Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 8:06PM Thursday March 30, 2017 2:43 AM EDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 10:21PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1023 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am edt Thursday through Thursday evening...
Overnight..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow and rain. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201703301030;;290500 FZUS53 KAPX 300223 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1023 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ345-301030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 300345
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1145 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Update
Issued at 1021 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
high pressure remains centered NE of michigan... While vertically
stacked low pressure is very slowing moving into missouri. Dry
easterly low level flow across michigan continues to erode the ne
edge of deeper moisture/widespread precip developing over southern
wisconsin... Southern lake michigan and far SW lower michigan well
ne of the low center. No precip has reached the ground as of yet
across our CWA despite increasing radar returns across the sw. Do
expect increasing low level moisture will eventually win out over
the persistent dry low level easterly flow... Resulting in the
gradual development of precip from SW to NE across areas mainly
south of a line from around tvc to osc overnight. Precip will make
further northward progress throughout the day Thursday. Have made
some adjustments to timing of increasing pops overnight to
slightly delay the onset. Precip type is a big question as
well... With overnight lows hovering a few degrees either side of
freezing... Along with some cooling taking place aloft. Model
soundings still support a mix of rain and/or snow... With mainly
snow for the higher elevations. Any snow accumulations will be
very minor... Well under an inch... Thru the overnight hours. The
rest of our CWA will remain dry but cloudy thru tonight.

Near term (tonight through Thursday)
issued at 347 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Wintry mix arrives tonight and Thursday...

high impact weather potential... Rain/snow mix. Light snow accums
parts of northern lower mi thu.

1002mb low pressure is near wichita ks. This low will deepen
somewhat as it moves slowly ene, reaching central il by Thu evening.

Associated cirrus is already invading northern mi, and there's lots
of virga to our sw. Actual precip is in northern il/southern mn/much
of iowa. Increasing ascent will eventually overcome dry low level
air (see 18z observed apx sounding, with near 40c dew pt depression
at 700mb). Precip trends are the main concern.

Model solutions are still all over the map; somewhat disturbing for
an event that will be starting shortly. Aspects of gem/gfs are
preferred, with a more gradual northward expansion of the precip
shield into northern mi. Nam GOES nuts with f-gen related precip by
late tonight. This looks much too agressive, given the impressive,
pre-existing wedge of dry air, and increasing low-level easterly
winds that will reinforce that dry air. A wide range of warm-nose
solutions exists as well for Thursday; a compromise was followed.

Tonight... Upstream returns in wi/mn are showing classic banded, f-
gen signatures. Locally intense (but transient) precip rates could
overcome our dry air earlier than previously progged. Note that
these bands are migrating northward with time, which should preclude
qpf like the NAM progs tonight. But still, some spotty precip could
perhaps make it down to terra firma in SW sections as soon as around
midnight. Those chancy pops will make slow northward progress
overnight, and by late in the overnight likely pops will ease into
the cad/mbl area. Little if any precip near/north of glr.

P-type will depend on the surface-based melting layer. And thus will
be somewhat elevation dependent, snow in the interior and rain closer
to the lakes. As the night proceeds and the bl cools slightly, p-
type will tend to favor snow, though will still keep things mixy
thru daybreak near saginaw bay and along the immediate lake mi
coast. Any snow will be wet/sloppy, with surface temps barely
dropping down to freezing. And with only light QPF progged, accums
thru daybreak will be a dusting at most.

Min temps upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday... Steady theta-e advection will help precip expand
northward, and otherwise become more extensive. Categorical pops
will arrive in southern areas toward late morning, and chancy pops
will reach eastern upper mi late in the day. Precip rates will also
steadily ramp up as the day proceeds (18z-00z QPF nears half an inch
in the far se).

Two p-type determinants: the still-vexing bl (which should get a bit
warmer again via diurnal effects) and, in southern areas, the
arrival of a warm nose aloft. P-type will start the morning as
mostly snow, but as the morning proceeds rain will become more
prevalent. Brief window exists for snow accums in the morning,
mainly in s-central sections. Will allow for around an inch of snow
from cad over to gladwin and W branch. In the afternoon, the arrival
of the warm nose aloft will turn the far south to definite plain
rain, while allowing for the development of a sleet zone that may
reach tvc and W branch by late in the day. Meanwhile, north of there,
the bl will start to cool again, and by late afternoon snow will
again become a more dominant p-type. Afternoon snow accums will be
less than an inch. Not anticipating much fzra thru 00z, as surface
temps should be above freezing where the warm nose is present.

Max temps upper 30s.

