Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:31PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1030 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201809242230;;138112 FZUS53 KAPX 241430 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-242230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241429
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1029 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Update
Issued at 1015 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
focus for this morning's update revolves primarily around slowly
diminishing cloud cover across northern lower mi. Overnight
stratus deck remains slow to rotate northward and gradually
diminish with high end ifr MVFR continuing across the higher
terrain of northern lower and much eastern upper. Have slowed
clearing by a couple of hours in the aforementioned locations
before stratus is expected to increase once again from southeast
to northwest across the forecast area (already evident on visible
satellite across much of southeast michigan) given anticipated
increasing low-level warm advection across the area as the day
progresses.

Otherwise, inherited forecast for the remainder of the day looks
on track with high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s - low
70s area-wide... Some 5 or so degrees above late september normals.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 250 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Shower chances on the increase...

high impact weather potential: dangerous swimming conditions on the
beaches of northern lake huron.

Pattern synopsis forecast: surface features responding to an
increasingly aggressive upper level flow regime, as elongated trough
axis diving out of the rockies is resulting in a steady east retreat
of southeast canada high pressure. Developing cold front back across
the high plains only intensifying overhead warm air advection
between it and that retreating high. East winds, at times a bit
gusty, already showing signs of veering more southeast, with this
slow veering response expected to continue right through today and
tonight. Earlier passing weak cold front has essentially dissipated,
as indicated by observations showing a nearly non-existent
temperature dewpoint gradient across our area. Deepest moisture
plumes well displaced to our south and west, with our moisture all
relegated to the low levels as evident by ifr MVFR producing stratus
plume rotating across eastern upper and northeast lower michigan (no
doubt partially supported by some lake huron moisture contribution).

Warm, moist (low level) advection only intensifies with time today
and tonight as that steadily sharpening trough axis rotates into the
northern plains by Tuesday morning, all-the-while secondary weaker
wave pivots across southeast michigan into ontario overnight.

Arrival of deeper moisture argues for a least some light rain
showers, especially heading through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: cloud temperature trends today
and addressing that light shower potential tonight.

Details: first order of business, expect that low cloud deck to
rotate north and mix out this morning, allowing most areas to see
quite a bit of sunshine by early this afternoon. Focus then directed
to northward surge of low level moisture currently sitting across
the lower ohio valley. Expect low clouds to rotate south to north
later this afternoon, spreading across all the area heading through
tonight. Much tougher call with regards to rain chances tied to this
low level moisture plume, with developing upstream cold front
dynamics remaining off to our west until Tuesday, and all better
forcing with that southern lakes wave remaining to our south. Cross
sectional and guidance derived sounding analysis shows minimal mid
and upper level moisture through the period. With that said, that
same analysis shows a deep enough saturated low level layer to
support areas of drizzle and very light showers, with the best
coverage across the southeast half of the area. Rain amounts tonight
expected to remain light, largely under a quarter of an inch.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 250 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Showers and storms through Tuesday night...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible later Tuesday
afternoon and evening across northern lower, some of which could be
strong to severe.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Warm advection and isentropic lift
regime will push off to the east Tuesday morning as a deepening
upper trough advances into the upper midwest. A corresponding cold
front will cross eastern upper through the day but make slow headway
into northwest lower by evening. A more potent wave of mid level
energy and an attendant developing surface low will lift northeast
along the front late afternoon into the overnight as it eventually
pushes through northeast lower. Strong cold air advection will
develop behind the front with high pressure slowly building into the
area on Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... Potential for some strong to severe
storms later Tuesday afternoon and evening over northern lower,
particularly down towards saginaw bay.

While deeper low level moisture will rapidly be stripped out from
the column Tuesday morning, a ribbon of more favorable moisture will
accompany the front as it gradually encroaches by evening. Pwats are
progged to recover from <1" to ~1.3" fairly quickly with surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Instability will be more uncertain, though
guidance does suggest clouds will scatter out a bit over northeast
lower, allowing for some more Sun and destabilization there
(downsloping will also promote comparatively warmer highs there).

