Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday November 15, 2018 10:07 PM EST (03:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 329 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Friday night...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow, drizzle and freezing drizzle after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Numerous snow showers and scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201811160430;;355987 FZUS53 KAPX 152029 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 329 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-160430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 152313
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
613 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 332 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Snow east tonight with some light snow freezing drizzle possible
elsewhere...

high impact weather potential: some accumulating snow tonight across
northeast lower... And a threat for some freezing drizzle in other
spots.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 18z surface composite analysis shows a
weak area of low pressure underneath a rather more impressive upper
level low spinning its way across southern illinois. Large warm
conveyor belt has been pushing precipitation northward across the
lower peninsula throughout the day... Leading edge of snowfall
spreading into ogemaw iosco counties as of 20z. Thicker mid high
cloud has overspread much of northern lower while eastern upper
basks in sunshine. Meanwhile... Another short wave trough was
moving southeast across minnesota with a more defined surface
reflection (1008mb over northwest ontario) with a trailing cold
front to the southwest across northwest minnesota northern south
dakota.

Will be keeping an eye on both above mentioned systems for
tonight... Upper low over illinois will move east toward the mid
atlantic overnight and open up... While upper midwest short wave
trough will move into wisconsin michigan overnight. Surface low
over northwest ontario will deepen a bit as it winds up in the
vicinity of lake superior by Friday morning.

Primary forecast concerns: precipitation with the southern system
the main issue tonight... As snow shield is expected to pivot
eastward across lower michigan... Which should keep the primary
impact over northeast lower. Snowfall should be on the wetter side
given rather deep saturated layer at or above -8c which support more
riming aggregation and potentially lower snow-liquid ratios
(probably in the 8:1 to 11:1 range or so). So although snow
amounts not likely to get out of hand (going with 1 to locally 4
inches east of a lake city-rogers city line with the 3+ inch
amounts east of a gladwin-alpena line)... Snow will be a bit on the
"greasy" side and thus likely cause travel slowdowns. Another
concern is a surge of low level moisture spreading across the
entire area while deeper moisture (at temperatures cold enough to
support ice nucleation) will be confined to northeast lower. Weak
upward motion within this moist layer raises concerns for some
drizzle freezing drizzle to develop tonight prior to deeper
moisture associated with upstream short wave trough arriving
toward daybreak. Greatest threat right now looks to be near the
anticipated back edge of the precipitation shield (running roughly
from cadillac-kalkaska-mancelona-gaylord-rogers city)... But
suspect this could occur anywhere given incomplete saturation
noted on a lot of forecast profiles overnight. So forecast wording
likely to be rather messy given the look of our hourly weather
grids in the database... Already have some mention of the threat
in the hazardous weather outlook and will continue with this.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 332 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Colder air and lake effect for the start of the weekend...

high impact weather potential... Lake effect snow probably light,
possibly moderate amounts.

Pattern synopsis forecast... 500 mb and sfc trough over wisconsin at
09z Friday is into nc lower by 12z. This ushers in the next system
of cold air and lake effect as the water temperatures are around 5c
in lake superior and 11c in N lake michigan. With the initial 850 mb
temperatures around -6c at 12z Fri will begin to see les develop,
lightly, over N lake michigan, and then better lake bands that are
connected to lake superior begin by 18z as the colder air begins to
push in from the NW on the back side of the last sfc low near the
quebec ontario border. This continues into Friday night as the 850
mb temperatures fall to around -15c over lake superior and -11c in n
lake michigan. Moisture synoptic moisture continues to be better
than 60% in the 850-700 mb layer. The only issue with this will be
the wind direction. Models are showing some brief nnw flow and then
rapid change to NW to wnw flow by 21z sat. So will be watching this,
as the wind directions will determine light to possibly moderate.

Models continue to back to the wsw or even SW in the case of the
ecmwf by 12z sun, and dry out the layer as well.

Primary forecast concerns... The concerns would be if the timing of
the front is slower initially on Friday morning is a little slower,
then the warm advection dry layers in the soundings could produce
areas of drizzle freezing drizzle for another hour or so during
morning drive time. Then the wind direction as described earlier
providing a more moderate snow band. The last concern would be the
dry air vs. The large instability (and cold temperatures) to
continue to produce minor to light snow amounts. Would think that
minor is more likely, with a low chance of light snow (1-3") amounts
as we go into Sunday morning.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 332 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

More les until Wednesday then warmer...

extended (Sunday through Thursday)... Sunday, the bubble of dry air
moves through the region, but the problem is that the ECMWF moistens
the 850-700 mb layer quicker and would begin to produce higher
amounts for Sunday afternoon. Then the models diverge on the ideas
of a system dropping out of the canadian prairies and through the n
plains. GFS would start and continue light to moderate snow Monday
night through Tuesday night, if you count the les on the back side
of the system. The ECMWF fades the system out and produces light
amounts of les depending on the wind direction. Wednesday, the winds
on both models is for the SW and the 850 mb temperatures are warming
quickly. The GFS prints out precipitation as the system moves
through james bay, but nothing on the ECMWF as the system moves
through farther north into hudson bay. Think that the GFS is
overdone even with the more southerly track, but will see as it is
day 7.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 613 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
two areas of low pressure... One tracking NE thru the ohio valley
and another swinging thru the great lakes region... Will phase over
michigan tonight into Friday. These two systems will produce
areas of snow and freezing drizzle to northern lower michigan
tonight and Friday. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and
eventually ifr as this precip continues to develop and spread
across the region. Light southeasterly winds will shift to the
west and eventually NW as the second system swings thru the
region.

Marine
Issued at 332 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
small craft advisories have been posted through tomorrow night for
most zones (though some don't begin until Friday morning)
anticipating gusty winds developing on the back side of low
pressure that will be pulling east of lake superior Friday
afternoon.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Friday for miz024-029-
030-034>036-041-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 5 am Friday to 5 am est Saturday for
lhz345.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lhz346>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 5 am Friday to 5 am est Saturday for
lmz323-342-344.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lmz341-345-346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 5 am Friday to 5 am est Saturday for
lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lsz321.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Mr
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi67 min SSE 18 35°F 41°F28°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi37 min S 7 G 8.9 34°F 38°F1010.9 hPa23°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi37 min S 12 G 18 36°F 42°F1010.6 hPa35°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi37 min SSE 7 G 11 38°F1010.7 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi37 min S 7 G 11 35°F 45°F1010.7 hPa31°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi72 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast32°F27°F85%1010.8 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi72 minSSE 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F23°F68%1010.8 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi73 minSE 5 miOvercast30°F26°F85%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from CIU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9S8S9S6S7S9S7SE8S9S8S11S12S12S11S11SE12SE13SE8SE5SE8S6S7S6
1 day agoW9W9W12W9W4W5--NE9NE5NE4NE5E4CalmSE65CalmCalmCalmSE8SE4SE4SE6SE8SE9
2 days agoNW5W7W9W8W9NW10NW10NW7W7NW8W11W15W16
G22
N9N9N10N5W13
G18
CalmW8W7W11W10W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.