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday)
issued at 347 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Wintry mix of precipitation Thursday night...

high impact weather potential: mixed precipitation event Thursday
night could result in some tricky driving conditions.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: well developed split flow regime
continues to dominate the noam upper air pattern. Southern stream
portion of this regime by far the most active, with most prominent
feature within it being strong shortwave trough rotating across the
southern plains. Moisture feed out ahead of this system is rather
impressive, with 60 to 70 degree dewpoints spreading in off the gulf
of mexico and attendant precipitable water values in excess of one
inch. While in large part the vast majority of the dynamics
associated with this southern stream wave will pass by to our south
in the coming days, its attendant moisture plume will not as strong
upper jet dynamics and subtle northern stream wave interaction work
in tandem to bring its moisture north. Marginally cold enough air
overhead as this moisture arrives definitely sets the stage for some
interesting precipitation type concerns Thursday and Thursday night.

Pattern looks to quiet down for a time thereafter as high pressure
once again builds into the area.

Primary forecast concerns: precipitation type and amounts Thursday
night.

Details: forcing will be maximized early Thursday evening as area
centers under right entrance region upper jet dynamics. Best forcing
expected to remain largely south of the big bridge, and collocated
nicely with northward surging moisture plume (precipitable water
values pushing three quarters of an inch across southern areas).

Expect a large area of precipitation to be ongoing Thursday evening,
especially across northern lower michigan. Intensity of
precipitation should wane overnight as best forcing is lost and with
strong support for a scouring out of mid level moisture. Now, what
type this precipitation takes is a much more formidable challenge.

Trends have been for a bit more aggressive push of an elevated warm
nose (centered roughly within h7-h8 layer). Evaporational cooling
potential will also be well lost by then, and feel abundant clouds
and maintenance of east flow will keep surface temperatures near or
slightly above freezing through the overnight. Loss of that mid
level moisture also complicates things, with guidance derived
soundings definitely showing the development of a drizzle scenario
heading through the overnight. Given these trends, have trended the
forecast more toward a wintry mix/light rain idea, with more snow
north and all rain south. Overall snow/sleet accumulations should
remain light given marginal surface temperatures and a waning of
precipitation intensity. Far bigger concern is for freezing
rain/drizzle as those surface temperatures hover around freezing and
solar insolation is lost. Feeling is temperatures will remain too
marginal for any significant impacts, but definitely something we
will continue to monitor.

Deformation on northern extent of southern stream wave may linger
some precipitation across parts of the area on Friday, with a
warming boundary layer switching any lingering mix over to just
plain rain heading through the morning. High pressure will bring a
return to dry weather Friday night and Saturday. First day of april
solar insolation looks to do a number on temperatures Saturday, with
widespread highs in the 40s and lower 50s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 347 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
high impact weather potential...

it appears by Sunday, we will have turned the corner temperature-
wise, and be in for at least a few days of warmer than normal
conditions. The upper level pattern would indicate a "dirty zonal"
flow... With some disturbances passing through periodically. Most of
this action stays suppressed to the south to keep much of the period
dry. However, some guidance hints at moisture taking a run at the
area around Tuesday. Much uncertainty exists though... So we'll keep
an eye on it. Regardless, with all the warm air being advertised,
ptype issues shouldn't be a problem.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
vfr mid cloud CIGS will gradually lower overnight into Thursday as
chances of precip increase in response to moistening of low
levels ahead of low pressure developing over the plains. A mix of
rain and snow is expected to expand northeastward overnight into
Thursday before precip changes over to all rain by around midday
for mbl and tvc. Mixed precip will likely hang on thru Thursday
and into Thursday evening for apn and pln. East winds will
strengthen on Thursday... With gusts to 15 to 25 kts expected by
midday.

Marine
Issued at 347 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
easterly winds will increase tonight into Thursday, ahead of low
pressure moving slowly NE from SE ks. Small craft advisories will
likely be reached on many waters tonight into thu, and will be
issuing some of those shortly.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for lhz345-
347>349.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mlr
near term... Jz
short term... Msb
long term... Kab
aviation... Mlr
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi44 min E 8.9 G 9.9 33°F 1024.1 hPa (-0.7)27°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi44 min E 6 G 7 32°F 1024.5 hPa (-0.7)27°F
WSLM4 40 mi44 min E 19 33°F 1024.5 hPa (-0.6)28°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi44 min E 1.9 G 2.9 1025.7 hPa (-0.7)
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi44 min ESE 1 G 1.9 31°F 1025.5 hPa (-0.7)25°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi50 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F24°F76%1024.7 hPa
Mackinac Island - Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi69 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F29°F90%1025.1 hPa
Pellston, Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County Airport, MI21 mi50 minE 610.00 miFair35°F21°F57%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N4CalmNW4N3NE8NE7E8E5E103SE12SE10SE10S6S5S3CalmE4NE5E5E6E6
1 day agoN5N5CalmN5N3N4N4NE6NW5N5N4CalmNW6NW9N11N8N10N6NW5NW3CalmW5W6N9
2 days agoNE3CalmN4N4N3NW3NW5NW7NW10NW7NW10NW10NW7NW10NW7NW8NW6NW5NW6N8NW7NW6N8N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.