With some warmer air aloft and resultant weak mid level lapse rates,
there will be some capping to overcome... At least until the front
pushes through towards evening. Instability looks marginal to modest
at best, with guidance suggesting anywhere from 500 to 1000 j kg
mlcape... Highest over northeast lower. Deep layer shear continues
to look impressive, ranging from 40 to 50+ knots out ahead of the
cold front. Low level wind profiles are largely unidirectional with
linear 0-3km hodographs showing ever-so-slight clockwise curvature.

This will be supportive for some organized convection, perhaps
including a supercell or two, as the wave of low pressure lifts
through in the late afternoon to evening hours. The 24.00z 3km nam
paints an interesting picture to that effect, showing a cluster of
cells (some discrete) developing in the warm sector and lifting ne
along and south of a line from roughly htl to apn. Primary threat
would be damaging straight line winds given dcape up to 1000 j kg.

Wouldn't rule out a tornado given marginal 0-1km shear and helicity
and fairly low LCL heights. SPC has upgraded the day 2 convective
outlook to place most of northern lower in a marginal risk with a
slight risk just south of m-72. But it should be restated that
considerable uncertainty still remains with regard to how much we
will destabilize Tuesday afternoon, and this will strongly dictate
how convection pans out. For now will add severe wording to hwo, but
stay tuned for updates.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 250 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Surface ridging will quickly pass east of the area by Thursday, with
an active upper level pattern continuing thereafter for the
remainder of the week. Low pressure trekking across ontario will
drag a cold front through the region Thursday night into Friday,
ushering in a cooler 850mb airmass for the weekend. Additional weak
mid-level disturbances may trigger a few showers at times through
Saturday, while a more potent wave is progged to track through late
Saturday into Sunday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 654 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
area of MVFR ifr producing terrain induced stratus expected to
gradually mix out this morning, leaving behindVFR conditions for
much of today. Band of deeper low level moisture arrives from
south to north late today, and especially tonight. This will bring
another round of stratus, likely producing more MVFR to ifr
conditions. Showers are also possible with this overnight
moisture, although intensity of any rain looks to remain light.

Expect mist and shallow fog to develop later tonight, restricting
visibilities a bit at some of the TAF locations. Southeast winds,
at times a bit gusty, veer more south with time through tonight.

Marine
Issued at 250 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
gusty winds will continue as they slowly veer more
southeast and south today and tonight. Widespread small craft
advisory conditions expected, excluding the nearshore waters along
northwest lower michigan. Pressure gradient does relax some
heading through later tonight and Tuesday, likely allowing both
winds and waves to subside below advisory criteria. Dry weather
today gives way to increasing shower chances tonight and Tuesday.

May even hear a rumble of thunder or two by later Tuesday, with
any of these storms capable of producing some brief gusty winds.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz008-
015-017-018-024-030-036-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lsz321-322.

Update... Mg
near term... mb
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi40 min ESE 18 58°F 60°F53°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi40 min SSE 16 G 23 62°F 60°F1021.5 hPa53°F
45175 21 mi20 min SE 12 G 19 62°F 71°F2 ft1022 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi40 min SE 17 G 21 57°F 62°F1023.4 hPa56°F
45022 40 mi30 min ESE 12 G 18 64°F 66°F1 ft1022.6 hPa55°F
WSLM4 40 mi40 min ESE 6 61°F 61°F1022.2 hPa51°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi40 min SE 18 G 25 57°F1022.7 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi46 min SE 12 G 22 58°F 60°F1023.7 hPa51°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi15 minESE 11 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F54°F69%1022 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi15 minE 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast60°F50°F71%1022.3 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi16 minSSE 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F54°F65%1022 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11E12E11E15E14E11E11E14
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1 day agoSW9W9W6
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SW7SW64S4CalmS3S3S4SW3S4CalmSW5N6N4E3E6E7NE10E12
2 days agoSW18
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NW9NW93CalmCalmW3CalmSW4SW53SW5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.