Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday November 18, 2017 10:42 AM EST (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 337 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Today..Light winds becoming north 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the morning. Areas of fog and drizzle early in the morning, then scattered rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Numerous snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201711181645;;583827 FZUS53 KAPX 180837 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 337 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-181645-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug

Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181206
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
706 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 316 am est Sat nov 18 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal. Periods of rain, mixed with
a little wet snow in spots today, gradually turning to nnw NW flow
lake effect snows in gusty winds.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
positively tilted upper troughing was across the central conus, with
several weaker shortwaves ejecting through the mississippi valley
and great lakes. One of these waves was crossing us now, taking with
it, an expansive area of rain (mixed with a little snow from eastern
upper down into the higher terrain of NRN lower). Left behind was
grunge. Fairly thick low level moisture stratus, areas of drizzle
and some light fog, all out ahead of a cold front that was pressing
into lake michigan. Spottier reflectivities were seen within the
weaker vorticity across wi il, but precipitation becomes more
expansive again out in iowa ne. This is associated with developing
low pressure ahead of a more pronounced shortwave coming out of

As the deeper moisture is stripped out aloft this morning, see no
reason why periods of light rain drizzle will end. This light rain
will gradually increase in coverage through the day, especially in
the SE cwa, as the aforementioned developing low pressure in the
central conus, deepens while lifting through SE lower michigan. This
low pressure will also help the cold front from over lake michigan
gradually sink in from the NW nnw, which will allow for some more
wet snows mix in on the NRN periphery of the precipitation shield.

As the low pressure crosses into the eastern great lakes tonight,
it'll drag the cold front over lake michigan through the region,
with strong cold advection and gusty NW winds developing, along with
lake effect rain and snows changing to all snow overnight. The
convective depth of the bl is not overly impressive for most of the
night, with inversion heights struggling to reach 5kft by daybreak,
but the general light lake effect will get a little bit of a boost
from a shortwave and added moisture late tonight. Can only foresee
maybe a few tenths of snow today in the higher terrain, with and
inch or two around the gtv bay region overnight.

Highs today in the 35 to 40f range for most areas, with lows tonight
in the low to mid 20s, slightly warmer in the gtv bay region.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 316 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Snow showers Sunday will give way to a dry and milder Monday...

high impact weather potential: accumulating snow in the lake
superior lake michigan snow belts Sunday.

Pattern forecast: progressive upper level pattern in place as height
falls progress eastward from western north america... With a
splitting trough on its heels over the eastern pacific... Part of a
rather unbalanced four wave hemispheric pattern. Short wave
troughing (actually consisting of two separate potential vorticity
anomalies) will slide across the great lakes ohio valley today and
tonight... With a secondary short wave trough zipping across michigan
Sunday... Followed by another PV anomaly Sunday night with height
rises building in for Monday.

At the surface... A cold front was advancing into the upper great
lakes to the north of a broad area of low pressure stretching from
eastern colorado into western missouri. A consolidated surface low
will arise from this later this morning... Deepening as it tracks
into the lower great lakes tonight and into quebec new england
Sunday. Cold cyclonic flow will follow in its wake across michigan
tonight into Sunday... Before low level anticyclonic flow warm
advection arrives Sunday night associated with developing height

Primary forecast concerns: lake snow showers will be ongoing Sunday
morning... As inversion heights are given a boost by passing synoptic
wave (inversion bases in the vicinity of 750mb with a decent
dendritic growth layer). Have boosted pops above what the consensus
forecast was giving (utilized SREF pops to account for this)...

backing winds during the afternoon expected to shift bands to a more
westerly component (and probably shift north of the m-72 corridor by
late in the day) as inversion heights drop below 800mb. But passage
of next short wave trough will deepen the moisture profile once
again... So will need to linger snow chances into Sunday night
though expect precipitation to diminish by Monday morning.

Snowfall amounts during the day are expected to be relatively
light... Though do feel that there will be some decent bands going
Sunday morning in the lake superior lake michigan snow belts... And
can see 2-3+ inch amounts in spots over northeast chippewa county
and along the us-131 corridor in northwest lower by late Sunday
afternoon when snow shower intensity should lessen. Snow totals of
3-4+ inches will be possible between tonight and Sunday in these
aforementioned areas.

Temperatures expected to return to more normal mid november levels
Monday (upper 30s-mid 40s).

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 316 am est Sat nov 18 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Temperature roller coaster will roll on during thanksgiving
week... With another strong push of cold air expected to arrive
Tuesday (with the possibility of early daytime highs followed by
falling afternoon temperatures). This will set the stage for more
lake induced snow showers heading into the big thanksgiving travel
day on Wednesday (but doesn't look like a big deal at this point).

Thanksgiving day itself looks dry... With more precipitation possible
on Friday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 703 am est Sat nov 18 2017
rain will expand across NRN lower michigan through the day with
the best coverage expected to be along and south of a line from
mbl to apn. CIGS will be lifting out of ifr to MVFR through the
day behind a cold front, while lake effect rain and snow showers
develop late in the day and especially through the night, along
with gusty NW winds. No significant snowfall rates expected and
only an inch or two accumulation in and around tvc mbl by the end
of the TAF period.

Issued at 316 am est Sat nov 18 2017
lower end gale force gusts are expected for late this afternoon and
tonight for much of lake michigan and huron. This is due to a
tightening pressure gradient on the backside of developing low
pressure that crosses the SRN and eastern great lakes. Solid
advisory winds elsewhere. NW winds taper off some heading through
Sunday afternoon and night while also backing more out of the west,
but gusty conditions still expected due to deep overlake
instability. Periods of rain today, particularly closer to saginaw
bay, will eventually turn to lake effect rain and snow showers
late this afternoon through tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lhz345-346.

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est Sunday for

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 11 am est Sunday for

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lmz341.

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est Sunday for

Ls... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... Jpb
long term... Jpb
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd

Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi49 minN 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast36°F35°F96%999.3 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi49 minN 9 G 157.00 miOvercast37°F37°F100%999.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi49 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast36°F35°F97%1000.4 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS12
1 day agoN11
2 days agoS12SE10SE10S8SE9SE11SE11SE8S4CalmCalmCalmN6NW7W9NW15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.