, there is a 30-40kt llj
around 850 mb that will head into the warm front overnight and push
east across the lower peninsula, primarily south of m-55, and
possibly us-10.

Primary forecast concerns... With all of the ingredients, it looks
like the best area for severe convection will be south of us-10 as
the LLJ and the warm front move east through the evening and
overnight. Based on this, think that our chance for severe
convection will be late as the LLJ warm front tries to get the
northern end of the line of convection to push north of m-55. Not
impossible, but think that trying to get severe north of m-72 and m-
32 will be difficult with the sfc based inversion, and based on the
mode of convection that has moved through the region today. If the
line gets organized south of us, then we will expect stratiform rain
with embedded thunder that would blow north off of the storms. It
could become a heavy rain situation, which we also stand at a
marginal chance (5-10%) for exceeding flash flood guidance.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 327 pm edt Fri may 24 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal. A few thunderstorms remain
possible Saturday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: anomalously strong upper level ridge and
attendant very warm air remains anchored across the SE states into
the gulf, with 594 dm h5 heights observed on a couple gulf states
12z soundings this morning. In the wake of yesterdays system, upper
level ridging has managed to build up through the great lakes over
the last 24 hours or so. Upstream, larger scale troughiness is
bottled up across the western CONUS with short-wave energy and
attendant surface low pressure advancing up through the dakotas
heading toward canada. In between, strong deep layer S SW flow has
spread low-mid level warm moist air up through the midwest and just
now pivoting into the western southern great lakes region. Active
weather has will continue along this axis heading into the weekend.

Through the upcoming holiday weekend, strong upper ridge will remain
anchored across the SE gulf coast states through the entire weekend
and into early next week. Initial short-wave energy surface low
moving through the northern plains today will get shunted up through
the far NW great lakes and into ontario through Saturday while
attending surface cold front slowly sags down through northern
michigan... And upper level heights across the great lakes get
knocked back down a few ticks. High pressure settles in for Sunday
and into the first half of memorial day. But another wave of low
pressure ejects out of the plains and through the lower lakes region
along the stalling front, bringing rain chances back to the region
for later Monday and Monday night.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: minimal. Lingering shower
chances Saturday.

Short-wave and surface low pressure will be crossing up through the
far NW great lakes into ontario Saturday morning with a cold front
trailing down through the midwest and surface warm front lifting up
through northern michigan. Showers and some thunderstorms will
probably be ongoing early Saturday morning across lower michigan as
low-mid level moisture axis continues to spread into the region on a
stout low level jet. Moisture axis and LLJ will eventually fold back
into southern lower michigan with the majority of showers storms
diminishing as we get into the afternoon.

Meanwhile, non-descript surface cold front will eventually sag down
through northern michigan late in the afternoon into the evening
ushering in cooler air heading into Sunday. But with cooling aloft
and lingering low level moisture daytime heating, soundings and model
instability forecasts show several hundred j kg MLCAPE Saturday
afternoon, and suggests the possibility for a few more showers
thunderstorms later in the afternoon into the evening as the front
moves through. We are not outlooked for any severe storm threat. But
with strong mid level flow and 0-6 km bulk shear values in excess of
40 knots supportive of organized updrafts, for any storms that
might develop it's something we will have to keep an eye on.

High pressure builds back into the region for Sunday into early
Monday. Still think we will have at least a fair amount of sunshine
on Sunday although with continuing weather off to our south, there
may be some mid and high cloud cover around. Back into the below
normal column for temperatures on Sunday with readings in the middle
60s to lower 70s. Monday begins quiet. But another round of showers
will be moving into the region later in the day (see below).

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 327 pm edt Fri may 24 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal. An overall wet and cool-ish
week ahead.

Northern michigan will remain on the northern periphery of ridging
anchored over the SE gulf coast states through at least midweek with
more of less zonal flow across the great lakes and stalled boundary
draped across the lower lakes ohio valley region. Aforementioned low
pressure ejecting out of the plains along the boundary is still
looking to bring a round of rainfall through the region Monday night
into Tuesday, with another wave and round of showers later Tuesday
into Wednesday. Longer range guidance today continues to advertise a
fairly substantial closed low and core of cold air dropping down out
of canada into the great lakes for the latter half of the week.

Guidance (ecmwf in particularly) is not quite as cold in great lakes
vs yesterdays solutions. But regardless... More shower potential
while temperatures get knocked back to several degrees below normal
to bring a close to meteorological "spring" 2019.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 153 pm edt Fri may 24 2019
main concerns for the TAF sites tonight will be the thunderstorms
that move into the region, but first low level wind shear (llws).

Clouds have been blowing off convection downstate, into N lower
this afternoon, while upstream, in wisconsin, low clouds have
stayed in the region.

There is an inversion that is expected to strengthen into the
night, this will produce the first of the concerns, llws. The
it looks like around 2000 ft, there will be a 30-35+ kt wind out
of the sw. This will continue from about midnight lt and continue
until around 12z Sat when the cold front moves through and allows
the wind to mix out.

However, in the midst of the llws, thunderstorms will be possible
as area of instability moves through the region. It is possible
that the lightning thunder will remain south of m-55, although
rain, possibly heavy could be an issue overnight.

With the rain and inversion, expect the low clouds (ifr cigs) and
some MVFR ifr vsbys until the cold front moves through on
Saturday, allowing high pressure will remain over the region at
least through Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 327 pm edt Fri may 24 2019
winds will remain variable at 10 knots or less as the pressure
gradient remains rather slack around the low pressure tonight.

Winds will increase, but looks to remain below small craft
overnight. A cold front will move through the upper great lakes
Saturday morning, and with the cooler air and tightened gradient,
small craft winds will be expected for Saturday afternoon. Then
high pressure builds into the region Saturday night and drop off
again and remain below small craft criteria through Sunday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jl
short term... Ba
long term... Ba
aviation... Jl
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi91 min E 15 50°F 43°F45°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi31 min SE 8 G 11 47°F 49°F1018.9 hPa
45175 21 mi22 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 46°F 45°F1 ft1019 hPa45°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi31 min SE 8 G 9.9 52°F 45°F1018.6 hPa50°F
45022 40 mi21 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 42°F 40°F1 ft1018.3 hPa41°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi31 min SE 6 G 9.9 46°F1019.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi31 min SE 6 G 11 56°F 43°F1018.9 hPa47°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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SE12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi65 minENE 710.00 miFair55°F49°F80%1018.3 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi66 minE 12 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F45°F83%1018.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi67 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F50°F67%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NW13N9NW9NW9N12N8N11NW7W4NW5NW3W3N4CalmE4SE6SE6SE7SE9
G14
SE10SE14S12SE13
1 day agoSE21
G27
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SE13E12E9
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E14E13SE11SE10SE10SE7SE10E6S4S5W6W7W14SW10
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N9N5N5NW15
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2 days agoN9N7N5CalmSE3SE3SE6SE5E7E9E5SE7E9E11SE13SE13SE18
G24
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G27
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SE25
G36

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.