Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 9:21PM Sunday May 28, 2017 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 11:16PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 410 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201705281615;;332068 FZUS53 KAPX 280810 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ345-281615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 280753
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
353 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 352 am edt Sun may 28 2017
high impact weather potential: possible thunderstorms. Severe storms
not expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level and sfc low pressures were slowly drifting through
ontario, with it's associated cold front draped southward through mn
and the dakotas along larger scale upper troughing. Scattered
showers were common across NRN mn along the front, and ahead of a
clearly defined vorticity maximum seen on latest satellite imagery.

There was also some light rains showers that were trying to get
going along another sheared out wave lifting through the western
great lakes, with even some earlier sporadic rumbles of thunder
across eastern lake superior. Not very strong forcing across the
region, outside of dpva with the upper troughing and weakish low to
mid level warm advection, but clouds were expanding with cooling
cloud tops across NRN michigan wisconsin. All of the real active
weather was well south of us, in the deeper instability and
associated with sfc low pressure from the low to mid mississippi and
ohio river valleys.

Large scale upper troughing sharpens up through the day across the
western great lakes as the one clearly defined vorticity maximum
wraps into far western lake superior, and as another wraps back into
mn. Dpva increases across NRN michigan out ahead of the system cold
front which arrives tonight. See no reason clouds will do anything
but increase thicken up through the day and evening with showers
developing into a nice band swath just ahead of the front and upper
troughing. Instability will be lacking, with models doing what they
do best, in overdeveloping SBCAPE mlcape. Can foresee a few hundred
j kg with lapse rates aloft steepening to 6.5c km later this
afternoon evening for some embedded thunderstorms. The forcing and
deeper moisture will depart by later this evening, with the upper
low re-positioning itself over western lake superior late tonight.

Stronger energy does try to sneak in late, but any precipitation
will remain out west of NRN michigan.

High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows tonight
generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 352 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms then cooler...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms Monday afternoon,
although at this point they don't look to be severe.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The 500 mb low is over the upper great
lakes region Monday morning, and it slowly moves to the northeast to
south of james bay by Tuesday evening(00z wed), where it remains
through the night.

As with any upper level low, this will be activated by the diurnal
heating cycle, kicking off the showers and limited thunderstorms
Monday afternoon as the 500 mb temperatures fall to less then -20c
producing a mid level lapse rate (700-500 mb) of about 7 c km. We
lose the heating overnight, and with the upper low moving northeast
out of the forecast area, the rain will taper off.

Tuesday morning will start quiet enough, but showers are expected to
become scattered again as the cool air of the 500 mb low rotates
over the region, but with the center of the low now a couple hundred
miles to the ne, will expect rain showers as the mid level lapse
rates fall to around 6 c km. As the day draws to a close, and the
low moves a little more NE the rain showers will become isolated, or
even dry out Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... Considering the amount of stratocu that
should be associated with this system, the CAPE during Monday
afternoon is a few hundred j kg on both the GFS and the SREF and the
shear is less than 30 knots. So will expect that there will be some
thunder activity, but nothing severe Monday afternoon, and with the
trend of the CAPE even lower on Tuesday, that thunder is not
expected, just rain showers.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 352 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Below normal temperature trend...

high impact weather potential... None
extended (Wednesday through Saturday)... Wednesday, the upper low
continues to move ne, but a new impulse begins to dive into the weak
500 mb trough, upstream in northern manitoba. So rain will probably
move through the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, and then dry out
Wednesday night. As the low dives into the upper great lakes, the
models disagree on the evolution of the low, itself, but not the
result, rain showers Thursday afternoon. The GFS suggests the low
cuts off to the north of lake superior and continues the rain
showers into Friday morning. However, that's where the models begin
to differ. The 500 mb low on the ECMWF is north of new england,
while the GFS has it north of lake superior. The GFS produces rain
showers through the early evening, while the ECMWF is dry from the
afternoon and overnight. Saturday, rain moves up from the SW with a
secondary sfc low moving into wisconsin on the ECMWF while it
remains dry on the gfs. Not sure which model has the better
solution, so have gone closer to the gfs, being dry, so that we
don't get an overly wet forecast from the differing solutions.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 140 am edt Sun may 28 2017
generallyVFR conditions into Sunday morning with increasing amounts
of mainly mid and high clouds. Several disturbances to our west and
southwest will push into northern michigan on Sunday, resulting in
increasing showers. CIGS will generally remainVFR, potentially
dipping to MVFR during the afternoon hours as the showers become
more numerous. Low confidence non-severe thunderstorm possibility at
pln and apn on Sunday as well.

Cig forecast for Sunday evening uncertain. Trends point toward
higher CIGS (potentially even clearing), although there are some
conflicting lower cloud signals in some of the models. For now,
will show some cig improvement for the evening as the showers
gradually diminish.

Winds remain light throughout the period.

Marine
Issued at 352 am edt Sun may 28 2017
low pressure slowly drifts through ontario through Monday, with the
pressure gradient remaining loose through this evening, with
relatively light flow and developing lake breezes this afternoon.

The gradient tightens up late tonight into Monday with a chance for
some low end advisory level gusts through Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Jsl
long term... Jsl
aviation... Jrk
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi42 min SE 7 53°F 48°F47°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi42 min NNE 1 G 2.9 51°F 1008.2 hPa (-1.1)45°F
45175 21 mi12 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 51°F 50°F1009 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi42 min SSE 5.1 G 7 53°F 1008.3 hPa (-1.2)51°F
45022 40 mi22 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 51°F 45°F1010.1 hPa51°F
WSLM4 40 mi42 min SSW 6 55°F 50°F1009.2 hPa (-1.2)53°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi42 min ENE 1 G 1.9 1009.5 hPa (-0.9)
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi42 min Calm G 1 51°F 1009.3 hPa (-0.9)49°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi48 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F49°F92%1008.5 hPa
Mackinac Island - Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi67 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy49°F49°F100%1009.1 hPa
Pellston, Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County Airport, MI21 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds52°F48°F89%1009 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4W3CalmCalmS4S6S7S5S7
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S8S7S7SE8SE6CalmE3SE3E5SE7
1 day agoN7N7NW7N7N7N6E4N34SE8CalmSE4CalmSW4W7SW4SW3SW5SW4SW3S5CalmSW3Calm
2 days agoE6NE5NE8NE9NE7NE13NE9N11NE14
G21
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E8NE10E7NE6NE5NE6N6NW7NW7N7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.