Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:57PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:24 AM EDT (05:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 845 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Overnight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201903250845;;871231 FZUS53 KAPX 250045 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 845 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-250845-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250044
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
844 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

Update
Issued at 844 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019
the cold front has dropped just south of our CWA late this
evening... With rapid low level drying and weak CAA commencing
immediately behind it. Skies are quickly clearing in the wake of
the front... With locations north of m-32 generally skc attm.

Clearing from north to south will continue to take place across
the rest of northern lower michigan over the next few hours.

Clearing skies and some diminish in wind speeds will allow
overnight lows to fall mainly in the the teens across our entire
cwa... With a few colder locations as well.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 327 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019
high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A strong cold front continues to push
south through lower michigan, currently sitting roughly along us-10.

Temperatures behind the front have been slower to drop than earlier
expected, and filtered sunshine along south of m-72 has favored
warmer conditions in our southern zones this afternoon with highs
pushing the low to mid 50s in spots. Further north, a band of low
clouds accompanies and lags behind the front. Despite favorable
forcing with the front, a lack of deep layer moisture has prevented
any appreciable precipitation. Our morning sounding revealed an
airmass that was slightly drier than models had been keying on, so
it's no surprise there has hardly been any surface obs reporting
precipitation across northern michigan today. Had dialed back pops
to slight chance with the morning update, but with radar returns
still largely struggling to reach the ground early this afternoon,
have opted to yank pops and just mention a chance of flurries and
sprinkles through early evening. This would be mainly across
northeast lower. Just too much residual dry low level air, as
evidenced by surface dewpoint depressions ranging from 5 to 25
degrees from north to south.

Speaking of dry air, there is a sharp clearing trend observed across
the northern up, where an even drier airmass (pws < 0.1") is
advecting in from canada. Strong surface high pressure centered west
of hudson bay will continue to build into the upper great lakes
overnight, bringing this clearing line through the rest of the
forecast area before midnight. Falling temperatures behind the front
will gain momentum as we lose the daytime heating component late
this afternoon into evening, in tandem with more vigorous cold air
advection. Another cold late march night will be the result with low
temperatures generally ranging from around 10 to 20 degrees, and
probably dipping into the single digits in the typical colder
locales.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 327 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: moderating temperatures.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface high pressure and dry air
centered over the northern great plains will continue to ridge
through the great lakes region and progress southeastward behind a
departing cold front (mentioned in the previous forecast period)
until centered over the forecast area by Tuesday morning. A weak
clipper system begins to develop over southwestern canada and will
trek eastward behind aforementioned high pressure... Gradually
breaking down high pressure over the forecast area by Wednesday.

A bit cooler air will filter into northern michigan on northerly
winds ahead of said high pressure for Monday... With highs only
reaching into the 30s... Raised a bit with maximum mixing expected
and raised even a little more (near 40) with downsloping over the
southeastern forecast area of northern lower and the lake michigan
and lake huron shorelines of eastern upper. Wouldn't be surprised at
all if there are some higher than expected readings tomorrow
afternoon. Said high pressure will provide quiet, sunny, and
moderating daytime temperatures to northern michigan. Temperatures
will warm a bit each day after Monday... With temperatures climbing
into the low 40s Tuesday and then the mid 40s over eastern upper and
near 50 over northern lower on Wednesday. As a developing clipper
system approaches the great lakes region Wednesday it begins to
break down the high pressure overhead, moisture returns on
southwesterly winds, and chances of rain return Wednesday
afternoon evening. This will mark a change to a more active weather
pattern.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 327 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019
as mentioned above... A more active weather pattern begins. By late
week a front will stretch from the upper great lakes southwestward
into the plains, with a couple areas of low pressure trekking
through the region. Thursday will be just rain given the milder
temperatures, but colder air will return later Friday behind the
front, potentially bringing a changeover to a bit of snow Friday
night into early Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019
residual low clouds from a cold front passing thru northern
michigan will quickly diminish in the wake of that front this
evening. Clear skies are expected for the rest of tonight thru
Monday night as strong canadian high pressure and dry air thru the
column build into the great lakes region. Northerly winds around
10 kts tonight will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on Monday with a
few higher gusts possible.

Marine
Issued at 327 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019
brisk northerly winds behind a strong cold front will gradually
slacken overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Low end
advisory gusts will likely continue over the lake michigan nearshore
waters from roughly empire to manistee into the early morning hours
on Monday. Winds then pick up again out of the northwest Monday
afternoon, especially over northern lake huron where another
advisory may be needed. Otherwise dry weather and clear skies for
the start of the work week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Mk
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Mr
marine... Mk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi54 min NNW 20 27°F 12°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi36 min 23°F 33°F1025.8 hPa-7°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi36 min 23°F 34°F1023.6 hPa15°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi36 min 1024.7 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi36 min 23°F 1024.3 hPa14°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NW9
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W6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi28 minWNW 510.00 miFair22°F10°F59%1025.1 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi29 minN 810.00 miFair22°F10°F60%1025.1 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi30 minNW 610.00 miFair20°F10°F68%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW7W8W7SW6W5SW4CalmNE14NE14NE10NE10N8NE7--N14NW15
G20
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G17
NW11NW11N11NW12NW9NW9
1 day agoN5N5W4W5W4W5SW5W6W66W10
G15
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2 days agoNW10NW10
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--NW20
G28
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NW13NW12NW11--N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.